Thursday, October 31, 2013

The Carbon Games


I fell into a burning ring or fire

-Johnny Cash

Fire all of your guns
Explode into space

-Steppenwolf

Greetings

      I was watching ESPN the other day  - What?  ESPN isn't appropriate?    Actually, I'll have you know that ESPN is a leading outlet for the real news.   For instance?  I'll give you for instance.  How about the ground breaking coverage of peak oil and climate change?  The Ultimate Race = Which Will End the World First?    Try to find such coverage on Fox News!  Ha!  New York Times?  I think not.
  
     Be that as it may - the show I was watching was slightly less forward thinking - but still very entertaining  - Demolition derby involving  motor homes.   If you watch it, I think you'll have to agree - pretty darn cool!.

    It got me to thinking.   A lot of entertainment happens to burn a lot of carbon.  Consider NASCAR for instance.  Its the fastest growing "sport" in America. !  Well , OK, it used to be.    But its still big.   Despite higher gas prices, people still enjoy watching cars race and crash at high speeds.  I wonder how much gas gets burned at a NASCAR event. Hmmm...

NASCAR race cars have very little in common with the car in your driveway. These vehicles have tremendously powerful engines that are not equipped with any of the devices that the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency mandates for normal cars, such as catalytic converters. Plus, they regularly reach speeds approaching 200 miles per hour (322 kilometers per hour). Because of this, a typical NASCAR race car gets about 5 miles per gallon fuel efficiency during a race that lasts for 500 miles. More than 40 cars usually compete in each NASCAR race, so 6,000 gallons (22,712 liters) of fuel or more are burned during a NASCAR event [source: Finney].

       6000 gallons!  Over a weened!   That's pretty impressive!    But can't we do better?   I think so.  This is America,  folks!

         So, in the spirit of competition  (which makes this nation great!)   I propose the Carbon Games.   A contest to see who can come up with the way to burn to most carbon. 

 Of course there would have to be a variety of categories such as:

         Fastest burn!      This of course would be the main event.    Rockets!  Flame throwers!   Explosions!   How about cars with flame throwers?  (kind a perfect combo - a two-fer!)

     Most carbon per dollar!    This would give some of your backyard inventors a decent shot.  Bonfires!    Super big slash burns!   (not that big - but nice music)

      Most artistic!    Flaming pumpkins propelled by trebuchet     and of course,    Burning Man!   (very impressive! - fire dancers, explosions burning man and his burning .....space ship, I think)

  So anyway,   I welcome your suggestions.   

   Monster Trucks, move over!  Here comes the Carbon Games!

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Getting Aopocolyptic


The ice age is coming, the sun's of an end 
Engines stop running, the wheat is growing thin 
A nuclear error but I have no fear 
Cos London is drowning and I live by the river 




Greetings


   Robert Jensen is a professor of journalism at the University of Texas.  He is a leftist, a feminist, and speak out for justice

      He is also a Christian.  And he offers an interesting view of our situiation.

     His field is clear communication.    But he also can use, Christian terminology like "revelation",  (with a modern twist). He says:

This "revelation" is simple: We've built a world based on the assumption that we will have endless energy to subsidize endless economic expansion, which was supposed to magically produce justice. That world is over, both in reality and in dreams. Either we begin to build a different world, or there will be no world capable of sustaining a large-scale human presence "

Or "end times"

"If we look honestly at the state of the world, it is difficult not to conclude that we are in end times of sorts - not the end of the physical world, but the end of the First-World way of living and the end of the systems on which that life is based."

He suggests that at this moment in history it is appropriate to be apocalyptic, but calmly so:

"A calm apocalypticism is not crazy, but rather can help us confront honestly the crises of our time and strategize constructively about possible responses. We can struggle to understand - to the best of our ability, without succumbing to magical thinking - the state of the ecosphere and the impediments to sensible action in our societies."

His message is simple:

"The big systems that structure our world, especially capitalism and the extractive economy, are incompatible with social justice and ecological sustainability. Those who have opportunities to write and speak out have a responsibility to articulate the radical analysis necessary to understand the problems and begin to identify solutions.

To think apocalyptically is not to give up on ourselves, but only to give up on the arrogant stories - religious and secular - that we modern humans have been telling about ourselves. Our hope for a decent future - indeed, any hope for even the idea of a future - depends on our ability to tell stories not of how humans have ruled the world, but how we can live in the world."

He offers a challenging view, challenging because is it clear eyed and realistic  rather than pandering to easy optimism.

"At this point in history, anything that is easy and can be achieved quickly is almost certainly insufficient and likely irrelevant in the long run. Attempting to persuade people that large-scale social change will come easily is not only insulting to their intelligence but is guaranteed to fail. If organizers can persuade people to join a movement based on promises of victories that won’t disrupt privileged lives -- victories that cannot be achieved -- the backlash is likely worse than the status quo. 

There’s one simple reason that serious change cannot be easy: We are the first species in the history of the planet that is going to have to will itself to practice restraint across the board, especially in our use of energy. Like other carbon-based creatures, we evolved to pursue energy-rich carbon, not constrain ourselves. Going against that basic fact of nature will not be easy.

,,,

If there is to be a decent future, we have to give up on the imperial fantasy of endless power, the capitalist fantasy of endless growth, the technological fantasy of endless comfort. Those systems have long been celebrated as the engines of unprecedented wealth, albeit for a limited segment of the world’s population. Instead of celebrating, we should mourn the world that these systems have created and search for something better. Systems that celebrate domination are death cults, not the basis for societies striving for justice and sustainability. 

         

     

       Here is an interview with him.   He discusses among other things , the good life, justice, affluence, population,  the message of Christianity and the reality of the corporate capitalist system,   "technological fundamentalism",  optimism and critical thinking  ; hope and ; grieving; appropriate political and community activity,  versus the "fanatical rush to solutions", understanding the problem and the source of the problem.

     Its a good interview - about an hour - well worth it.



------

Here are some of his writings.



Rationally Speaking, We Are All Apocalyptic Now

Friday, 08 February 2013 00:00By Robert JensenTruthout | Op-Ed

If we are rational and consider objective scientific evidence of environmental collapse including groundwater depletion, topsoil loss, chemical contamination, ocean dead zones, species extinction, bio-diversity reduction and climate disruption, we need to be apocalypticists, argues Robert Jensen.
We are all apocalyptic now, or at least we should be, if we are rational.
Because "apocalyptic" is typically associated with religious fanaticism and death cults - things that rational people tend not to take literally or seriously - this claim requires some explanation.
First, a definition: The term is most commonly used in reference to the Book of Revelation, also known as The Apocalypse of John, the final book of the Christian New Testament. The two terms are synonymous in their original meaning - "revelation" from Latin and "apocalypse" from Greek, both mean a lifting of the veil, a disclosure of something that had been hidden.
Second, the formulation "we are all (fill in the blank) now" has long been a way to assert that certain ideas have become the norm: "We are all Keynesians now," said Milton Friedman in 1965, for instance, or to express solidarity: "We are all New Yorkers now," said many non-New Yorkers after 9/11.
Rather than claiming divine inspiration, we can come to greater clarity about the desperate state of the ecosphere and its human inhabitants through evidence and reason. It is time for a calm, measured apocalypticism that recognizes that the ecosphere sets norms, which we have ignored for too long, and that we need to develop a new sense of solidarity among humans and with the larger living world.
So, speaking apocalyptically need not leave us stuck in a corner with the folks predicting lakes of fire, rivers of blood or bodies lifted up to the heavens. Instead, it can focus our attention on ecological realities and on the unjust and unsustainable human systems that have brought us to this point.
This "revelation" is simple: We've built a world based on the assumption that we will have endless energy to subsidize endless economic expansion, which was supposed to magically produce justice. That world is over, both in reality and in dreams. Either we begin to build a different world, or there will be no world capable of sustaining a large-scale human presence.
If that's not clear: When we take seriously what physics, chemistry and biology tell us about the health of the living world on which we depend, we all should be thinking apocalyptically. Look at any crucial measure of the ecosphere - groundwater depletion; topsoil loss; chemical contamination; increased toxicity in our own bodies; the number and size of "dead zones" in the oceans, accelerating extinction of species and reduction of biodiversity; and the ultimate game-changer of climate disruption - and ask a simple question: Where we are heading? Scientists these days are talking about tipping points and planetary boundaries, about how human activity is pushing the planet beyond its limits.
If we look honestly at the state of the world, it is difficult not to conclude that we are in end times of sorts - not the end of the physical world, but the end of the First-World way of living and the end of the systems on which that life is based.
I know that invoking the terms "apocalypse" and "end times" triggers many people's experiences with arrogant religious people who preach about deliverance fantasies. My message is not about a rapture that can be predicted, but about ruptures in the ecological and social fabrics that are underway and accelerating.
No matter how carefully I craft these statements - no matter how often I deny a claim to special gifts of prognostication, no matter now clearly I reject supernatural explanations or solutions - many people refuse to take this analysis seriously. Some people joke about "Mr. Doom and Gloom." Others suggest that such talk is no different than conspiracy theorists' ramblings about how international bankers, secret cells of communists, or crypto-fascists are using the United Nations to create a one-world government.
Even the most measured and careful talk of the coming dramatic change in the place of humans on Earth leads to accusations that one is unnecessarily alarmist, probably paranoid and certainly irrelevant in serious discussions about social and ecological issues. In the United States, people expect talk of the future to be upbeat, based on those assumptions of endless expansion and perpetual progress, or at least maintenance of our "way of life." Even those who realize the danger of such fanciful thinking are hesitant to speak too bluntly, out of fear of seeming crazy.
A calm apocalypticism is not crazy, but rather can help us confront honestly the crises of our time and strategize constructively about possible responses. We can struggle to understand - to the best of our ability, without succumbing to magical thinking - the state of the ecosphere and the impediments to sensible action in our societies.
This struggle to understand led me to write a short polemicWe Are All Apocalyptic Now: On the Responsibilities of Teaching, Preaching, Reporting, Writing, and Speaking Out. The book's message is simple: The big systems that structure our world, especially capitalism and the extractive economy, are incompatible with social justice and ecological sustainability. Those who have opportunities to write and speak out have a responsibility to articulate the radical analysis necessary to understand the problems and begin to identify solutions.
To think apocalyptically is not to give up on ourselves, but only to give up on the arrogant stories - religious and secular - that we modern humans have been telling about ourselves. Our hope for a decent future - indeed, any hope for even the idea of a future - depends on our ability to tell stories not of how humans have ruled the world, but how we can live in the world.
We are all apocalyptic now, whether we like it or not.

----------------




July 9, 2013  |  
 
The following is an excerpt from We Are All Apocalyptic Now: On the Responsibilities of Teaching, Preaching, Reporting, Writing, and Speaking Out , in print at Amazon.com and on Kindle (CreateSpace Independent Publishing Platform, 2013):
 
The first step in dealing with a difficult situation is to muster the courage to face it honestly, to assess the actual depth and severity of a problem and identify the systems from which the problem emerges. The existing social, economic, and political systems produce a distribution of wealth and well-being that is inconsistent with moral principles, as the ecological capital of the planet is drawn down faster than it can regenerate. The systems that structure almost all human societies produce profoundly unjust and fundamentally unsustainable results. We have both a moral obligation and practical reasons to work for justice and sustainability. 
 
We need first to imagine, and then begin to create, alternative systems that will reduce inequality and slow, and we hope eventually reverse, the human assault on the ecosphere. To work toward those goals, individuals can (and should) make changes in their personal lives to consume less; corporations can (and should) be subject to greater regulation; and the most corrupt political leaders can (and should) be turned out of office. But those limited efforts, while noble and important in the short term, are inadequate to address the problems if no systemic and structural changes are made. 
 
That sounds difficult because it will be, and glib slogans can’t change that fact. A longstanding cliché of progressive politics -- organizers’ task is to “make it easy for people to do the right thing” -- is inadequate in these circumstances. Given the depth of the dysfunction, it will not be easy to do the right thing. It will, in fact, be very hard, and there’s no sense pretending otherwise. At this point in history, anything that is easy and can be achieved quickly is almost certainly insufficient and likely irrelevant in the long run. Attempting to persuade people that large-scale social change will come easily is not only insulting to their intelligence but is guaranteed to fail. If organizers can persuade people to join a movement based on promises of victories that won’t disrupt privileged lives -- victories that cannot be achieved -- the backlash is likely worse than the status quo. 
 
There’s one simple reason that serious change cannot be easy: We are the first species in the history of the planet that is going to have to will itself to practice restraint across the board, especially in our use of energy. Like other carbon-based creatures, we evolved to pursue energy-rich carbon, not constrain ourselves. Going against that basic fact of nature will not be easy.
 
Modern humans -- animals like us, with our brain capacity -- have been on the planet about 200,000 years, which means that we’ve lived within the hierarchical systems launched by agriculture for only about 5 percent of human history. We are living today in a world defined by systems in which we did not evolve as a species and to which we are still struggling to adapt. What today we take to be normal ways of organizing human societies -- nation-states with capitalist economies -- are recent developments, radically different than how we lived for 95 percent of our evolutionary history. We evolved in small gatherer-hunter groups, band-level societies that were basically egalitarian. Research on human social networks suggest that there is a limit on the “natural” size of a human social group of about 150 members, which is determined by our cognitive capacity. This has been called “Dunbar’s number” (after anthropologist Robin Dunbar) -- the number of individuals with whom any one of us can maintain stable relationships. In that world, we pursed that energy-rich carbon without the knowledge or technology that makes that same pursuit so dangerous today. 
 
So we are, as Wes Jackson puts it, “a species out of context.” We are living in a world that is in many ways dramatically out of sync with the kind of animals we are. If we are to create systems and structures that will make possible an ongoing human presence on the planet, we have to understand our evolutionary history and adapt our institutions to reflect our essentially local existence -- people live, after all, not on “the planet” but in a specific place, as part of an ecosystem -- on a scale and with a scope that we are capable of managing. But we also have to acknowledge that we are inextricably connected to others around the world because of more recent history. As a result of the centuries of imperialism that have advantaged some and disadvantaged others, we are all morally connected, as well as literally connected by modern transportation and communication technology. The task is not to go backward to some imagined Eden, but to understand our history to create a more just and sustainable future. 
 
This means we have to recognize that the biological processes that govern the larger living world, along with our own evolutionary history, impose limits on human societies. Either we start shaping our world to reflect those limits so that we can control to some degree the dramatic changes coming, or we will be reacting to changes that can’t be controlled. That isn’t an easy task; as James Howard Kunstler points out, “the only thing that complex societies have not been able to do is contract, to become smaller and less complex, and to do it in a programmatic way that reduces the pain of transition.” Though history suggests that “people do what they can until they can’t,” it’s still imperative that we face the challenge: 
Our longer-term destination is a society run at much lower levels of available energy, with much lower populations, and a time-out from the kinds of progressive innovation that so many have taken for granted their whole lives. It was an illusory result of a certain sequencing in the exploitation of resources in the planet earth that we have now pretty much run through. We have an awful lot to contend with in this reset of human activities.
 
If there is to be a decent future, we have to give up on the imperial fantasy of endless power, the capitalist fantasy of endless growth, the technological fantasy of endless comfort. Those systems have long been celebrated as the engines of unprecedented wealth, albeit for a limited segment of the world’s population. Instead of celebrating, we should mourn the world that these systems have created and search for something better. Systems that celebrate domination are death cults, not the basis for societies striving for justice and sustainability. 
 
Our task can be stated simply: We seek justice, the simple plea for decent lives for all, and sustainability, a balance in which human social systems can thrive within the larger living world. Justice and sustainability have a common economics, politics, ethics, and theology behind them -- rooted in a rejection of concentrated power and hierarchy -- but there is no cookbook we can pull off the shelf with a recipe for success. We can articulate principles, identify rough guidelines, and search for specific solutions to immediate problems. 
 
On justice: Our philosophical and theological systems all acknowledge the inherent dignity of all human beings. We say that we believe that all people are equal, though we accept conditions in the world in which all people cannot live with dignity, where any claim of equality is a farce. In that case we understand the principles but do not live accordingly.
 
On sustainability: There is less consensus on the philosophy and theology on which we ground a concern for sustainability. Is it purely pragmatic? Do we need to conserve the world to sustain ourselves? Should we have some more expansive concern about the non-human living world? Do other living things have a claim on us? There are no simple or obvious answers. We may have some general reverence for all life, but most of us value the lives of our children, our friends, and other humans more than we value the lives of other animals. But even with a lack of clarity about how to value various forms of life, we have to understand that we are part of that larger living world and that we should be careful about how we carve it up into categories. 
 
For example, we should be careful not to value the pristine and ignore the human-built. We should not value the part of a forest that is untouched by human hands more than the part that has been cleared for human shelter. It is seductive to label wilderness as sacred and development as profane. Instead we should learn to see all the world -- the last stands of old-growth redwoods in northern California and the most burned-out block of the South Bronx -- as sacred ground. Until we do that, we have little hope of saving the former from destruction or restoring the latter to health. At its core, sustainability is about the acknowledgment of interdependence: the interdependence of people on each other, of people and other animals, of all living species and the non-living earth. We must see the interdependence of the redwoods and the South Bronx.
 
Again, no one has a blueprint for creating a just and sustainable society, but here is a list of a few basic assumptions and assertions that make justice and sustainability imaginable: (1) nature is not something humans have a right, divine or natural, to subdue and exploit; (2) for most of human beings’ evolutionary history, our social systems encouraged the solidarity and cooperation required for survival, and our social systems today should foster those same values, (3) systems that place profit above other values inevitably cause problems they cannot solve; (4) solutions must be holistic, linking the always interdependent parts of a system, such as producers and consumers; (5) technology is not automatically beneficial and must be scrutinized before being used; and, perhaps most importantly, (6) humans have the moral and intellectual capacity to make choices that will preserve rather than destroy the larger living world.
 
That human capacity to choose wisely does not guarantee we always will. The ease with which intellectuals can be co-opted is a reminder of that.

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Monday, October 28, 2013

Take a Walk on the Wild Side



"I'm waiting for my man...

Feel sick and dirty , more dead than alive"

-Lou Reed

Greetings


         Well Lou Reed is dead.  And I'll miss him.   But the rest of can still "take a walk on the wild side", as we enter this period of climate chaos.  Meanwhile , world governments have decided that to "agree to disagree" is the only way to deal with climate change.  The IPCC took a big step forward when it made clear that the world needs to live within a a carbon budget.   There was some hope that the world's countries would take the next step, and devise a fair allocation of that budget, and start the work of cutting emissions.

      But  alas, that is not to be.     

But Christiana Figueres, executive director of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, said carbon budgets were a good scientific exercise but said that they could not be the basis for negotiations. "I don't think it's possible," she told the Guardian in an interview. "Politically it would be very difficult. I don't know who would hold the pen [in setting out allocations of future budgets]."



Likewise Todd Stern the US special envoy: 

He set out a vision of a new global agreement that would require governments to fix national targets that would then be subject to review against progress, perhaps every five years.


      It makes me weary.  Or as Lou might say

"I am tired, I am weary 
I could sleep for a thousand years 
A thousand dreams that would awake me 
Different colors made of tears "



IPCC's 'carbon budget' will not drive Warsaw talks, says Christiana Figueres

The UN climate change chief says it would be too 'politically difficult' to negotiate national allocations of carbon emission




A key finding of the UN climate panel's latest report on climate change is too politically "difficult" to drive international climate talks in November, according to the UN's climate chief.
Last month, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) calculated how much carbon dioxide the world could emit in future without going over 2C of warming – and showed that, at current rates, this "budget" would be exhausted within 30 years. It effectively put a limit on the amount of CO2 that the human activities such as burning fossil fuels can produce, without risking what scientists regard as dangerous climate change.
But Christiana Figueres, executive director of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, said carbon budgets were a good scientific exercise but said that they could not be the basis for negotiations. "I don't think it's possible," she told the Guardian in an interview. "Politically it would be very difficult. I don't know who would hold the pen [in setting out allocations of future budgets]."
Figueres said the IPCC findings, which set out starkly that climate change is unequivocal, should be "a huge wake-up call" to the world.
She said there were also strong practical reasons for not basing the negotiations on allocations of future emissions to nations. "It treats carbon budgets as though it is a zero sum game, and would presume that there is no advance in technology [to reduce emissions]," she said. "We have made tremendous advances in the past ten years."
Governments will meet in Warsaw next month for the next round of international climate talks. This will be a staging post on the way to crunch negotiations in Paris in 2015, aimed at producing a new global agreement on dealing with emissions.
Figueres said the question of equity between developed and developing nations would be central to the talks. "It requires a concerted effort … we are all in this together," she said. "Countries will be guided by their national circumstances, but at the same time they need also to be guided by our collective needs and collective interest."
She added that the implications of the research, and of studies by the International Energy Agency and others, were that a significant portion of the world's fossil fuel reserves would be "unburnable" if dangerous climate change is to be avoided.
But Figueres rejected claims that nations, including developing countries, could be compensated. "It's not the first time that someone has come to the table with expectations of compensation. I don't see space for that kind of measure. It remains to be seen."
She said a draft negotiating text for a new agreement would be set out next year. National governments will be asked to set out how they intend to reduce emissions.
Other developed country climate negotiators agreed with Figueres' stance, telling the Guardian privately that it was not practical to attempt to allocate emissions based on estimates of future emissions. Instead, nations should set out their own targets for cutting their carbon and these could be subject to review.
The US has made it clear that it will take a leading role, as President Barack Obama has made global warming a priority.
Todd Stern, special envoy on climate change under secretary of state John Kerry, told a conference at Chatham House in London that he was speaking to the White House "almost daily" and that the current talks offered "a historic opportunity" to meet the threat of warming. In the past, the US has sometimes been accused of being lukewarm on an international agreement. But Stern, while rejecting the rigid approach that defined the Kyoto protocol, whereby countries set out firm targets and timetables on emissions but some never met them, had strong words on the need for a global agreement to guide and spur action on carbon.
He said: "National action will only rise to the level of ambition we need if it takes place within a strong and effective international system. Effective international climate agreements serve three vital purposes: they supply the confidence countries need to assure them that if they take ambitious action, their partners and competitors will do the same. They send a potent signal to other important actors [including] sub-national governments and the private sector … and they prompt countries to take aggressive action at home to meet their national pledges."
But he stressed that all nations would be required to play a part, and that countries previously classed as developing would have to take on national commitments on emissions.
He set out a vision of a new global agreement that would require governments to fix national targets that would then be subject to review against progress, perhaps every five years.

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Sunday, October 27, 2013

Nature: Kansas is going Bye Bye


You may ask yourself "How did I get here?"

_Talking Heads

One scotch, one bourbon, one beer

-George Thorogood



Greetings


    They call it a plague, but what they really are referring to is significant temperature changes:

"Extreme weather will soon be beyond anything ever experienced, and old record high temperatures will be the new low temperatures, Mora told IPS. This will affect billions of people and there is no going back to way things were.
“Within my generation, whatever climate we were used to will be a thing of the past,” he said.
----
CNN says:  "annual global temperature will move "to a state continuously outside the bounds of historical variability" in 2047 if no efforts are made to slow global warming.


According to the research, which assesses the impact of warming using an average of well-accepted computer climate models, the average annual global temperature will move "to a state continuously outside the bounds of historical variability" in 2047 if no efforts are made to slow global warming.
Such changes can be put off some 20 years if greenhouse gas emissions are stabilized, the study says.
What exactly does this mean? If you live in the Midwest, think back to the extreme heat and drought of the past few years, CNN meteorologist Brandon Miller said.
Russian residents can remember the heat in 2010, Europeans, 2003.
"Well, that's going to be a normal year, not even an extreme," Miller said. "Those kinds of extreme become an average.



The Coming Plague

Posted on 24 October 2013 by John Hartz

The following article is reprinted by permission of its author, Stephen Leahy, who writes for the Inter Press Service (IPS) News Agency. To access the article as posted on the IPS website, click here.
Photo of coral reef in Indonesia
Rich benthic fauna and associated reef fish, Southeast Sulawesi, Indonesia, which is expected to be one of the first places in the world to see prolonged, record-breaking heatwaves. Credit: Courtesy of Keoki Stender, Marinelifephotography.com
climate plague affecting every living thing will likely start in 2020 in southern Indonesia, scientists warned Wednesday in the journal Nature. A few years later the plague will have spread throughout the world’s tropical regions.
By mid-century no place on the planet will be unaffected, said the authors of the landmark study.
“We don’t know what the impacts will be. If someone is about to fall off a three-storey building you can’t predict their exact injuries but you know there will be injuries,” said Camilo Mora, an ecologist at University of Hawai‘i in Honolulu and lead author.
“The results shocked us. Regardless of the scenario, changes will be coming soon,” said Mora.
The “climate plague” is a shift to an entirely new climate where the lowest monthly temperatures will be hotter than those in the past 150 years. The shift is already underway due to massive emissions of heat-trapping carbon from burning oil, gas and coal.
Extreme weather will soon be beyond anything ever experienced, and old record high temperatures will be the new low temperatures, Mora told IPS. This will affect billions of people and there is no going back to way things were.
“Within my generation, whatever climate we were used to will be a thing of the past,” he said.
In less than 10 years, a country like Jamaica will look much like it always has but it will not be the same country. Jamaicans and every living thing on the island and in its coastal waters will be experiencing a new, hotter climate – hotter on average than the previous 150 years.
The story will be same around 2030 in southern Nigeria, much of West Africa, Mexico and Central America without major reductions in the use of fossil fuels, the study reports.
“Some species will adapt, some will move, some will die,” said co-author Ryan Longman also at the University of Hawai‘i.
Tropical regions will shift first because their historical temperature ranges are narrow. Climate change may only shift temperatures by 1.0 degree C but that will be too much for some plants, amphibians, animals and birds that have evolved in a very stable climate, Longman said.
Tropical corals are already in sharp decline due to a combination of warmer ocean temperatures and  higher levels of ocean acidity as oceans absorb most the carbon from burning oil, gas and coal.
The Nature study examined 150 years of historical temperature data, more than a million maps, and the combined projections of 39 climate models to create a global index of when and where a region shifts into novel climate. That is to say a local climate that is continuously outside the most extreme records the region has experienced in the past 150 years.
Canada’s climate won’t shift until 2050 under the business as usual emissions scenario the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) calls RCP8.5. The further a region is from the equator, the later the shift occurs. If the world sharply reduces its use of fossil fuels (RCP4.5), then these climate shifts are delayed 10 to 30 years depending on the location, the study shows. (City by city projection here)
Tropical regions are also those with greatest numbers of unique species. Costa Rica is home to nearly 800 species, while Canada, which is nearly 200 times larger in area, has only about 70 unique or endemic species.
Species matter because the abundance and variety of plants, animals, fish, insects and other living things are humanity’s life support system, providing our air, water, food and more.
“It’s an elegant study that shows timing of when climate shifts beyond anything in the recent past,” said Simon Donner, a climate scientist at Canada’s University of British Columbia.
Donner, who wasn’t involved in the study, agrees that the new regional climates in the tropics will have big impacts on many species.
“A number of other studies show corals, birds, and amphibians in the tropics are very sensitive to temperature changes,” Donner told IPS.
The impacts on ecosystems, food production, water availability or cites and towns are not known. However, the results of the study confirm the urgent need to reduce carbon emissions to reduce those future impacts, he said.
Developed countries not only need to make larger reductions in their emissions, they need to increase their “funding of social and conservation programmes in developing countries to minimize the impacts of climate change”, the study concludes.
Amongst the biggest impacts the coming ‘climate plague’ will have is on food production, said Mora.
“In a globalised world, what happens in tropics won’t stay in the tropics,” he said.

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Friday, October 25, 2013

True Grid


Greetings

     I've always that one of the least vulnerable of our just-in-time system would be the grid.     However, sometimes I'm not so sure.  Here is some info on the vulnerabilities from the NYT..  Grid called vulnerable

"The electric grid, as government and private experts describe it, is the glass jaw of American industry. If an adversary lands a knockout blow, they fear, it could black out vast areas of the continent for weeks; interrupt supplies of water, gasoline, diesel fuel and fresh food; shut down communications; and create disruptions of a scale that was only hinted at by Hurricane Sandy and the attacks of Sept. 11. "   
 see  NYT:  US worries over grid


 Then below, Stuart Staniford reviews  a recently de- classified book - Terrorism and The Electric Power Delivery System.  Finally Staniford reviews the emergency plan of  for Pittsburgh.  He concludes:

"Thus the picture is that for a power outage of days or less, people have gas in their tanks, food in their cupboards, etc.  But for outages beyond that duration, the means to supply the populace with food, fuel, and water is not survivable and will rapidly degrade, and people will quickly be reduced to "refugee" status - needing either to leave to somewhere better equipped, or to rely on emergency measures like water buffalo trucks and food handouts at central distribution points."

   Better check that emergency water supply! 





Electrical Grid Is Called Vulnerable to Power Shutdown

By NICOLE PERLROTH
Two researchers discovered that they could freeze, or crash, the software that monitors a substation, thereby blinding control center operators from the power grid.Stuart Isett for The New York TimesTwo researchers discovered that they could freeze, or crash, the software that monitors a substation, thereby blinding control center operators from the power grid.
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Over the past few months, the discoveries of two engineers have led to a steady trickle of alarms from the Department of Homeland Security concerning a threat to the nation’s power grid. Yet hardly anyone has noticed.
The advisories concern vulnerabilities in the communication protocol used by power and water utilities to remotely monitor control stations around the country. Using those vulnerabilities, an attacker at a single, unmanned power substation could inflict a widespread power outage.
Still, the two engineers who discovered the vulnerability say little is being done.
Adam Crain and Chris Sistrunk do not specialize in security. The engineers say they hardly qualify as security researchers. But seven months ago, Mr. Crain wrote software to look for defects in an open-source software program. The program targeted a very specific communications protocol called DNP3, which is predominantly used by electric and water companies, and plays a crucial role in so-called S.C.A.D.A. (supervisory control and data acquisition) systems. Utility companies use S.C.A.D.A. systems to monitor far-flung power stations from a control center, in part because it allows them to remotely diagnose problems rather than wait for a technician to physically drive out to a station and fix it.
Mr. Crain ran his security test on his open-source DNP3 program and didn’t find anything wrong. Frustrated, he tested a third-party vendor’s program to make sure his software was working. The first program he targeted belonged to Triangle MicroWorks, a Raleigh, North Carolina based company that sells source code to large vendors of S.C.A.D.A. systems. It broke instantly.
Mr. Crain called Mr. Sistrunk, an electrical engineer, to see if he could help Mr. Crain test his program on other systems.
“When Adam told me he broke Triangle, I worried everything else was broken,” said Mr. Sistrunk.
Over the course of one week last April, the two tested Mr. Crain’s software across 16 vendors’ systems. They did not find a single system they couldn’t break.
By the end of the week, the two had compiled a 20-page report replete with vulnerabilities in 16 different system vendors for the Department of Homeland Security’s Industrial Control Systems Cyber Emergency Response Team, I.C.S.-C.E.R.T., which notifies vendors of vulnerabilities and issues public advisories.
And then, they waited. It would take I.C.S.-C.E.R.T. another four months to issue a public advisory for Triangle MicroWorks’ system.
Triangle MicroWorks’ engineering manager Greg Godlevski said that during those four months, the company developed a number of its own tests to look for defects in its software and fix them. Mr. Godlevski said the company waited for confirmation from Mr. Crain that the problem had been fixed, then met with I.C.S.-C.E.R.T. several times to review and comment on the government advisory.
“We take any reported problems discovered in our products very seriously,” Mr. Godlevski said. “We expend a lot of effort adding levels of security to our protocols and ensuring that they comply to the published specifications.”
D.H.S. did not return a request for comment.
Over the course of those four months, Mr. Crain and Mr. Sistrunk  found vulnerabilities in an additional nine vendors’ systems.
Like most security alerts, there are some caveats to this concern for the safety of electric facilities: Mr. Peterson’s company, Digital Bond, sells consulting services to assess and improve the security of S.C.A.D.A. systems.
Mr. Crain also has an interest. In March, he plans to release a free version of his security test, but for now he is charging vendors to use his program. (Mr. Crain would not disclose pricing, since it differed for each vendor based on vendor size, saying only that he charged in the “thousands” though he said he charged far less than commercial services like WurldTech Security, which charges tens of thousands of dollars for similar programs.)
“We haven’t found anything we haven’t broken yet,” Mr. Crain said in an interview. At minimum, the two discovered that they could freeze, or crash, the software that monitors a substation, thereby blinding control center operators from the power grid. Mr. Crain likened that capability to “a bank robber being in a bank vault with the camera frozen.”
In the case of one vendor, Mr. Crain found that he could actually infiltrate a power station’s control center from afar. An attacker could use that capability to insert malware to take over the system, and like Stuxnet, the computer worm that took out 20 percent of Iran’s centrifuges, inflict actual physical harm.
“This is low-hanging fruit,” said Mr. Crain. “It doesn’t require some kind of hacker mastermind to understand the protocol and do this.”
What makes the vulnerabilities particularly troubling, experts say, is that traditional firewalls are ill-equipped to stop them. “When the master crashes it can no longer monitor or control any and all of the substations,” said Dale Peterson, a former N.S.A. employee who founded Digital Bond, a security firm that focuses on infrastructure. “There is no way to stop this with a firewall and other perimeter security device today. You have to let DNP3 responses through.”
Even more troubling, Mr. Peterson said, is that most DNP3 communications aren’t regulated. The original version of DNP3 worked on serial communications — a way of transmitting data usually found in things like coaxial cables — and is still widely deployed in large systems, particularly substations around the country. But current cybersecurity regulations, governed by the North American Electric Reliability Corporation’s (N.E.R.C.) Critical Infrastructure Protection Committee (C.I.P.C.) are focused on Internet Protocols, or I.P. protocols, and specifically exclude serial communications and the equipment that uses them from meeting any security requirements.
“Why isn’t D.H.S., N.E.R.C., and the DNP3 committee telling vendors they need to fix this now and utility owners they need to get this patched A.S.A.P.?” Mr. Peterson said.
To date, D.H.S. has posted nine advisories, several of them for software used by major players in the electric sector.
“This is a systemic problem,” Mr. Crain said. “Most of the top five utilities use this software and just because a patch is available, doesn’t necessarily mean that utilities are applying them.”

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Terrorism and the Electric Power Delivery System

I am currently reading Terrorism and the Electric Power Delivery System.  From the summary:
The electric power delivery system that carries electricity from large central generators to customers could be severely damaged by a small number of well-informed attackers. The system is inherently vulnerable because transmission lines may span hundreds of miles, and many key facilities are unguarded. This vulnerability is exacerbated by the fact that the power grid, most of which was originally designed to meet the needs of individual vertically integrated utilities, is now being used to move power between regions to support the needs of new competitive markets for power generation. Primarily because of ambiguities introduced as a result of recent restructuring of the industry and cost pressures from consumers and regulators, investment to strengthen and upgrade the grid has lagged, with the result that many parts of the bulk high-voltage system are heavily stressed.

A terrorist attack on the power system would lack the dramatic impact of the attacks in New York, Madrid, or London. It would not immediately kill many people or make for spectacular television footage of bloody destruction. But if it were carried out in a carefully planned way, by people who knew what they were doing, it could deny large regions of the country access to bulk system power for weeks or even months. An event of this magnitude and duration could lead to turmoil, widespread public fear, and an image of helpless- ness that would play directly into the hands of the terrorists. If such large extended outages were to occur during times of extreme weather, they could also result in hundreds or even thousands of deaths due to heat stress or extended exposure to extreme cold.

The largest power system disruptions experienced to date in the United States have caused high economic impacts. Considering that a systematically designed and executed terrorist attack could cause disruptions that were even more widespread and of longer duration, it is no stretch of the imagination to think that such attacks could entail costs of hundreds of billions of dollars—that is, perhaps as much as a few percent of the U.S. gross domestic product (GDP), which is currently about $12.5 trillion.

Electric systems are not designed to withstand or quickly recover from damage inflicted simultaneously on multiple components. Such an attack could be carried out by knowl- edgeable attackers with little risk of detection or interdiction. Further well-planned and coordinated attacks by terrorists could leave the electric power system in a large region of the country at least partially disabled for a very long time.
Alert readers may note that the $12.5 trillion figure for GDP is inconsistent with the 2012 publication date of this National Academies of Science report.  Apparently it was written in the 2004-2007 timeframe, but then classified until last year.



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Sustaining a City in a Long-Term Power Outage

A few comments on this fascinating study from Pittsburgh (site of Carnegie Mellon, which is a center of excellence at studying critical infrastructure issues).  The key theme that emerges for me is the interaction of the liquid fuel system (particularly diesel) and the electricity system.  In a short outage, lots of critical infrastructure has diesel generator backup, and so the hospitals, 911-call centers, and so on can continue to operate.  However, they typically have limited fuel storage capacity (if for no other reason than that diesel doesn't keep indefinitely), and so in a long outage, the availability of diesel becomes critical to keeping everything together.

To illustrate the time factors, consider the water situation in Pittsburgh:
The Pittsburgh Water and Sewer Authority is responsible for providing the city of Pittsburgh with clean water for household and business use. Most of the electricity required at the Aspinwall Water Treatment Plant (WTP) is consumed pumping water from the river. From the treatment plant, water is pumped to the three primary reservoirs. About half of the water from the primary reservoirs is delivered directly to homes and businesses. The other half is pumped to a series of smaller reservoirs, tanks, towers, and standpipes around the city. In this report the main reservoirs are referred to as ‘primary storage’ and the smaller storage facilities as ‘secondary storage’.

Pumping into storage facilities is usually activated when water levels in the facility drop below a certain level. Storage facilities are normally kept full, but may drop to 80% in the evenings. Electricity is only needed to pump water into storage facilities. Once water is stored at a high point in a reservoir or a tower it can flow by gravity to any customer located below it.

During the course of this study, we found that immediately following a blackout, water supplies will be unaffected. In the absence of any backup generation, after one day of power outage, as many as 15% of customers could expect to lose water as secondary storage is depleted. All secondary storage is likely to be depleted after three days, leaving 50% of the population without water, increasing the load on primary storage and depleting the first of the primary storage reservoirs within about nine days. The last water storage will be depleted after two weeks.
So a short outage is no big deal, but between the first few days and two weeks, things start to go really bad, until the point where everyone is dependent on emergency measures:
Current emergency plans include distribution of water by tanker trucks (called water buffalos). Emergency response plans at the city and county level include steps to acquire these trucks from local governments and agencies. With a typical capacity of 2,500 gallons, these trucks would only be practical or providing minimal supplies of water. To provide all 370,000 people in Pittsburgh with an emergency one gallon ration of water per day of water would require 15 trucks working 18 hour days. To provide even 10% of normal drinking water supply would require 240 trucks
The water system itself at the time of the study (2004) lacked emergency power backup, but note that the water buffalo trucks require diesel.  The fuel supply in an extended outage would be very uncertain (as we saw during the damage from Sandy also):
Gas stations become more critical to the citizens of Pittsburgh as a blackout endures. Initially, most people can rely on the gas already in the tank. But over time, the demand for gas will grow, as people will want to leave their homes to procure needed items, or to just “get out.”

There is little incentive, however, for gas station operators to install generators. The probability of a long outage is sufficiently low that the owner will likely not recover the cost of a back-up generator over its lifetime. Thus, if gas stations were to be made more survivable, the government would likely have to step in. For example, is it feasible to designate a few fueling stations around Pittsburgh as “emergency” gas stations and provide incentive to install backup generators?
Pittsburgh is a distribution hub for the fuel system, so there is a lot of fuel there, but it cannot be accessed without electric power:
The second component is the distribution within the city to points of need. We are confident that there are enough trucks to supply fuel to all the critical services outlined in this report. However, the pumps that pump fuel from the large storage tanks are vulnerable to electricity outages. We recommend that this issue be studied further to determine if this dependency is acceptable.
So it sounds like a lot of diesel backup generators would be likely rendered useless for lack of fuel before too long.

The theme of critical infrastructure is in private hands with differing incentives also shows up in the context of grocery stores:
Giant Eagle is the dominant player in the Pittsburgh grocery market, with twelve stores within the city limits. Most have generators to power critical equipment such as emergency lights, but they do not have backup capacity for refrigeration equipment. Pittsburgh has relatively reliable power, and Giant Eagle has decided that large backup is not economically attractive or necessary. On the other hand, Giant Eagle stores in the Cleveland area typically have complete backup capacity, since power there is less reliable.
Thus the picture is that for a power outage of days or less, people have gas in their tanks, food in their cupboards, etc.  But for outages beyond that duration, the means to supply the populace with food, fuel, and water is not survivable and will rapidly degrade, and people will quickly be reduced to "refugee" status - needing either to leave to somewhere better equipped, or to rely on emergency measures like water buffalo trucks and food handouts at central distribution points.

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