tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11903624111199583872024-03-05T01:32:10.592-08:00Surf The PeakWalterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18048738723369282833noreply@blogger.comBlogger403125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1190362411119958387.post-11749759121109339802020-01-06T14:19:00.000-08:002020-01-06T14:19:02.992-08:002020 Vision<br />
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I can see clearly now</div>
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-Jimmy Cliff</div>
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I was feeling single</div>
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and seeing double</div>
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wound up in a whole lotta trouble</div>
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- George Jones</div>
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Good news : Researchers suggest that it is unlikely that human emissions will reach the levels implied by the "worst case" scenario - RCP 8.5/ (see below)*</div>
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Greetings</div>
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2020 is shaping up to be a pivotal year for Climate Change. Johann Rochstrom of the Potsdam Institute calls it <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://amp.theguardian.com/environment/2019/dec/08/un-climate-talks-are-failing-to-see-urgency-of-crisis-says-scientist?__twitter_impression%3Dtrue&source=gmail&ust=1578433566521000&usg=AFQjCNGrHn_cNZUtSzQQQL9SrZhOc6Ai1w" href="https://amp.theguardian.com/environment/2019/dec/08/un-climate-talks-are-failing-to-see-urgency-of-crisis-says-scientist?__twitter_impression=true" target="_blank">"the year of truth</a>" </div>
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Rockström said the UN conference must grapple urgently with reversing emissions of greenhouse gases, <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/dec/04/paris-climate-deal-world-not-on-track-to-meet-goal-amid-continuous-emissions&source=gmail&ust=1578433566521000&usg=AFQjCNH6IZ2WPhXcftbVSKSattHdpdNjrA" href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/dec/04/paris-climate-deal-world-not-on-track-to-meet-goal-amid-continuous-emissions" rel="noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer" style="border-bottom-color: rgb(220,220,220); border-bottom-style: solid; border-width: 0px 0px 1px; color: #ab0613; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">which are still on the rise </a>despite repeated <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2013/sep/27/ipcc-climate-report-un-secretary-general&source=gmail&ust=1578433566521000&usg=AFQjCNFABVzVAMkoD271ZOG_OYAJsV-8xQ" href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2013/sep/27/ipcc-climate-report-un-secretary-general" rel="noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer" style="border-bottom-color: rgb(220,220,220); border-bottom-style: solid; border-width: 0px 0px 1px; color: #ab0613; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">scientific warnings</a> over three decades and <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2011/dec/09/insider-view-durban-climate-conference&source=gmail&ust=1578433566521000&usg=AFQjCNH3Lh7nCv3-Rpu4A9NkuviGU5Z9Tw" href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2011/dec/09/insider-view-durban-climate-conference" rel="noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer" style="border-bottom-color: rgb(220,220,220); border-bottom-style: solid; border-width: 0px 0px 1px; color: #ab0613; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">multiple resolutions by governments</a> to tackle the problem.</div>
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“We must bend the curve next year,” he told the Guardian, citing stark <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/oct/08/global-warming-must-not-exceed-15c-warns-landmark-un-report&source=gmail&ust=1578433566521000&usg=AFQjCNH4UwfYwrjaJ61kVKZD4FM7_Rk_fg" href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/oct/08/global-warming-must-not-exceed-15c-warns-landmark-un-report" rel="noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer" style="border-bottom-color: rgb(220,220,220); border-bottom-style: solid; border-width: 0px 0px 1px; color: #ab0613; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">warnings from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change</a>. “Next year is the year of truth. The year when we must move decisively to an economy that really starts to reduce investments in fossil fuels.”</div>
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Likewise the IPCC says that in order to avoid 1.5 degrees of warming, emissions must <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-48964736&source=gmail&ust=1578433566521000&usg=AFQjCNHLR2w0z_G7MEzdp-xTgDeYZd1lCA" href="https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-48964736" target="_blank">peak in 2020 and be cut by 45% by 2030</a></div>
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<span style="color: #404040; font-family: helmet,freesans,helvetica,arial,sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.375;">The idea that 2020 is a firm deadline was eloquently addressed by one of the world's top climate scientists, speaking back in 2017.</span></blockquote>
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<span style="color: #404040; font-family: helmet,freesans,helvetica,arial,sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.375;">"The climate math is brutally clear: While the world can't be healed within the next few years, it may be fatally wounded by negligence until 2020," said Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, founder and now director emeritus of the Potsdam Climate Institute.</span></blockquote>
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The sense that the end of next year is the last chance saloon for climate change is becoming clearer all the time.</div>
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<span style="color: #404040; font-family: helmet,freesans,helvetica,arial,sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.375;">One of the understated headlines in last year's </span><a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://report.ipcc.ch/sr15/pdf/sr15_spm_final.pdf&source=gmail&ust=1578433566521000&usg=AFQjCNHP081dwRUVATPrNpKE5jKdZ1rw_Q" href="https://report.ipcc.ch/sr15/pdf/sr15_spm_final.pdf" rel="noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer" style="border-bottom-color: rgb(220,220,220); border-bottom-style: solid; border-width: 0px 0px 1px; color: #222222; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: bold; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.375; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">IPCC report</a><span style="color: #404040; font-family: helmet,freesans,helvetica,arial,sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.375;"> was that global emissions of carbon dioxide must peak by 2020 to keep the planet below 1.5C.</span></blockquote>
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Current plans are nowhere near strong enough to keep temperatures below the so-called safe limit. Right now, we are heading towards 3C of heating by 2100 not 1.5.</div>
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As countries usually scope out their plans over five and 10 year time frames, if the 45% carbon cut target by 2030 is to be met then the plans really need to be on the table by the end of 2020.</div>
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*As for the news about RCP 8.5, it is not completely a good news story. <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=http://nymag.com/intelligencer/amp/2019/12/climate-change-worst-case-scenario-now-looks-unrealistic.html&source=gmail&ust=1578433566521000&usg=AFQjCNEageHn7Vz5SJAmqq1TM30uY_GNqQ" href="http://nymag.com/intelligencer/amp/2019/12/climate-change-worst-case-scenario-now-looks-unrealistic.html" target="_blank">Although emissions may be lower the climate may be more sensitive </a>to those emissions. As David Wallace Wells reports</div>
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<span style="color: black; font-family: miller-text,georgia,serif; font-size: 18px;">On top of which, a </span><a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.carbonbrief.org/cmip6-the-next-generation-of-climate-models-explained&source=gmail&ust=1578433566521000&usg=AFQjCNEU8hLvfCaI3oqLhFBL44GTTQ7NHw" href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/cmip6-the-next-generation-of-climate-models-explained" rel="noreferrer" style="color: black; font-family: miller-text,georgia,serif; font-size: 18px; padding: 0px;" target="_blank">next generation of more advanced models</a><span style="color: black; font-family: miller-text,georgia,serif; font-size: 18px;"> are currently being developed to better predict what amount of temperature rise would result from certain emissions levels, and while the models are by no means speaking in unison, a </span><a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2019/04/new-climate-models-predict-warming-surge&source=gmail&ust=1578433566521000&usg=AFQjCNGq-yj0zpuiipdcqcIExJ1qqG9E_w" href="https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2019/04/new-climate-models-predict-warming-surge" rel="noreferrer" style="color: black; font-family: miller-text,georgia,serif; font-size: 18px; padding: 0px;" target="_blank">concerning proportion</a><span style="color: black; font-family: miller-text,georgia,serif; font-size: 18px;"> of those that have been released show that the climate could be considerably more sensitive to emissions than previously understood — <b>meaning we could find ourselves in a better place, emissions wise, this century, and still end up in roughly the same place we thought we would, when we were expecting higher emissions. (Or perhaps, in theory, even a worse place.</b>)</span></div>
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<span style="color: black; font-family: miller-text,georgia,serif; font-size: 18px; line-height: 1.375;">The third takeaway is that anyone who sees a world of 3 degrees warming — or even 2.5 degrees — as a positive or happy outcome has a pretty grotesque, or at least deluded, perspective on human suffering. At just two degrees, the U.N. estimates, damages from storms and sea-level rise could grow 100-fold. Cities in South Asia and the Middle East that are today home to many millions of people would be so hot during summer heat waves, scientists have projected, even going outside during the day could mean risking heatstroke or heat death. The number of climate refugees could pass 200 million, according to the U.N., and more than 150 million would die from the impacts of air pollution alone. North of two degrees, of course, the strain accumulates and intensifies, and while some amount of human adaptation to these forces is inevitable, the scale of adaptation required at even two degrees begins to seem close to impossible.</span></div>
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As climate goals are harder and harder to reach, climate watchers focus of the potential tippings points ; self reinforcing warming beyond human control. Recently <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2019/11/191127161418.htm&source=gmail&ust=1578433566521000&usg=AFQjCNH9d8Q5kNIOkRG9sqYZhcS38FtUgw" href="https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2019/11/191127161418.htm" target="_blank">a group of scientists have warned that more than half of the climate tipping points identified a decade ago are now "active"</a></span></span><div>
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<span style="line-height: 1.5;">For those of you scoring at home, here are the nine active tipping points with recent news items:</span></div>
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1. Arctic sea ice</div>
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<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://e360.yale.edu/features/tipping_point_arctic_heads_to_ice_free_summers&source=gmail&ust=1578433566521000&usg=AFQjCNFjoLbHArx1Co2C7Gt_vat-RSl6LA" href="https://e360.yale.edu/features/tipping_point_arctic_heads_to_ice_free_summers" target="_blank">Recent extreme melting offers dramatic evidence, many scientists say, that the region’s sea ice has passed a tipping point and that sometime in the next decade or two the North Pole will be largely ice-free in summer.</a></div>
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2. Greenland ice sheet</div>
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3. Boreal forests</div>
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4. Permafrost</div>
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<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://phys.org/news/2019-10-emissions-arctic-permafrost-carbon-source.amp?__twitter_impression%3Dtrue&source=gmail&ust=1578433566521000&usg=AFQjCNHzIHm8l1_p6Yv_t0Fqlxh4QT_P3w" href="https://phys.org/news/2019-10-emissions-arctic-permafrost-carbon-source.amp?__twitter_impression=true" target="_blank">Arctic regions have captured and stored carbon for tens of thousands of years, but a new study shows winter carbon emissions from the Arctic may now be putting more carbon into the atmosphere than is taken up by plants each year.</a></div>
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One researcher suggests that <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=http://www.fasterthanexpected.com/2019/12/12/the-arctics-grand-reveal/&source=gmail&ust=1578433566521000&usg=AFQjCNHm4JtvGeDB3WMPcHfug7hkaari3w" href="http://www.fasterthanexpected.com/2019/12/12/the-arctics-grand-reveal/" target="_blank"><strong style="background-clip: initial; background-color: transparent; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; color: #222222; font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: small; line-height: 1.5; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">by 2035 permafrost thaw may continue on its own, disregarding the processes that have kept it frozen for thousands of years</strong><span style="color: #222222; font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: x-small; line-height: 1.5;">.</span></a></div>
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5. Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation</div>
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6. Amazon rainforest</div>
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<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/top-scientists-warn-of-an-amazon-tipping-point/2019/12/20/9c9be954-233e-11ea-bed5-880264cc91a9_story.html&source=gmail&ust=1578433566521000&usg=AFQjCNHcwkexu3tj_OLGoTjJWKMSawLLiw" href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/top-scientists-warn-of-an-amazon-tipping-point/2019/12/20/9c9be954-233e-11ea-bed5-880264cc91a9_story.html" target="_blank"><strong style="background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; color: #666666; font-family: 'open sans',arial,sans-serif; font-size: 18px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The precious Amazon is teetering on the edge of functional destruction and, with it, so are we,”</strong><span style="color: #666666; font-family: 'open sans',arial,sans-serif; font-size: 18px;"> Thomas Lovejoy of George Mason University and Carlos Nobre of the University of Sao Paulo in Brazil, both of whom have studied the world’s largest rainforest for decades, wrote in an editorial in the journal Science Advances. “Today, we stand exactly in a moment of destiny: </span><strong style="background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; color: #666666; font-family: 'open sans',arial,sans-serif; font-size: 18px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The tipping point is here, it is now</strong><span style="color: #666666; font-family: 'open sans',arial,sans-serif; font-size: 18px;">.”</span></a></div>
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7. Warm-water corals</div>
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8. West Antarctic Ice Sheet</div>
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<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0277379119306122&source=gmail&ust=1578433566521000&usg=AFQjCNEs6v4tfqoM66LD1s8V6m7bYGs6dA" href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0277379119306122" target="_blank">The Paris Agreement target temperature of 1.5°C is sufficient to drive runaway retreat of the WAIS.</a></div>
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9. Parts of East Antarctica</div>
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Of course some of those tipping points may not fully play out for years in the future. Others may be faster. As William Gibson has pointed out "The future is already here, its just not even;y distributed". If you want to see a likely future, take a look at<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2019/dec/30/australia-victoria-bushfires-evacuated-east-gippsland-fires-news-live-latest-updates&source=gmail&ust=1578433566521000&usg=AFQjCNHVDF1K-gldoJslGbvvZLgUtnztCA" href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2019/dec/30/australia-victoria-bushfires-evacuated-east-gippsland-fires-news-live-latest-updates" target="_blank"> the heat and firers in Australia</a>. And this is only 1 degree. </div>
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When might we expect to hit 1.5? Here's <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://theconversation.com/why-protesters-should-be-wary-of-12-years-to-climate-breakdown-rhetoric-115489&source=gmail&ust=1578433566521000&usg=AFQjCNHkTLIqMehCFgEDxByHV8TZ6GzD7Q" href="https://theconversation.com/why-protesters-should-be-wary-of-12-years-to-climate-breakdown-rhetoric-115489" target="_blank">what professor Miles Allen of Oxford University says.</a></div>
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"Using the World Meteorological Organisation’s definition of global average surface temperature, and the late 19th century to represent its pre-industrial level (yes, all these definitions matter), we just passed 1°C and are warming at more than 0.2°C per decade, which would take us to 1.5°C around 2040.</div>
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That said, these are only best estimates. We might already be at 1.2°C, and warming at 0.25°C per decade – well within the range of uncertainty.<b> That would indeed get us to 1.5°C by 2030</b></div>
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And then what should we expect? see <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://science.sciencemag.org/content/365/6459/eaaw6974&source=gmail&ust=1578433566521000&usg=AFQjCNESF0Hw7hqXLoapa1It73tkcd0I5Q" href="https://science.sciencemag.org/content/365/6459/eaaw6974" target="_blank">here</a> and <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://theconversation.com/not-convinced-on-the-need-for-urgent-climate-action-heres-what-happens-to-our-planet-between-1-5-c-and-2-c-of-global-warming-123817&source=gmail&ust=1578433566521000&usg=AFQjCNHAyDUovTHxd-mFqdytbWJpsIhNyQ" href="https://theconversation.com/not-convinced-on-the-need-for-urgent-climate-action-heres-what-happens-to-our-planet-between-1-5-c-and-2-c-of-global-warming-123817" target="_blank">here</a>, <a href="https://www.wri.org/blog/2018/10/8-things-you-need-know-about-ipcc-15-c-report">Here is a handy chart</a></div>
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<span style="color: #383838; font-family: 'Libre Baskerville',Georgia,Times,'Times New Roman',serif; font-size: 18px; line-height: 28.8px;">At 1.5°C of warming, about one in twenty insect and vertebrate species will disappear from half of the area they currently inhabit, as will around one in ten plants. At 2°C, this proportion doubles for plants and vertebrates. For insects, it triples.</span></div>
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Such high levels of species loss will put many ecosystems across the world at <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/8/4/044018/meta&source=gmail&ust=1578433566521000&usg=AFQjCNHKgakXyv746LJRoKlBUSIzXJAxKA" href="https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/8/4/044018/meta" style="color: #555768; outline: none; white-space: pre-wrap; word-wrap: break-word;" target="_blank">risk of collapse</a>. We rely on healthy ecosystems to pollinate crops, maintain fertile soil, prevent floods, purify water, and much more. Conserving them is essential for human survival and prosperity.</div>
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Between 1.5°C and 2°C, the number of extremely hot days <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/11706/1/ngeo2595-aop.pdf&source=gmail&ust=1578433566521000&usg=AFQjCNHS_LRewXT0nacHQGFEBWTNkUeV2Q" href="http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/11706/1/ngeo2595-aop.pdf" style="color: #555768; outline: none; white-space: pre-wrap; word-wrap: break-word;" target="_blank">increases exponentially</a>. Some parts of the world can also expect less rain and more consecutive dry days, while others will receive more extreme floods. Collectively, this will place agriculture, water levels and human health under severe stress – especially in <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aab190&source=gmail&ust=1578433566521000&usg=AFQjCNGkJbsEjJKHotOWmBkgU77gwFUhKg" href="https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aab190" style="color: #555768; outline: none; white-space: pre-wrap; word-wrap: break-word;" target="_blank">southern African nations</a>, where temperatures will increase faster than the global average. The Mediterranean is another key area at particular risk above 1.5°C of heating, where increased drought will alter flora and fauna in a way <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://science.sciencemag.org/content/354/6311/465.full&source=gmail&ust=1578433566521000&usg=AFQjCNGW0MGefFvQoDfHdMTfsGIKP3BMtg" href="https://science.sciencemag.org/content/354/6311/465.full" style="color: #555768; outline: none; white-space: pre-wrap; word-wrap: break-word;" target="_blank">without precedent in ten millennia</a>.</div>
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Many US cities are <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://amp.theguardian.com/cities/2019/dec/06/killer-heat-us-cities-plans-for-coming-heatwaves-fail-to-protect-vulnerable?CMP%3Dshare_btn_tw%26__twitter_impression%3Dtrue&source=gmail&ust=1578433566521000&usg=AFQjCNF9kON3JsFdPJEc8Sh4bwJemGV7bg" href="https://amp.theguardian.com/cities/2019/dec/06/killer-heat-us-cities-plans-for-coming-heatwaves-fail-to-protect-vulnerable?CMP=share_btn_tw&__twitter_impression=true" target="_blank">drawing up plans to deal with "killer heat waves</a>",and <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://theconversation.com/amp/our-climate-is-like-reckless-banking-before-the-crash-its-time-to-talk-about-near-term-collapse-128374?__twitter_impression%3Dtrue&source=gmail&ust=1578433566521000&usg=AFQjCNE_sQ6DfRO4cBMbtGG8qgcq8VvY0w" href="https://theconversation.com/amp/our-climate-is-like-reckless-banking-before-the-crash-its-time-to-talk-about-near-term-collapse-128374?__twitter_impression=true" style="font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.375;" target="_blank">food shocks may also be occur</a></div>
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: 'libre baskerville',serif;">In the future, food shocks are likely to get </span><a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212096316300080&source=gmail&ust=1578433566521000&usg=AFQjCNEHZNppN2lCJ3ErJ-LdVud5AvdhYw" href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212096316300080" rel="noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer" style="color: #555768; font-family: 'libre baskerville',serif;" target="_blank">much worse</a><span style="color: #333333; font-family: 'libre baskerville',serif;">. The risk of </span><a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/08/climate/climate-change-food-supply.html&source=gmail&ust=1578433566521000&usg=AFQjCNEJDA8ELyx1ahlJijnQqIUXpQuPwQ" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/08/climate/climate-change-food-supply.html" rel="noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer" style="color: #555768; font-family: 'libre baskerville',serif;" target="_blank">multi-breadbasket failure is increasing</a><span style="color: #333333; font-family: 'libre baskerville',serif;">, and rises </span><a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0308521X18307674&source=gmail&ust=1578433566521000&usg=AFQjCNFagjVTyXsoeIMq2kaNjqJufg9A2A" href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0308521X18307674" rel="noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer" style="color: #555768; font-family: 'libre baskerville',serif;" target="_blank">much faster beyond 1.5℃ of global heating</a><span style="color: #333333; font-family: 'libre baskerville',serif;"> – a threshold we could hit </span><a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://theconversation.com/why-protesters-should-be-wary-of-12-years-to-climate-breakdown-rhetoric-115489&source=gmail&ust=1578433566521000&usg=AFQjCNHkTLIqMehCFgEDxByHV8TZ6GzD7Q" href="https://theconversation.com/why-protesters-should-be-wary-of-12-years-to-climate-breakdown-rhetoric-115489" rel="noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer" style="color: #555768; font-family: 'libre baskerville',serif;" target="_blank">as early as 2030</a><span style="color: #333333; font-family: 'libre baskerville',serif;"> should emissions continue unchecked. Such shocks </span><a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212096316300080&source=gmail&ust=1578433566521000&usg=AFQjCNEHZNppN2lCJ3ErJ-LdVud5AvdhYw" href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212096316300080" rel="noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer" style="color: #555768; font-family: 'libre baskerville',serif;" target="_blank">pose grave threats</a><span style="color: #333333; font-family: 'libre baskerville',serif;"> – rocketing food prices, civil unrest, major financial losses, starvation and death.</span></div>
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The most worrying thing about all of this is that compared to long- and medium-term climate models, we know relatively little about just how fragile the various parts of our clockwork global economy are in the near-term. By the UN’s admission, for example, the way we model the effects of crop failure <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.ipcc.ch/srccl/&source=gmail&ust=1578433566522000&usg=AFQjCNFVfjx9UMnxkL-hpEVdEYLx3LQ7WA" href="https://www.ipcc.ch/srccl/" rel="noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer" style="color: #555768;" target="_blank">is no longer viable</a>. We urgently need to better understand how our human systems will respond to shock events, which will occur with ever more <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://science.sciencemag.org/content/352/6293/1517&source=gmail&ust=1578433566522000&usg=AFQjCNEhOUfUEKboG_G7SnJ65S4axmneZA" href="https://science.sciencemag.org/content/352/6293/1517" rel="noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer" style="color: #555768;" target="_blank">frequency and severity</a> as the climate destabilises further.</div>
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Above all, much more prominence must be given to experts in <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-018-0156-3&source=gmail&ust=1578433566522000&usg=AFQjCNF3NGqkPuew9ycpQgItQJ3vnui8Tg" href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-018-0156-3" rel="noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer" style="color: #555768;" target="_blank">systems</a>, <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.foodsecurity.ac.uk/&source=gmail&ust=1578433566522000&usg=AFQjCNEzDMi2Lj8-oZhIVCo4zOt6BkjtvQ" href="https://www.foodsecurity.ac.uk/" rel="noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer" style="color: #555768;" target="_blank">food security</a>, migration, <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://shapeenergy.eu/index.php/publications/shape-energy-lexicon/&source=gmail&ust=1578433566522000&usg=AFQjCNGuHa1RjFaS5a782LmZoJ0CQW7gRw" href="https://shapeenergy.eu/index.php/publications/shape-energy-lexicon/" rel="noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer" style="color: #555768;" target="_blank">energy transitions</a>, supply chains and security, to develop our understanding of short-term responses within society. In particular, we need a better handle on how trigger events such as <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/ssefpa/v11y2019i5d10.1007_s12571-017-0693-z.html&source=gmail&ust=1578433566522000&usg=AFQjCNEwg8FdwJ-QfpPo6KT3hu90GV0jfg" href="https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/ssefpa/v11y2019i5d10.1007_s12571-017-0693-z.html" rel="noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer" style="color: #555768;" target="_blank">food price spikes</a>, droughts or forest fires, overlay onto the most vulnerable and <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://theconversation.com/environmental-stress-is-already-causing-death-this-chaos-map-shows-where-123796&source=gmail&ust=1578433566522000&usg=AFQjCNGk_Axz68tior9yxUuDi6FJQjGNEg" href="https://theconversation.com/environmental-stress-is-already-causing-death-this-chaos-map-shows-where-123796" rel="noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer" style="color: #555768;" target="_blank">politically unstable countries</a>.</div>
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As for our response to these locked-in threats, we must ask more immediate questions than what sort of society we want in the future given that we may have <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-03595-0&source=gmail&ust=1578433566522000&usg=AFQjCNHAh4kKx2jLHD9T2DPDsvpiFZ4x9Q" href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-03595-0" rel="noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer" style="color: #555768;" target="_blank">already lost control of the Earth’s climate</a>. </div>
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See also :<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://phys.org/news/2019-12-large-atmospheric-jet-stream-global.html&source=gmail&ust=1578433566522000&usg=AFQjCNFRgt7f9q9a0gQpSV3smL_YO-7GhQ" href="https://phys.org/news/2019-12-large-atmospheric-jet-stream-global.html" style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Newly identified jet-stream pattern could imperil global food supplies, says study</a></div>
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So, given the increasing likelihood of serious climate changes, what is an appropriate response? Professor Dennis Meadows, , co author of the ground breaking book, Limits to Growth and a long time advocate for sustainability has given this question serious thought. <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.peakprosperity.com/dennis-meadows-the-limits-to-growth/&source=gmail&ust=1578433566522000&usg=AFQjCNHFg0TqXjIJZhCmCGTN5GrLKGIrKQ" href="https://www.peakprosperity.com/dennis-meadows-the-limits-to-growth/" target="_blank"> In a recent interview</a> he said</div>
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Now, as to what’s happened in the last 15 years, well, we had at one time actually intended to write the 4<sup style="margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px;">th</sup> edition of the book. But I finally decided not to do that because sort of the conceptual framework which you use simply no longer applies. In the first three editions, we could show how current policies were leading to a period of overshoot decline, and we could lay out, at least in theory, some changes, cultural and other changes so it would avoid that outcome and produce not infinite long-term welfare, but at least sustain our species in its current form, more or less, for another century.</div>
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Well, in the last 15 years, there's been such an acceleration in demand for energy and materials, the natural resources of the earth have deteriorated sufficiently, and the population has grown<b> to the point where I no longer see ways realistically of changing the model to produce a so-called sustainable development scenario.</b></div>
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And it’s caused me, in my own thinking, to shift from this notion of sustainable development, which is actually a kind of an oxymoron anyway, over to the concept of resilience. How do you structure a system, a personal system, your family, your firm, your household, your town, your nation, so that it will absorb the shocks which are coming and continue to afford a basis for a humane existence?</div>
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Resilience has a benefit of being scalable. You can think about resilient policies at the household level. You can think about resilient policies at the national level. That’s less true over the long term for sustainable development. I don't know how an individual can think about sustainable development of a household over say the next 30, 40, 50 years in the midst of a nation which is pursuing exactly the opposite goal.</div>
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Looking at Australia, on can understand his lack of optimism. Here is a rich country which is staring devastation in the face and can presumably afford a transition, but whose leaders say there is no problem. Why? Perhaps because like most countries with large deposits of fossil fuels, (which help it become rich), their political system, the economic system, the social system, and the preservation of "the way things are" are dependent in selling as much of those fuels as possible. For many years , many of us had assumed that at some point things would get so bad that people (and people in power) would have an "aha" moment and start looking things in a different way. Australia will be the test case for that hypothesis. </div>
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Walterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18048738723369282833noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1190362411119958387.post-36725473247931293942019-11-29T15:50:00.000-08:002019-11-29T15:50:36.312-08:00Ten Years After<br />
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I'd love to change the world</div>
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- Ten Years After</div>
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<span style="line-height: 1.5;">And I'm sorry when I say that</span></div>
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<span style="line-height: 1.5;">straight to this very day</span></div>
It was the wrong way</div>
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Good news</div>
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<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2019/nov/28/eu-parliament-declares-climate-emergency?__twitter_impression%3Dtrue&source=gmail&ust=1575155021205000&usg=AFQjCNGhMZvJbIMBn0cpMNJK7wK8AYWSPQ" href="https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2019/nov/28/eu-parliament-declares-climate-emergency?__twitter_impression=true" target="_blank">EU parliament declares climate emergency</a></div>
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Greetings</div>
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Happy Black Friday!</div>
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<span style="line-height: 1.5;"> I just received the latest work from the Dark Mountain Project. It's their 10th anniversary. As you may recall 10 years ago, they famously put out a <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://dark-mountain.net/about/manifesto/&source=gmail&ust=1575155021205000&usg=AFQjCNFpfG-6Tzac2Hs3ysnMIifMPItcPg" href="https://dark-mountain.net/about/manifesto/" target="_blank">manifesto, </a></span><span style="line-height: 1.5;">See also <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://orionmagazine.org/article/confessions-of-a-recovering-environmentalist/&source=gmail&ust=1575155021205000&usg=AFQjCNEn9v6bv7kh5yPJiCw-aJ8OzRM7-w" href="https://orionmagazine.org/article/confessions-of-a-recovering-environmentalist/" target="_blank">this</a> </span><span style="line-height: 1.5;"> which suggested that the current approach to reversing the ecological damage reversing by humans was a losing battle, and the efforts to deal with climate change (new green deal) would probably do the ecosystem more harm than good.</span></div>
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Ten years later things haven't improved much. </div>
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Atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases once again reached new highs in 2018. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) says the increase in CO2 was just above the average rise recorded over the last decade. Levels of other warming gases, such as methane and nitrous oxide, have also surged by above-average continue to u t Since 1990 there’s been an increase of 43% in the warming effect on the climate of long-lived greenhouse gases.</blockquote>
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And, “There is no sign of a slowdown, let alone a decline, in greenhouse gases concentration in the atmosphere despite all the commitments under the Paris agreement on climate change.”</blockquote>
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Recently we passed the <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://theconversation.com/why-theres-more-greenhouse-gas-in-the-atmosphere-than-you-may-have-realised-118336&source=gmail&ust=1575155021205000&usg=AFQjCNGDNqd1UgpEQxEhf8tMR_dgimIFvA" href="https://theconversation.com/why-theres-more-greenhouse-gas-in-the-atmosphere-than-you-may-have-realised-118336" target="_blank">500 CO2 equivalence marker.</a> </div>
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<span style="line-height: 1.5;">Sea level keeps rising and recent studies show that<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/sea-level-rise-climate-central-study-906178/&source=gmail&ust=1575155021205000&usg=AFQjCNGYLFJ_szj5tvtOFoGG6ysimU7WRg" href="https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/sea-level-rise-climate-central-study-906178/" target="_blank"> by 2050, large cities in Asia will be flooded </a></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #353535; font-family: georgia,times,'times new roman',serif; font-size: 16px;">According to the new analysis, roughly three times as many people are at risk of being inundated by rising seas than previously reported — 150 million people are now living on land that will be below high tide by 2050. And this is a hopeful scenario, where warming is held to 2 degrees C and the ice sheets don’t collapse in the near future. In a more pessimistic scenario, the numbers double to 300 million people flooded out by 2050. <b>That is roughly equivalent to the entire population of the United States going underwater in the next three decades.</b></span></div>
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<span style="color: #303030; font-family: neuehaas,sans-serif; font-size: 18px;"><a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.technologyreview.com/f/614750/the-developing-world-has-hit-the-brakes-on-clean-energy/?utm_campaign%3Dsite_visitor.unpaid.engagement%26utm_source%3Dtwitter%26utm_medium%3Dsocial_share%26utm_content%3D2019-11-25&source=gmail&ust=1575155021205000&usg=AFQjCNE_8fGbePrYkM0IJ95ZrlTPG4tsig" href="https://www.technologyreview.com/f/614750/the-developing-world-has-hit-the-brakes-on-clean-energy/?utm_campaign=site_visitor.unpaid.engagement&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social_share&utm_content=2019-11-25" target="_blank">Clean-energy investments in the developing world plummeted last year while coal use reached a record high</a>.</span><span style="font-family: neuehaas, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px;"><br /></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: neuehaas, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px;"><a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.technologyreview.com/f/614750/the-developing-world-has-hit-the-brakes-on-clean-energy/?utm_campaign%3Dsite_visitor.unpaid.engagement%26utm_source%3Dtwitter%26utm_medium%3Dsocial_share%26utm_content%3D2019-11-25&source=gmail&ust=1575155021206000&usg=AFQjCNFbAOV5RDUDT5LCTtifeNytYDG3Dw" href="https://www.technologyreview.com/f/614750/the-developing-world-has-hit-the-brakes-on-clean-energy/?utm_campaign=site_visitor.unpaid.engagement&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social_share&utm_content=2019-11-25" rel="noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer" target="_blank"></a></span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #353535; font-family: georgia, times, times new roman, serif;"><a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://amp.ft.com/content/e2000050-0c7f-11ea-bb52-34c8d9dc6d84?__twitter_impression%3Dtrue&source=gmail&ust=1575155021206000&usg=AFQjCNEI-33lX1ggJvIgD84qxbRLhz6TKA" href="https://amp.ft.com/content/e2000050-0c7f-11ea-bb52-34c8d9dc6d84?__twitter_impression=true" target="_blank"><span style="font-size: 16px;">Current carbon credit program may provide little or no </span><span style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 24px;">environmental</span><span style="font-size: 16px;"> gain</span></a></span></span></div>
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provided little or no environmental gain, as they supported projects that would have happened anyway. That figure rose to 85 percent of projects under the UN’s Clean Development Mechanism</div>
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<span style="font-family: harding, palatino, times, times new roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px;">Recently climate </span><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 27px;">scientists</span><span style="font-size: 18px;"> have published </span></span><a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/nov/27/climate-emergency-world-may-have-crossed-tipping-points&source=gmail&ust=1575155021206000&usg=AFQjCNEuXg7xD18YbksJOpDOuZI2VVVKkA" href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/nov/27/climate-emergency-world-may-have-crossed-tipping-points" style="color: #222222; font-family: harding,palatino,times,'times new roman',serif; font-size: 18px;" target="_blank">a warning that the earth may be close, or have passed, to several climate tipping points</a><span style="font-family: harding, palatino, times, times new roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px;"> .</span></span></div>
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Prof Tim Lenton at the University of Exeter, the lead author of the article, said: “We might already have crossed the threshold for a cascade of interrelated tipping points. The simple version is the schoolkids [striking for climate action] are right: we are seeing potentially irreversible changes in the climate system under way, or very close.”</div>
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“As a scientist, I just want to tell it how it is,” he said. “It is not trying to be alarmist, but trying to treat the whole climate change problem as a risk management problem. It is what I consider the common sense way.”</div>
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Phil Williamson at the University of East Anglia, who did not contribute to the article, said: “The prognosis by Tim Lenton and colleagues is, unfortunately, fully plausible: that we might have already lost control of the Earth’s climate.”</div>
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The new article comes as the <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/nov/26/united-nations-global-effort-cut-emissions-stop-climate-chaos-2030&source=gmail&ust=1575155021206000&usg=AFQjCNFkUe7tUlOAubURXWrn3O40NWC18A" href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/nov/26/united-nations-global-effort-cut-emissions-stop-climate-chaos-2030" style="background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border-bottom-color: rgb(220, 220, 220); border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-width: 0.0625rem; color: #ab0613; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">UN warns action is very far</a> from stopping global temperature rise, with the <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/nov/05/most-countries-climate-plans-totally-inadequate-experts&source=gmail&ust=1575155021206000&usg=AFQjCNHIClBvoTVAe0fbbsM_mJFyDD3f5g" href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/nov/05/most-countries-climate-plans-totally-inadequate-experts" style="background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border-bottom-color: rgb(220, 220, 220); border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-width: 0.0625rem; color: #ab0613; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">world currently on track for 3C-4C</a>. The commentary lists nine tipping points that may have been activated.</div>
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<span style="color: #353535; font-family: georgia, times, times new roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5;">But, it seems that </span></span><a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://e360.yale.edu/features/the-new-climate-math-the-numbers-keep-getting-more-frightening&source=gmail&ust=1575155021206000&usg=AFQjCNFipdLE43Pz8luTzfQj0pRUWtFfYg" href="https://e360.yale.edu/features/the-new-climate-math-the-numbers-keep-getting-more-frightening" target="_blank"><span style="color: #353535; font-family: georgia, times, times new roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5;">politicians have decided that we can slowly add </span><span style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 24px;">renewable</span><span style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5;"> resources, and continue to use fossil </span></span><span style="font-family: georgia, times, times new roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 24px;">fuels</span></span><span style="color: #353535; font-family: georgia, times, times new roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5;"> as long as possible</span></span></a><span style="color: #353535; font-family: georgia, times, times new roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5;">.</span></span></div>
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And<b> if you think Obama might be embarrassed about that, you’d be wrong</b>. As the former president told a cheering Texas audience last year, “You wouldn’t always know it ,but it [oil and gas production] went up every year I was president,” he said. “That whole, ‘suddenly America’s like the biggest oil producer and the biggest gas,’ that was me, people.”</blockquote>
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Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau explained the logic most succinctly a couple of years ago, speaking to another crowd in Texas. “No country would find 173 billion barrels of oil in the ground and leave them there,” he said, referring to the amount of recoverable crude in Alberta’s tar sands region. “The resource will be developed.” </div>
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<span style="line-height: 1.5;"> The main climate proposal is to electrify everything. The fires in California demonstrate that if that means lots of </span><a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://calmatters.org/explainers/solving-california-wildfires-why-dont-we-do-these-things/&source=gmail&ust=1575155021206000&usg=AFQjCNFHYLF993Q-Qn7NBr9b7LQA77CzCg" href="https://calmatters.org/explainers/solving-california-wildfires-why-dont-we-do-these-things/" style="line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">power lines going through hit dry country, that could create it's own problems</a><span style="line-height: 1.5;">.</span></div>
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<span style="line-height: 1.5;">Of course, electricity is for stuff like electric vehicles <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.salon.com/2019/06/17/lithium-mining-for-green-electric-cars-is-leaving-a-stain-on-the-planet/&source=gmail&ust=1575155021206000&usg=AFQjCNG9dBAYweRQE2qp-x2arvYl0RQLCA" href="https://www.salon.com/2019/06/17/lithium-mining-for-green-electric-cars-is-leaving-a-stain-on-the-planet/" target="_blank">w</a></span><span style="line-height: 1.5;"><a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.salon.com/2019/06/17/lithium-mining-for-green-electric-cars-is-leaving-a-stain-on-the-planet/&source=gmail&ust=1575155021206000&usg=AFQjCNG9dBAYweRQE2qp-x2arvYl0RQLCA" href="https://www.salon.com/2019/06/17/lithium-mining-for-green-electric-cars-is-leaving-a-stain-on-the-planet/" target="_blank">hich require lots of new lithium mines</a></span></div>
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Last week, Bloomberg published a report detailing how the boom in lithium mining is irreversibly destroying the local environment of northern Chile’s Atacama desert. Mining for lithium means removing large amounts of water, which means depleting the water supply for locals. According to the report, the Tilopozo meadow in Chile used to be a shelter for shepherds traveling at night, yet has become barren due to lack of grass or water. That puts a severe strain on local farmers.</div>
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“We’re fooling ourselves if we call this sustainable and green mining,” Cristina Dorado, a Chilean biologist, told Bloomberg. “The lithium fever should slow down because it’s directly damaging salt flats, the ecosystem, and local communities.”</div>
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Cairn Energy Research Advisors estimates the lithium-ion industry is expected to grow from 100 gigawatt-hours (GWh) of annual production in 2017 to 800 GWh in 2027—not only as a result of electric cars but also because lithium is used in batteries to power various electrical and electronic goods, including mobile phones. Much of this will be mined from South America’s Lithium Triangle, which spans across Argentina, Bolivia and Chile, an area that is said to hold more than half the world’s supply of the metal beneath its salt flats. </div>
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<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.engineering.com/ElectronicsDesign/ElectronicsDesignArticles/ArticleID/17435/Will-Your-Electric-Car-Save-the-World-or-Wreck-It.aspx&source=gmail&ust=1575155021206000&usg=AFQjCNHszuw5IeOEhlQZ0qcpjfr8M2XEAg" href="https://www.engineering.com/ElectronicsDesign/ElectronicsDesignArticles/ArticleID/17435/Will-Your-Electric-Car-Save-the-World-or-Wreck-It.aspx" target="_blank">Also cobalt</a></div>
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<span style="background-color: white; font-family: montserrat,sans-serif; font-size: 15px;">Then there’s cobalt. In addition to the environmental concerns related to lithium production, cobalt mining is unequivocally destructive on multiple levels. Currently, half of the world’s cobalt is produced in the Republic of Congo. Concerning cobalt mining in the Congo region, journalists have revealed human and environmental abuses ranging from </span><a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/in-sight/wp/2018/02/28/the-cost-of-cobalt/?noredirect%3Don%26utm_term%3D.4ee29388271d&source=gmail&ust=1575155021206000&usg=AFQjCNEWCfkEkBkxBw3XU3SwqtholFUwXg" href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/in-sight/wp/2018/02/28/the-cost-of-cobalt/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.4ee29388271d" rel="noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer" style="background-color: white; color: black; font-family: montserrat,sans-serif; font-size: 15px;" target="_blank">child and slave labor</a><span style="background-color: white; font-family: montserrat,sans-serif; font-size: 15px;"> to </span><a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.wired.co.uk/article/lithium-batteries-environment-impact&source=gmail&ust=1575155021207000&usg=AFQjCNFc-vJ2CjCAQhYWx3-Np3aogpNtWQ" href="https://www.wired.co.uk/article/lithium-batteries-environment-impact" rel="noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer" style="background-color: white; color: black; font-family: montserrat,sans-serif; font-size: 15px;" target="_blank">toxic waste leakage</a><span style="background-color: white; font-family: montserrat,sans-serif; font-size: 15px;"> and radioactivity in cobalt mines. “In 2014, according to UNICEF, about 40,000 children were working in mines across southern DRC, many of them extracting cobalt,” </span><a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/jul/29/electric-cars-battery-manufacturing-cobalt-mining&source=gmail&ust=1575155021207000&usg=AFQjCNEnaPLrcWEbouGuW_Pm9kPRhQJ_Lw" href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/jul/29/electric-cars-battery-manufacturing-cobalt-mining" rel="noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer" style="background-color: white; color: black; font-family: montserrat,sans-serif; font-size: 15px;" target="_blank"><em>The Guardian</em></a><span style="background-color: white; font-family: montserrat,sans-serif; font-size: 15px;"> reported.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: montserrat, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 15px; line-height: 22.5px;"> All of which could make a person discouraged. In a recent article<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://thetyee.ca/Analysis/2019/11/12/Climate-Crisis-Realist-Memo/&source=gmail&ust=1575155021207000&usg=AFQjCNGM0jZFUtM_5Wm88LP-jZef4NdGPA" href="https://thetyee.ca/Analysis/2019/11/12/Climate-Crisis-Realist-Memo/" target="_blank"> William Reese professor of ecology, and ecological economics says</a> that we have placed ourselves in an untenable situation</span></span></div>
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<span style="color: #393939; font-family: miller-text,serif; font-size: 18px; line-height: 25.02px;">"Reducing fossil fuel use on a vastly sped-up schedule, in the absence of adequate substitutes and a comprehensive wind-down plan, would soon produce some combination of inadequate energy supplies, broken supply lines, reduced production, declining incomes, rising inequality, widespread unemployment, food and other resource shortages, at least local famines, civil unrest, abandoned cities, mass migrations, collapsed economies and geopolitical chaos.</span></blockquote>
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What politician is likely to let this scenario unfold? Would the public tolerate it?</div>
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As economists have long recognized, humans are spatial, temporal and social discounters — we naturally favour the here and now, and close relatives and friends, over distant places, merely possible futures and total strangers. Under what circumstances would hundreds of millions of people in scores of countries with disparate political philosophies and political ideologies — people who currently enjoy the “good life” — be induced simultaneously to risk wrecking their comfortable lives to stave off a climate or eco-crisis that many are not convinced is happening and, even if it is, it is perceived likely mainly to affect other people somewhere else?</div>
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And keep in mind, the world is committed to accommodating several additional billions who have yet to join the energy-addicted consumer party but are pounding on the door to be let in.</div>
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Perversely then, policy for climate disaster-avoidance seems designed to serve the capitalist growth economy and make the latter appear as the solution rather than cause of the problem. “Unfortunately,” as University of Vienna public policy professor Clive Spash <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.clivespash.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/2016-Spash-This-Changes-Nothing.pdf&source=gmail&ust=1575155021207000&usg=AFQjCNGXaAXKIKlycslmdh-4oQCaTXmRmQ" href="https://www.clivespash.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/2016-Spash-This-Changes-Nothing.pdf" style="background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-width: 1px; border-color: rgb(136, 136, 136) rgb(136, 136, 136) black; box-sizing: border-box; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">points out</a>, “many environmental non-governmental organisations have <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.clivespash.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/2016-Spash-This-Changes-Nothing.pdf&source=gmail&ust=1575155021207000&usg=AFQjCNGXaAXKIKlycslmdh-4oQCaTXmRmQ" href="https://www.clivespash.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/2016-Spash-This-Changes-Nothing.pdf" style="background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-width: 1px; border-color: rgb(136, 136, 136) rgb(136, 136, 136) black; box-sizing: border-box; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">bought</a> into this illogical reasoning.” (Note that many NGOs are dependent on the corporate sector for financial support.)</div>
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And this is why the international community — despite the Paris accord, Greta Thunberg, climate strikes and mass public protests — seems determined to stay its growth-driven fossil-fuelled course.</div>
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In these circumstances, the world can anticipate more and longer heat waves/droughts, desertification, tropical deforestation, melting permafrost, methane releases, regional water shortages, failing agriculture, regional famines, rising sea levels, the flooding (and eventual loss) of many coastal communities, abandonment of over-heated cities, civil unrest, mass migrations, collapsed economies and possible geopolitical chaos.</div>
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<span style="font-family: montserrat, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 15px; line-height: 22.5px;">Perhaps the Dark Mountain Project was on track 10 years ago, <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=http://paulkingsnorth.net/2019/11/20/the-earth-does-not-speak-in-prose/&source=gmail&ust=1575155021207000&usg=AFQjCNG6yxw3bPvCYL9aN650aehhkPbtnw" href="http://paulkingsnorth.net/2019/11/20/the-earth-does-not-speak-in-prose/" target="_blank">as Paul Kingsnorth acknowledged in this interview</a></span></span></div>
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<span style="color: #101820; font-family: Joanna,Georgia,serif; font-size: small; line-height: 28px;">CHARLOTTE DU CANN</span><span style="color: #101820; font-family: Joanna,Georgia,serif; font-size: small; line-height: 28px;"> Looking back at the decade, from the time of the manifesto to now, what strikes you as most significant in terms of the zeitgeist?</span><span style="color: #101820; font-family: Joanna,Georgia,serif; font-size: small; line-height: 28px;"> </span></div>
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PAUL KINGSNORTH Perhaps the most significant fact about the last decade is how much was said in the manifesto that has become pretty much widely accepted. In terms of the culture, it was quite a wild thing to be saying: that it is not possible to stop the collapse and that we need to write about the situation for real. </div>
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Now the kind of things we were publishing in the first books <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/28/opinion/extinction-rebellion-london.html&source=gmail&ust=1575155021207000&usg=AFQjCNGjGarlWoI8yxJcUI0DGFCyt_L9gw" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/28/opinion/extinction-rebellion-london.html" rel="noopener" style="color: #d75561; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">you can find in the New York Times</a> and the Guardian; in the fact that Extinction Rebellion are called Extinction Rebellion. Most people are saying: we are in the <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.resilience.org/stories/2018-12-17/the-big-picture/&source=gmail&ust=1575155021207000&usg=AFQjCNH_84x0icrLqh6u_adHsL-GzH4nQw" href="https://www.resilience.org/stories/2018-12-17/the-big-picture/" style="color: #d75561; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">catastrophe now, ecologically speaking</a>. Which is a shame because it would have been nice if we had been entirely wrong. </div>
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<span style="font-family: montserrat, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 15px; line-height: 22.5px;">Some wise person said "Rowing harder doesn't help if the boat is headed in the wrong direction"</span></span><div dir="ltr">
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<span style="font-family: harding, palatino, times, times new roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 1.5;">Which suggests we should </span><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 27px;">change</span><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 1.5;"> direction. </span></span><a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://thetyee.ca/Analysis/2019/11/12/Climate-Crisis-Realist-Memo/&source=gmail&ust=1575155021207000&usg=AFQjCNGM0jZFUtM_5Wm88LP-jZef4NdGPA" href="https://thetyee.ca/Analysis/2019/11/12/Climate-Crisis-Realist-Memo/" style="font-family: harding,palatino,times,'times new roman',serif; font-size: 18px; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Here are William Reese's suggestions</a></div>
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"So, where <em style="border-color: rgb(136,136,136); box-sizing: border-box;">might</em> we go from here? A rational world with a good grasp of reality would have begun articulating a long-term wind-down strategy 20 or 30 years ago. The needed global emergency plan would certainly have<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=http://www.paecon.net/PAEReview/issue87/Rees87.pdf&source=gmail&ust=1575155021207000&usg=AFQjCNHci0rhq_zSu-JixR3pA_vkb5-C2Q" href="http://www.paecon.net/PAEReview/issue87/Rees87.pdf" style="background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-width: 1px; border-color: rgb(136, 136, 136) rgb(136, 136, 136) black; box-sizing: border-box; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">included</a> most of the 11 realistic responses to the climate crisis listed below — which, even if implemented today would at least slow the coming unravelling. And no, the currently proposed <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.thebalance.com/green-new-deal-4582071&source=gmail&ust=1575155021207000&usg=AFQjCNF3qAv2mpNR8sNNOB11sP8cm1IJ1Q" href="https://www.thebalance.com/green-new-deal-4582071" style="background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-width: 1px; border-color: rgb(136, 136, 136) rgb(136, 136, 136) black; box-sizing: border-box; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">Green New Deal</a> won’t do it.</div>
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Here, then, is what an <em style="border-color: rgb(136,136,136); box-sizing: border-box;">effective</em> “Green New Deal” might look like:</div>
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1. Formal recognition of the end of material growth and the need to <em style="border-color: rgb(136,136,136); box-sizing: border-box;">reduce</em>the human ecological footprint;</div>
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2. Acknowledgement that, as long as we remain in overshoot — exploiting essential ecosystems faster than they can regenerate — sustainable production/consumption means less production/consumption;</div>
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3. Recognition of the theoretical and practical difficulties/impossibility of an all-green quantitatively equivalent energy transition;</div>
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4. Assistance to communities, families and individuals to facilitate the adoption of sustainable lifestyles (even North Americans lived happily on half the energy per capita in the 1960s that we use today);</div>
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5. Identification and implementation of strategies (e.g., taxes, fines) to encourage/force individuals and corporations to eliminate unnecessary fossil fuel use and reduce energy waste (half or more of energy “consumed” is <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2018/05/visualizing-u-s-energy-consumption-in-one-chart&source=gmail&ust=1575155021207000&usg=AFQjCNGzjL5ke6oAv8XOH1hFIgy0X67XmQ" href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2018/05/visualizing-u-s-energy-consumption-in-one-chart" style="background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-width: 1px; border-color: rgb(136, 136, 136) rgb(136, 136, 136) black; box-sizing: border-box; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">wasted</a> through inefficiencies and carelessness);</div>
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6. Programs to retrain the workforce for constructive employment in the new survival economy;</div>
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7. Policies to restructure the global and national economies to remain within the remaining “allowable” carbon budget while developing/improving sustainable energy alternatives;</div>
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8. Processes to allocate the remaining carbon budget (through rationing, quotas, etc.) fairly to essential uses only, such as food production, space/water heating, inter-urban transportation;</div>
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9. Plans to reduce the need for interregional transportation and increase regional resilience by re-localizing essential economic activity (de-globalization);</div>
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10. Recognition that equitable sustainability requires fiscal mechanisms for income/wealth redistribution;</div>
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11. A global population strategy to enable a smooth descent to the two to three billion that could live comfortably indefinitely within the biophysical means of nature.</div>
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Walterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18048738723369282833noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1190362411119958387.post-35119480555217787292019-10-15T15:36:00.000-07:002019-10-15T15:36:08.195-07:00Moonbeams...and fairy tails<br />
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Dear Mr Fantasy</div>
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play us a tune</div>
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something to make us all happy</div>
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We had it all</div>
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Just like Bogie and Bacall</div>
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_Bertie Higgens</div>
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<a href="http://epiloguemag.com/2019/10/gen-a/" rel="noreferrer noreferrer" target="_blank">Over 6 million people in 185 countries, from schoolchildren to trade-unionists, took to the streets demanding that political elites do something meaningful to address the climate crisis. Taken together, this was the largest protest the world has ever seen. </a></div>
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Public Service Announcement</div>
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<span style="color: black; font-size: 16px;">Dr. Sarah Myhre will deliver this year's Salem Peace Lecture. Her topic will be "</span><strong style="color: black; font-size: 16px;">Living, Loving, and Loathing on a Hot and Finite Planet: the Path Towards Climate Leadership</strong><span style="color: black; font-size: 16px;">." at </span><span style="color: black; font-size: 16px;">Willamette University's Hudson Hall, located in the Mary Stuart Rogers Music Center on the Willamette University campus, at 7:30 pm on Wednesday, October 16, 2019.</span><span style="color: black; font-size: 16px;"> </span></div>
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Greetings</div>
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Many of you have heard <a href="https://www.npr.org/2019/09/23/763452863/transcript-greta-thunbergs-speech-at-the-u-n-climate-action-summit" rel="noreferrer noreferrer" target="_blank">Gretta Thunberg's speech to the UN</a>. Here's a little snip.</div>
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 29px;">Entire ecosystems are collapsing. We are in the beginning of a mass extinction, and all you can talk about is money and fairy tales of eternal economic growth. How dare you!</span></div>
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Of course, she good reason to be upset. <span style="line-height: 1.5;">Here we are at merely 1 degree above pre industrial and things were already dangerous. </span></div>
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<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2019/national/climate-environment/climate-change-world/" rel="noreferrer noreferrer" target="_blank"><br /></a></div>
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<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2019/national/climate-environment/climate-change-world/" rel="noreferrer noreferrer" target="_blank">20% of they earth has already warmed by 1.5 degrees and 10% by 2 degrees.</a></div>
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<a href="https://amp.theguardian.com/global-development/2019/oct/02/revealed-hundreds-of-migrant-workers-dying-of-heat-stress-in-qatar-each-year?__twitter_impression=true" rel="noreferrer noreferrer" target="_blank">People are already dying from excess heat</a></div>
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<span style="line-height: 1.5;"><a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2019-10-09/californians-brace-for-unprecedented-power-shutdown-to-millions?__twitter_impression=true" rel="noreferrer noreferrer" target="_blank">800,000 homes in Berkley, San Jose, and Oakland loose electricity thanks to wild fire threat </a></span></div>
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A recent <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-49773869" rel="noreferrer noreferrer" target="_blank">report from the World Meteorology Association</a> indicates that climate change impacts on sea level are accelerating</div>
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<a href="https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/4/2/eaat2340" rel="noreferrer noreferrer" target="_blank">The Amazon is on fire, and near a tipping point where it would cease to be a forest last all. </a></div>
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<a href="https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/4/2/eaat2340" rel="noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer" target="_blank"></a></div>
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<span style="line-height: 1.5;"><a href="https://desdemonadespair.net/2019/09/australia-rainforest-burns-as-bushfires-arrive-early-queensland-faces-worst-fire-threat-in-recorded-history-this-isnt-the-new-normal-were-going-to-see.html" rel="noreferrer noreferrer" target="_blank">The Australian rainforest is on fire and faces the worst fires in recorded history.</a></span></div>
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<a href="https://desdemonadespair.net/2019/09/australia-rainforest-burns-as-bushfires-arrive-early-queensland-faces-worst-fire-threat-in-recorded-history-this-isnt-the-new-normal-were-going-to-see.html" rel="noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer" target="_blank"></a>Meanwhile</div>
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<a href="https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/" rel="noreferrer noreferrer" target="_blank">CO2 concentrations continue to accelerate</a></div>
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<a href="https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.engadget.com/amp/2019/04/03/renewable-energy-is-on-the-rise-but-so-are-fossil-fuels/">Fossil fuel use rising more than renewables</a></div>
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<a href="https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/New-Models-Point-More-Global-Warming-We-Expected">Recent recalibration of models show warming faster than expected</a></div>
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<span style="color: #1e2023; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.6;">Our planet’s climate may be more sensitive to increases in greenhouse gas than we realized, according to a new generation of global climate models being used for the next major assessment from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (</span><a href="http://www.ipcc.ch/" rel="noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer" style="color: #1088b0; font-size: 1rem; line-height: inherit;" target="_blank">IPCC</a><span style="color: #1e2023; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.6;">). The findings—which run counter to a 40-year consensus—are a troubling sign that future warming and related impacts could be even worse than expected.</span></div>
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Gretta doesn't give much credence to the "solutions" offered by the IPPC</div>
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<div style="border-image-outset: initial; border-image-repeat: initial; border-image-slice: initial; border-image-source: initial; border-image-width: initial; border: 0px; line-height: 1.55; margin-bottom: 1.5em; margin-left: 69.9844px; margin-top: 1.5em; max-width: 83.3333%; padding: 0px 10px; vertical-align: baseline; width: 699.984px;">
<span style="border-image-outset: initial; border-image-repeat: initial; border-image-slice: initial; border-image-source: initial; border-image-width: initial; border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The popular idea of cutting our emissions in half in ten years only gives us a 50 percent chance of staying below 1.5 degrees [Celsius], and the risk of setting off irreversible chain reactions beyond human control,” she said. “Fifty percent may be acceptable to you. But those numbers do not include tipping points, most feedback loops, additional warming hidden by toxic air pollution, or the aspects of equity and climate justice. They also rely on my generation sucking hundreds of billions of tons of your CO2 out of the air with technologies that barely exist.”</span></div>
<div style="border-image-outset: initial; border-image-repeat: initial; border-image-slice: initial; border-image-source: initial; border-image-width: initial; border: 0px; line-height: 1.55; margin-bottom: 1.5em; margin-left: 69.9844px; margin-top: 1.5em; max-width: 83.3333%; padding: 0px 10px; vertical-align: baseline; width: 699.984px;">
<span style="border-image-outset: initial; border-image-repeat: initial; border-image-slice: initial; border-image-source: initial; border-image-width: initial; border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">“How dare you pretend that this can be solved with just ‘business as usual’ and some technical solutions?” she asked finally. “There will not be any solutions or plans presented in line with these figures here today, because these numbers are too uncomfortable. And you are still not mature enough to tell it like it is.” </span></div>
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50% is not good enough. Which is a reasonable complaint. Would you board a plan that had a 50% chance of crashing. How about 25%? 10%?</div>
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The fact is there there are event with small chance but a large impact. For instance <a href="https://cleantechnica.com/2019/09/13/15-to-20-foot-sea-level-rise-possible-sooner-rather-than-later/?fbclid=IwAR39wi9na-NUwpBnk2T4R-VpTn2PHK8oKfPaPQXAWEwNwACCwXWUkxvug3M">abrupt sea level rise</a>, which could happen any time, as explained by Dr Richard Alloey</div>
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So who is Richard Alley? He is professor of geosciences at Penn State and a member of the Earth and Environmental Sciences Institute. His expertise is in glaciology, ice sheet stability, ice core analysis, and erosion of ice sheets. He tells <a href="https://medium.com/rollingstone/whats-another-way-to-say-we-re-f-cked-d3762aa152ee" rel="noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer" style="color: #474747; font-weight: 700;" target="_blank">Jeff Goodell of <em>Rolling Stone</em></a> that as bad as we think climate change might be in the coming decades,<b> the reality could be far worse. Within the lifetime of his students there’s some risk — small but not as small as we might hope — that the seas could rise as much as 15 to 20 feet.</b></div>
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If that happens, kiss goodbye virtually every major coastal city in the world. Miami, New Orleans, large parts of Boston and New York City and Silicon Valley, not to mention Shanghai, Jakarta, Ho Chi Min City, Lagos, Mumbai — all gone. ” I don’t mean ‘sunny day flooding’ where you get your feet wet on the way to the mall,” Goodell writes. “I mean these cities, and many more, become scuba diving sites.”</div>
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Why is Alley’s threat assessment greater than the people who are preparing reports for IPCC? Bureaucracy, mostly. They are written in collaboration with a large group of scientists and are often watered down by endless debate and consensus-building. In total there are 18 lead authors and 69 contributing authors on the chapter that considers sea-level rise. Also, by the time the final reports are written, the underlying data is often not the most current available.</div>
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<a href="https://cleantechnica.com/2019/02/12/warren-washington-michael-mann-awarded-2019-tyler-prize-for-environmental-achievement/" rel="noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer" style="color: #474747; font-weight: 700;" target="_blank">Michael E. Mann</a>, Alley’s colleague at Penn State, argues that most coastal areas are incapable of dealing effectively with even a 3 foot rise in ocean levels. “The US is not ready for a meter of sea level rise by 2100. Just look at what happened in the wake of Superstorm Sandy, Katrina, in Houston, or Puerto Rico,” he says.</div>
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Greta also seems to give <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/jeffmcmahon/2019/09/22/no-one-seemed-to-notice-greta-thunbergs-critique-of-the-green-new-deal/amp/?__twitter_impression=true">short shrift to "green growth" or new green deal </a></div>
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"Wherever I go I seem to be surrounded by fairytales. Business leaders, elected officials all across the political spectrum spending their time making up and telling bedtime stories that soothe us, that make us go back to sleep. These are ‘feel-good’ stories about how we are going to fix everything. How wonderful everything is going to be when we have ‘solved’ everything. But the problem we are facing is not that we lack the ability to dream, or to imagine a better world. The problem now is that we need to wake up. It’s time to face the reality, the facts, the science. </div>
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And the science doesn’t mainly speak of ‘great opportunities to create the society we always wanted’. It tells of unspoken human sufferings, which will get worse and worse the longer we delay action – unless we start to act now. And yes, of course a sustainable transformed world will include lots of new benefits. But you have to understand.<b> This is not primarily an opportunity to create new green jobs, new businesses or green economic growth. This is above all an emergency, </b>and not just any emergency. This is the biggest crisis humanity has ever faced.”</div>
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This is essentially the view of the climate situation laid out by University of Manitoba environmental scientist Vaclav Smil’s new book Growth, which was excerpted this week in New York magazine. “[N]o government has ever made policies with the biosphere in mind,” it reads. “No government has advocated moderate, subdued economic growth as its priority, even in the world’s most affluent countries, and no major political party has been serious about reconsidering the pace of economic growth.” <b>Seriousness, for Smil and other pessimistic climate analysts, would mean accepting a world of “deliberately declining levels and performances that would put civilization into a state of ‘regress.</b>’<span style="background-color: white; font-family: lava, georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1027px;">”</span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: lava, georgia, serif; font-size: 19px; letter-spacing: -0.1027px;"> </span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white; font-family: lava, georgia, serif; font-size: 19px; letter-spacing: -0.1027px;">Perhaps a state of "regress" is in the cards no matter what.</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white; font-family: lava, georgia, serif; font-size: 19px; letter-spacing: -0.1027px;">Here is a recent tweet from Kevin Anderson</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.027451); color: #14171a; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Segoe UI', Roboto, Ubuntu, 'Helvetica Neue', sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 19.6875px; white-space: pre-wrap;">Whatever the arguments for or against XR’s actions, <b>their demands for emission cuts more accurately reflect the rates & timeframe of 1.5°C </b>than those proposed by any government. <b>There is no non-extreme future</b>. Extreme 1.5-2°C mitigation or status quo & extreme impacts/adaptation.</span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: lava, georgia, serif; font-size: 19px; letter-spacing: -0.1027px;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.027451); color: #14171a; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Segoe UI', Roboto, Ubuntu, 'Helvetica Neue', sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 19.6875px; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.027451); color: #14171a; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Segoe UI', Roboto, Ubuntu, 'Helvetica Neue', sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 19.6875px; white-space: pre-wrap;">See <a href="https://rebellion.earth/the-truth/demands/">here</a> for Extinction Rebellion's demands</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white; font-family: lava, georgia, serif; font-size: 19px; letter-spacing: -0.1027px;">"</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 'Crimson Text', Georgia, serif; font-size: 23px; line-height: 28.75px;">Government must act now to halt biodiversity loss and reduce greenhouse gas emissions to net zero by 2025.</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: lava, georgia, serif;"><span style="font-size: 19px; letter-spacing: -0.1027px;">Here is one </span><span style="font-size: 19px; letter-spacing: -0.1027px; line-height: 28.5px;">version</span><span style="font-size: 19px; letter-spacing: -0.1027px;"> of the "</span><span style="font-size: 19px; letter-spacing: -0.1027px; line-height: 28.5px;">extreme</span><span style="font-size: 19px; letter-spacing: -0.1027px;"> future" of the status quo, <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-07586-5?fbclid=IwAR1qd0gD98NNOs0S2929UMtbSXwdJdpKsOZ9I_CUEobfD1jluZdtcDelEAg">from Nature</a>:</span></span></span></div>
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Three lines of evidence suggest that global warming will be faster than projected in the recent IPCC special report.</div>
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First, greenhouse-gas emissions are still rising. In 2017, industrial carbon dioxide emissions are estimated to have reached about 37 gigatonnes<span style="font-size: 12.75px; line-height: 0; vertical-align: baseline;"><a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-07586-5?fbclid=IwAR1qd0gD98NNOs0S2929UMtbSXwdJdpKsOZ9I_CUEobfD1jluZdtcDelEAg#ref-CR2" style="color: #006699; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">2</a></span>. This puts them on track with the highest emissions trajectory the IPCC has modelled so far. This dark news means that the next 25 years are poised to warm at a rate of 0.25–0.32 °C per decade<span style="font-size: 12.75px; line-height: 0; vertical-align: baseline;"><a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-07586-5?fbclid=IwAR1qd0gD98NNOs0S2929UMtbSXwdJdpKsOZ9I_CUEobfD1jluZdtcDelEAg#ref-CR3" style="color: #006699; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">3</a></span>. That is faster than the 0.2 °C per decade that we have experienced since the 2000s, and which the IPCC used in its special report.</div>
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Second, governments are cleaning up air pollution faster than the IPCC and most climate modellers have assumed. For example, China reduced sulfur dioxide emissions from its power plants by 7–14% between 2014 and 2016 (ref. <span style="font-size: 12.75px; line-height: 0; vertical-align: baseline;"><a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-07586-5?fbclid=IwAR1qd0gD98NNOs0S2929UMtbSXwdJdpKsOZ9I_CUEobfD1jluZdtcDelEAg#ref-CR4" style="color: #006699; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">4</a></span>). Mainstream climate models had expected them to rise. Lower pollution is better for crops and public health<span style="font-size: 12.75px; line-height: 0; vertical-align: baseline;"><a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-07586-5?fbclid=IwAR1qd0gD98NNOs0S2929UMtbSXwdJdpKsOZ9I_CUEobfD1jluZdtcDelEAg#ref-CR5" style="color: #006699; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">5</a></span>. But aerosols, including sulfates, nitrates and organic compounds, reflect sunlight. This shield of aerosols has kept the planet cooler, possibly by as much as 0.7 °C globally<span style="font-size: 12.75px; line-height: 0; vertical-align: baseline;"><a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-07586-5?fbclid=IwAR1qd0gD98NNOs0S2929UMtbSXwdJdpKsOZ9I_CUEobfD1jluZdtcDelEAg#ref-CR6" style="color: #006699; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">6</a></span>.</div>
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Third, there are signs that the planet might be entering a natural warm phase that could last for a couple of decades. The Pacific Ocean seems to be warming up, in accord with a slow climate cycle known as the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation<span style="font-size: 12.75px; line-height: 0; vertical-align: baseline;"><a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-07586-5?fbclid=IwAR1qd0gD98NNOs0S2929UMtbSXwdJdpKsOZ9I_CUEobfD1jluZdtcDelEAg#ref-CR7" style="color: #006699; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">7</a></span>. This cycle modulates temperatures over the equatorial Pacific and over North America. Similarly, the mixing of deep and surface waters in the Atlantic Ocean (the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation) looks to have weakened since 2004, on the basis of data from drifting floats that probe the deep ocean<span style="font-size: 12.75px; line-height: 0; vertical-align: baseline;"><a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-07586-5?fbclid=IwAR1qd0gD98NNOs0S2929UMtbSXwdJdpKsOZ9I_CUEobfD1jluZdtcDelEAg#ref-CR8" style="color: #006699; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">8</a></span>. Without this mixing, more heat will stay in the atmosphere rather than going into the deep oceans, as it has in the past.</div>
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These three forces reinforce each other. <b>We estimate that rising greenhouse-gas emissions, along with declines in air pollution, bring forward the estimated date of 1.5 °C of warming to around 2030, with the 2 °C boundary reached by 2045. These could happen sooner with quicker shedding of air pollutants.</b> Adding in natural decadal fluctuations raises the odds of blasting through 1.5 °C by 2025 to at least 10% (ref. <span style="font-size: 12.75px; line-height: 0; vertical-align: baseline;"><a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-07586-5?fbclid=IwAR1qd0gD98NNOs0S2929UMtbSXwdJdpKsOZ9I_CUEobfD1jluZdtcDelEAg#ref-CR9" style="color: #006699; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">9</a></span>). By comparison, the IPCC assigned probabilities of 17% and 83% for crossing the 1.5 °C mark by 2030 and 2052, respectively.</div>
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So, 2 degree by 2045, that's not so bad, is it? Here's<a href="https://m.huffpost.com/us/entry/7056418/amp"> climate scientist Christopher Reyer, one of the co-authors of "Turn Down the Heat: Confronting the New Climate Normal"</a></div>
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"Two degrees is not a picnic either. Imagine events like the 2003 European heat wave, the 2010 Russian heat wave which had <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2010/08/06/world/europe/06russia.html" rel="nofollow" style="box-shadow: rgb(13, 190, 152) 0px -2px 0px inset; box-sizing: border-box; color: black; text-decoration: none;">repercussions on the global wheat market</a>, and Hurricane Katrina, all of them happening simultaneously everywhere in the world."</div>
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Walterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18048738723369282833noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1190362411119958387.post-11176087924777266422019-08-29T11:00:00.000-07:002019-08-29T11:00:07.915-07:00I wish I had a river I could skate away on<br />
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #3c4043; font-family: roboto-regular, helveticaneue, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; max-height: 999999px;">Little darling, I feel that ice is slowly melting</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #3c4043; font-family: roboto-regular, helveticaneue, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; max-height: 999999px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #3c4043; font-family: roboto-regular, helveticaneue, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; max-height: 999999px;">Little darling, it seems like years since it's been clear</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #3c4043; font-family: roboto-regular, helveticaneue, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; max-height: 999999px;"> - The Beatles, </span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #3c4043; font-family: roboto-regular, helveticaneue, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; max-height: 999999px;"><span style="max-height: 999999px;">Meltdown expected, the wheat is growin' thin</span><br style="max-height: 999999px;" /><span style="max-height: 999999px;">Engines stop running, but I have no fear</span><br style="max-height: 999999px;" /><span style="max-height: 999999px;">'Cause London is drowning, and I, I live by the river</span></span></div>
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Dates to remember</div>
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September 4 <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.cnn.com/2019/08/27/politics/cnn-climate-crisis-town-hall-democrats/index.html&source=gmail&ust=1567184722194000&usg=AFQjCNGM5AJFPWULzfvGMHTsLzsQGugsxQ" href="https://www.cnn.com/2019/08/27/politics/cnn-climate-crisis-town-hall-democrats/index.html" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">CNN Candidate Town Hall on Climate</a></div>
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September 20-27 <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://globalclimatestrike.net/usa/&source=gmail&ust=1567184722194000&usg=AFQjCNGXnODiRg0vrelLUeiZpvuejRMaGQ" href="https://globalclimatestrike.net/usa/" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">Climate Strike</a></div>
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Greetings</div>
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It was about 100 degrees here yesterday. </div>
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And<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/28/climate/fire-amazon-africa-siberia-worldwide.html%23click%3Dhttps://t.co/wZwO9cVGF6&source=gmail&ust=1567184722194000&usg=AFQjCNEd0FFuyUbUopQXAB-ViRPQWtzf6w" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/28/climate/fire-amazon-africa-siberia-worldwide.html#click=https://t.co/wZwO9cVGF6" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank"> the Amazon, Siberia, and Indonesia are all on fire </a></div>
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So, maybe its a good to think about ice. The <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://grist.org/article/see-the-crazy-visuals-coming-out-of-greenlands-heat-wave-right-now/&source=gmail&ust=1567184722194000&usg=AFQjCNGwtTR6DCAC50oW42yD5ofqql77yg" href="https://grist.org/article/see-the-crazy-visuals-coming-out-of-greenlands-heat-wave-right-now/" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">melting ice in Greenland</a> is getting a lot of attention, with good reason</div>
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Glaciers just aren't acting the way they should. see <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/alarming-sonar-results-show-glaciers-may-be-melting-faster-than-we-expected/?fbclid%3DIwAR0JM9MuibritpduZ69-vIWmXgWvx0Hd6YgGqg4cyH5qAlJ4-C6cbI19G-o&source=gmail&ust=1567184722194000&usg=AFQjCNHXRe1Y4j2oW9sXA_XbG0anfVBtlg" href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/alarming-sonar-results-show-glaciers-may-be-melting-faster-than-we-expected/?fbclid=IwAR0JM9MuibritpduZ69-vIWmXgWvx0Hd6YgGqg4cyH5qAlJ4-C6cbI19G-o" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">here</a> and <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://glacierhub.org/2019/08/22/alaskan-glaciers-are-melting-twice-as-fast-as-models-predicted/&source=gmail&ust=1567184722194000&usg=AFQjCNEZd76ms_zJEpF8i2q4ByI0ajBXkw" href="https://glacierhub.org/2019/08/22/alaskan-glaciers-are-melting-twice-as-fast-as-models-predicted/" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">here</a></div>
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<span style="color: #323232; font-family: georgia, serif; font-size: 18px;">Now, however, a team of researchers has figured out how to directly probe these melt processes and has tested the method out on one glacier in Alaska. What it found, </span><a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://science.sciencemag.org/content/365/6451/369.abstract&source=gmail&ust=1567184722194000&usg=AFQjCNEt-JiLZ8b88zs_8y8DtsveiSAX6A" href="https://science.sciencemag.org/content/365/6451/369.abstract" rel="noreferrer noreferrer" style="border-bottom: 1px dotted rgb(101, 101, 101); color: #656565; font-family: georgia, serif; font-size: 18px; outline: none;" target="_blank">published this week in <em style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Science</em></a><em style="background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; color: #323232; font-family: georgia, serif; font-size: 18px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">,</em><span style="color: #323232; font-family: georgia, serif; font-size: 18px;"> is worrying: the glacier is melting far faster than current theories had suggested “<b>The melt rates that we measured were about 10 to 100 times larger than what theory predicted,</b>” says lead study author David A. Sutherland, an oceanographer at the University of Ore</span></div>
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But it's not just the arctic . In fact,<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://time.com/5622632/thwaites-glacier-antarctica-melting/?xid%3Dtcoshare&source=gmail&ust=1567184722194000&usg=AFQjCNHfgWFJVf-6s5aJR1puc0fxD7nKYQ" href="https://time.com/5622632/thwaites-glacier-antarctica-melting/?xid=tcoshare" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank"> Antarctica is also melting rapidly</a>.</div>
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<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.pnas.org/content/116/29/14414&source=gmail&ust=1567184722194000&usg=AFQjCNFABwEFLBOQwuJ9X6ayhN3rc0pOjQ" href="https://www.pnas.org/content/116/29/14414" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">GRADUAL ANTARCTIC SEA ICE INCREASES [HAVE BEEN] FOLLOWED BY DECREASES AT RATES FAR EXCEEDING THE RATES SEEN IN THE ARCTIC</a></blockquote>
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“A newly completed 40-y record of satellite observations is used to quantify changes in Antarctic sea ice coverage since the late 1970s. Sea ice spreads over vast areas and has major impacts on the rest of the climate system, reflecting solar radiation and restricting ocean/atmosphere exchanges. The satellite record reveals that a gradual, decades-long overall increase in Antarctic sea ice extents reversed in 2014, with subsequent rates of decrease in 2014–2017 far exceeding the more widely publicized decay rates experienced in the Arctic. The rapid decreases reduced the Antarctic sea ice extents to their lowest values in the 40-y record, both on a yearly average basis (record low in 2017) and on a monthly basis (record low in February 2017).”</blockquote>
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Of course one effect of ice melting is sea level rise. </div>
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Here's a recent presentation on sea-level rise, by <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.johnenglander.net/sea-level-rise-blog/my-royal-institution-video-goes-viral/&source=gmail&ust=1567184722194000&usg=AFQjCNHO4HN3PVHiwqp1NI9SCb4773n6hQ" href="https://www.johnenglander.net/sea-level-rise-blog/my-royal-institution-video-goes-viral/" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">John Englander</a></div>
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He makes the point that the melting of the glaciers is now unstoppable. There is so much heat in the ocean and the air that it is just a matter of time before all melts and the sea rises 120 meters. We just don't know when. </div>
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Portland has an elevation of 50 feet, less than 20 meters, Salem is 154 around 30 meters. </div>
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He says he expects around 1 meter by 2050. But who knows? It moves by fits and starts, slow for a while fast for a while. </div>
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And here's a nice summary from <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.counterpunch.org/2019/08/13/sea-level-rise/&source=gmail&ust=1567184722194000&usg=AFQjCNHuBLVA9rEWCzv2Nne2NxGtUhExmQ" href="https://www.counterpunch.org/2019/08/13/sea-level-rise/" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">Counterpunch</a></div>
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Englander’s key points:</div>
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1. Sea level never rises smoothly. It’s not a straight line or a curved line. There are inflection points when it suddenly rises. So far, that has not been experienced. In fact, over the past 100 years, temps are up 1°C and sea-level rise is only up 4 inches.</div>
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2. Sea level has been stable, at current levels, throughout human recorded history for 5,000+ years.</div>
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3. Thus, it’s very difficult for people to imagine a change in sea level, especially after 5,000 years of rock-solid stability.</div>
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Today’s big problem: Sea levels are now (today) at an early stage of exponential growth, meaning, the rate of growth is doubling, cycle-by-cycle, for the first time in known history. Based upon satellite recordings since 1993: sea-level rise 1993-98 +1.5MM/yr. 1998-2011 +3.2MM/yr. 2011-2018 5.0MM/yr. <b>That’s nearly double every cycle, which is an exponential function, and it’s trouble, very-very big trouble.</b></div>
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Exponential. As <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Albert_Allen_Bartlett" style="color: #1155cc;">Professor Al Bartlet</a>t has said</div>
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<span style="background-color: #f2f3f0; color: #261b0e; font-family: verdana, geneva, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function."</span></div>
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<span style="color: #261b0e; font-family: verdana, geneva, arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">So, suppose sea level rise were to double every ten years. So 5 MM in 2020. 10 MM in 2030. etc By 2080 its 3 meters. 2100 its 12 meters. Portland goes under in 2110, when it hits 24 M</span><br />
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Melting floating ice doesn't affect sea level, but does increase the amount of blue water. A<span style="font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 12.8px;"> <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://scripps.ucsd.edu/news/research-highlight-loss-arctics-reflective-sea-ice-will-advance-global-warming-25-years?fbclid%3DIwAR0WElgqsgznSiHzel9gZTXbFKWOyx8BvjmdOTFTGu5wmL6dQqZtBT_lOas&source=gmail&ust=1567184722194000&usg=AFQjCNHHf4mt9cUiP-jbfrMM4lTmFVQfmA" href="https://scripps.ucsd.edu/news/research-highlight-loss-arctics-reflective-sea-ice-will-advance-global-warming-25-years?fbclid=IwAR0WElgqsgznSiHzel9gZTXbFKWOyx8BvjmdOTFTGu5wmL6dQqZtBT_lOas" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">new study from Scripp</a>s tells us the likely impact</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: #faf9f8; color: #46484a; font-family: "helvetica neue", helvetica, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px;">Losing the reflective power of Arctic sea ice will lead to warming equivalent to one trillion tons of CO2 and<b> advance the 2ºC threshold by 25 years.</b> Any rational policy would make preventing this a top climate priority for world leaders,” said Ramanathan, a professor of atmospheric and climate sciences at Scripps.</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: #faf9f8;"><span style="color: #46484a; font-family: helvetica neue, helvetica, arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"> 2 degrees 25 years sooner than currently predicted? Hmmm... </span></span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: #faf9f8;"><span style="color: #46484a; font-family: helvetica neue, helvetica, arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">This means that after the blue ocean event, temperatures rise quickly</span></span></span>. A <a href="https://phys.org/news/2019-02-arctic-sea-ice-loss-linked.html" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">recent study</a> has linked sea ice melting to abrupt climate change such as a spike in temperature .</div>
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<span style="color: #212438; font-family: quicksand, sans-serif; font-size: 18px;">..from this they determined that sea ice changes were massively significant in past </span><a href="https://phys.org/tags/climate/" style="border-bottom: 1px dotted rgb(0, 0, 0); color: black; font-family: quicksand, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">climate</a> <span style="color: #212438; font-family: quicksand, sans-serif; font-size: 18px;">change events in the North Atlantic. These periods, called Dansgaard-Oeschger events2, are some of the fastest and largest abrupt climate changes ever recorded. During some of these events,<b> Greenland temperatures are likely to have increased by 16 degrees Celsius in less than a decade.</b></span></div>
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2030–2050: Emissions peak in 2030, and start to fall consistent with an 80 percent reduction in fossil-fuel energy intensity by 2100 compared to 2010 energy intensity. This leads to warming of 2.4°C by 2050, consistent with the Xu and Ramanathan “baseline-fast” scenario. However, another 0.6°C of warming occurs taking the total to 3°C by 2050 — due to the activation of a number of carbon-cycle feedbacks and higher levels of ice albedo and cloud feedbacks than current models assume. [It should be noted that this is far from an extreme scenario: the low-probability, high-impact warming (five percent probability) can exceed 3.5–4°C by 2050 in the Xu and Ramanathan scheme.] </div>
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You can track air temperature rising<a href="https://tamino.wordpress.com/2019/01/26/global-temperature-2018/" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank"> here</a>. As you can see the same issue of exponential curve arises here.</div>
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According to this smoothed estimate, the <i>trend</i> — which is where we look for climate change (man-made or not) — has shown two episodes of warming since the year 1900. The first, from about 1910 to 1945, it rose roughly 0.43°C, while from about 1975 to now it has risen around 0.84°C. <b>That’s basically twice as much.</b></div>
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So, when will we see a blue ocean event ? </div>
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Current models say<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2019/02/190227111128.htm&source=gmail&ust=1567184722194000&usg=AFQjCNEdMfu3HSYKrBFp4qXj5RGIye8RdQ" href="https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2019/02/190227111128.htm" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank"> between 2030 and 3050, closer to 2030 </a>being more likely</div>
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<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2019/8/2/20751255/2019-democratic-debate-joe-biden-jay-inslee-climate-change&source=gmail&ust=1567184722194000&usg=AFQjCNEg2rIGMDUiXVKqYN4h9e4MLXuVEw" href="https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2019/8/2/20751255/2019-democratic-debate-joe-biden-jay-inslee-climate-change" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">Dave Roberts put out a nice post </a>explaining that what it will take is not evolutionary but revolutionary. No pain no gain. <span style="font-size: 12.8px;">He says</span></div>
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"The facts of climate change mean that there is no such thing as a 'moderate' position on it. You do the radical things necessary to meet IPCC targets or you sit back & let radical impacts unfold."</div>
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "source sans pro", -apple-system, blinkmacsystemfont, "segoe ui", roboto, "helvetica neue", helvetica, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px;">"Most Americans say they want the U.S. to take “aggressive” action to stop climate change, yet </span><a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://graphics.reuters.com/USA-ELECTION-CLIMATECHANGE/0100B03104Z/index.html&source=gmail&ust=1567184722194000&usg=AFQjCNFyi8ybnSjGWnUGGGzWftJ76LrgYg" href="https://graphics.reuters.com/USA-ELECTION-CLIMATECHANGE/0100B03104Z/index.html" style="color: #1155cc; font-family: "source sans pro", -apple-system, blinkmacsystemfont, "segoe ui", roboto, "helvetica neue", helvetica, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px;" target="_blank">only a minority would put up with even small increases in their taxes or electricity bills to do so.</a><br /><div dir="auto">
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Bernie's Green New Deal.? $ <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://grist.org/article/bernie-sanders-green-new-deal-looks-like-a-trillion-bucks-ok-16-trillion/&source=gmail&ust=1567184722194000&usg=AFQjCNE9empm4OUKxtKyn3hdYQJT51l95Q" href="https://grist.org/article/bernie-sanders-green-new-deal-looks-like-a-trillion-bucks-ok-16-trillion/" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">16 trillion</a></div>
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So, its probably going to get hotter</div>
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For a view into our future see "Can we survive extreme heat?" . <a href="https://www.rollingstone.com/culture/culture-features/climate-crisis-goodell-survive-extreme-heat-875198/amp/?__twitter_impression=true" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">here</a>. " It starts with a blackout " </div>
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“Hurricane Katrina caused a cascading failure of urban infrastructure in New Orleans that no one really predicted,” Chester explains. “Levees broke. People were stranded. Rescue operations failed. Extreme heat could lead to a similar cascading failure in Phoenix, exposing vulnerabilities and weaknesses in the region’s infrastructure that are difficult to foresee.”</div>
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In Chester’s view, a Phoenix heat catastrophe begins with a blackout. It could be triggered any number of ways. During periods of extreme heat, power demand surges, straining the system. Inevitably, something will fail. A wildfire will knock out a power line. A substation will blow. A hacker might crash the grid. In 2011, a utility worker doing routine maintenance near Yuma knocked out a 500-kilovolt power line that shut off power to millions of people for up to 12 hours, including virtually the entire city of San Diego, causing economic losses of $100 million. A major blackout in Phoenix could easily cost much more, says Chester.</div>
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But it’s not just about money. When the city goes dark, the order and convenience of modern life begin to fray. Without air conditioning, temperatures in homes and office buildings soar. (Ironically, new, energy-efficient buildings are tightly sealed, making them dangerous heat traps.) Traffic signals go out. Highways gridlock with people fleeing the city. Without power, gas pumps don’t work, leaving vehicles stranded with empty tanks. Water pipes crack from the heat, and water pumps fail, leaving people scrounging for fresh water. Hospitals overflow with people suffering from heat exhaustion and heatstroke. If there are wildfires, the air will become hazy and difficult to breathe. If a blackout during extreme heat continues for long, rioting, looting, and arson could begin.</div>
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Walterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18048738723369282833noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1190362411119958387.post-44480961636815456512019-06-27T14:46:00.002-07:002019-06-27T14:46:18.360-07:00Comfortably Numb<br />
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Am I in heaven </div>
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or am I in Miami?</div>
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-Martin Mull</div>
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Lets take the whole day off</div>
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-Oingo Boingo</div>
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Greetings</div>
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Good news</div>
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Oregon bil<a href="https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2019/6/5/18650155/climate-change-oregon-carbon-cap-trade-california" style="color: #1155cc;">l gets nice coverage</a> and passes house But.....</div>
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<a href="https://earther.gizmodo.com/jay-inslees-latest-climate-plan-would-be-the-beginning-1835772790" style="color: #1155cc;">Jay Inslee releases an ambitious climate plan</a></div>
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<span style="font-family: sans-serif;">Greetings </span></div>
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I must confess I missed the 1st Dem debate. But I hear that MSNBC and the Dems have a good grip on the important issues. Climate Change got 7 minutes. See <a href="https://newrepublic.com/article/154334/first-democratic-debate-failed-planet" style="color: #1155cc;">here</a> It must not be a real problem.</div>
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So, what are they missing? <a href="https://grist.org/article/the-world-is-hot-on-fire-and-flooding-climate-change-is-here/" style="color: #1155cc;"> Eric Holthaus gives a good overview </a></div>
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It’s the hottest month of <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.climate.gov/news-features/climate-qa/what%25E2%2580%2599s-hottest-earth-has-been-%25E2%2580%259Clately%25E2%2580%259D&source=gmail&ust=1561753314716000&usg=AFQjCNFFeFx-7_C9cYBqSglJ5q8GoDOa7w" href="https://www.climate.gov/news-features/climate-qa/what%E2%80%99s-hottest-earth-has-been-%E2%80%9Clately%E2%80%9D" rel="noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">one of the hottest years in the history of human civilization</a>, and unusual wildfires are sprouting up all over the map. <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/jul/18/sweden-calls-for-help-as-arctic-circle-hit-by-wildfires&source=gmail&ust=1561753314716000&usg=AFQjCNHxATZXMM82OG2Nfj0Aj1GvVjvUQA" href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/jul/18/sweden-calls-for-help-as-arctic-circle-hit-by-wildfires" rel="noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">Sweden</a> has called for emergency assistance from the rest of the European Union to help battle massive wildfires <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/jul/18/sweden-calls-for-help-as-arctic-circle-hit-by-wildfires&source=gmail&ust=1561753314716000&usg=AFQjCNHxATZXMM82OG2Nfj0Aj1GvVjvUQA" href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/jul/18/sweden-calls-for-help-as-arctic-circle-hit-by-wildfires" rel="noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">burning north of the Arctic Circle</a>. Across the western United States, 50 major wildfires are burning in parts of 14 states, fueled by <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://grist.org/article/weve-entered-the-era-of-fire-tsunamis/&source=gmail&ust=1561753314716000&usg=AFQjCNEWcMoat5mf9t6DjgWHTkm7ivd4Og" href="https://grist.org/article/weve-entered-the-era-of-fire-tsunamis/" rel="noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">severe drought</a>. The wildfires burning in Siberia earlier this month sent smoke plumes from across the Arctic <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.springfieldnewssun.com/news/local/smoke-from-siberian-wildfires-reaches-new-england/EasF4dyJi28aRRo2aowTQL/&source=gmail&ust=1561753314716000&usg=AFQjCNHEGYGosFQjMmCDeQmopjPPsV690g" href="https://www.springfieldnewssun.com/news/local/smoke-from-siberian-wildfires-reaches-new-england/EasF4dyJi28aRRo2aowTQL/" rel="noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">all the way to New England</a>, four thousand miles away. Last year, <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://grist.org/article/greenland-the-land-of-ice-and-snow-is-burning/&source=gmail&ust=1561753314716000&usg=AFQjCNFwPrFFxC-yj0H0gN1X2IuAMAUo-w" href="https://grist.org/article/greenland-the-land-of-ice-and-snow-is-burning/" rel="noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">big wildfires burned in Greenland</a> for the first time in recorded history.</div>
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And then there are the rains. In Laos, after days of downpours, a hydropower dam that was under construction <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://t.co/KKxrc6sRuE&source=gmail&ust=1561753314716000&usg=AFQjCNGDS65RNa2o5q3EJmn3fbYCfGSUlw" href="https://t.co/KKxrc6sRuE" rel="noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">collapsed on Tuesday</a>. Hundreds of people have been reported missing. Higher global temperatures increase the evaporation rate, putting more water vapor in the atmosphere and <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://t.co/dYo8pw3SXS&source=gmail&ust=1561753314716000&usg=AFQjCNHm9keAr710uAXko0nGVlelSqAlyA" href="https://t.co/dYo8pw3SXS" rel="noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">making extreme downpours more common</a>.</div>
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In recent weeks, high-temperature records have been set <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.independent.co.uk/environment/heatwave-temperature-records-broken-europe-north-america-eurasia-middle-east-latest-a8432226.html&source=gmail&ust=1561753314716000&usg=AFQjCNHNsexyNjsg_yNrWQ6tFKCauBD-RQ" href="https://www.independent.co.uk/environment/heatwave-temperature-records-broken-europe-north-america-eurasia-middle-east-latest-a8432226.html" rel="noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">on nearly every continent</a>. On Monday, Japan had <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://t.co/k1Jcv1BqeW&source=gmail&ust=1561753314716000&usg=AFQjCNG_FJ7LD4Ntqn9FxHn3TszlLgjiAw" href="https://t.co/k1Jcv1BqeW" rel="noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">its hottest temperature in recorded history</a> — 106 degrees Fahrenheit — just days after <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/inpictures/japan-struggles-wake-worst-flooding-decades-180709141021781.html&source=gmail&ust=1561753314716000&usg=AFQjCNETPtWRgbZ1TqOqk5KRI8ex_Yn6SA" href="https://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/inpictures/japan-struggles-wake-worst-flooding-decades-180709141021781.html" rel="noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">one of the worst flooding disasters the country has ever seen.</a></div>
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Algeria has recorded the <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2018/07/06/africa-may-have-witnessed-its-all-time-hottest-temperature-thursday-124-degrees-in-algeria/?utm_term%3D.27500e122da6&source=gmail&ust=1561753314716000&usg=AFQjCNEHsdLFeDy-NklECBDXQq7wpBejKQ" href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2018/07/06/africa-may-have-witnessed-its-all-time-hottest-temperature-thursday-124-degrees-in-algeria/?utm_term=.27500e122da6" rel="noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">highest reliably measured temperature in Africa</a>, 124 degrees Fahrenheit. In late June, the temperature never dropped below 108 degrees Fahrenheit in Oman — <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.cnn.com/travel/article/hottest-low-temperature-quriyat-oman-wxc/index.html&source=gmail&ust=1561753314716000&usg=AFQjCNEoctCCRMTafP-hC577fHwAaLQPfw" href="https://www.cnn.com/travel/article/hottest-low-temperature-quriyat-oman-wxc/index.html" rel="noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">the highest overnight low temperature anywhere in the world</a>.</div>
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Even in normally temperate places, the air has been sweltering: Temperatures approaching 100 degrees Fahrenheit hit parts of Canada, <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/quebec-heat-wave-ending-1.4736509&source=gmail&ust=1561753314716000&usg=AFQjCNEYEwRU4wnPaooNIgcC00hhkZFHJw" href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/quebec-heat-wave-ending-1.4736509" rel="noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">overwhelming hospitals in Montreal</a> — where another heat wave is imminent this week.</div>
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<span style="color: #222222; font-family: sans-serif; font-size: x-small;"> Even the permafrost is getting hot And<a href="https://www.livescience.com/65709-arctic-permafrost-melts-decades-early.html?fbclid=IwAR157klhmlL_YrnZ0NlRZIBeTnpNVHO51yOu8EfrBdKu45roMw_On98YFuI" style="color: #1155cc;"> its is melting like its 2090</a>. see <a href="https://www.counterpunch.org/2019/06/21/permafrost-collapses-70-years-early/" style="color: #1155cc;">here</a></span></div>
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The aforementioned study, from 2003-2016, found permafrost melt up to 240% more than previous years. In geological terms, that’s like winning the Indy 500, hands down. That permafrost had been frozen solid for “thousands of years.” Accordingly, scientists predicted the permafrost “wouldn’t melt for another 70 years.” Yet, the landscape has already collapsed by up to three feet.</div>
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Not only is permafrost collapsing, but it’s also reported that houses are “sinking into the earth” in parts of Alaska, Canada, and Russia. Alaska’s 92-mile road for Alaska’s Denali National Park is moving off center by the forces of slip-sliding land.</div>
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James Anderson, who won the noble prize for his work on ozone<a href="https://www.counterpunch.org/2019/05/21/custers-last-stand-meets-global-warming/" style="color: #1155cc;"> puts it this way</a> </div>
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“People have the misapprehension that we can recover from this state just by reducing carbon emissions, Anderson said in an appearance at the University of Chicago.<b> Recovery is all but impossible, he argued, without a World War II-style transformation of industry</b>—an acceleration of the effort to halt carbon pollution and remove it from the atmosphere, and a new effort to reflect sunlight away from the earth’s poles… <b>This has to be done, Anderson added, within the next five years.” </b></div>
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Based upon that gauntlet as laid down by professor Anderson, only 4 years remains to get something done to “save us.” But, sadly, there is no “WW-II style transformation of industry” under consideration, not even a preliminary fact-finding mission.</div>
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<span style="background-color: #fcfcfc; color: #333333; font-family: tabular-numbers, georgia, cambria, "times new roman", times, serif;"><b>"The chance that there will be any permanent ice left in the Arctic after 2022 is essentially zero,</b>" Anderson said, with 75 to 80 percent of permanent ice having melted already in the last 35 years.</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: #fcfcfc; color: #333333; font-family: tabular-numbers, georgia, cambria, "times new roman", times, serif;"><b>Can we lose 75-80 percent of permanent ice and recover? The answer is no."</b></span></div>
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The answer is no in part because of what scientists call feedbacks, some of the ways the earth responds to warming. Among those feedbacks is the release of methane currently trapped in permafrost and under the sea, which will exacerbate warming. Another is the pending collapse of the Greenland ice sheet, which Anderson said will raise sea level by 7 meters (about 23 feet).</div>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-change-sea-level-rise-could-displace-millions-of-people-within-two-generations-116753" style="color: #1155cc;">Hans Joachim Schellnhuber of the Potsdam Institute puts it equally starkly</a></div>
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<span style="font-family: "open sans", sans-serif; font-size: 17px;">“</span><em style="border: none; font-family: "open sans", sans-serif; font-size: 17px;">The Emeritus Director of the Potsdam Institute, Prof. Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, warns that ‘climate change is now reaching the end-game, where very soon humanity must choose between taking unprecedented action, or accepting that it has been left too late and bear the consequences.’ He says that if we continue down the present path ‘<b>there is a very big risk that we will just end our civilisation. The human species will survive somehow but we will destroy almost everything we have built up over the last two thousand years.’</b></em><span style="font-family: "open sans", sans-serif; font-size: 17px;"><b>”</b></span></div>
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<a href="https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2019/6/18/18681591/renewable-energy-china-solar-pv-jobs" style="color: #1155cc;">Dave Roberts offers a sobering look at the efforts to date on "decarbonizing"</a></div>
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<span style="color: #4c4e4d; font-family: balto, helvetica, sans-serif;">First, we’re still moving in the wrong direction. Global carbon emissions aren’t falling fast enough. In fact, they aren’t falling at all; they were up </span><a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.reuters.com/article/us-iea-emissions/global-carbon-emissions-hit-record-high-in-2018-iea-idUSKCN1R7005&source=gmail&ust=1561753314717000&usg=AFQjCNGLPjCMJSy65DFFzHkErAe2DS9Fpw" href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-iea-emissions/global-carbon-emissions-hit-record-high-in-2018-iea-idUSKCN1R7005" style="background-color: transparent !important; border-bottom: 1px solid transparent; color: #4f7177; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit !important; font-style: inherit; font-weight: 600; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: inherit; vertical-align: inherit;" target="_blank">1.7 percent in 2018</a><span style="color: #4c4e4d; font-family: balto, helvetica, sans-serif;">.</span></div>
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Second, we’re still <em style="font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: inherit; vertical-align: inherit;">pushing</em> in the wrong direction. Globally, subsidies to fossil fuels were up 11 percent between 2016 and 2017, reaching $300 billion a year.</div>
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And third, the effort to clean up is flagging. This week brought some good news for the United States — more of America’s electricity came from clean energy than coal for the first time ever in April, as Bloomberg <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-06-25/for-first-time-ever-renewables-surpass-coal-in-u-s-power-mix&source=gmail&ust=1561753314717000&usg=AFQjCNEb08CfLRznVqUxGDSoL4CXK0pAFQ" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-06-25/for-first-time-ever-renewables-surpass-coal-in-u-s-power-mix" style="background-color: transparent !important; border-bottom: 1px solid transparent; color: #4f7177; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit !important; font-style: inherit; font-weight: 600; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: inherit; vertical-align: inherit;" target="_blank">reported</a> Tuesday. But the GSR report reveals that total investment in renewable energy (not including hydropower) was $288.9 billion in 2018 — less than fossil fuel subsidies and an 11 percent decrease from 2017.</div>
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This is all bad news. The public seems to have the impression that while things are bad, they are finally accelerating toward something better. It’s not true</div>
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Every climate model that involves humanity hitting its carbon targets involves rapid declines in “energy intensity,” i.e., the amount of energy used to produce a unit of GDP. In theory, if you can reduce energy intensity fast enough, you can offset the natural rise in energy consumption (from population and economic growth) and even cause total energy demand to decline.</div>
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In theory, anyway. In reality, global energy intensity has declined just 2.2 percent in the past five years. That has not been enough to offset the rise in global energy demand, which crept up 1.2 percent.</div>
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Energy intensity is declining at around 0.4 percent a year. To hit midcentury global decarbonization targets, global energy intensity would need to decline by between <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.energycentral.com/c/ec/role-energy-intensity-global-decarbonization-how-fast-can-we-cut-energy-use&source=gmail&ust=1561753314717000&usg=AFQjCNF7f3F9pZi19IT2Ka3440shtj1DxA" href="https://www.energycentral.com/c/ec/role-energy-intensity-global-decarbonization-how-fast-can-we-cut-energy-use" rel="noreferrer" style="background-color: transparent !important; border-bottom: 1px solid transparent; color: #4f7177; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit !important; font-style: inherit; font-weight: 600; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: inherit; vertical-align: inherit;" target="_blank">4 and 10 percent a year</a>. That means the world needs to accelerate efficiency and electrification rates by about 10 times.</div>
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<span style="color: #222222; font-family: sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">So, what should we prepare for? In dealing with risk, its important to look at both the "best case" and the worst case.<a href="https://insideclimatenews.org/news/21052019/antarctica-greenland-ice-sheet-melting-sea-level-rise-risk-climate-change-polar-scientists" style="color: #1155cc;"> It may be dangerous to rely on "mid range projections"</a></span></div>
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planners are working with a mid-range projection of sea level rise, their efforts might protect coastal regions from the most likely scenarios depicted in climate models, but that still leaves a lot of risks, say the authors of the <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2019/05/14/1817205116&source=gmail&ust=1561753314717000&usg=AFQjCNE6Ujptioy8JCe1YMltOx_sEyB3TQ" href="https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2019/05/14/1817205116" rel="noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer" style="background-color: transparent; color: #83be44; font-weight: bold;" target="_blank">study published Monday</a> in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.</div>
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"Coastal decisions, by and large, require long lead times, and it would be nice if we could wait for the science to clear up, but we can't," said Michael Oppenheimer, an atmospheric scientist at Princeton University and one of the authors of the study.</div>
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<b>"If you knew there was a one-third or even 10 percent chance a plane would crash, you wouldn't get on it. It's the same with sea level rise,"</b> </div>
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<span style="color: #1e2023; font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 1rem;"> Here is one "reasonably likely" </span><span style="color: #1e2023; font-family: sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">scenario</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 1rem;">See<a href="http://www.climatecodered.org/2019/06/is-humanity-dying.html#more" style="color: #1155cc;"> here</a></span></div>
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<span style="color: #1e2023; font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 1rem;">Find the report </span><a href="https://docs.wixstatic.com/ugd/148cb0_a1406e0143ac4c469196d3003bc1e687.pdf" style="color: #1155cc; font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 1rem;">here</a></div>
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<span style="color: #222222; font-size: x-small;">2020–2030: Policy-makers fail to act on evidence that the current Paris Agreement path — in which global human-caused greenhouse emissions do not peak until 2030 — will lock in at least 3° C of warming.The case for a global, climate-emergency mobilization of labor and resources to build a zero-emission economy and carbon drawdown in order to have a realistic chance of keeping warming well below 2°C is politely ignored. </span></div>
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As projected by Xu and Ramanathan, by 2030 carbon dioxide levels have reached 437 parts per million—which is unprecedented in the last 20 million years — <b>and warming reaches 1.6°C.</b></div>
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2030–2050: <b>Emissions peak in 2030</b>, and start to fall consistent with an 80 percent reduction in fossil-fuel energy intensity by 2100 compared to 2010 energy intensity. </div>
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<b>This leads to warming of 2.4°C by 2050</b>, consistent with the Xu and Ramanathan “baseline-fast” scenario. </div>
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<b>However, another 0.6°C of warming occurs —taking the total to 3°C by 2050</b>—due to the activation of a number of carbon-cycle feedbacks and higher levels of ice albedo and cloud feedbacks than current models assume. </div>
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[It should be noted that this is far from an extreme scenario: the low-probability, high-impact warming (five percent probability) can exceed 3.5–4°C by 2050 in the Xu and Ramanathan scheme.] </div>
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2050: By 2050, there is broad scientific acceptance that system tipping-points for the West AntarcticIce Sheet and a sea-ice-free Arctic summer were passed well before 1.5°C of warming, for the Greenland Ice Sheet well before 2°C, and for wide spread permafrost loss and large-scale Amazon drought and die back by 2.5°C. The “hot house Earth”scenario has been realised, and Earth is headed for another degree or more of warming, especially since human green house hothouse is still significant. </div>
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<b>Thirty five percent of the global land area, and 55 percent of the global population, are subject to more than 20 days a year of lethal heat conditions, beyond the threshold of survivability.</b></div>
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Interestingly, this corresponds pretty well with a scenario from "<a href="https://www.csis.org/analysis/age-consequences" style="color: #1155cc;">The Age of Consequences</a>", put out in 2006 by the Center for Strategic and International studies </div>
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<b>In the case of severe climate change, cor-</b></div>
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<span style="color: #1e2023; font-family: sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><b>responding to an average increase in global </b></span></span></div>
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<span style="color: #1e2023; font-family: sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><b>temperature of 2.6°C by 2040</b>, <b>massive non-</b></span></span></div>
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<span style="color: #1e2023; font-family: sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><b>linear events in the global environment give </b></span></span></div>
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<span style="color: #1e2023; font-family: sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><b>rise to massive nonlinear societal events.</b> In </span></span></div>
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<span style="color: #1e2023; font-family: sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">this scenario, addressed in Chapter IV, nations </span></span></div>
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<span style="color: #1e2023; font-family: sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">around the world will be overwhelmed by the </span></span></div>
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<span style="color: #1e2023; font-family: sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">scale of change and pernicious challenges, such </span></span></div>
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<span style="color: #1e2023; font-family: sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">as pandemic disease. <b>The internal cohesion of </b></span></span></div>
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<span style="color: #1e2023; font-family: sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><b>nations will be under great stress, including in the </b></span></span></div>
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<span style="color: #1e2023; font-family: sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><b>United States, both as a result of a dramatic rise </b></span></span></div>
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<span style="color: #1e2023; font-family: sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><b>in migration and changes in agricultural patterns </b></span></span></div>
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<span style="color: #1e2023; font-family: sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><b>and water availability.</b> The flooding of coastal </span></span></div>
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<span style="color: #1e2023; font-family: sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">Netherlands, the United States, South Asia, and </span></span></div>
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<span style="color: #1e2023; font-family: sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">even national identities. Armed conflict between </span></span></div>
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<span style="color: #1e2023; font-family: sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">tributaries, is likely and nuclear war is possible. </span></span></div>
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<span style="color: #1e2023; font-family: sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><b>The social consequences range from increased </b></span></span></div>
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<span style="color: #1e2023; font-family: sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">nario, climate change provokes a permanent shift </span></span></div>
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This may be a little abstract. Lets look how it could play out in the area of food and water.<a href="https://www.wundeground.com/cat6/If-Old-River-Control-Structure-Fails-Catastrophe-G%20lobal-Impact?cm_ven=cat6-widget" style="color: #1155cc;"> From the weather underground</a></div>
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<span style="font-size: 1rem;">As I wrote in my 2016 post, </span><a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/food-system-shock-climate-changes-greatest-threat-to-civilization.html&source=gmail&ust=1561753314718000&usg=AFQjCNF-QuJv7Qj6ZP6y17G-NxFJLkURXg" href="https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/food-system-shock-climate-changes-greatest-threat-to-civilization.html" rel="noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer" style="background-color: transparent; color: #1088b0; font-size: 1rem; line-height: inherit;" target="_blank">Food System Shock: Climate Change's Greatest Threat to Civilization</a><span style="font-size: 1rem;">, </span><b style="font-size: 1rem;">the greatest threat of climate change to civilization over the next 40 years is likely to be climate change-amplified extreme droughts and floods hitting multiple major global grain-producing "breadbaskets" simultaneously. </b><span style="font-size: 1rem;">An interruption in U.S. grain exports due to failure of the ORCS, if it occurs during the same year that another major grain-producing nation experiences a serious drought or flood, could cause a frightening global food emergency. The impact might be similar to what was outlined in a </span><a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=http://www.eenews.net/assets/2015/06/19/document_cw_02.pdf&source=gmail&ust=1561753314718000&usg=AFQjCNHJ4iBLBPiaTIqkV5-hvdwxHaBpEg" href="http://www.eenews.net/assets/2015/06/19/document_cw_02.pdf" rel="noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer" style="background-color: transparent; color: #1088b0; font-size: 1rem; line-height: inherit;" target="_blank">"Food System Shock" report issued in 2015</a><span style="font-size: 1rem;"> by insurance giant Lloyds of London, with rioting, terrorist attacks, civil war, mass starvation and severe losses to the global economy.</span></div>
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As for<a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-48552199" style="color: #1155cc;"> water</a></div>
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In India, “Day Zero” has already arrived for over 100 million people, thanks to excessive groundwater pumping, an inefficient and wasteful water supply system and years of deficient rains. “Day Zero” is expected to arrive for millions more in India by 2020 when groundwater supplies are predicted to run out for 100 million people in the northern half of India.</div>
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Over 12% of India’s population – 163 million people of 1.3 billion – live under “Day Zero” conditions, with no access to clean water near their home, according to a 2018 WaterAid report. That is the most of any country in the world. With the taps dry, people are forced to dig ever-deeper wells or buy water.</div>
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The number of people in India experiencing “Day Zero” is set to grow significantly by 2020, according to a startling report released in 2018 by Niti Ayog, India’s federal think tank. “Supply gaps are causing city dwellers to depend on privately extracted groundwater, bringing down local water tables,” the report says.</div>
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<strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">“In fact, by 2020, 21 major cities, including Delhi, Bengaluru (formerly called Bangalore) and Hyderabad, are expected to reach zero groundwater levels, affecting access for 100 million people.”</strong></div>
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See also <a href="https://weather.com/news/weather/news/2019-06-06-day-zero-india-run-out-of-water" style="color: #1155cc;">here </a>and<a href="https://desdemonadespair.net/2019/05/get-ready-for-tens-of-millions-of-climate-refugees.html" style="color: #1155cc;"> here</a></div>
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So how would this play out? Well, initially at least the "first world" in the northern latitudes will get off relatively easy (fire, flood and drought). Its is the poor southern latitudes that will be hit much harder.</div>
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<a href="https://www.sciencealert.com/hundreds-of-millions-at-risk-of-devastating-climate-apartheid-un-expert-warns" style="color: #1155cc;">As a recent UN Report explains</a>:</div>
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In a <a href="https://www.ohchr.org/EN/HRBodies/HRC/RegularSessions/Session41/Documents/A_HRC_41_39.docx" style="border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(220, 220, 220); color: #005689; text-decoration-line: none;">blistering new report</a> being presented to the UN Human Rights Council in Geneva this week, Alston warns hundreds of millions of people will face food insecurity, forced migration, disease, and death this century – and even in the short term the mounting crises will be devastating in effect.</div>
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"It could push more than 120 million more people into poverty by 2030," <a href="https://www.ohchr.org/EN/NewsEvents/Pages/DisplayNews.aspx?NewsID=24735&LangID=E" style="border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(220, 220, 220); color: #005689; text-decoration-line: none;">Alston says</a>.</div>
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"Climate change threatens to undo the last 50 years of progress in development, global health, and poverty reduction."</div>
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The biggest risk, the report explains, is to the world's poor; people from nations who are the least responsible for the consequences of carbon pollution, but who will feel its most severe impacts.</div>
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While those in developing countries will not be the only victims of the climate crisis as it unfolds, they will be the most exposed to its dangerous environmental repercussions, Alston says.</div>
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"People in poverty tend to live in areas more susceptible to climate change and in housing that is less resistant; lose relatively more when affected; have fewer resources to mitigate the effects; and get less support from social safety nets or the financial system to prevent or recover from the impact," <a href="https://www.ohchr.org/EN/HRBodies/HRC/RegularSessions/Session41/Documents/A_HRC_41_39.docx" style="border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(220, 220, 220); color: #005689; text-decoration-line: none;">the report states</a>.</div>
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"Their livelihoods and assets are more exposed and they are more vulnerable to natural disasters that bring disease, crop failure, spikes in food prices, and death or disability."</div>
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It's these types of factors, Alston writes, that help to explain why in this century alone, people in poor countries have died from disasters at rates up to seven times higher than citizens from wealthy countries.</div>
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This phenomenon, which may be even more exacerbated as climate strife deepens, paints a dire picture of where things are headed.</div>
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"We risk a 'climate apartheid' scenario where the wealthy pay to escape overheating, hunger, and conflict while the rest of the world is left to suffer," <a href="https://www.ohchr.org/EN/NewsEvents/Pages/DisplayNews.aspx?NewsID=24735&LangID=E" style="border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(220, 220, 220); color: #005689; text-decoration-line: none;">Alston says</a>.</div>
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I suppose this is where I am supposed to say that we can still turn this around, if we just try harder. But I'm not sure that is a useful message.</div>
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I recently read a thoughtful review of two Climate related books "Falter", by Bill Mckibben and "The Uninhabitable Earth" by David Wallace Wells. The reviewer praises them for their able description of the situation, but suggests they falter at the end. <a href="https://lareviewofbooks.org/article/no-happy-ending-on-bill-mckibbens-falter-and-david-wallace-wellss-the-uninhabitable-earth/" style="color: #1155cc;">The whole review of worth reading</a>. Here is a snip.</div>
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<span style="color: black; font-family: adriane, "Adriane Text", serif; font-size: 16.8px; text-align: justify; text-decoration-line: inherit;">In this way, both authors adhere neatly to the genre of the monitory ecological sermon, which found archetypal form in Theodor Geisel’s 1971 story </span><em style="border-style: solid; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: inherit; color: inherit; cursor: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; text-decoration: inherit; vertical-align: inherit;">The Lorax</em><span style="color: black; font-family: adriane, "Adriane Text", serif; font-size: 16.8px; text-align: justify; text-decoration-line: inherit;">: industrial capitalism has wrought total ecological devastation upon the Earth, denuding it of Truffula Trees, brown Bar-ba-loots, Humming Fish, and Swomee Swans, which devastated world is fated to be our grim gray home forever …</span><span style="color: black; font-family: adriane, "Adriane Text", serif; font-size: 16.8px; text-align: justify; text-decoration-line: inherit;"> </span><em style="border-style: solid; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: inherit; color: inherit; cursor: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; text-decoration: inherit; vertical-align: inherit;">unless</em><span style="color: black; font-family: adriane, "Adriane Text", serif; font-size: 16.8px; text-align: justify; text-decoration-line: inherit;">. Unless, that is, we heed the Lorax who speaks for the trees. The future depends upon cultivating the right feelings: “Unless someone like you cares a whole awful lot, nothing is going to get better. It’s not.” Which implies that if you</span><span style="color: black; font-family: adriane, "Adriane Text", serif; font-size: 16.8px; text-align: justify; text-decoration-line: inherit;"> </span><em style="border-style: solid; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: inherit; color: inherit; cursor: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; text-decoration: inherit; vertical-align: inherit;">do </em><span style="color: black; font-family: adriane, "Adriane Text", serif; font-size: 16.8px; text-align: justify; text-decoration-line: inherit;">care, things</span><span style="color: black; font-family: adriane, "Adriane Text", serif; font-size: 16.8px; text-align: justify; text-decoration-line: inherit;"> </span><em style="border-style: solid; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: inherit; color: inherit; cursor: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; text-decoration: inherit; vertical-align: inherit;">will </em><span style="color: black; font-family: adriane, "Adriane Text", serif; font-size: 16.8px; text-align: justify; text-decoration-line: inherit;">get better — a kind of magical thinking to which Americans seem especially susceptible.</span></div>
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Both <em style="border-style: solid; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: inherit; color: inherit; cursor: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: inherit; vertical-align: inherit;">The Uninhabitable Earth </em>and <em style="border-style: solid; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: inherit; color: inherit; cursor: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: inherit; vertical-align: inherit;">Falter</em> swerve in their final pages into this “unless,” in equally desperate and unconvincing ways. Wallace-Wells insists that “[i]f humans are responsible for the problem, they must be capable of undoing it,” which assertion is false in two ways. First, I may be responsible for knocking a glass of wine onto the floor, but I cannot simply undo the shattering. George W. Bush was responsible for the American invasion of Iraq, but no executive order could unbomb Baghdad and resurrect all the children he killed. Both ecological thinking and human history teach the same lesson: actions have complex, unforeseeable, and often irrevocable consequences.</div>
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Second, Wallace-Wells’s assertion attributes conscious deliberation to an abstract entity — “humanity” — which has shown no evidence of having any such quality. At the global scale, we act not as rational agents making individual decisions, but as a concatenation of competing actors. Even at the level of the individual, we often face limitations when it comes to doing what we think we ought. Simply because someone is responsible for drinking too much, losing their temper, or making a fool of themselves does not mean that they are necessarily capable of doing otherwise, much less of undoing the consequences of their actions.</div>
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While Wallace-Wells subscribes to the standard checklist of proposals to fight climate change, he neglects to present a convincing case for how policies such as the Green New Deal, a carbon tax, or massive global investment in direct air capture technology might be enacted and put into practice. Any environmental studies undergrad can tell you what we need to do; the problem is doing it. Wallace-Wells’s personal exhortations that we “choose to feel empowered” and “take responsibility” for climate change ring as hollow as the self-help slogans they so resemble.</div>
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McKibben’s “unless” relies less on contemporary language of empowerment than on a mashup of 1960s social activism and 1970s techno-utopianism. He argues that “two new technologies” offer us the chance to save the Bar-ba-loots: “One is the solar panel, and the other is the nonviolent movement.” To support this claim, McKibben first turns to Thomas Friedman–style anecdotes about poor families in Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, and rural Vermont relying on solar panels for home power generation, then descends into a stupefying mix of cheerleading, moral hectoring, and small-is-beautiful nostalgia.</div>
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Solar panels, on their own, cannot meet global energy needs, and will not solve the problems caused by CO2 currently in the atmosphere and oceans, the catastrophic collapse of the biosphere, imminent crises in industrial agriculture, and accelerating climate feedbacks. And at this point — after the 2003 protests against the Iraq War, the “largest anti-war rally in history,” which saw millions of people in hundreds of cities across the world protesting the American invasion of Iraq and which utterly failed to stop the war — after the “People’s Climate March” in 2014, the “largest climate change march in history,” which utterly failed to have any noticeable effect on global climate policy — after decades of failed protests against institutional racism, gun violence, sexism, nuclear weapons, abortion, war, environmental degradation, and a raft of other issues — only the deluded and naïve could maintain that nonviolent protest politics is much more than ritualized wishful thinking. In the end, McKibben’s argument falls into the same vague preaching as does Wallace-Wells’s. Human beings are special, McKibben insists, because we have free will: “We’re the only creature who can decide <em style="border-style: solid; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: inherit; color: inherit; cursor: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: inherit; vertical-align: inherit;">not </em>to do something we’re capable of doing.” Asking hard questions about who that “we” is, how “we” make decisions, how power works, and the limits of human freedom are beyond the reach of both writers, because such questions lie outside the narrative they’re both trapped in.</div>
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Walterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18048738723369282833noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1190362411119958387.post-80649641114882400192019-05-16T14:15:00.002-07:002019-05-16T14:15:46.441-07:00Somebody get me a cheeseburger!<br />
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Next meeting of the Joint Comitte on Carbon Reduction 5/17/2019</div>
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350.org publishes reports on "<a href="https://www.ourchildrenstrust.org/350-ppm-pathways" style="color: #1155cc;">climate recovery without economic hardship"</a></div>
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Greetings</div>
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Perhaps you've heard that OAC, and the New Green Deal, want to<a href="https://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/alexandria-ocasio-cortez-is-coming-for-your-hamburgers" style="color: #1155cc;"> take away your car and your hamburger</a>. Shocking! </div>
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<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/01/climate/nyt-climate-newsletter-food.html" style="color: #1155cc;">The New York Times.</a> put out a special section on why you should become a vegan, and how to do it.</div>
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Speaking of food, Bill McKibben, normally a pretty optimistic guy, suggests that we may accept the reality of climate change where it starts to affect the food supply</div>
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<a href="https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-features/bill-mckibben-falter-climate-change-817310/" style="color: #1155cc;">Here.</a> </div>
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'... a 2017 study in Australia, home to some of the world’s highest-tech farming, found that “wheat productivity has flatlined as a direct result of <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.rollingstone.com/t/climate-change/&source=gmail&ust=1558126038135000&usg=AFQjCNG-RL7TZ4A8VH_0nmVpjr0gSk4RsQ" href="https://www.rollingstone.com/t/climate-change/" rel="noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer" style="color: #d32531; font-family: graphik, sans-serif; font-weight: 600; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">climate change</a>.” After tripling between 1900 and 1990, wheat yields had stagnated since, as temperatures increased a degree and rainfall declined by nearly a third. “The chance of that just being variable climate without the underlying factor [of climate change] is less than one in a hundred billion,” the researchers said, and it meant that despite all the expensive new technology farmers kept introducing, “they have succeeded only in standing still, not in moving forward.” Assuming the same trends continued, yields would actually start to decline inside of two decades, they reported. In June 2018, researchers found that a two-degree Celsius rise in temperature — which, recall, is what the Paris accords are now <em>aiming for </em>— could cut U.S. corn yields by 18 percent. A four-degree increase — which is where our current trajectory will take us — would cut the crop almost in half. The United States is the world’s largest producer of corn, which in turn is the planet’s most widely grown crop.</div>
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Corn is vulnerable because even a week of high temperatures at the key moment can keep it from fertilizing. (“<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/drought-threatens-us-food-prices/2012/06/27/gJQAzNZd7V_story.html?utm_term%3D.e174469240d8&source=gmail&ust=1558126038135000&usg=AFQjCNEsjuJwLu4z0Uf-qhv3hSuRCXhNbw" href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/drought-threatens-us-food-prices/2012/06/27/gJQAzNZd7V_story.html?utm_term=.e174469240d8" rel="noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer" style="color: #d32531; font-family: graphik, sans-serif; font-weight: 600; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">You only get one chance to pollinate a quadrillion kernels of corn,”</a> the head of a commodity consulting firm explained.) But even the hardiest crops are susceptible. Sorghum, for instance, which is a staple for half a billion humans, is particularly hardy in dry conditions because it has big, fibrous roots that reach far down into the earth. Even it has limits, though, and they are being reached. Thirty years of data from the American Midwest show that heat waves affect the “vapor pressure deficit,” the difference between the water vapor in the sorghum leaf’s interior and that in the surrounding air. Hotter weather means the sorghum releases more moisture into the atmosphere. Warm the planet’s temperature by two degrees Celsius — which is, again, now the world’s <em>goal </em>— and sorghum yields drop 17 percent. Warm it five degrees Celsius (nine degrees Fahrenheit), and yields drop almost 60 percent.</div>
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It’s hard to imagine a topic duller than sorghum yields. It’s the precise opposite of clickbait. But people have to eat; in the human game, the single most important question is probably “What’s for dinner?” And when the answer is “Not much,” things deteriorate fast. In 2010 a severe heat wave hit Russia, and it wrecked the grain harvest, which led the Kremlin to ban exports. The global price of wheat spiked, and that helped trigger the Arab Spring — Egypt at the time was the largest wheat importer on the planet. That experience set academics and insurers to work gaming out what the next food shock might look like. In 2017 one team imagined a vigorous El Niño, with the attendant floods and droughts — for a season, in their scenario, corn, and soy yields declined by 10 percent, and wheat and rice by 7 percent. The result was chaos: “<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.eenews.net/assets/2015/06/19/document_cw_02.pdf&source=gmail&ust=1558126038135000&usg=AFQjCNHar2mEPhq0du41XPRrVBrcOq8nBQ" href="https://www.eenews.net/assets/2015/06/19/document_cw_02.pdf" rel="noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer" style="color: #d32531; font-family: graphik, sans-serif; font-weight: 600; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">quadrupled commodity prices, civil unrest, significant negative humanitarian consequences . . . Food riots break out in urban areas across the Middle East, North Africa, and Latin America. The euro weakens and the main European stock markets lose ten percent</a>.”</div>
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The New York Times explains <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/30/dining/farming-climate-change.html" style="color: #1155cc;">how this is already playing out in the US</a></div>
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"Drop a pin anywhere on a map of the United States and you’ll find disruption in the fields. Warmer temperatures are extending growing seasons in some areas and sending a host of new pests into others. Some fields are parched with drought, others so flooded that they swallow tractors.</div>
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Decades-long patterns of frost, heat and rain — never entirely predictable but once reliable enough — have broken down. In regions where the term climate change still meets with skepticism, some simply call the weather extreme or erratic. But most agree that something unusual is happening.</div>
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I find this interesting, and I recall that the original limits to growth predicted that in the end growth would occur when pollution began to limit food.</div>
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Food is pretty basic stuff. You might think that would inspire some action. However the recent report from the IEA shows otherwise. Basically, despite all the pledges, investment in renewables has leveled off, while coal has increased. <a href="https://theconversation.com/explaining-the-increase-in-coal-consumption-worldwide-111045" style="color: #1155cc;">Here</a> is why</div>
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<span style="color: #383838; font-family: "libre baskerville", georgia, times, "times new roman", serif;">"Closer up, we see opposing trends in the world’s largest economies: the efforts and announcements of the majority of countries that are phasing out the use of coal to produce electricity are being undermined by a number of countries that are increasing the share of coal in their power mix.</span></div>
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This is the case particularly for major coal-producing countries such as Indonesia (58% of electricity produced from coal, 18 percentage points increase from 2010 to 2017), Turkey (33%, +7 points) and India (75%, +7 points, as shown in Figure 1, above). India is the second largest coal producer in the world after China with significant coal reserves. The development of renewables and the commissioning of more efficient coal-fired power plants in India are not sufficient to absorb the growth in electricity demand, which has averaged <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.enerdata.net/expertise/energy-co2-data.html&source=gmail&ust=1558126038135000&usg=AFQjCNGz1qxI0Tw4qkc5tiwGYav79oDPZQ" href="https://www.enerdata.net/expertise/energy-co2-data.html" rel="noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer" style="color: #557585; outline: none; white-space: pre-wrap;" target="_blank">7% per year since 2005</a>.</div>
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Other countries are seeking to diversify their energy mix and are increasingly using coal to produce their electricity: Malaysia (45%, +10 points), Chile (37%, +9 points), South Korea (46%, +2 points) and Japan (33%, +6 points). These countries rely on coal for several reasons: in addition to often being a cheaper source of electricity, coal limits their dependence on oil- and gas-producing countries, and in turn, limits the effect of hydrocarbon price volatility on their economies. Due to a lack of domestic fossil fuel resources, Japan is one of the largest oil-, natural gas- and coal-importing countries. Between 2011 and 2015, the share of coal in Japanese electricity production increased significantly to cope with the closure of nuclear power plants following the <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://theconversation.com/fukushima-seven-years-later-case-closed-93448&source=gmail&ust=1558126038135000&usg=AFQjCNFrcn1MaJUyulyFmSBsdikDHKKKkg" href="https://theconversation.com/fukushima-seven-years-later-case-closed-93448" rel="noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer" style="color: #557585; outline: none; white-space: pre-wrap;" target="_blank">Fukushima disaster</a>.</div>
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And the Keeling curve keeps on rising. Now it's last 415. <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/co2-carbon-emissions-high-petm-arctic-palm-tree-1342620" style="color: #1155cc;">The last time co2 was this high, there were palm trees at the South Pole</a>. <a href="https://truthout.org/articles/the-last-time-there-was-this-much-co2-trees-grew-at-the-south-pole/" style="color: #1155cc;">Welcome to the Pliocene</a></div>
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<span style="background-color: #f8f8f8; color: #0a0a0a; font-family: merriweather, georgia, serif; font-size: 18px;">Another recent report showed that the last time there was this much CO2 in the atmosphere (</span><a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.co2.earth/&source=gmail&ust=1558126038136000&usg=AFQjCNG3kERrl67vurHZyA2hFPxIunLF6w" href="https://www.co2.earth/" rel="noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer" style="background-color: #f8f8f8; color: #9c162c; font-family: merriweather, georgia, serif; font-size: 18px; line-height: inherit;" target="_blank">412 ppm</a><span style="background-color: #f8f8f8; color: #0a0a0a; font-family: merriweather, georgia, serif; font-size: 18px;">)</span><span style="background-color: #f8f8f8; color: #0a0a0a; font-family: merriweather, georgia, serif; font-size: 18px;">, in the Pliocene Epoch 5.3 to 2.6 million years ago, sea levels were 20 meters higher than they are right now, trees were growing at the South Pole, and average global temperatures were 3 to 4 degrees Centigrade (3°-4° C) warmer, and even 10°C warmer in some areas. </span><a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://climate.nasa.gov/climate_resources/7/graphic-carbon-dioxide-hits-new-high/&source=gmail&ust=1558126038136000&usg=AFQjCNEG_UKFy6WXuI_9OmLmVQf3J4dk2w" href="https://climate.nasa.gov/climate_resources/7/graphic-carbon-dioxide-hits-new-high/" rel="noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer" style="background-color: #f8f8f8; color: #9c162c; font-family: merriweather, georgia, serif; font-size: 18px; line-height: inherit;" target="_blank">NASA echoed the report’s</a><span style="background-color: #f8f8f8; color: #0a0a0a; font-family: merriweather, georgia, serif; font-size: 18px;"> findings</span><span style="background-color: #f8f8f8; color: #0a0a0a; font-family: merriweather, georgia, serif; font-size: 18px;">.</span></div>
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Meanwhile, the UN keeps putting out scary reports about extinctions . <a href="https://www.usnews.com/news/national-news/articles/2019-05-06/un-report-finds-1-million-species-at-risk-of-extinction" style="color: #1155cc;"> This one </a>seems to say that even if we turned things around on climate change, we'd still have a lot of work to do to stop the sixth great extinction.</div>
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U.N. Report Finds 1 Million Species At Risk of Extinction</div>
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A landmark report finds species are being pushed to the brink of extinction at a rate ‘tens to hundreds of times higher than it has been, on average, over the last 10 million years.’</div>
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The report found that more than 40% of amphibians, 33% of coral reefs and over one-third of all marine species are threatened with extinction.</div>
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Three-quarters of land environments and two-thirds of marine environments have been “significantly” altered by humans, according to the report.</div>
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“Ecosystems, species, wild populations, local varieties and breeds of domesticated plants and animals are shrinking, deteriorating or vanishing. The essential, interconnected web of life on Earth is getting smaller and increasingly frayed,” said Josef Settele, who co-chaired the assessment. “This loss is a direct result of human activity and constitutes a direct threat to human well-being in all regions of the world.”</div>
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While the report’s findings predict a dismal future, Watson said there is still time to make a difference if work begins now. It would require a “fundamental, system-wide reorganization across technological, economic and social factors, including paradigms, goals, and values,” he said.</div>
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<a href="https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2019/05/20/climate-change-and-the-new-age-of-extinction" style="color: #1155cc;">Elizabeth Kolbert puts it like this </a></div>
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"To keep nearly eight billion people fed, not to mention housed, clothed, and hooked on YouTube, humans have transformed most of the earth’s surface. Seventy-five percent of the land is “significantly altered,” the I.P.B.E.S. noted in a summary of its report, which was released last week in Paris. In addition, “66 percent of the ocean area is experiencing increasing cumulative impacts, and over 85 percent of wetlands (area) has been lost.” Approximately half the world’s coral cover is gone. In the past ten years alone, at least seventy-five million acres of “primary or recovering forest” has been destroyed.</div>
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Habitat destruction and overfishing are, for now, the main causes of biodiversity declines, according to the I.P.B.E.S., but climate change is emerging as a “direct driver” and is “increasingly exacerbating the impact of other drivers.” Its effects, the report notes, “are accelerating.” Watson wrote last week, in the <em>Guardian, </em>that “we cannot solve the threats of human-induced climate change and loss of biodiversity in isolation. We either solve both or we solve neither.”</div>
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(With all this bad news <a href="http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2019/05/jared-diamond-on-his-new-book-upheaval.html?utm_source=pocket-newtab" style="color: #1155cc;">Jared Diamond give civilization only a 50 % chance after 2050</a>.)</div>
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One might think that the situation is an "existential threat" to the human species . But its worse! .<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/12/climate/renewable-wind-solar-energy.html?login=google" style="color: #1155cc;"> It could wreck the sales of sneakers</a>!</div>
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Nike, the sports equipment maker, for instance, has become a sizable player in renewables. Among Nike’s recent deals: an agreement with <a class="gmail-css-1g7m0tk" href="https://www.iberdrola.com/home" rel="noopener noreferrer" style="border: 0px; color: #326891; font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-size-adjust: 100%; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank" title="">Iberdrola</a>, a large Spanish utility, to take power from a wind farm being built in Spain that will offset the electricity used in its European operations.</div>
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<span style="color: #333333;"><span style="font-weight: inherit;">Noel Kinder, chief sustainability officer at Nike, explained that </span><b>the company saw climate change as not only an “existential threat” to humanity but also a potential wrecker of the company’s sales of goods</b><span style="font-weight: inherit;"> like shoes and sweatshirts. Focusing the company’s resources to strike a blow against this problem makes sense on many levels. If extreme weather and pollution increases, he explained, </span><b>“people can’t do sports, and they can’t buy our products</b></span><span style="font-family: sans-serif; font-size: x-small;"><b> </b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">Kevin Drum offers his assessment in his </span><a href="https://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2019/02/heres-my-super-abridged-green-new-deal/" style="color: #1155cc; font-family: sans-serif; font-size: small;">"super abridged green new deal.</a><span style="font-family: sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">". </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: calluna, serif; font-size: 19px;">The problem itself is obvious enough: people generally don’t like to sacrifice now in order to avoid some kind of disaster later. The urge that prompts us to eat a cookie even though it will eventually make us fat is the exact same one that prompts fossil-fuel companies to deny global warming even though it will eventually put all their refineries underwater. We call the former “hyperbolic discounting” and the latter “free market capitalism,” but it’s all the same thing.</span></div>
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See BBC: <a href="http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20190304-human-evolution-means-we-can-tackle-climate-change" style="color: #1155cc;">How Brain Biases Prevent Climate Actions </a></div>
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<span style="font-family: sans-serif;">His suggestion is pretty straightforward. <a href="https://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2019/02/do-you-believe-in-climate-change-really/" style="color: #1155cc;">Live simply.</a></span></div>
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"<span style="font-family: calluna, serif; font-size: 19px;">Let me put this in concrete terms. If you truly believe that climate change will broil the planet in the next 50 years or so, the very least you should do is immediately get rid of your car and adopt a vegan diet. How many of you have done that? How many of you have even considered it? Virtually none of you.² And like I said, that’s just a start. If you’re really serious, you should also toss out your air conditioning; only heat your house if temps are down in the 40s; never travel anywhere by plane; buy local food, and install rooftop solar. I’m going to let you keep your too-big house, but only because I’m a nice guy.</span></div>
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Walterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18048738723369282833noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1190362411119958387.post-25881731109446261682019-03-22T10:14:00.000-07:002019-03-22T10:14:51.892-07:00Cognitive Dissonance<br />
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Manic depression </div>
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- Jimi Hendrix</div>
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PSA :. Several African countries got "rain bombed",thanks to the carbon we emitted over the last 50 years. <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/21/world/africa/how-to-help-cyclone-idai.html" style="color: #1155cc;">Here are some ways to help.</a> </div>
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Here's<a href="https://grist.org/article/cyclone-idai-lays-bare-the-fundamental-injustice-of-climate-change/" style="color: #1155cc;"> Eric Holthaus</a> on the fundamental injustice of climate change</div>
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #09222b; font-family: merriweather, georgia, "droid serif", cambria, "times new roman", times, serif; font-size: 16px;">"The </span><a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/mar/19/cyclone-idai-worst-weather-disaster-to-hit-southern-hemisphere-mozambique-malawi&source=gmail&ust=1553360319176000&usg=AFQjCNEeBeMcPRx1Fxu6ItokBm-mWzKUXw" href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/mar/19/cyclone-idai-worst-weather-disaster-to-hit-southern-hemisphere-mozambique-malawi" rel="noreferrer" style="background-color: white; border-bottom: 0.0625rem solid rgb(7, 96, 126); color: #054a61; font-family: merriweather, georgia, "droid serif", cambria, "times new roman", times, serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: inherit; text-decoration-line: none !important;" target="_blank">initial post-storm reports</a><span style="background-color: white; color: #09222b; font-family: merriweather, georgia, "droid serif", cambria, "times new roman", times, serif; font-size: 16px;"> are harrowing: 90 percent of Beira, Mozambique — a city of more than 500,000 people — has been destroyed by floodwaters. The first aid workers to reach the hardest-hit areas </span><a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.cnn.com/2019/03/19/africa/cyclone-idai-mozambique-zimbabwe-intl/index.html&source=gmail&ust=1553360319176000&usg=AFQjCNGvdINmkdPEbs66vD51xZjQozGe5Q" href="https://www.cnn.com/2019/03/19/africa/cyclone-idai-mozambique-zimbabwe-intl/index.html" rel="noreferrer" style="background-color: white; border-bottom: 0.0625rem solid rgb(7, 96, 126); color: #054a61; font-family: merriweather, georgia, "droid serif", cambria, "times new roman", times, serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: inherit; text-decoration-line: none !important;" target="_blank">found people clinging to trees and rooftops</a><span style="background-color: white; color: #09222b; font-family: merriweather, georgia, "droid serif", cambria, "times new roman", times, serif; font-size: 16px;">, </span><a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://twitter.com/VanDamCNN/status/1108047081640550400&source=gmail&ust=1553360319176000&usg=AFQjCNFtkhv3QnzhIt9H8Oj4JGGfNo_aTg" href="https://twitter.com/VanDamCNN/status/1108047081640550400" rel="noreferrer" style="background-color: white; border-bottom: 0.0625rem solid rgb(7, 96, 126); color: #054a61; font-family: merriweather, georgia, "droid serif", cambria, "times new roman", times, serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: inherit; text-decoration-line: none !important;" target="_blank">awaiting rescue</a><span style="background-color: white; color: #09222b; font-family: merriweather, georgia, "droid serif", cambria, "times new roman", times, serif; font-size: 16px;">, with waters still rising. Social media posts from Zimbabwe showed people </span><a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://twitter.com/TondeMapfunde/status/1107166972037525507&source=gmail&ust=1553360319176000&usg=AFQjCNGUXEvxB6SGXBH_rd0YxCt1Gcs9Zw" href="https://twitter.com/TondeMapfunde/status/1107166972037525507" rel="noreferrer" style="background-color: white; border-bottom: 0.0625rem solid rgb(7, 96, 126); color: #054a61; font-family: merriweather, georgia, "droid serif", cambria, "times new roman", times, serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: inherit; text-decoration-line: none !important;" target="_blank">swept away on flooded roads</a><span style="background-color: white; color: #09222b; font-family: merriweather, georgia, "droid serif", cambria, "times new roman", times, serif; font-size: 16px;"> and </span><a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://twitter.com/DasenThathiah/status/1107663378997231622&source=gmail&ust=1553360319176000&usg=AFQjCNG3CiXE0r6avXhYyyj3mW5WA8SweQ" href="https://twitter.com/DasenThathiah/status/1107663378997231622" rel="noreferrer" style="background-color: white; border-bottom: 0.0625rem solid rgb(7, 96, 126); color: #054a61; font-family: merriweather, georgia, "droid serif", cambria, "times new roman", times, serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: inherit; text-decoration-line: none !important;" target="_blank">aerial images in Mozambique showed countless homes underwater</a><span style="background-color: white; color: #09222b; font-family: merriweather, georgia, "droid serif", cambria, "times new roman", times, serif; font-size: 16px;">. Nearly 3 million people have been affected across the region, one of the poorest in the world.</span></div>
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I've been watching Gretta Thuberg videos. It's just so fascinating. And heart breaking. Here is a 16 year old who knows more about climate change than 99 percent of adults. But she's wired differently than the rest of us. She is a straight shooter. She lacks cognitive dissonance. She can't hold two opposing ideas in her head at the same time. The rest of say, "Yeah, its a big problem, but let's not think about it.". She thinks " Well, if it's a big problem, we should think about it. It's precisely what we should think about."</div>
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Maybe it's her super power. Maybe it's her curse.</div>
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Here's<a href="https://www.ted.com/talks/greta_thunberg_the_disarming_case_to_act_right_now_on_climate/up-next?language=en" style="color: #1155cc;"> her TED talk</a></div>
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<a href="https://youtu.be/GiD04TRwebQ" style="color: #1155cc;">Here she is with her dad.</a> </div>
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It's not easy being Gretta, or her dad.</div>
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The NYT had an op Ed piece by David Wallace Wells called "<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/16/opinion/sunday/fear-panic-climate-change-warming.html" style="color: #1155cc;">Time to Panic"</a>, which makes the same basic point. Time is running out. And he explains with charts and graphs what's going to happen</div>
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<span style="font-family: nyt-imperial, georgia, "times new roman", times, serif; font-size: 21.375px;">"As temperatures rise, this could mean many of the biggest cities in the Middle East and South Asia would become lethally hot in summer, perhaps as soon as 2050. There would be ice-free summers in the Arctic and the unstoppable disintegration of the West Antarctic’s ice sheet, which some scientists believe has already begun, threatening the world’s coastal cities with inundation. Coral reefs would mostly disappear. And there would be tens of millions of climate refugees, perhaps many more, fleeing droughts, flooding and extreme heat, and the possibility of multiple climate-driven natural disasters striking simultaneously.</span></div>
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Nevertheless, we expect things to go on as they are</div>
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"I know the science is true, I know the threat is all-encompassing, and I know its effects, should emissions continue unabated, will be terrifying. And yet, when I imagine my life three decades from now, or the life of my daughter five decades now, I have to admit that I am not imagining a world on fire but one similar to the one we have now. That is how hard it is to shake complacency. We are all living in delusion, unable to really process the news from science that climate change amounts to an all-encompassing threat. Indeed, a threat the size of life itself.</div>
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How can we be this deluded? One answer comes from behavioral economics. The scroll of cognitive biases identified by psychologists and fellow travelers over the past half-century can seem, like a social media feed, bottomless, and they distort and distend our perception of a changing climate. These optimistic prejudices, prophylactic biases and emotional reflexes form an entire library of climate delusion.</div>
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We build our view of the universe outward from our own experience, a reflexive tendency that surely shapes our ability to comprehend genuinely existential threats to the species. We have a tendency to wait for others to act, rather than acting ourselves; a preference for the present situation; a disinclination to change things; and an excess of confidence that we can change things easily, should we need to, no matter the scale. We can’t see anything but through cataracts of self-deception."</div>
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This "feature "of human psycho!ogy is very useful to the energy companies, who have, as<a href="https://www.counterpunch.org/2019/02/14/capitalisms-ownership-of-global-warming/" style="color: #1155cc;"> Robert Hunzicer points out,</a> inserted themselves into the COP process.</div>
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" Fossil fuel companies were significant sponsors at COP24 in Katowice. Their logos were ubiquitous. And, at a mind-blowing out of this world event, the Polish Pavilion was stuffed full of actual lumps of black coal, as samplers.</div>
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Poland’s President Andrzej Duda told COP24 delegates: “Using coal is not in contradiction with climate protection in Poland because we can lower the emissions and ensure economic growth at the same time.” What!!! Who falls for this kind of claptrap?</div>
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ExxonMobil pledged to cut its methane emissions and contribute funds for a carbon tax campaign in the U.S. Oh, please, stop it! Pseudo solutions like carbon markets and geo-engineering promises (that don’t work to scale) are pushed by corporate interests to legitimatize their current CO2 emissions. Oh please! It’s a ruse because if you lay claim to geo-engineering technology that fixes CO2 emissions, then you legitimize using as much fossil fuel as your little heart desires. But, the brutal truth is the technology is not perfected. Not by a long shot. Then what?"</div>
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Here in the US, there is some new interest in dealing with the climate problem. Unfortunately many see it as just another club to bash the other side in the" <a href="https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2018/11/02/culture-war-liberals-conservatives-trump-2018-222095" style="color: #1155cc;">culture wars".</a> </div>
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Meanwhile Gretta is still waiting </div>
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Walterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18048738723369282833noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1190362411119958387.post-55565341032803230162019-01-27T14:48:00.000-08:002019-01-27T14:48:33.954-08:00The Kids Are All Right<br />
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How can we sleep</div>
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When our beds are burning? </div>
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-Midnight Oil</div>
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Butterflies and seabirds</div>
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And fairy tales</div>
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_Jimi Hendrix</div>
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Good news<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.resilience.org/stories/2019-01-08/supreme-court-issues-crushing-blow-to-exxon-in-major-climate-case-legal-experts-say/&source=gmail&ust=1548713285655000&usg=AFQjCNFIAY1vGGrrMG3rdPIRvKZAtA7meg" href="https://www.resilience.org/stories/2019-01-08/supreme-court-issues-crushing-blow-to-exxon-in-major-climate-case-legal-experts-say/" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank"> Supreme Court hands Exon Crushing blow</a></div>
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<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2019/01/washington-governor-jay-inslee-running-president/579217&source=gmail&ust=1548713285655000&usg=AFQjCNFGoCA1EMtu_WZi3P_SOd-2DloTQw" href="https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2019/01/washington-governor-jay-inslee-running-president/579217" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">Jay Inslee Runs for President on Climate Change Platform</a></div>
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PSA Joint Committee on Carbon Reduction 1/28 5:00 pm</div>
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Greetings</div>
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How about those kids? Here's <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.counterpunch.org/2019/01/02/greta-joan-of-arc-thunberg-shames-leaders-at-cop24/&source=gmail&ust=1548713285655000&usg=AFQjCNGBkBOuRoKWim695xV33MNxsLEkNQ" href="https://www.counterpunch.org/2019/01/02/greta-joan-of-arc-thunberg-shames-leaders-at-cop24/" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">what 14 year old Greta Thunberg says</a> to world leaders</div>
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For 25 years countless people have stood in front of the UN climate conferences, asking our nation’s leaders to stop the emissions. But, clearly, this has not worked since the emissions just continue to rise.</div>
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So I will not ask them anything.</div>
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Instead, I will ask the media to start treating the crisis as a crisis.</div>
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Instead, I will ask the people around the world to realize that our political leaders have failed us.</div>
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Because we are facing an existential threat and there is no time to continue down this road of madness… <b>So we have not come here to beg the world leaders to care for our future. They have ignored us in the past and they will ignore us again.</b></div>
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We have come here to let them know that change is coming whether they like it or not.</div>
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Here's the<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=http://www.scientistswarning.org&source=gmail&ust=1548713285655000&usg=AFQjCNEla5wOvkYGDEn0sWsz4zRL8Oy_Bw" href="http://www.scientistswarning.org/" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank"> video</a></div>
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Also :</div>
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<span style="background-color: aliceblue; color: #333333; font-family: georgia, garamond, baskerville, "times new roman", times, serif; font-size: 16px;">Adults keep saying we owe it to the young people, to give them hope,” [Greta] Thunberg said, “But I don’t want your hope. I don’t want you to be hopeful. I want you to panic. I want you to feel the fear I feel every day. I want you to act. I want you to act as you would in a crisis<b>. I want you to act as if the house is on fire, because it is.</b>”</span></div>
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It's quite refreshing to see this young women "tell it like it is"}</div>
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We must not "continue down this road of madness"</div>
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Here is a quick peak at the madness Yesterday's paper carried a report about the unprecedented heat wave in Australia.</div>
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<span style="font-family: nyt-imperial, georgia, "times new roman", times, serif; font-size: 21.375px;">"This month, fruit growers in South Australia reported that<b> the pits in peaches and nectarines had gotten so hot that they burned the fruit from the inside. (Nyt)</b></span></div>
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Butterflies and Seabirds? </div>
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<span style="font-family: nyt-imperial, georgia, "times new roman", times, serif; font-size: 21.375px;">The total number of West Coast monarchs was estimated at approximately 4.5 million in the 1980s. In the latest count, that number fell to 28,429, dipping below the number scientists estimate is needed to keep the population going. (NYT) </span><span style="font-family: nyt-imperial, georgia, "times new roman", times, serif; font-size: 21.375px;">See also.<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.google.com/url?sa%3Dt%26source%3Dweb%26rct%3Dj%26url%3Dhttps://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/27/magazine/insect-apocalypse.html%26ved%3D2ahUKEwiNqYy3gIzgAhVFNX0KHRqdD-YQjjgwAHoECAYQAQ%26usg%3DAOvVaw0CmySRGYknQN6-w8_ue6XV&source=gmail&ust=1548713285655000&usg=AFQjCNFK1OwvAlr1J56goZc6lduH6ASURw" href="https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/27/magazine/insect-apocalypse.html&ved=2ahUKEwiNqYy3gIzgAhVFNX0KHRqdD-YQjjgwAHoECAYQAQ&usg=AOvVaw0CmySRGYknQN6-w8_ue6XV" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank"> The Insect Apocalypse is Here</a>. (New York Times)</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: nyt-imperial, georgia, "times new roman", times, serif; font-size: 21.375px;">As for seabirds</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white; font-family: verdana; font-size: 12px;">Over a 60-year period up to 2010, for example, <b>worldwide seabird</b></span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: verdana; font-size: 12px;"><b> populations declined by approximately 70%</b></span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: verdana; font-size: 12px;">, </span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: verdana; font-size: 12px;">and globally, species are being lost 1,000 times faster than the natural rate of extinction (9, 10). </span></div>
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Other kids are beginning to make noise The<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://rebellion.earth/&source=gmail&ust=1548713285655000&usg=AFQjCNFhUbEqkzxAMUbet2XXF0iIyJPHBw" href="https://rebellion.earth/" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank"> Extinction Rebellion</a> started im 2018, already has groups om 35 coumyties. see<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://popularresistance.org/extinction-rebellion-climate-shutdown-shakes-new-york/&source=gmail&ust=1548713285655000&usg=AFQjCNG9RwhQ2JqHdMvnUb0rudbQNfjnuw" href="https://popularresistance.org/extinction-rebellion-climate-shutdown-shakes-new-york/" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank"> here</a> and<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.resilience.org/stories/2019-01-11/confronting-extinction&source=gmail&ust=1548713285655000&usg=AFQjCNEfZ1yO9FfMnUBbA2t1yXLxEeKw3A" href="https://www.resilience.org/stories/2019-01-11/confronting-extinction" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank"> here </a>Portland Group <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://actionnetwork.org/groups/xr-portland-or&source=gmail&ust=1548713285655000&usg=AFQjCNGS7AoYGPm6H2HiSs3qk4hnnI9XBg" href="https://actionnetwork.org/groups/xr-portland-or" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">here</a></div>
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Alexandria Ocasio- Cortez (AOC) is grabbing lots of attention promoting the Green New Deal. According to some 80% support the Green New Deal But that may be because it means different things to different people. See <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.vox.com/platform/amp/energy-and-environment/2019/1/15/18181678/green-new-deal-100-percent-renewable-energy-nuclear-ccs&source=gmail&ust=1548713285655000&usg=AFQjCNGNh24Gjkc5xCFE3eE_R-YQiEgbsw" href="https://www.vox.com/platform/amp/energy-and-environment/2019/1/15/18181678/green-new-deal-100-percent-renewable-energy-nuclear-ccs" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">here</a></div>
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One thing hat the it seems to contain is continued economic growth. This of course requires "decoupling" of carbon from growth. This is a very risky strategy. It's not clear whether the proponents understand just how risky it is. But we hope</div>
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We seem to have a natural desire to believe fairy tales. Whether it's too cheap to meter, the hydrogen highway, corn based bio-fuel, cold fusion, algea based bio-fuel,<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://e360.yale.edu/features/carbon-loophole-why-is-wood-burning-counted-as-green-energy&source=gmail&ust=1548713285655000&usg=AFQjCNH_VIgvjyyTh07o1LbaRprhc54x-w" href="https://e360.yale.edu/features/carbon-loophole-why-is-wood-burning-counted-as-green-energy" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank"> burning wood as "green" power</a>, ehatever. </div>
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A very interesting article by Dave Robert's looks closely at recent studies on decoupling. . He notes that recent studies call the notion of decoupling into question. Simply put there is no precedent for such a rapid change. It has never happened before and to assume it will happen the future can be seen as believing in magic, or fairy tales </div>
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First it's clear that currently rich countries that appear to be decoupling are merely exporting their carbon emissions.</div>
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They specifically distinguish two different ways of classifying emissions: <em style="font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: inherit; vertical-align: inherit;">territorial</em>, i.e., carbon emissions that take place within a country, and <em style="font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: inherit; vertical-align: inherit;">consumption-based</em>, i.e., the carbon emissions represented by the production and transport of the (often imported) goods and services consumed by citizens of a country. (By way of example, consider a television that is manufactured in China and shipped to America. Which country is responsible for the emissions involved? Territorially, China. In consumption-based terms, America.)</div>
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In a nutshell, they found that “over this period there is some evidence of decoupling between economic growth and territorial emissions, but no evidence of decoupling for consumption-based emissions.” As economies get wealthier, they tend to offshore carbon-intensive industries, shift to more service-based economies, and clean up their energy sectors; emissions generated within their borders decline. They (at least partially) decouple their growth from territorial emissions.</div>
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But as they get wealthier, they consume more, and every bit they consume represents carbon emissions generated somewhere else. A<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-weight: 700; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: inherit; vertical-align: inherit;"> </span>country with a growing, developed economy may produce fewer emissions directly, but is still responsible for more greenhouse gases with every bit it grows. Again, consumption-based emissions are not decoupling from growth.</div>
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According to this study</div>
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" The world’s current economies are not capable of the emission reductions required to limit temperature rise to 2 degrees. If world leaders insist on maintaining historical rates of economic growth, and there are no step-change advances in technology, hitting that target requires a rate of reduction in carbon intensity for which there is simply no precedent. Despite all the recent hype about decoupling, there’s no historical evidence that current economies are decoupling at anything close to the rate required.</div>
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“The key insight,” they write, “is that marginal, incremental improvements in energy and carbon efficiency cannot do the job and that what is needed is a structural transformation.” In other words, 2 degrees requires radicalism.</div>
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“Without a concerted (global) policy shift to deep decarbonization, a rapid transition to renewable energy sources, structural change in production, consumption, and transportation, and a transformation of finance,” they write, “the decoupling will not even come close to what is needed.”</div>
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see also <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/09/12/why-growth-cant-be-green/&source=gmail&ust=1548713285655000&usg=AFQjCNGlRz5y67RotboAPvrNxoQFB0rB6A" href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/09/12/why-growth-cant-be-green/" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">Why growth cant be green</a>. (Foreign Policy)</div>
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<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/sep/26/economic-growth-fossil-fuels-habit-oil-industry&source=gmail&ust=1548713285655000&usg=AFQjCNE3lEh8At2saHHxQJi9IB1jODN2mA" href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/sep/26/economic-growth-fossil-fuels-habit-oil-industry" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">George Monbiot puts it this way</a></div>
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<span style="background-color: #fef9f5; color: #121212; font-family: "guardian text egyptian web", georgia, serif; font-size: 17px;">We're getting there, aren’t we? We’re making the transition </span><span style="background-color: #fef9f5; color: #121212; font-family: "guardian text egyptian web", georgia, serif; font-size: 17px;"> towards an all-electric future. We can now leave fossil fuels in the ground and thwart climate breakdown. Or so you might imagine, if you follow the technology news.</span></blockquote>
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So how come oil production, for the first time in history, is about to hit <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-oil-demand-peak/now-near-100-million-bpd-when-will-oil-demand-peak-idUKKCN1M01TC&source=gmail&ust=1548713285655000&usg=AFQjCNF2F6IZNR9DeKxSSPOYAJUWDMOyAw" href="https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-oil-demand-peak/now-near-100-million-bpd-when-will-oil-demand-peak-idUKKCN1M01TC" rel="noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer" style="background: transparent; border-bottom: 0.0625rem solid rgb(220, 220, 220); color: #e05e00; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">100m barrels a day</a>? How come the oil industry <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/sep/23/opec-predicts-massive-rise-in-oil-production-over-next-five-years&source=gmail&ust=1548713285655000&usg=AFQjCNFKI2CqVwaPurReOGS5rUMpYdxRng" href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/sep/23/opec-predicts-massive-rise-in-oil-production-over-next-five-years" rel="noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer" style="background: transparent; border-bottom: 0.0625rem solid rgb(220, 220, 220); color: #e05e00; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">expects demand to climb</a> until the 2030s? How is it that in Germany, whose energy transition (<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=http://www.energiewende-global.com/en/&source=gmail&ust=1548713285655000&usg=AFQjCNE6rXDohw50Ym4i3BljgBQaCAcZpA" href="http://www.energiewende-global.com/en/" rel="noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer" style="background: transparent; border-bottom: 0.0625rem solid rgb(220, 220, 220); color: #e05e00; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank"><em>Energiewende</em></a>) was supposed to be a model for the world, protesters are being <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.redpepper.org.uk/the-battle-of-hambacher-forest/&source=gmail&ust=1548713285655000&usg=AFQjCNHGQuKD9xcmNTegcKARW85hLLCXZg" href="https://www.redpepper.org.uk/the-battle-of-hambacher-forest/" rel="noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer" style="background: transparent; border-bottom: 0.0625rem solid rgb(220, 220, 220); color: #e05e00; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">beaten up by police</a> as they <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://hambachforest.org/&source=gmail&ust=1548713285655000&usg=AFQjCNHG8H1FUm_S2mvAEPDAtIe5OPlkKA" href="https://hambachforest.org/" rel="noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer" style="background: transparent; border-bottom: 0.0625rem solid rgb(220, 220, 220); color: #e05e00; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">try to defend the 12,000-year-old Hambacher forest</a> from an opencast mine extracting lignite – the dirtiest form of coal? Why have investments in Canadian tar sands – the dirtiest source of oil – <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/mar/28/extreme-fossil-fuel-investments-have-surged-under-donald-trump-report-reveals&source=gmail&ust=1548713285655000&usg=AFQjCNGjKi5vThJ4uZ3WTBnfphvs73uOrQ" href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/mar/28/extreme-fossil-fuel-investments-have-surged-under-donald-trump-report-reveals" rel="noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer" style="background: transparent; border-bottom: 0.0625rem solid rgb(220, 220, 220); color: #e05e00; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">doubled in a year</a>?</div>
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The answer is, growth. There may be more electric vehicles on the world’s roads, but there are also more internal combustion engines. There be more bicycles, but there are also more planes. It doesn’t matter how many good things we do: preventing climate breakdown means ceasing to do bad things. Given that economic growth, in nations that are already rich enough to meet the needs of all, requires an increase in <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2012/dec/10/on-12th-day-christmas-present-junk&source=gmail&ust=1548713285655000&usg=AFQjCNFl5nTGkdRSjs8ugJzoFxsIbnavuw" href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2012/dec/10/on-12th-day-christmas-present-junk" rel="noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer" style="background: transparent; border-bottom: 0.0625rem solid rgb(220, 220, 220); color: #e05e00; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">pointless consumption</a>, it is hard to see <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id%3D10.1371/journal.pone.0164733&source=gmail&ust=1548713285655000&usg=AFQjCNF67PVUHXOzqi_thYIOKGDyJDWiGw" href="https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0164733" rel="noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer" style="background: transparent; border-bottom: 0.0625rem solid rgb(220, 220, 220); color: #e05e00; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">how it can ever be decoupled</a> from the assault on the living planet</div>
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<span style="background-color: #fef9f5; color: #121212; font-family: "guardian text egyptian web", georgia, serif; font-size: 17px;"> When a low carbon industry expands within a growing economy, the money it generates stimulates high-carbon industry. Anyone who works in this field knows environmental entrepreneurs, eco-consultants and green business managers who use their earnings to pay for holidays in distant parts of the world and the flights required to get there. Electric vehicles have driven a new resource rush, </span><a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.wired.co.uk/article/lithium-batteries-environment-impact&source=gmail&ust=1548713285655000&usg=AFQjCNE2IlbCR6lbkS2_USG3qPSsFoasyQ" href="https://www.wired.co.uk/article/lithium-batteries-environment-impact" rel="noreferrer noreferrer" style="background: rgb(254, 249, 245); border-bottom: 0.0625rem solid rgb(220, 220, 220); color: #e05e00; font-family: "guardian text egyptian web", georgia, serif; font-size: 17px; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">particularly for lithium</a><span style="background-color: #fef9f5; color: #121212; font-family: "guardian text egyptian web", georgia, serif; font-size: 17px;">, that is already polluting rivers and trashing precious wild places. Clean growth is as much of an oxymoron as clean coal. But making this obvious statement in public life is treated as political suicide.</span></blockquote>
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So, is insisting on more economic growth "acting like the house is om fire"? I doubt it. Is it worth the risk?</div>
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The problem is that a growing industrial economy has produced lots of goodies, and so it appears to be "unthinkable" that we could operate things in any other way. Even if we have to "burn down the house"</div>
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<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/ncna957691&source=gmail&ust=1548713285655000&usg=AFQjCNFRL28vJ_wZA9_b7mCFk3ZpU8ZB6g" href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/ncna957691" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">Here's what Jay Inslee says:</a></div>
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #2a2a2a; font-family: publicotext, georgia, timesnewroman, "times new roman", times, baskerville, serif; font-size: 18px;">When you want college education for your kids, when you want better health care, when you want net neutrality, when you want all of those things, but your house is on fire and it's burning down, you've got to put the fire out first and get your family out of the house," he said.</span></blockquote>
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Looking at pointless consumption, how about this sensible suggestion. Suppose the top 20% tightened our belts a little. After all it is " our" lifestyle that is the problem. </div>
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Here's an interesting alternative from <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.oxfam.org/en/pressroom/pressreleases/2015-12-02/worlds-richest-10-produce-half-carbon-emissions-while-preduced5&source=gmail&ust=1548713285655000&usg=AFQjCNF2LxLr4g2KK9wMFSpsynCygxbADw" href="https://www.oxfam.org/en/pressroom/pressreleases/2015-12-02/worlds-richest-10-produce-half-carbon-emissions-while-preduced5" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">Kevin Anderson</a></div>
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<strong>KEVIN ANDERSON:</strong> Well, firstly, although Oxfam used that data, that originally came from some work by Lucas Chancel and Thomas Piketty, and Piketty is well known for his work as an economist. And that demonstrates that rather than necessarily always focusing on countries, we need to focus on the people who are actually emitting. So the idea that 10 percent of the global population are responsible for 50 percent of global emissions, or 20 percent of the global population are responsible for 70 percent of all global emissions, tells us that we need to be tailoring our policies towards that small group, rather than trying to squeeze the emissions out of the majority of the world’s population, who are hardly emitting anything at all.</div>
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So, one of the ways to explain this that I often use, which will hopefully be helpful, is that if that 10 percent of high emitters reduce their carbon footprint, their individual carbon footprint, to the level of the average European citizen, that would be equivalent of a one-third cut in global emissions, even if the other 90 percent did nothing. I mean, a one-third cut in global emissions just from the 10 percent reducing to the level of the average European citizen.</div>
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I'll close with some more words from <a href="https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2018/12/28/18156094/conditional-optimism-climate-change" style="color: #1155cc;">Dave Roberts</a></div>
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In a sense, we’re already screwed, at least to some extent. The climate is already changing and it’s already taking a <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-46637102" style="border-bottom: 1px solid transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #4f7177; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-weight: 600; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: inherit; transition: color 0.1s ease 0s, background-color 0.1s ease 0s, fill 0.1s ease 0s; vertical-align: inherit;">measurable toll</a>. Lots more change is “baked in” by recent and current emissions. One way or another, when it comes to the effects of climate change, we’re in for worse.</div>
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But we have some choice in how screwed we are, and that choice will remain open to us no matter how hot it gets. Even if temperature rise exceeds 2 degrees, the basic structure of the challenge will remain the same. It will still be warming. It will still get worse for humanity the more it warms. Two degrees will be bad, but three would be worse, four worse than that, and five worse still.</div>
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Indeed, if we cross 2 degrees, the need for sustainability becomes more urgent, not less. At that point, we will be flirting with non-trivial tail risks of species-threatening — or at least civilization-threatening — effects.</div>
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In sum: humanity faces the urgent imperative to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, then eliminate them, and then go “net carbon negative,” i.e., absorb and sequester more carbon from the atmosphere than it emits. It will face that imperative for several generations to come, no matter what the temperature is.</div>
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Yes, it’s going to get worse, but nobody gets to give up hope or stop fighting. Sorry.</div>
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Walterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18048738723369282833noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1190362411119958387.post-31839906422736519512018-12-10T14:37:00.000-08:002018-12-10T14:37:19.131-08:00<br />
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Torn between two lovers</div>
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-Mary MacGregor</div>
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Public Service Announcement </div>
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Joint Interim Committee on Carbon Reduction meeting December 13</div>
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Greetings</div>
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Is it just me, or does it seem like things are accelerating? It's been as busy couple of weeks </div>
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The Washington Post sums it up better than I can</div>
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"In October, a top U.N.-backed scientific panel found that nations have barely a decade to take “<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.washingtonpost.com/energy-environment/2018/10/08/world-has-only-years-get-climate-change-under-control-un-scientists-say/?utm_term%3D.cdfeb616320a&source=gmail&ust=1544566420659000&usg=AFQjCNHM48iLaA38-XUdQntjMPTQ5mBupQ" href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/energy-environment/2018/10/08/world-has-only-years-get-climate-change-under-control-un-scientists-say/?utm_term=.cdfeb616320a" rel="noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer" style="background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(213, 213, 213); color: #2c6cb4; font-size: 17.744px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">unprecedented</a>” actions and cut their emissions in half by 2030 to prevent the worst consequences of climate change. The panel’s report found “no documented historic precedent” for the rapid changes to the infrastructure of society that would be needed to hold warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) above preindustrial levels.</div>
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The day after Thanksgiving, the Trump administration released a nearly <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.washingtonpost.com/energy-environment/2018/11/23/major-trump-administration-climate-report-says-damages-are-intensifying-across-country/?utm_term%3D.8432e00ab727&source=gmail&ust=1544566420659000&usg=AFQjCNFfZbeYf4MiZZ18_nOQZqP83JLNuQ" href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/energy-environment/2018/11/23/major-trump-administration-climate-report-says-damages-are-intensifying-across-country/?utm_term=.8432e00ab727" rel="noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer" style="background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(213, 213, 213); color: #2c6cb4; font-size: 17.744px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">1,700-page report</a> co-written by hundreds of scientists finding that climate change is already causing increasing damage to the United States. That was followed by another report detailing the growing gap between the commitments made at earlier U.N. conferences and what is needed to steer the planet off its calamitous path.</div>
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Then, we learned that 2018 was a record year for emissions. from the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/05/climate/greenhouse-gas-emissions-2018.html" style="color: #1155cc;">New York Times</a></div>
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: nyt-imperial, georgia, "times new roman", times, serif; font-size: 19px;">"Worldwide, carbon emissions are expected to increase by <b>2.7 percent in 2018</b>, </span><a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.earth-syst-sci-data.net/10/2141/2018/&source=gmail&ust=1544566420659000&usg=AFQjCNH8v33pkqlwwBc2sRGyPGalECgyQQ" href="https://www.earth-syst-sci-data.net/10/2141/2018/" rel="noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; color: #326891; font-family: nyt-imperial, georgia, "times new roman", times, serif; font-size: 19px; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">according to the new research</a><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: nyt-imperial, georgia, "times new roman", times, serif; font-size: 19px;">, which was published by the </span><a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=http://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget/&source=gmail&ust=1544566420659000&usg=AFQjCNFrH4FR0lp6al2ZCYCCtR1kyWIdwQ" href="http://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget/" rel="noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; color: #326891; font-family: nyt-imperial, georgia, "times new roman", times, serif; font-size: 19px; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">Global Carbon Project</a><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: nyt-imperial, georgia, "times new roman", times, serif; font-size: 19px;">, a</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: nyt-imperial, georgia, "times new roman", times, serif; font-size: 19px;"> group</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: nyt-imperial, georgia, "times new roman", times, serif; font-size: 19px;"> of 100 scientists from more than 50 academic and research institutions and one of the few organizations to comprehensively examine global emissions numbers. </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: nyt-imperial, georgia, "times new roman", times, serif; font-size: 19px;">Emissions rose </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: nyt-imperial, georgia, "times new roman", times, serif; font-size: 19px;">1.6 percent last year, the researchers said, ending a three-year plateau</span></div>
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And that temperatures are not rising in as straight line, but are accelerating. from<a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-07586-5?fbclid=IwAR1qd0gD98NNOs0S2929UMtbSXwdJdpKsOZ9I_CUEobfD1jluZdtcDelEAg" style="color: #1155cc;"> Nature</a></div>
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"Three trends — rising emissions, declining air pollution, and natural climate cycles — will combine over the next 20 years to make climate change faster and more furious than anticipated. In our view, there’s a good chance that we could breach the 1.5 °C level by 2030, not by 2040 as projected in the special report (see ‘Accelerated warming’). The climate-modeling community has not grappled enough with the rapid changes that policymakers care most about, preferring to focus on longer-term trends and equilibria.</div>
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Sources: Ref. 1/GISTEMP/IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (2014)</div>
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<span style="color: #222222; font-family: lora, palatino, times, times new roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 17px;">We know we need to have a carbon emissions peak by 2020. <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/world-faces-impossible-task-at-post-paris-climate-talks/2018/11/28/03942a7e-f2fb-11e8-99c2-cfca6fcf610c_story.html?noredirect=on&utm_term=.7ca662587d55" style="color: #1155cc;">Washington Post</a></span></span></div>
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Everyone recognized that the national plans, when you add everything up, will take us way beyond 3, potentially 4 degrees Celsius warming," said Johan Rockstrom, the incoming director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research.</div>
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"We know that we're moving in the wrong direction," Rockstrom told the AP. "We need to bend the global carbon emissions no later than 2020 - in two years' time - to stand a chance to stay under 2 degrees Celsius."</div>
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<span style="font-family: lora, palatino, times, "times new roman", serif; font-size: 17px;">But, currently, it looks like we might not have a carbon emissions peak until 2030. The</span><a href="https://www.unenvironment.org/resources/emissions-gap-report-2018" style="color: #1155cc; font-family: lora, palatino, times, "times new roman", serif; font-size: 17px;"> UN Gap Report</a><span style="font-family: lora, palatino, times, "times new roman", serif; font-size: 17px;"> says </span></div>
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Concerns about the current level of both ambition </div>
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and action are thus amplified compared to </div>
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previous Emissions Gap Reports. According to </div>
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the current policy and NDC scenarios, global </div>
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emissions are not estimated to peak by 2030, let </div>
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The problem? The monkey trap. We can't let go of economic growth. From<a href="https://www.resilience.org/stories/2018-12-06/cop24-climate-protesters-must-get-radical-and-challenge-economic-growth/" style="color: #1155cc;"> Resilience</a> </div>
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Economic growth measures the increase in the number of goods and services produced by an economy over time, and it has historically been tightly coupled with CO₂ emissions. Decoupling these two factors <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959652615008331&source=gmail&ust=1544566420659000&usg=AFQjCNE20oGyFbFHnZFVLQ4M67WQr5WSKQ" href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959652615008331" rel="noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer" style="background-color: transparent; color: #009bc5; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">is not impossible</a>, and indeed many leading academics argue that the power of human ingenuity will solve the climate crisis. However, this is certainly <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://books.google.co.uk/books?hl%3Den%26lr%3D%26id%3DdGt0Rogq6MIC%26oi%3Dfnd%26pg%3DPA1%26dq%3DDecoupling%2BNatural%2BResource%2BUse%2Band%2BEnvironmental%2BImpacts%2Bfrom%2BEconomic%2BGrowth%26ots%3DjwJ-muVPz5%26sig%3DF7orFeveR2b0SShqH4DFzFwPH0w%23v%3Donepage%26q%3DDecoupling%252520Natural%252520Resource%252520Use%252520and%252520Environmental%252520Impacts%252520from%252520Economic%252520Growth%26f%3Dfalse&source=gmail&ust=1544566420659000&usg=AFQjCNGSFUQ4MbnfZ4hnC8Uk3zLzsFMWdA" href="https://books.google.co.uk/books?hl=en&lr=&id=dGt0Rogq6MIC&oi=fnd&pg=PA1&dq=Decoupling+Natural+Resource+Use+and+Environmental+Impacts+from+Economic+Growth&ots=jwJ-muVPz5&sig=F7orFeveR2b0SShqH4DFzFwPH0w#v=onepage&q=Decoupling%2520Natural%2520Resource%2520Use%2520and%2520Environmental%2520Impacts%2520from%2520Economic%2520Growth&f=false" rel="noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer" style="background-color: transparent; color: #009bc5; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">unlikely in the timescales needed</a> to tackle climate change in a just and equitable way.</div>
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So, we now enter a new phase . Harvard scientists have started experimenting with solar geoengineering. from<a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2018/11/30/18117858/geoengineering-harvard-study-solar-particles" style="color: #1155cc;"> Vox</a></div>
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And while solar geoengineering helps address the temperature issues related to global warming, that’s hardly the only concern with climate change. As Irfan <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.vox.com/2018/8/8/17662208/volcanoes-geoengineering-climate-change-food-crops&source=gmail&ust=1544566420660000&usg=AFQjCNHevqrEEOaix5-g0V8cp5R-g-DBlw" href="https://www.vox.com/2018/8/8/17662208/volcanoes-geoengineering-climate-change-food-crops" style="background-color: transparent !important; border-bottom: 1px solid transparent; color: #4f7177; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit !important; font-style: inherit; font-weight: 600; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: inherit; vertical-align: inherit;" target="_blank">notes</a>, geoengineering could threaten crop yields by reducing crops’ access to sunlight, and it does not address <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://geoengineering.environment.harvard.edu/geoengineering&source=gmail&ust=1544566420660000&usg=AFQjCNHv9VbfiP6s0Wx-Uzi8WtOudNVNjg" href="https://geoengineering.environment.harvard.edu/geoengineering" style="background-color: transparent !important; border-bottom: 1px solid transparent; color: #4f7177; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit !important; font-style: inherit; font-weight: 600; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: inherit; vertical-align: inherit;" target="_blank">ocean acidification</a>, a significant environmental threat associated with climate change.</div>
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But if the world continues on its current emissions path, we might have to choose, in 2030 or 2040 or 2050, between the (quite bad) option of geoengineering and the (also quite bad) option of enduring and adapting to the effects of large-scale global warming. And the Harvard experiment could help us understand which of those two bad options would be worse.</div>
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Walterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18048738723369282833noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1190362411119958387.post-4451208234505458642018-11-15T14:20:00.000-08:002018-11-15T14:20:26.678-08:00The art of the possible<br />
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Come Senators Congressmen</div>
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Well, the election returns are in, and the results are not that good for the environment. Citizens of several states, unhappy with the pace of legislative action attempted to appeal directly to the people. The fossil fuel companies joined the fight, and the people were persuaded by their arguments. However some environmentally minded representatives were elected. See<a href="https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2018/11/7/18069940/election-results-2018-energy-carbon-fracking-ballot-initiatives" style="color: #1155cc;"> here</a> and <a href="https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2018/11/12/18078156/midterms-2018-climate-change-renewable-energy" style="color: #1155cc;">here</a></div>
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The current political situation means that the only movement in the next two years will be with states and cities. In the meantime it is encouraging to see young people getting organized and putting pressure on the democratic establishment to put together a climate program for 2020. See<a href="https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2018/11/14/18094452/alexandria-ocasio-cortez-nancy-pelosi-protest-climate-change-2020" style="color: #1155cc;"> here</a></div>
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On Tuesday, close to 200 climate activists crowded into the Capitol Building offices of House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, who will re-assume the position of House speaker when the new Congress is sworn in come January.</div>
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Meanwhile<a href="https://qz.com/1417078/global-carbon-emissions-are-set-to-rise-in-2018/" style="color: #1155cc;"> carbon emissions continue to rise</a>. And<a href="https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/2018/11/climate-change-california-wildfire/" style="color: #1155cc;"> the effects of 1 degree continue to be felt in places liked California</a>. So, where does that leave us? Here is one way to describe it. In short, keeping below two degrees is very unlikely if not impossible. Bellow three is the new target. Two is a long-term disaster, three is a short-term one. see<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/08/01/magazine/climate-change-losing-earth.html#prologue" style="color: #1155cc;"> here</a></div>
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<i>The odds of succeeding, according to a recent study based on current emissions trends, are one in 20. If by some miracle we are able to limit warming to two degrees, we will only have to negotiate the extinction of the world’s tropical reefs, a sea -level rise of several meters and the abandonment of the Persian Gulf. The climate scientist James Hansen has called two-degree warming “a prescription for long-term disaster.” Long-term disaster is now the best-case scenario. Three-degree warming is a prescription for short-term disaster: forests in the Arctic and the loss of most coastal cities. Robert Watson, a former director of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, has argued that three-degree warming is the realistic minimum. Four degrees: Europe in permanent drought; vast areas of China, Indi, a Bangladesh claimed by desert; Polynesia swallowed by the sea; the Colorado River thinned to a trickle; the American Southwest largely uninhabitable. The prospect of a five-degree warming has prompted some of the world’s leading climate scientists to warn of the end of human civilization</i></div>
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<i>Caldeira and a colleague recently published a paper in Nature finding that the world is warming more quickly than most climate models predict. The toughest emissions reductions now being proposed, even by the most committed nations, will probably fail to achieve “any given global temperature stabilization target.”</i></div>
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<i>More carbon has been released into the atmosphere since the final day of the Noordwijk conference, Nov. 7, 1989, than in the entire history of civilization preceding it. In 1990, humankind emitted more than 20 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide. By 2017, the figure had risen to 32.5 billion metric tons, a record. Despite every action taken since the Charney report — the billions of dollars invested in research, the nonbinding treaties, the investments in renewable energy — the only number that counts, the total quantity of global greenhouse gas emitted per year, has continued its inexorable rise.</i></div>
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<span style="color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">The timetable for this approaching disaster is always changing, as new studies find that things are moving "faster than expected". One recent study suggests that the best guidance is the one described by the IPPC as the worst case. RCP8.5 </span></div>
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One reason is that the climate is changing faster than expected, leaving the models behind. As Ken Caldeira, one of the authors explained<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2017/12/06/the-most-accurate-climate-change-models-predict-the-most-alarming-consequences-study-claims/?utm_term=.2ccb6eb1e1f6" style="color: #1155cc;"> here</a> and<a href="https://www.technologyreview.com/s/609620/global-warmings-worst-case-projections-look-increasingly-likely/" style="color: #1155cc;"> here</a></div>
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But an emerging challenge is that the climate is changing faster than the models are improving, as real-world events occur that the models didn’t predict. Notably, Arctic sea ice is melting more rapidly than the models can explain, suggesting that the simulations aren’t fully capturing certain processes. </div>
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“We’re increasingly shifting from a mode of predicting what’s going to happen to a mode of trying to explain what happened,” Caldeira says.</div>
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See<a href="https://patricktbrown.org/2017/11/29/greater-future-global-warming-inferred-from-earths-recent-energy-budget/" style="color: #1155cc;"> here</a> for a detailed explanation of that study.</div>
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Here is the key graph:</div>
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<img alt="Brown Caldeira 2017 Nature" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/proxy/AVvXsEhpyCR5CIgNuaBsK8HkS9iboiruisE4SHdOSOCtygEy7R9c3dfBl03n4cu7slJjMLC3jIqjrhQo-TO5_MU-mAR7R8sQqSHhTb_gAmM3rZ1P2wjFEPJahebDnN8eq6wXcBA64-E_kwR3gGX2fUZ5rN6HGRuhORXgUxXLziqG188sbodJNKQpf5a9rDgfnXdd_bISj3nYMB0=s0-d-e1-ft" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; height: auto; margin: 5px 5px 0px; max-width: 622px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" /><div style="background: transparent; border: 0px; color: #777777; font-family: "helvetica neue", arial, helvetica, "nimbus sans l", sans-serif; font-size: 12px; margin: 5px 5px 24px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
Figure 2d</div>
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<span style="color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">This would suggest that unless things significantly change, the following temperatures can be expected in 2020: 1.25, 2030: 1.75, 2040: 2.0, 2050: 2.5 2060: 3, et cetera </span></div>
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But, hopefully, that prognosis is too pessimistic. After all, RCP8.5 assumes that the world will continue in its fossil-fueled ways for the rest of the century. It doesn't address the possibility of a peak in fossil fuel use, either because of supply or demand.</div>
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When could we reasonably expect such a peak? Well, <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/two-charts-show-how-fossil-fuels-could-peak-2020" style="color: #1155cc;">here </a>is a study from Carbon Tracker and Grantham that shows a scenario of peak carbon emissions by 2020. On the other hand, the International Energy Agency suggests that fossil fuels will continue to dominate energy use and that CO2 emissions will not peak before 2040. see<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/13/gas-to-overtake-coal-as-second-largest-energy-source-by-2030-says-iea.html" style="color: #1155cc;"> here</a>. See also.<a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/renewable-energy-is-surging-but-not-fast-enough-to-stop-warming/" style="color: #1155cc;"> Renewable energy is surging but not fast enough to stop warming</a></div>
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So, for now, lets split the difference and assume that CO2 peaks in 2030 and drops after that. Based on the Caldeira study, by 2030 we would be at 1.75 degrees above pre-industrial. What then? Do we get off the RCP 8.5 curve?</div>
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I'd suggest that we may actually stay on the curve for another 10-20 years for two reasons. First, after the peak we will continue to emit CO2, just at a lower level. The difference will be small for a while. I addition, as Dirk has pointed out, shutting down coal plants will reduce aerosols which are currently cooling the planet. See<a href="https://climate.nasa.gov/news/215/just-5-questions-aerosols/" style="color: #1155cc;"> here</a> (NASA) The removal of aerosols from the atmosphere will cause the temperature to rise by .5 to 1 degree. These factors may offset each other in the short term resulting in continued warming.. </div>
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But those temperature predictions are not the important point. What is important is what happens when we reach those temperatures. And once again the story keeps changing.</div>
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Here is what experts currently expect at various temperatures <span style="font-family: sans-serif;">From<a href="http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2018/10/un-says-climate-genocide-coming-but-its-worse-than-that.html" style="color: #1155cc;"> here</a>.</span><span style="font-family: sans-serif;"> </span></div>
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"At two degrees, the melting of ice sheets will pass a tipping point of collapse, flooding dozens of the world’s major cities this century. At that amount of warming, it is estimated, global GDP, per capita, will be cut by 13 percent. Four hundred million more people will suffer from water scarcity, and even in the northern latitudes heat waves will kill thousands each summer. It will be worse in the planet’s equatorial band. In India, where many cities now numbering in the many millions would become unbelievably hot, there would be 32 times as many extreme heat waves, each lasting five times as long and exposing, in total, 93 times more people. This is two degrees — practically speaking, our absolute best-case climate scenario.</div>
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At three degrees, southern Europe will be in permanent drought. The average drought in Central America would last 19 months and in the Caribbean 21 months. In northern Africa, the figure is 60 months — five years. The areas burned each year by wildfires would double in the Mediterranean and sextuple in the United States. Beyond the sea-level rise, which will already be swallowing cities from Miami Beach to Jakarta, damages just from river flooding will grow 30-fold in Bangladesh, 20-fold in India, and as much as 60-fold in the U.K. This is three degrees — better than we’d do it all the nations of the world honored their Paris commitments, which none of them are. Practically speaking, barring those dramatic tech deus ex machinas, this seems to me about as positive a realistic outcome as it is rational to expect.</div>
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At four degrees, there would be eight million cases of dengue fever each year in Latin America alone. Global grain yields could fall by as much as 50 percent, producing annual or close-to-annual food crises. The global economy would be more than 30 percent smaller than it would be without climate change, and we would see at least half again as much conflict and warfare as we do today. Possibly more. Our current trajectory, remember, takes us higher still, and while there are many reasons to think we will bend that curve soon — the plummeting cost of renewable energy, the growing global consensus about phasing out coal — it is worth remembering that, whatever you may have heard about the green revolution and the price of solar, at present, global carbon emissions are still growing.</div>
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None of the above is news — most of that data is drawn from <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://interactive.carbonbrief.org/impacts-climate-change-one-point-five-degrees-two-degrees/&source=gmail&ust=1542403825945000&usg=AFQjCNGv-8Q-oftHkZZ1wvQzV638cuYsGw" href="https://interactive.carbonbrief.org/impacts-climate-change-one-point-five-degrees-two-degrees/" rel="noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer" style="color: black; padding: 0px;" target="_blank">this single, conventional-wisdom fact sheet</a>. </div>
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But these expectations may be optimistic. Other studies are noting that more significant impacts can occur at lower temperatures.</div>
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Here's an example. Recently biologists study a wildlife preserve in Puerto Rico. This is an area which is far from the effects of humans. No poisons, no hunting. But no reserve can be far from climate change. Robert Hunziker reports on their findings<a href="https://www.counterpunch.org/2018/10/30/collapsing-rainforest-ecosystems/" style="color: #1155cc;"> here</a>. </div>
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Biologists Brad Lister and Andres Garcia of the Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México returned to Puerto Rico’s Luquillo Rainforest after 40 years, and what they found blew them away. The abundance of insects, and arthropods in general, declined by as much as 60-fold and average temps had risen by 2°C over the past four decades. According to the scientists, global warming is impacting the rainforest with distinctive gusto.</div>
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According to Lister: “It was just a collapse in the insect community. A really dramatic change… The insect populations in the Luquillo forest are crashing.” (Source: Climate-Driven Crash in a Rainforest Food Web, Every Day Matters, Oct. 22, 2018).</div>
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It doesn’t get much worse than “crashing” of ecosystem support systems, i.e., insects and arthropods in general, which are in the phylum Euarthropoda, inclusive of insects, arachnids, myriapods, and crustaceans. This equates to a loss of basic structures of biosphere life forces.</div>
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The research team believes<b> they are already seeing today what the recent IPCC report predicted for climate change in 2040. I</b>n their words: “It’s a harbinger of a global unraveling of natural systems.”</div>
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“The central question addressed by our research is why simultaneous, long-term declines in arthropods, lizards, frogs, and birds have occurred over the past four decades in the relatively undisturbed rainforests of northeastern Puerto Rico. Our analyses provide strong support for the hypothesis that climate warming has been a major factor driving reductions in arthropod abundance and that these declines have in turn precipitated decreases in forest insectivores in a classic bottom-up cascade.” (Lister)</div>
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The reference to "<span style="background-color: white; color: #111111; font-family: "source serif pro", serif; font-size: 18px;">what the recent IPCC report predicted for climate change in 2040", refers to the IPCC report that came out last month. It describes some of the impacts which are predicted if we reach 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial, and it suggests that this could happen as soon as 2040. See<a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/07/climate/ipcc-climate-report-2040.html" style="color: #1155cc;"> here from the New York Times</a></span></div>
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<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=http://www.ipcc.ch/report/sr15/&source=gmail&ust=1542403825945000&usg=AFQjCNFMSk8UkRIu4iro96qgfvqg6w5RSw" href="http://www.ipcc.ch/report/sr15/" rel="noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer" style="border: 0px; color: #326891; font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">The report</a>, issued on Monday by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, a group of scientists convened by the United Nations to guide world leaders, describes a world of worsening food shortages and wildfires, and a mass die-off of coral reefs as soon as 2040 — a period well within the lifetime of much of the global population.</div>
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The report “is quite a shock, and quite concerning,” said Bill Hare, an author of previous I.P.C.C. reports and a physicist with Climate Analytics, a nonprofit organization. “We were not aware of this just a few years ago.” The report was the first to be commissioned by world leaders under</div>
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<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #111111; font-family: source serif pro, serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px;">The scientists in Puerto Rico are suggesting that the impacts predicted for 2040 are already occurring, 20 years early, and that the impacts are occurring at 1-degree c, not 1.5 degrees. </span></span></span></div>
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And of course, it's not just insects that are in trouble</div>
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<i style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, garamond, baskerville, "times new roman", times, serif; font-size: 16px;">From 1970 to 2014, 60 percent of all animals with a backbone – fish, birds, amphibians, reptiles, and mammals – were wiped out by human activity, according to WWF’s Living Planet report, based on an ongoing survey of more than 4,000 species spread over 16,700 populations scattered across the globe. see <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-environment-wildlife/wildlife-populations-plunge-almost-60-percent-since-1970-wwf-idUSKCN12R00F" style="color: #1155cc;">here</a></i></div>
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Fish, in particular, are on the edge</div>
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The world’s ocean fish stocks are “on the verge of collapse,” according to a <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=http://www.irinnews.org/feature/2016/09/19/perfect-storm-climate-change-and-overfishing&source=gmail&ust=1542403825945000&usg=AFQjCNFhBsoVd6adPQ_ONiitROx-DN0PxQ" href="http://www.irinnews.org/feature/2016/09/19/perfect-storm-climate-change-and-overfishing" rel="noreferrer noreferrer" style="color: #5c9b4f; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">special report from <em>IRIN</em></a>. Already small fishers in poor countries are reeling, turning to ever-more destructive techniques and suffering from poor health and dwindling livelihoods.</div>
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The main trend of the world marine fisheries catches is not one of ‘stability’ as cautiously suggested early by FAO,” they write, “but one of decline.”</div>
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An estimated 70 percent of fish populations are fully used, overused, or in crisis as a result of overfishing and warmer waters. <b>If the world continues at its current rate of fishing, there will be no fish left by 2050</b>, according to a <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=http://science.sciencemag.org/content/314/5800/787.full&source=gmail&ust=1542403825945000&usg=AFQjCNFKn-GXCE_ssg3MRU1DDqFNVofg0Q" href="http://science.sciencemag.org/content/314/5800/787.full" rel="noreferrer noreferrer" style="color: #5c9b4f; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">study</a> cited in a <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.irinnews.org/film/our-fish-are-disappearing&source=gmail&ust=1542403825945000&usg=AFQjCNH_wwszoBFjJfe3Y1IF0uU3xGSLAg" href="https://www.irinnews.org/film/our-fish-are-disappearing" rel="noreferrer noreferrer" style="color: #5c9b4f; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">short video produced by <em>IRIN</em></a> for the special report. see<a href="https://www.newsecuritybeat.org/2017/02/ocean-fish-stocks-on-verge-collapse-irin-report/" style="color: #1155cc;"> here</a></div>
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It's kind of amazing is that although this information is available, most people's response is to completely ignore it. But some folks have a different response. As Joe Hill says " Don't mourn, organize" Here's what George Monbiot says.<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/nov/14/earth-death-spiral-radical-action-climate-breakdown" style="color: #1155cc;"> The Earth is in a Death Spiral, It will take Radical Action to Save Us</a></div>
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Those to whom we look for solutions trundle on as if nothing has changed. As if the accumulating evidence has no purchase on their minds. Decades of institutional failure ensures that only “unrealistic” proposals – the repurposing of economic life, with immediate effect – now have a realistic chance of stopping the planetary death spiral. And only those who stand outside the failed institutions can lead this effort.</div>
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Two tasks need to be performed simultaneously: throwing ourselves at the possibility of averting collapse, as <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46172661&source=gmail&ust=1542403825945000&usg=AFQjCNFv__v_peqJ6GiBGD7-WXsj2hsP2g" href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46172661" rel="noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer" style="background: transparent; border-bottom: 0.0625rem solid rgb(220, 220, 220); color: #e05e00; text-decoration-line: none !important;" target="_blank">Extinction Rebellion is doing</a>, slight though this possibility may appear; and preparing ourselves for the likely failure of these efforts, terrifying as this prospect is. Both tasks require a complete revision of our relationship with the living planet.</div>
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Because we cannot save ourselves without contesting oligarchic control, the fight for democracy and justice and the fight against environmental breakdown are <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.versobooks.com/books/2732-out-of-the-wreckage&source=gmail&ust=1542403825945000&usg=AFQjCNGFie5rBPhHtjDa-eqL3AnFey6PTg" href="https://www.versobooks.com/books/2732-out-of-the-wreckage" rel="noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer" style="background: transparent; border-bottom: 0.0625rem solid rgb(220, 220, 220); color: #e05e00; text-decoration-line: none !important;" target="_blank">one and the same</a>. Do not allow those who have caused this crisis to define the limits of political action. Do not allow those whose magical thinking got us into this mess to tell us what can and cannot be done.</div>
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But for many people, especially those folks on the front lines in California, mourning may be appropriate. <a href="https://grist.org/article/how-to-process-climate-grief-over-the-california-wildfires/" style="color: #1155cc;">Eric Holthaus at Grist offers this</a></div>
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An organization called Good Grief is trying to take on the challenge of helping to guide people like me who sometimes struggle with the loss and uncertainty that comes with being immersed in stories of climate disaster. They’ve developed <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=http://www.goodgriefgroup.org/steps-to-resiliency/&source=gmail&ust=1542403825945000&usg=AFQjCNE_J9K9rJKlET-_3dxeBax-HM4OUQ" href="http://www.goodgriefgroup.org/steps-to-resiliency/" rel="noreferrer" style="background-color: transparent; border-bottom: 0.0625rem solid rgb(7, 96, 126); color: #054a61; line-height: inherit; text-decoration-line: none !important;" target="_blank">a 10-step path to resiliency</a> that I think everyone could benefit from. (<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=http://www.goodgriefgroup.org/good-grief-network-10-step-program/&source=gmail&ust=1542403825945000&usg=AFQjCNF8El3gdh9bgT4oWqHD08FD6EXhLw" href="http://www.goodgriefgroup.org/good-grief-network-10-step-program/" rel="noreferrer" style="background-color: transparent; border-bottom: 0.0625rem solid rgb(7, 96, 126); color: #054a61; line-height: inherit; text-decoration-line: none !important;" target="_blank">Here’s some background on how they developed these steps</a>.)</div>
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Of course, for people close enough to experience the smoke of the fire, the grief is even more intense. There’s <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://twitter.com/CSScrisisline/status/1060985639749865472&source=gmail&ust=1542403825945000&usg=AFQjCNFXcZupfnX80XUI-3MRrrLOcbfjfQ" href="https://twitter.com/CSScrisisline/status/1060985639749865472" rel="noreferrer" style="background-color: transparent; border-bottom: 0.0625rem solid rgb(7, 96, 126); color: #054a61; line-height: inherit; text-decoration-line: none !important;" target="_blank">a national disaster distress hotline</a> that was set up specifically for times like this. <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/somatic-psychology/201004/the-trauma-arises-natural-disasters&source=gmail&ust=1542403825945000&usg=AFQjCNFYnNZfp5oOM-P6YBmOxOlDT3mm_Q" href="https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/somatic-psychology/201004/the-trauma-arises-natural-disasters" rel="noreferrer" style="background-color: transparent; border-bottom: 0.0625rem solid rgb(7, 96, 126); color: #054a61; line-height: inherit; text-decoration-line: none !important;" target="_blank">Studies show</a> that PTSD in survivors of previous disasters is often triggered during national crises. Survivor’s guilt is real.</div>
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Feeling like this is expected, at least some of the time. We feel this way because we love each other and we love the world. The changes we’re seeing are happening at a geological scale, faster than at any time in our planet’s history. We humans just aren’t built to process that kind of change.</div>
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It’s also worth remembering — every damn day — that a burned and broken world is not our destiny. We aren’t fated to any particular future, and the choices each of us make every day mean a lot, <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://grist.org/article/scientists-calmly-explain-that-civilization-is-at-stake-if-we-dont-act-now/&source=gmail&ust=1542403825945000&usg=AFQjCNF2vXqgSQ6e-GuOhnQFyjNWlkAyAA" href="https://grist.org/article/scientists-calmly-explain-that-civilization-is-at-stake-if-we-dont-act-now/" rel="noreferrer" style="background-color: transparent; border-bottom: 0.0625rem solid rgb(7, 96, 126); color: #054a61; line-height: inherit; text-decoration-line: none !important;" target="_blank">especially at this important moment in history</a>. The best thing that each of us can do going forward is to talk about how important climate change is with everyone you can. It’s only by building up a groundswell of support that our leaders will notice and take bold action in the time we have left.</div>
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There's another group of people, including those with young children, who are hoping -hoping that people will try to fix things, and to the extent its too late, will try to help each other. Here is a perceptive piece from environmental reporter Brian Merchant, from<a href="https://motherboard.vice.com/en_us/article/nepbnz/sons-of-the-pre-apocalypse-california-woolsey-wildfire" style="color: #1155cc;"> here</a></div>
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<span style="color: black; font-family: "Open Sans", "Trebuchet MS", TazuganeGothic, sans-serif;">My second son was born last week, right before two historic wildfires hit his new home state and burned whole cities to the ground. One burned about thirty miles west of the hospital he was born in, thickening the air with smoke, turning the sun deep red—we marked his first week anniversary by watching ash fall from the sky into our front yard. The other burned an hour and a half's drive north of where I grew up, of where my parents live, and reduced a town of thirty thousand people to embers so fast that the highway was left littered with abandoned and charred cars attempting escape, and dozens dead.</span> </div>
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My sons are going to live in cities on fire, in nations led by men who don't care, and they are going to have to learn to help tackle the problem, as we are. If I can in any way help them tap into that capacity that I felt last night, if they can help me, and if others can—and if that relation can help topple power in denial—then maybe we can sustain this pre-apocalypse, whether it takes another blue wave or nine, a political revolution, mass psilocybin hallucinations, or something else. If we can relate that goodness where applicable and confront power whenever possible, my sons may not have to live their adult lives in omnipresent fear of fires.</div>
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People are basically good, power corrupts but is not de-corruptible, and there is a lot of work to do.</div>
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At least, that's what gave me hope that week as I watched the world burn, literally and figuratively, but mostly literally, as my beautiful new ward eked out his being amongst the smoke.</div>
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Walterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18048738723369282833noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1190362411119958387.post-88030969610554581552018-10-25T19:17:00.001-07:002018-10-25T19:17:27.858-07:00Slow Down, you move too fast<br />
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<span style="font-family: Roboto, arial, sans-serif;">The train it won't stop going </span><br style="font-family: Roboto, arial, sans-serif;" /><span style="font-family: Roboto, arial, sans-serif;">But it could slow down</span> </div>
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I ride the mail train, baby</div>
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Can't buy a thrill</div>
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Bob Dylan</div>
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Good news:</div>
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The whole country is on grid parity for rooftop solar. See <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://sunmetrix.com/sunmetrix-grid-parity-map-for-residential-solar-energy-in-the-united-states/&source=gmail&ust=1540605832539000&usg=AFQjCNFyBe4jE9AvW7HvZcXDM9Ggzjlarw" href="https://sunmetrix.com/sunmetrix-grid-parity-map-for-residential-solar-energy-in-the-united-states/" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">here</a></div>
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Public Service Announcements</div>
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Joint Interim Committee on Carbon Reduction. Next meeting November 8</div>
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Greetings</div>
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Well the new IPCC report has got people stirred up. Perhaps it could be the spark that gets things moving. Let's hope so.</div>
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They set some ambitious timetables- reducing emissions by 45% by 2030, and by 100% by 2100. See <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.reuters.com/article/climatechange-ipcc/temperatures-to-rise-1-5-degrees-celsius-by-2030-2052-without-rapid-steps-u-n-report-idUSL8N1WM0JJ&source=gmail&ust=1540605832539000&usg=AFQjCNHt0q_6ackzS_wl3A2fT8BSvJliAg" href="https://www.reuters.com/article/climatechange-ipcc/temperatures-to-rise-1-5-degrees-celsius-by-2030-2052-without-rapid-steps-u-n-report-idUSL8N1WM0JJ" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">here</a></div>
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So, one way to look at the future is two phases. First, the time between now and when we hit between 1.5 -2 degrees above pre-industrial. This is the opportunity to stop the warming before the "positive " reinforcing system, the "tipping points", start to kick in. Second is what I call the 'autopilot date". At some point between 1.5 and 2, no one knows when, its a lock, the tipping points take over and the system goes on autopilot. Once that happens it will take centuries to millennia to stop.</div>
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From then on humans can no longer stop climate change by reducing emissions, they can merely slow it down.</div>
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The window on the first phase is getting smaller and smaller. The IPCC says we have about 10 years. Depending on how you measure it, we may have already passed 1.5. And we are beginning to see some of the self-reinforcing systems already.</div>
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Unfortunately these self-reinforcing system or "tipping points". are not well enough understood for the IPPC to include them in the models they use to project temperatures.</div>
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This creates some problems. see e.g <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://motherboard.vice.com/en_us/article/43e8yp/the-uns-devastating-climate-change-report-was-too-optimistic&source=gmail&ust=1540605832539000&usg=AFQjCNF4V9sG57sJ0X_5PRHUSIx9eeIqAA" href="https://motherboard.vice.com/en_us/article/43e8yp/the-uns-devastating-climate-change-report-was-too-optimistic" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank"> here</a></div>
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For instance, the <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://thebulletin.org/2018/10/climate-report-understates-threat/&source=gmail&ust=1540605832539000&usg=AFQjCNGAxRWIZUPaNJLWJbv8A3jIEWCJJQ" href="https://thebulletin.org/2018/10/climate-report-understates-threat/" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">following editorial by Mario Molina</a>. Nobel prizewinner in Chemistry appearing in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. Here is a snip:</div>
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These cascading feedbacks include self-reinforcing Arctic’s sea ice, which could disappear entirely in summer in the next 15 years. The ice serves as a shield, reflecting heat back into the atmosphere, but is increasingly being melted into water that absorbs heat instead. Losing the ice would tremendously increase the Arctic’s warming, which is already at least twice the global average rate. This, in turn, would accelerate the collapse of permafrost, releasing its ancient stores of methane, a super climate pollutant 30 times more potent in causing warming than carbon dioxide.</div>
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By largely ignoring such feedbacks, the IPCC report fails to adequately warn leaders about the cluster of six similar climate tipping points that could be crossed between today’s temperature and an increase to 1.5 degrees—<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=http://www.pnas.org/content/112/43/E5777&source=gmail&ust=1540605832539000&usg=AFQjCNEWzjkNFA5uis4kPvFAOWnVxreEWA" href="http://www.pnas.org/content/112/43/E5777" rel="noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer" style="background-color: transparent; color: #a71d1f; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit;" target="_blank">let alone nearly another dozen tipping points between 1.5 and 2 degrees</a>. These wildcards could very likely push the climate system beyond human ability to control. As the UN Secretary-General reminded world leaders last month, “We face an existential threat. Climate change is moving faster than we are. If we do not change course by 2020, we risk missing the point where we can avoid runaway climate change, with disastrous consequences….”</div>
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Here is a<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=http://www.metlink.org/climate/ipcc-updates-for-a-level-geography/tipping-points/&source=gmail&ust=1540605832539000&usg=AFQjCNERdDuBUA0movZ8KwSPs0EUVpku0g" href="http://www.metlink.org/climate/ipcc-updates-for-a-level-geography/tipping-points/" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank"> good site explaining tipping points</a></div>
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Unfortunately recent studies indicate that some of these tipping points are already being triggered. <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.space.com/41533-abrupt-permafrost-melting-carbon-climate-impact.html&source=gmail&ust=1540605832539000&usg=AFQjCNEOBgIJmWmowmGErwbKLucyIwczVQ" href="https://www.space.com/41533-abrupt-permafrost-melting-carbon-climate-impact.html" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank"> Abrupt permafrost melting. </a> , <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/09/180919115853.htm&source=gmail&ust=1540605832539000&usg=AFQjCNGfbboFLq5YQLToheEtyETUFJfZ7w" href="https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/09/180919115853.htm" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank"> Mineral weathering of permanfrost</a> <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/imageo/2018/03/08/permafrost-in-coldest-arctic-areas-will-melt-faster-than-thought/%23.W87hnGYZNmA&source=gmail&ust=1540605832539000&usg=AFQjCNHn7UI3IYQfZoUVycLmhbotNFapsQ" href="http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/imageo/2018/03/08/permafrost-in-coldest-arctic-areas-will-melt-faster-than-thought/#.W87hnGYZNmA" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank"> Permafrost will melt faster than thought</a></div>
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So the question is, how big and how fast are these feedbacks? The good news is that they are relatively slow, so in the short term ( out to 2100) they are not expected to be too large. The bad news is that in the long term they just keep growing. This is explained pretty well in the so called <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=http://www.pnas.org/content/115/33/8252&source=gmail&ust=1540605832539000&usg=AFQjCNHTijFolv9h32q5wC96EadzIKk9BQ" href="http://www.pnas.org/content/115/33/8252" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">" Hothouse Earth" paper.</a>. You probably should read it.</div>
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Here's what it looks like</div>
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Agricultural production and water supplies are especially vulnerable to changes in the hydroclimate, leading to hot/dry or cool/wet extremes. Societal declines, collapses, migrations/resettlements, reorganizations, and cultural changes were often associated with severe regional droughts and with the global megadrought at 4.2–3.9 thousand years before present, all occurring within the relative stability of the narrow global Holocene temperature range of approximately ±1 °C (<a class="gmail-xref-bibr" href="http://www.pnas.org/content/115/33/8252#ref-56" id="gmail-xref-ref-56-1" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #005a96; font-weight: bold; outline: 0px; text-decoration-line: none;">56</a>).</div>
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<a class="gmail-in-nw" href="http://www.pnas.org/lookup/suppl/doi:10.1073/pnas.1810141115/-/DCSupplemental" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #005a96; outline: 0px; text-decoration-line: none;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;">SI Appendix</em>, Table S4</a> summarizes biomes and regional biosphere–physical climate subsystems critical for human wellbeing and the resultant risks if the Earth System follows a Hothouse Earth pathway. While most of these biomes or regional systems may be retained in a Stabilized Earth pathway, most or all of them would likely be substantially changed or degraded in a Hothouse Earth pathway, with serious challenges for the viability of human societies.</div>
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For example, agricultural systems are particularly vulnerable, because they are spatially organized around the relatively stable Holocene patterns of terrestrial primary productivity, which depend on a well-established and predictable spatial distribution of temperature and precipitation in relation to the location of fertile soils as well as on a particular atmospheric CO<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 11.25px; line-height: 0; vertical-align: baseline;">2</span> concentration. </div>
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The authors of that paper explain what would needed to avoid the hothouse earth, and take path to a "new normal"as follows</div>
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The Stabilized Earth trajectory requires deliberate manage-</div>
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ment of humanity’s relationship with the rest of the Earth System if</div>
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the world is to avoid crossing a planetary threshold. We suggest</div>
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that a deep transformation based on a fundamental reorienation of human values, equity, behavior, institutions, economies, and</div>
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technologies is required. Even so, the pathway toward Stabilized</div>
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turning of the Earth System, suggesting that resilience-building</div>
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strategies are given much higher priority than at present in decision</div>
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So, it seems we are between a rock and a hard place. If the recommendations made above were followed we might be able to avoid the tipping points. And avoid the hothouse earth. But we would still have whatever warming we have caused. That would be our " new normal ". This would last for a long time as the CO2 slowly washed out of the atmosphere. We would still have made significant changes to the earth's climate.</div>
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Even now, with less than 1.5 degrees, the changes are significant.. <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://e360.yale.edu/features/redrawing-the-map-how-the-worlds-climate-zones-are-shifting&source=gmail&ust=1540605832539000&usg=AFQjCNEx-nOBqWrb7-0xkmOclOoXCuScIw" href="https://e360.yale.edu/features/redrawing-the-map-how-the-worlds-climate-zones-are-shifting" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">The tropical climate zones are shifting </a>. <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://phys.org/news/2018-10-rapid-effects-climate-ecosystems.html&source=gmail&ust=1540605832539000&usg=AFQjCNEVTJIqhmLFjBFdBVhvusPWpzj-BA" href="https://phys.org/news/2018-10-rapid-effects-climate-ecosystems.html" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">The climate is changing so fast that <span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">it creates a moving baseline for experiments</span></a></div>
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so, here we are.</div>
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<br />This is all pretty hard to take. Eric Holthaus wrote a good piece in Grist called: <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://grist.org/article/climate-grief-un-ipcc-report/&source=gmail&ust=1540605832539000&usg=AFQjCNHsTmsVAENHbRQuO6CKlBr7aUsbKQ" href="https://grist.org/article/climate-grief-un-ipcc-report/" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank"> If you are suffering from climate grief, you are not alone.</a> You may want to read it. Here is part of it.</div>
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Last week’s U.N. climate report gave <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://grist.org/article/scientists-calmly-explain-that-civilization-is-at-stake-if-we-dont-act-now/&source=gmail&ust=1540605832539000&usg=AFQjCNEoof6mxsxc9OhD19Bkhbx3Qlic0Q" href="https://grist.org/article/scientists-calmly-explain-that-civilization-is-at-stake-if-we-dont-act-now/" style="background-color: transparent; border-bottom: 0.0625rem solid rgb(7, 96, 126); color: #054a61; line-height: inherit; text-decoration-line: none !important;" target="_blank">a terrifyingly clear picture</a> of a world on the brink of locking in catastrophe. It told us what was needed and the horrors that awaited if we failed to mobilize. As a scientific report, it was dazzling. But it didn’t tell us how to process, cope, and adapt our lives to the grief of that overwhelming knowledge.</div>
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In 1969, after interviewing hundreds of terminally ill patients, psychiatrist Elisabeth Kübler-Ross wrote <em style="line-height: inherit;">On Death and Dying</em>, a milestone text on how humans process permanent loss. Kübler-Ross’ description of those reactions — denial, anger, bargaining, depression, acceptance — are now famous, but they were never meant to be an orderly progression of “stages.” There is no “correct,” linear way to grieve. Our reactions are complicated because people are complicated.</div>
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There’s no one-size-fits-all approach for taking in something like the looming existential threat of climate change. I’ve been listening to a lot of ’90s country music. One of my colleagues has substantially upped her sleep, while one of our Grist editors “stress bakes.” What we feel is what we feel, and it determines our reality — and importantly, our response, to the news.</div>
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<span style="color: #09222b; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, "Droid Serif", Cambria, "Times New Roman", Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">What we need now is a major mobilization on climate change. That would require, in the words of the IPCC, “rapid and far-reaching transitions” in “all aspects of society.” We’re taking much more than just solar panels and reusable shopping bags here. After decades of delay, the scale of changes that are necessary will force us to rethink everything. To put in the changes necessary, we have to be able to connect our emotions to our actions. We have to process our grief. We have to somehow move through it, and we have to do all that together.</span> </blockquote>
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Walterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18048738723369282833noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1190362411119958387.post-31440203309940340772018-10-07T13:16:00.002-07:002018-10-07T13:16:45.646-07:00Growing Pains<br />
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Eat a lot of peaches</div>
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-John Prine</div>
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Eat a Peach</div>
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- Allman Brothers</div>
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PSA: Watch <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=http://salemprogressivefilms.net/film/anotes-ark/&source=gmail&ust=1539029294826000&usg=AFQjCNGXDMfEGDJCtkOm6FMcVdqawS9Abw" href="http://salemprogressivefilms.net/film/anotes-ark/" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">Anote's Ark</a>, a film, and hear Professor Dickerson on climate refugees, Oct 16</div>
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News: <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.resilience.org/stories/2018-10-05/with-the-world-on-the-line-scientists-outline-the-paths-to-survival/&source=gmail&ust=1539029294826000&usg=AFQjCNGK-8mCgO_IKDSzEexGa_n9UWPTeQ" href="https://www.resilience.org/stories/2018-10-05/with-the-world-on-the-line-scientists-outline-the-paths-to-survival/" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank"> New IPCC report due </a>Monday</div>
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Quick preview </div>
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #141414; font-family: montserrat, sans-serif; font-size: 16px;">"The report will be released on October 8. From </span><a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=http://www.climatechangenews.com/2018/06/27/new-leaked-draft-of-un-1-5c-climate-report-in-full-and-annotated/&source=gmail&ust=1539029294826000&usg=AFQjCNFCKxTIAlmwHewrbOa1KnI2f6ygkg" href="http://www.climatechangenews.com/2018/06/27/new-leaked-draft-of-un-1-5c-climate-report-in-full-and-annotated/" rel="noreferrer noreferrer" style="background-color: white; color: #009bc5; font-family: montserrat, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">leaked drafts</a><span style="background-color: white; color: #141414; font-family: montserrat, sans-serif; font-size: 16px;">, we know </span><a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://phys.org/news/2018-10-mission-impossible-climate-key.html&source=gmail&ust=1539029294826000&usg=AFQjCNGTIY06cpXBoC29YY1eqmjiF1mCqQ" href="https://phys.org/news/2018-10-mission-impossible-climate-key.html" rel="noreferrer noreferrer" style="background-color: white; color: #009bc5; font-family: montserrat, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">the basics of scientists’ findings</a><span style="background-color: white; color: #141414; font-family: montserrat, sans-serif; font-size: 16px;">: World greenhouse gas emissions must peak by 2020 — just 15 months from now. The scientists also show the difference in impacts between 1.5 and 2 degrees would not be </span><a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-45678338&source=gmail&ust=1539029294826000&usg=AFQjCNFitRFJjSUtnBYruIDCt3yjxKICoA" href="https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-45678338" rel="noreferrer noreferrer" style="background-color: white; color: #009bc5; font-family: montserrat, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">minor</a><span style="background-color: white; color: #141414; font-family: montserrat, sans-serif; font-size: 16px;"> — it could be make-or-break for the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, for example, which would flood every coastal city on Earth should it collapse.</span></div>
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<span style="color: #141414; font-family: montserrat, sans-serif; font-size: 16px;">Or</span><a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://phys.org/news/2018-10-climate-chaos-unprecedented.html%23jCp&source=gmail&ust=1539029294826000&usg=AFQjCNFraIk2gC7bGLrrLmlmMOp246xV1g" href="https://phys.org/news/2018-10-climate-chaos-unprecedented.html#jCp" style="color: #1155cc; font-family: montserrat, sans-serif; font-size: 16px;" target="_blank"> here</a></div>
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"<span style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px;">After only one degree of warming, the world has seen deadly storms engorged by rising seas and a crescendo of heatwaves, drought, flooding and wild fires made more intense by climate change.</span></div>
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Without a radical course change, we are headed for an unliveable 3C or 4C hike. And yet, humanity has avoided action for so long that any pathway to a climate-safe world involves wrenching economic and social change "unprecedented in terms of scale," the report said.</div>
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Greetings</div>
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I recently read a <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.resilience.org/stories/2018-09-28/while-economic-growth-continues-well-never-kick-our-fossil-fuels-habit/&source=gmail&ust=1539029294826000&usg=AFQjCNFga0AKy0VldcSziudRNQ4SmmnJPw" href="https://www.resilience.org/stories/2018-09-28/while-economic-growth-continues-well-never-kick-our-fossil-fuels-habit/" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">nice piece by George Monbiot, </a>noting that the current strategy of replacing fossil fuels with renewable energy isnt really working. </div>
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Despite the growth of wind and solar, fossil fuel use just isn't dropping. So far renewables are not a substitute, but a way of having more energy.</div>
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This, of course, has been our history. Each time we have added a new energy resource, we have asks continued to use the old one, merely increasing the total amount of energy used.</div>
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Monbiot notes that a growing economy makes this task of substitution more difficult if not impossible. </div>
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See also this article <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/09/12/why-growth-cant-be-green/&source=gmail&ust=1539029294827000&usg=AFQjCNGqdL7jRSA0tVwnyUS5YxxCIf-Qcg" href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/09/12/why-growth-cant-be-green/" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">Why Growth Can't Be Green.</a> summarizing recent studies.</div>
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We are essentially trying to go on a healthy diet, we are willing to eat more vegetables but we can't seem to give up the cake! And as long as we won't give up the cake, we continue to spew CO2.</div>
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Hopefully, this state of affairs won't last much longer. And hopefully, the transition will occur "in time". </div>
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In our case, it appears that<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/entry/runaway-climate-change-2030-report_us_5b8ecba3e4b0162f4727a09f&source=gmail&ust=1539029294827000&usg=AFQjCNE5NhwmWD2rD55DjeiHS3h5rwJ39Q" href="https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/entry/runaway-climate-change-2030-report_us_5b8ecba3e4b0162f4727a09f" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank"> "in time" means pretty soon.</a> Otherwise we may experience a "hothouse Earth", a 4-5 degree increase in temperature, and 20 meter rise in sea levels.</div>
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<span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 1.125rem;">If this grim scenario is to be avoided, emissions would have to peak within two to three years and then decline by 6-7 percent a year, Rockström said. F</span><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 1.125rem;">ar from peaking, though, energy-related greenhouse gas emissions </span><a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.reuters.com/article/us-energy-carbon-iea/global-carbon-emissions-hit-record-high-in-2017-idUSKBN1GY0RB&source=gmail&ust=1539029294827000&usg=AFQjCNHJvOKBDA989Ay6TdDTVvo0tQXWHQ" href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-energy-carbon-iea/global-carbon-emissions-hit-record-high-in-2017-idUSKBN1GY0RB" style="border: 0px; color: black; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 1.125rem; list-style: none; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;" target="_blank">hit a new record high</a><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 1.125rem;"> last year, as cuts in the U.K., the U.S. and, Japan were offset by continued carbon dioxide pollution, particularly in China.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 1.125rem;">See also</span><a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.realclearenergy.org/2017/08/03/report_no_country_on_track_to_meet_paris_goals_284530.html&source=gmail&ust=1539029294827000&usg=AFQjCNH47JrUuHNXJbPz7X0EpT4IQkdscQ" href="https://www.realclearenergy.org/2017/08/03/report_no_country_on_track_to_meet_paris_goals_284530.html" style="color: #1155cc; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 1.125rem;" target="_blank"> No country on track to meet Paris goals</a><span style="border: 0px; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; list-style: none; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;"></span></div>
<div style="background-color: white; border: 0px; color: #444444; font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: 1.75rem; list-style: none; margin-bottom: 10px; padding: 0.45em 0px;">
<span style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 1.125rem;">And this:<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=http://www.mining.com/web/eus-biggest-coal-mining-nation-plans-output-hike-cut-imports/&source=gmail&ust=1539029294827000&usg=AFQjCNFnXFONGvdJWrcnU9tnqalyS0AWTw" href="http://www.mining.com/web/eus-biggest-coal-mining-nation-plans-output-hike-cut-imports/" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank"> Biggest coal mining country in Europe plans output hike</a></span></div>
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The question of the timing of an energy transition was recently portrayed in an unusual way. From the perspective of space. see <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2018/05/how-do-aliens-solve-climate-change/561479/&source=gmail&ust=1539029294827000&usg=AFQjCNHIzMpHA0o6kjJt7HEcyQcE5w24pQ" href="https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2018/05/how-do-aliens-solve-climate-change/561479/" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">How Aliens Solve their Climate Change Problem</a> . It is generally believed that life has evolved on many planets and on some of them a species has been able to harness the available energy and create an industrial civilization, as we have. The fact that we haven't heard from any of them, create the so-called<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fermi_paradox&source=gmail&ust=1539029294827000&usg=AFQjCNGousysAC--e9IqZjKpqhiVqoZtmA" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fermi_paradox" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank"> Fermi paradox</a>. Where are they? Frank suggests that perhaps alien civilizations have run into the same problem we have - the need to move from one energy source to a less polluting one before the pollution destroys the civilization. He creates a very simple modern to explore the importance of the timing of the transition. He then ran the model thousands of times with different transition times.</div>
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<span style="font-family: "lyon text", georgia, serif; font-size: 19.8px;">"So, what did the model tell us? We saw three distinct kinds of civilizational histories. The first—and, alarmingly, most common—was what we called “the die-off.” As the civilization used energy, its numbers grew rapidly, but the use of the resource also pushed the planet away from the conditions the civilization grew up with. As the evolution of the civilization and planet continued, the population skyrocketed, blowing past the planet’s limits. The population, in other words, overshot the planet’s carrying capacity. Then came a big reduction in the civilization’s population until both the planet and the civilization reached a steady state. After that, the population and the planet stopped changing. A sustainable planetary civilization was achieved but at a high cost. In many of the models, we saw as much as 70 percent of the population perish before a steady state was reached. In reality, it’s not clear that a complex technological civilization like ours could survive such a catastrophe.</span></blockquote>
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The second kind of trajectory held the good news. We called it the “soft landing.” The population grew and the planet changed but together they made a smooth transition to a new, balanced equilibrium. The civilization had changed the planet but without triggering a massive die-off.</div>
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The final class of trajectory was the most worrisome: full-blown collapse. As in the die-off histories, the population blew up. But these planets just couldn’t handle the avalanche of the civilization’s impact. The host worlds were too sensitive to change, like a houseplant that withers when it’s moved. Conditions on these planets deteriorated so fast the civilization’s population nose-dived all the way to extinction.</div>
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"You might think switching from the high-impact energy source to the low-impact source would make things better. But for some trajectories, it didn’t matter. If the civilization used only the high-impact resource, the population reached a peak and then quickly dropped to zero. But if we allowed the civilization to switch to the low-impact energy resource, the collapse still happened in certain cases, even if it was delayed. The population would start to fall, then happily stabilize. But then, finally and suddenly, it rushed downward to extinction.</div>
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The collapses that occurred even when the civilization did the smart thing demonstrated an essential point about the modeling process. Because the equations capture some of the real world’s complexity, they can surprise you. In some of the “delayed collapse” histories, the planet’s own internal machinery was the culprit. Push a planet too hard, and it won’t return to where it began. We know this can happen, even without a civilization present, because we see it on Venus. That world should be a kind of sister to our own. But long ago Venus’s greenhouse effect slipped into a runaway mode, driving its surface temperatures to a hellish 800 degrees Fahrenheit. Our models were showing, in generic terms, how a civilization could push a planet down the hill into a different kind of runaway through its own activity.</div>
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<span style="font-size: 19.8px;">See study </span><a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=http://here.&source=gmail&ust=1539029294827000&usg=AFQjCNFLquzARN6vgGlzFmGr3NGY52l89Q" href="http://here./" style="color: #1155cc; font-size: 19.8px;" target="_blank">here.</a><span style="font-size: 19.8px;"> </span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 19.8px;">Why? Tipping points, unfortunately. Civilizations may stop emissions, but if feed-backs can swamp the effect. And feed-backs on Earth are not that far off.</span></div>
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See<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/2018/unexpected-future-boost-of-methane-possible-from-arctic-permafrost&source=gmail&ust=1539029294827000&usg=AFQjCNE8kIaiswZTgj2vyKg2itJX-SM2Ww" href="https://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/2018/unexpected-future-boost-of-methane-possible-from-arctic-permafrost" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank"> Abrupt permafrost thawing </a></div>
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<span style="font-family: "helvetica neue", helvetica, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 1em;">"Using a combination of computer models and field measurements, Walter Anthony and an international team of U.S. and German researchers found that abrupt thawing more than doubles previous estimates of permafrost-derived greenhouse warming. They found that the abrupt thaw process increases the release of ancient carbon stored in the soil 125 to 190 percent compared to gradual thawing alone. What's more, they found that in future warming scenarios defined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, abrupt thawing was as important under the moderate reduction of emissions scenario as it was under the extreme business-as-usual scenario. This means that even in the scenario where humans reduced their global carbon emissions, large methane releases from abrupt thawing are still likely to occur.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 1em;">The impact on the climate may mean an influx of permafrost-derived methane into the atmosphere in the mid-21st century, which is not currently accounted for in climate projections.</span></div>
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The Arctic landscape stores one of the largest natural reservoirs of organic carbon in the world in its frozen soils. But once thawed, soil microbes in the permafrost can turn that carbon into the greenhouse gases carbon dioxide and methane, which then enter into the atmosphere and contribute to climate warming.</div>
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"The mechanism of abrupt thaw and thermokarst lake formation matters a lot for the permafrost-carbon feedback this century," said first author Katey Walter Anthony at the University of Alaska, Fairbanks, who led the project that was part of NASA’s Arctic-Boreal Vulnerability Experiment (ABoVE), a ten-year program to understand climate change effects on the Arctic. "We don’t have to wait 200 or 300 years to get these large releases of permafrost carbon. Within my lifetime, my children’s lifetime, it should be ramping up. It’s already happening but it’s not happening at a really fast rate right now, but within a few decades, it should peak."</div>
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<span style="font-family: lyon text, georgia, serif;"><span style="font-size: 19.8px;">In our situation, it is not clear exactly when would be "too late". We need a lot more information. we generally get that from the IPPC. A recent report by David Sprat,<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=http://www.climatecodered.org/2018/08/take-unprecedented-action-or-bear.html&source=gmail&ust=1539029294827000&usg=AFQjCNHOaNNa9NRt_N4OaVJlZEZehUbfpA" href="http://www.climatecodered.org/2018/08/take-unprecedented-action-or-bear.html" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank"> What Lies Beneath</a> calls into question the accuracy of the information provided by the IPCC, because its reports are overly optimistic. Risks are understated, and it contains optimistic assumptions. It's a very through report, so I will merely provide the summary and invite you to read it. </span></span></div>
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<i style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 13.2px;">What Lies Beneath</i><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 13.2px;"> analyses why:</span></div>
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<li style="margin: 0px 0px 0.25em; padding: 0px;">Human-induced climate change is an existential risk to human civilization: an adverse outcome that will either annihilate intelligent life or permanently and drastically curtail its potential unless dramatic action is taken.</li>
<li style="margin: 0px 0px 0.25em; padding: 0px;">The bulk of climate research has tended to underplay these risks and exhibited a preference for conservative projections and scholarly reticence.</li>
<li style="margin: 0px 0px 0.25em; padding: 0px;">IPCC reports tend toward reticence and caution, erring on the side of “least drama”, and downplaying the more extreme and more damaging outcomes, and are now becoming dangerously misleading with the acceleration of climate impacts globally.</li>
<li style="margin: 0px 0px 0.25em; padding: 0px;">Why this is a particular concern with potential climatic “tipping points”, the passing of critical thresholds which result in step changes in the climate system. Under-reporting on these issues is contributing to the “failure of imagination” in our understanding of, and response to, climate change.</li>
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What's next? Well <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://theconversation.com/hothouse-earth-our-planet-has-been-here-before-heres-what-it-looked-like-101413&source=gmail&ust=1539029294827000&usg=AFQjCNFJgjCGvjWJGAmLOnRciFJwGnpXEQ" href="https://theconversation.com/hothouse-earth-our-planet-has-been-here-before-heres-what-it-looked-like-101413" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">"hothouse Earth"</a> might be the next stop. It looks something like this:</div>
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"The last time the Earth saw these kinds of carbon dioxide levels was 3m years ago, well before <em style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Homo sapiens</em> appeared, in what is called the “<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0031018211001404&source=gmail&ust=1539029294827000&usg=AFQjCNHz0YKlKwOcooXRBYOABf4D0S1mLQ" href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0031018211001404" style="color: #557585; outline: none; white-space: pre-wrap;" target="_blank">Mid Piacenzian Warm Period</a>” of the Pliocene Epoch. This was warm – but not yet truly hot. The Earth still had a lot of polar ice, especially over Antarctica, but ice on Greenland and West Antarctica was much less extensive, and sea levels were some ten metres or more higher. Global mean temperature was perhaps a couple of degrees warmer than at present, with more warming around the poles than at the equator. If carbon dioxide levels now hold steady, this is the kind of Earth we could be heading towards.</div>
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This period in Earth’s history was also Eden-like, with a diversity of life on land and at sea – but getting to that state may be traumatic for crowded humanity as the sea level keeps rising. A true Hothouse Earth emerged when carbon dioxide levels reached something like 800ppm – about double those of today. This was the world of the dinosaurs, 100m years ago. There was little or no ice on Earth and the polar regions had forests and dinosaurs which were adapted to <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/the-strange-lives-of-polar-dinosaurs-180347471/&source=gmail&ust=1539029294827000&usg=AFQjCNGUqB_y5HDUbkOK-QifUZuw0kpRfg" href="https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/the-strange-lives-of-polar-dinosaurs-180347471/" style="color: #557585; outline: none; white-space: pre-wrap;" target="_blank">living half the year in darkness</a>.</div>
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The biosphere thrived, though equatorial regions tested the thermal limits of life. Much of the low-lying land had been claimed by the sea, which was now a worldwide warm bath in which animals steered a course to avoid the <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-018-0152-2&source=gmail&ust=1539029294827000&usg=AFQjCNH0s9qkP7B7ey2nPWXl7JMB0wVV8Q" href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-018-0152-2" style="color: #557585; outline: none; white-space: pre-wrap;" target="_blank">large, oxygen-depleted regions</a>, a result of the sluggish ocean currents typical of an ice-free world. Even this type of Earth is not so unpleasant, though – once you’re there.</div>
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But it’s the transition that’s tricky. Some combination of unrestrained carbon emissions and the natural feedbacks of greenhouse gas released from melting permafrost and forest die-back might set us on such a trajectory in little more than a century. Humanity, in such a world, might crowd on to the remaining land and mourn its drowned cities.</div>
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Walterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18048738723369282833noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1190362411119958387.post-6081962627675189832018-08-10T10:40:00.002-07:002018-08-10T10:40:09.007-07:00Time Has Come Today<br />
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I thought she was saying good luck </div>
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She was saying goodbye</div>
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- Richard Thompson</div>
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The carpet now</div>
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Greetings</div>
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In light of a new editorial policy, we will now be offering Public Service Announcements, as well as at least one piece of good news! You spoke, and we listened!</div>
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First, PSAs</div>
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I want to invite everyone to Salem 350's Run For the Climate on August 25. See<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=https://350salemor.org/run-for-the-climate/&source=gmail&ust=1534007051601000&usg=AFQjCNGKMkppstv6OK2ztvL0LbBlaZs-iA" href="https://350salemor.org/run-for-the-climate/" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank"> here.</a></div>
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And remind you that the Joint Interim Committee on Carbon Reduction is holding hearings in an effort to craft a bill for next session. The next meeting is on August 28th. You can watch the most recent hearing<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=http://oregon.granicus.com/MediaPlayer.php?view_id%3D6%26clip_id%3D24971&source=gmail&ust=1534007051601000&usg=AFQjCNEsXBlpKJwecB8TouNVGIwB8xhSmw" href="http://oregon.granicus.com/MediaPlayer.php?view_id=6&clip_id=24971" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank"> here</a>. </div>
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And here's the good news. </div>
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<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=https://www.resilience.org/stories/2018-08-07/portlands-efforts-to-crack-down-on-fossil-fuels-just-won-big/&source=gmail&ust=1534007051601000&usg=AFQjCNElBkmTbBMAaAKri3Pumy1qDBUw2g" href="https://www.resilience.org/stories/2018-08-07/portlands-efforts-to-crack-down-on-fossil-fuels-just-won-big/" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank"><span style="background-color: white; color: #141414; font-family: "montserrat" , sans-serif; font-size: 16px;">Oregon’s Supreme Court has handed a major victory to Portland, upholding the city’s right to greatly restrict fossil fuel infrastructure. </span> </a></div>
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<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=https://katu.com/news/local/salem-may-join-eugene-and-corvallis-in-banning-single-use-plastic-bags&source=gmail&ust=1534007051601000&usg=AFQjCNF9M-o56aG1C4w1tCTn1FGHZc8k3Q" href="https://katu.com/news/local/salem-may-join-eugene-and-corvallis-in-banning-single-use-plastic-bags" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">Salem City Council to take up single use plastic bag ban</a> ( on August 25)</div>
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<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=https://energytransition.org/2018/06/americas-coal-plants-closing-despite-trump/&source=gmail&ust=1534007051601000&usg=AFQjCNEDW999hAUnP9DygujItnNkN9GHkg" href="https://energytransition.org/2018/06/americas-coal-plants-closing-despite-trump/" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">Coal plants closing despite Trump</a></div>
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<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=https://www.forbes.com/sites/mikescott/2018/05/28/electric-car-sales-set-to-accelerate-as-costs-fall-and-production-scales-up/%23448133904049&source=gmail&ust=1534007051601000&usg=AFQjCNEmzKyKFAouOKzW54f6xF2P-BbuYw" href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/mikescott/2018/05/28/electric-car-sales-set-to-accelerate-as-costs-fall-and-production-scales-up/#448133904049" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">EV sales accelerate</a></div>
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And my personal favorite: </div>
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<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-latin-america-44375507/meet-the-nuns-helping-save-a-sacred-species-from-extinction&source=gmail&ust=1534007051601000&usg=AFQjCNFy6_8jy1HEaYtChRPeBRCLhXvkrQ" href="https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-latin-america-44375507/meet-the-nuns-helping-save-a-sacred-species-from-extinction" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">Nuns help save threatened salamander</a></div>
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------------------------------<wbr></wbr>-------</div>
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OK you can stop reading now. </div>
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Happy<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=https://www.footprintnetwork.org/our-work/earth-overshoot-day/&source=gmail&ust=1534007051601000&usg=AFQjCNH0sDB_t5dCJG8QL2JlIIyg0LOPlQ" href="https://www.footprintnetwork.org/our-work/earth-overshoot-day/" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank"> overshoot day.</a> </div>
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So, how are you adapting to our new climate? Enjoying the heat? Are you ready for the future?</div>
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How far into the future? Most of us have a pretty steep discount curve, so the farther something is in the future, the less we care. Which is why<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/15/bankrate-65-percent-of-Americans-save-little-or-nothing.html&source=gmail&ust=1534007051601000&usg=AFQjCNFe9dDXzp1ze6rNmm4AfuC4E3dX9g" href="https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/15/bankrate-65-percent-of-Americans-save-little-or-nothing.html" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank"> people don't save for retirement</a> or buy insurance </div>
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That may be a problem (!)</div>
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Let's start with now. Here's a <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=https://grist.org/article/the-world-is-hot-on-fire-and-flooding-climate-change-is-here/&source=gmail&ust=1534007051601000&usg=AFQjCNGzzuavZphgODxwrQ_eIUQCuKlz-Q" href="https://grist.org/article/the-world-is-hot-on-fire-and-flooding-climate-change-is-here/" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">summary of the current situation from meteorologist Eric Holthaus</a></div>
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In recent weeks, high-temperature records have been set <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=https://www.independent.co.uk/environment/heatwave-temperature-records-broken-europe-north-america-eurasia-middle-east-latest-a8432226.html&source=gmail&ust=1534007051602000&usg=AFQjCNHAZDzUB4f4_DKwzLwkn1I1Uaav8w" href="https://www.independent.co.uk/environment/heatwave-temperature-records-broken-europe-north-america-eurasia-middle-east-latest-a8432226.html" rel="noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer" style="background-color: transparent; border-bottom: 0.0625rem solid rgb(7, 96, 126); color: #054a61; line-height: inherit; text-decoration-line: none !important;" target="_blank">on nearly every continent</a>. On Monday, Japan had <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=https://t.co/k1Jcv1BqeW&source=gmail&ust=1534007051602000&usg=AFQjCNHUr6pZzVwgoLRSmDfQqg8tv_AMhw" href="https://t.co/k1Jcv1BqeW" rel="noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer" style="background-color: transparent; border-bottom: 0.0625rem solid rgb(7, 96, 126); color: #054a61; line-height: inherit; text-decoration-line: none !important;" target="_blank">its hottest temperature in recorded history</a> — 106 degrees Fahrenheit — just days after <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=https://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/inpictures/japan-struggles-wake-worst-flooding-decades-180709141021781.html&source=gmail&ust=1534007051602000&usg=AFQjCNHpSEG0_bsU4KJuXjNLcR4ct9hH0g" href="https://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/inpictures/japan-struggles-wake-worst-flooding-decades-180709141021781.html" rel="noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer" style="background-color: transparent; border-bottom: 0.0625rem solid rgb(7, 96, 126); color: #054a61; line-height: inherit; text-decoration-line: none !important;" target="_blank">one of the worst flooding disasters the country has ever seen.</a></div>
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Algeria has recorded the <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2018/07/06/africa-may-have-witnessed-its-all-time-hottest-temperature-thursday-124-degrees-in-algeria/?utm_term%3D.27500e122da6&source=gmail&ust=1534007051602000&usg=AFQjCNHvbb0xmszN5Wvf_-kLF31bnCdXoA" href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2018/07/06/africa-may-have-witnessed-its-all-time-hottest-temperature-thursday-124-degrees-in-algeria/?utm_term=.27500e122da6" rel="noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer" style="background-color: transparent; border-bottom: 0.0625rem solid rgb(7, 96, 126); color: #054a61; line-height: inherit; text-decoration-line: none !important;" target="_blank">highest reliably measured temperature in Africa</a>, 124 degrees Fahrenheit. In late June, the temperature never dropped below 108 degrees Fahrenheit in Oman — <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=https://www.cnn.com/travel/article/hottest-low-temperature-quriyat-oman-wxc/index.html&source=gmail&ust=1534007051602000&usg=AFQjCNHenUMhNwvzE_JsSMnnagaebx02Ow" href="https://www.cnn.com/travel/article/hottest-low-temperature-quriyat-oman-wxc/index.html" rel="noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer" style="background-color: transparent; border-bottom: 0.0625rem solid rgb(7, 96, 126); color: #054a61; line-height: inherit; text-decoration-line: none !important;" target="_blank">the highest overnight low temperature anywhere in the world</a>.</div>
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Even in normally temperate places, the air has been sweltering: Temperatures approaching 100 degrees Fahrenheit hit parts of Canada, <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/quebec-heat-wave-ending-1.4736509&source=gmail&ust=1534007051602000&usg=AFQjCNH7E1FJMy_HW5tFX9TaldIPnHgyAQ" href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/quebec-heat-wave-ending-1.4736509" rel="noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer" style="background-color: transparent; border-bottom: 0.0625rem solid rgb(7, 96, 126); color: #054a61; line-height: inherit; text-decoration-line: none !important;" target="_blank">overwhelming hospitals in Montreal</a> — where another heat wave is imminent this week.</div>
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See also<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/amp/2018/07/climate-change-wildfires-heatwave-media-old-news-end-of-the-world.html&source=gmail&ust=1534007051602000&usg=AFQjCNG2i7V08hA9XBynBbcXSqYmguKlag" href="http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/amp/2018/07/climate-change-wildfires-heatwave-media-old-news-end-of-the-world.html" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank"> here</a></div>
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How about next year? Well, 2019 doesn't look like a big improvement, as it may well be an El Nino year. See<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml%2520%25202019&source=gmail&ust=1534007051602000&usg=AFQjCNH2GGFWLwqAcp_Qm9z4f-nNyXEMfA" href="http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml%20%202019" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank"> here. </a> What does that mean? see <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=https://grist.org/article/a-building-el-nino-in-2018-signals-more-extreme-weather-on-tap-for-2019/&source=gmail&ust=1534007051602000&usg=AFQjCNFgJXChKfeY7TwzJpdkRHEIZG0DCQ" href="https://grist.org/article/a-building-el-nino-in-2018-signals-more-extreme-weather-on-tap-for-2019/" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">here</a></div>
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"...i<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=https://twitter.com/Peters_Glen/status/961876321004638208&source=gmail&ust=1534007051602000&usg=AFQjCNH7Qywkfq0fUgAxi-i9Qd8319ltlA" href="https://twitter.com/Peters_Glen/status/961876321004638208" rel="noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer" style="background-color: white; border-bottom: 0.0625rem solid rgb(4, 59, 78); color: #054a61; font-family: merriweather, georgia, "droid serif", cambria, "times new roman", times, serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: inherit; outline-width: 0px; text-decoration-line: none !important;" target="_blank">nitial estimates</a><span style="background-color: white; color: #09222b; font-family: "merriweather" , "georgia" , "droid serif" , "cambria" , "times new roman" , "times" , serif; font-size: 16px;"> show that, if the building El Niño actually arrives, 2019 would stand a good chance at knocking off 2016 as the warmest year on record. With a strong El Niño, next year might even tiptoe across the 1.5 degree-Celsius mark — the first major milestone that locks in at least some of global warming’s worst impacts</span></blockquote>
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That sounds bad, even if we hit 1.5 next year, it won't last through the next la Nina. It won't be a permanent situation for at least a decade. It looks like it'll be somewhere between 2030 (<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=https://www.resilience.org/stories/2018-04-05/1-5c-of-warming-is-closer-than-we-imagine-just-a-decade-away/&source=gmail&ust=1534007051602000&usg=AFQjCNHiP61f05luTToBVaupI0gq_SOQrA" href="https://www.resilience.org/stories/2018-04-05/1-5c-of-warming-is-closer-than-we-imagine-just-a-decade-away/" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">various studies</a>) and 2040. (<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-climate-change-looks-like-in-2018/&source=gmail&ust=1534007051602000&usg=AFQjCNHvg2q-NhIIzuqjT9nmSxk1ZECCgg" href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-climate-change-looks-like-in-2018/" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">IPCC draft report</a>).</div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;"> But, it's important to remember that once we hit it , absent some miraculous technology, there's no going back. As <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=http://planet3.org/2017/12/05/utopias-in-the-anthropocene/&source=gmail&ust=1534007051602000&usg=AFQjCNFNBhTGfi1OKXNqd5fImW0NFK2Usw" href="http://planet3.org/2017/12/05/utopias-in-the-anthropocene/" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank"> Clive Hamilton, author of Climate Code Red, explains.</a></span></div>
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<b>It is not widely understood that carbon dioxide persists in the atmosphere for centuries, so our future will depend on the total amount we humans put into it over the next several decades</b>. This is the paramount fact that separates climate change from all other environmental problems.</div>
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Hamilton also offers a concise assessment of what is reasonably likely. (Note that he does not factor in "negative emissions", which <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-02184-x&source=gmail&ust=1534007051602000&usg=AFQjCNEZa6LuRJbAn3yz8GLAc9uSzMcowA" href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-02184-x" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">recent editorial in Nature described as " magical thinking"</a> See also<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=https://www.carbonbrief.org/negative-emissions-have-limited-potential-to-help-meet-climate-goals&source=gmail&ust=1534007051602000&usg=AFQjCNGZ89eGeq1NwzrhSYvjsYRQDSJUBA" href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/negative-emissions-have-limited-potential-to-help-meet-climate-goals" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank"> here</a></div>
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<span style="font-family: "droid serif" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 16px;">On top of past emissions, the total amount will depend on two critical factors—the year in which global emissions reach their peak, and how quickly they fall thereafter. Let’s make some optimistic forecasts. Firstly, assume that global emissions peak in 2020, so that after that year any increase in emissions from poor countries must be more than offset by declines in rich countries. Realistically, after persistent failure to reach an international agreement, global emissions are likely to keep growing until 2030 or beyond.</span></div>
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Second, assume that global emissions fall by 3% each year after the 2020 peak until they reach a floor, the minimum necessary to supply the world’s population with food. Of course, we cannot expect poor countries to cut their emissions as fast as rich ones, so a global decline of 3% per annum translates into a 6-7% per annum decline in energy and industrial emissions in rich countries.</div>
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Can this be done? It would certainly be unprecedented. After the collapse of the Soviet</div>
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Union, Russia’s total emissions in the 1990s fell by 5.2% per annum, which is close to the rate of decline needed. However, the sharp decline in emissions was associated with a halving of that nation’s GDP, with widespread social misery.</div>
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Nevertheless, if we think positive and assume global emissions do peak in 2020 and decline by 3% annually thereafter, with rich country energy and industrial emissions falling by 67%, where would that leave us? The shocking fact is that this optimistic scenario would see concentrations of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere reach 650 ppm (the pre-industrial level was 280 ppm and it now stands at 392 ppm). That level translates into warming of 4°C above the pre-industrial global average. As oceans warm more slowly, a global average of 4°C means warming of 5-6°C on land, and even higher closer to the poles. Warming on this scale and at the expected rate would radically change the conditions of life on earth. The world would be hotter than at any time for 15 million years, yet this is now regarded by leading climate scientists as the most likely future before the end of the century.</div>
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In case this isn't clear, he gives you this handy chart.</div>
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Warming approaching 4°C is uncharted territory. As is apparent from Figure 3, the climate</div>
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system would cross several tipping points and trigger various feedback effects that would</div>
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render the climate system largely beyond human control. The idea that when things get</div>
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too hot we can then turn the thermostat down is not how the climate system works. On the</div>
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road to warming of 4ºC, the Earth system would cross several thresholds that would amplify</div>
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warming and make the climate system unstable. The planet has warmed by 0.8ºC above</div>
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the pre-industrial average already and inertia in the system means that 2.4ºC of warming is</div>
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already locked in, with heating reaching 4ºC perhaps in the 2070s.</div>
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Will emissions peak in 2020? Will the industrialized west reduce its emissions by 6-7%? No one knows. But so far it doesn't look promising. see<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=https://grist.org/article/new-evidence-shows-were-still-way-too-addicted-to-fossil-fuels/&source=gmail&ust=1534007051602000&usg=AFQjCNGzdy0Bb-ianPqBRTQXTu20T73FIA" href="https://grist.org/article/new-evidence-shows-were-still-way-too-addicted-to-fossil-fuels/" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank"> here</a></div>
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #09222b; font-family: "merriweather" , "georgia" , "droid serif" , "cambria" , "times new roman" , "times" , serif; font-size: 16px;">Despite clean energy’s meteoric growth, a </span><a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=https://webstore.iea.org/world-energy-investment&source=gmail&ust=1534007051602000&usg=AFQjCNHxgz8TPx025bPu_YsHFs4QiSz09A" href="https://webstore.iea.org/world-energy-investment" rel="noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">new global assessment</a><span style="background-color: white; color: #09222b; font-family: "merriweather" , "georgia" , "droid serif" , "cambria" , "times new roman" , "times" , serif; font-size: 16px;"> from the International Energy Association shows that fossil fuel projects are growing even faster. The money going to fossil fuel projects accounted for 59 percent of all energy investments last year. Sorry to say but clean energy’s share is shrinking.</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #09222b; font-family: "merriweather" , "georgia" , "droid serif" , "cambria" , "times new roman" , "times" , serif; font-size: 16px;">So what happened to all that good news about renewables? Well, it’s real. Investment in solar photovoltaics reached record levels in 2017, while the price of solar power was falling fast, which means those investments are getting more bang for the buck. Investment in offshore wind also hit a record last year, but investment in land-based wind turbines, hydropower, and nuclear fell. The world put nearly <span class="m_1430600459299030655m_6538373957708475389m_-1552654917397037325m_4440284325074111453m_-3914698670731102530m_-7020949667872882700m_-1285173975574449532m_-6282692918258292807money">$300</span> billion into renewables, which is a lot, enough to dominate the electric power sector:</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #09222b; font-family: "merriweather" , "georgia" , "droid serif" , "cambria" , "times new roman" , "times" , serif; font-size: 16px;">But that’s not as much as we spent on in oil and gas drilling and exploration (also known as “upstream” investment) — <span class="m_1430600459299030655m_6538373957708475389m_-1552654917397037325m_4440284325074111453m_-3914698670731102530m_-7020949667872882700m_-1285173975574449532m_-6282692918258292807money">$450</span> billion. And that doesn’t count all the money that went into building new pipelines, refineries, and gas stations.</span></div>
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But, let's say we get our shit together and adapt very "aggressive" programs <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=https://www.carbonbrief.org/world-can-limit-global-warming-to-onepointfive-without-beccs&source=gmail&ust=1534007051602000&usg=AFQjCNF4qwEILtSzKVjr0RqUFOzt-Lo4Sg" href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/world-can-limit-global-warming-to-onepointfive-without-beccs" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank"> Here is one from Carbon Brief</a></div>
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<span style="font-family: sans-serif;">Th</span><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "pt serif" , serif; font-size: 20px;">e study looks at a range of “aggressive” alternative scenarios to meet the 1.5C goal, reducing reliance on BECCS. Deployment of each mitigation option is designed to be “ambitious but not unrealistic”, the paper says. These alternatives are:</span></div>
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<li><span style="font-weight: 700;">Renewable electrification: </span>All energy end-use sectors are rapidly electrified, including heat. The <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=https://www.carbonbrief.org/in-depth-whole-system-costs-renewables&source=gmail&ust=1534007051602000&usg=AFQjCNG9PQS2j6Dn7wYTCoU52hXZM1I5hg" href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/in-depth-whole-system-costs-renewables" rel="noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer" style="background-color: transparent; color: #2f8fce;" target="_blank">technical constraints</a> to integrating variable renewables on the grid are overcome. Some fossil-fuelled power stations retire early and, by 2030, all new cars are electric.</li>
<li><span style="font-weight: 700;">High efficiency</span>: The best available technologies are quickly adopted for all energy and material uses, including cement and steel. From 2025 onwards, only highly efficient new cars and airplanes are sold and only the most efficient home appliances allowed.</li>
<li><span style="font-weight: 700;">Agricultural intensification</span>: Optimistic assumptions for crop yield improvements are combined with 80% worldwide adoption of the most efficient livestock systems, including improved feed digestibility and “genetic improvements”.</li>
<li><span style="font-weight: 700;">Low non-CO2</span>: Non-CO2 greenhouse gases are reduced using the best-available technologies and further technological progress. For example, by 2050, <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=http://www.carbonbrief.org/why-measuring-fugitive-methane-emissions-from-shale-gas-production-matters&source=gmail&ust=1534007051602000&usg=AFQjCNHWoYTEgdgVSnvGhD-UKAeuwC0QmA" href="http://www.carbonbrief.org/why-measuring-fugitive-methane-emissions-from-shale-gas-production-matters" rel="noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer" style="background-color: transparent; color: #2f8fce;" target="_blank">fugitive emissions</a> of methane are cut by 100% in the oil-and-gas sector and by 90% for coal mining. Methane emissions from livestock are cut significantly and, by 2050, 80% of meat and eggs are replaced by cultured protein, including <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=https://edition.cnn.com/2018/03/01/health/clean-in-vitro-meat-food/index.html&source=gmail&ust=1534007051602000&usg=AFQjCNHjkOAb7FIGhsdwF8M57YA8CsZY2w" href="https://edition.cnn.com/2018/03/01/health/clean-in-vitro-meat-food/index.html" rel="noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer" style="background-color: transparent; color: #2f8fce;" target="_blank">lab-grown meat</a>.</li>
<li><span style="font-weight: 700;">Population</span>: Improved access to education accelerates the trend towards reduced fertility, so that global population rises from 7 billion people today to 8.4 billion in 2050, before falling to 6.9 billion in 2100. This is broadly in line with the UN’s <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=https://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/Publications/Files/WPP2017_Volume-I_Comprehensive-Tables.pdf&source=gmail&ust=1534007051602000&usg=AFQjCNF_FezY4cWVc98nUMyFYhdYeKancA" href="https://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/Publications/Files/WPP2017_Volume-I_Comprehensive-Tables.pdf" rel="noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer" style="background-color: transparent; color: #2f8fce;" target="_blank">lowest scenario</a> for population, whereas the high end of UN projections reaches 13.2 billion people in 2100.</li>
<li><span style="font-weight: 700;">Lifestyle change</span>: The majority of the world population adopts sustainable lifestyles, including, by 2050, 100% adoption of healthy diets with lower levels of meat consumption. There is less private car use and more walking or cycling, while air travel is reduced.</li>
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Of course if we lived in a saner world, these are the types of proposals that would be adopted quickly and perhaps . And we need to continue to try to convince the powers that be to do so as soon as possible. We may not succeed in keeping warming below 1.5, but we can slow down the process.</div>
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But we are already in the midst of climate change, and we don't really know how to deal with it. What are the implications? We know what it means in terms of weather - storms, floods, fires etc. Lots more disasters and cleanups of disasters, and lots more <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=https://www.businessinsider.com/new-york-city-flooding-manhattan-coastal-barriers-2018-4&source=gmail&ust=1534007051602000&usg=AFQjCNGXSYQRFYdGhYcjPpP6qmcI0Aufyg" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/new-york-city-flooding-manhattan-coastal-barriers-2018-4" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">building of walls around coastal cities</a> , or moving entire towns away from the coast. like in <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=https://thinkprogress.org/newtok-alaska-gets-relocation-funding-35b4434242a6/&source=gmail&ust=1534007051602000&usg=AFQjCNGdbVrQdwHIR8faDU8xzXAYBsiI3A" href="https://thinkprogress.org/newtok-alaska-gets-relocation-funding-35b4434242a6/" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">Alaska</a> or <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=https://www.citylab.com/environment/2018/01/how-to-save-a-town-from-rising-waters/547646/&source=gmail&ust=1534007051602000&usg=AFQjCNHo3OPAB8L09FL3v3CxeQm6oLSGfg" href="https://www.citylab.com/environment/2018/01/how-to-save-a-town-from-rising-waters/547646/" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">Louisiana</a>.. And the continued displacement of people from the areas that are hit hardest first. see <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2018/03/19/climate-change-could-force-over-140-million-to-migrate-within-countries-by-2050-world-bank-report&source=gmail&ust=1534007051602000&usg=AFQjCNEScSQPIgay9WWCSihIMh27Lgj1ag" href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2018/03/19/climate-change-could-force-over-140-million-to-migrate-within-countries-by-2050-world-bank-report" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">here </a> <span style="background-color: white; font-size: x-small;"> (140 million by 2050 )</span></div>
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Hamilton suggests that we will be devoting more and more resources to these activities, in an attempt to keep things as they are. What does it mean for the way we view the world and the future? We may need to re-examine some of our basic assumptions. For instance, many of us have an unstated assumption ( which was developed in an era of abundant energy, and a stable climate ). that things will always get better and better. There will less war, less poverty, more fairness. This has been assumed to be the "arc of history" see<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/35696171-enlightenment-now&source=gmail&ust=1534007051602000&usg=AFQjCNH-AwePAIpXimVD30Mx_5TTdqAALA" href="https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/35696171-enlightenment-now" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank"> here</a> , and assumed to be inevitable. Hamilton calls it "the law of progress".</div>
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "droid serif" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 16px;">[Thanks to our belief in the law of progress], "... all champions of social transformation—democrats, </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "droid serif" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 16px;">Marx<wbr></wbr>ists and liberators of all kinds—could believe that history was on their side. That is what </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "droid serif" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 16px;">it meant to be ‘progressive’. Philosophers like Hegel provided the dialectic motor for the iron l</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "droid serif" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 16px;">ogic of progress, but in the end, the proof was there for all to see in the relentless advance of </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "droid serif" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 16px;">gross domestic product.</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "droid serif" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 16px;">But what happens to the law of progress when the law fails or proves to have been true </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "droid serif" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 16px;">only for an epoch that has now passed? The law can live on only at the price of denying </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "droid serif" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 16px;">the passing, of the age of progress and pretending that the Anthropocene is something for </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "droid serif" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 16px;">scientists alone to worry about. Although the births of utopias are precipitated by times of </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "droid serif" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 16px;">great turmoil, all presuppose stability and the absence of conflict; yet there will be no stability </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "droid serif" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 16px;">in the Anthropocene, especially if the expectations of abrupt change (unprecedented rates of </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "droid serif" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 16px;">warming, tipping points, feedback effects and so future? to pass. Instead ore-examinedsome</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "droid serif" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 16px;">re growth we will be pouring resources into trying to climate-proof our lives—our cities, </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "droid serif" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 16px;">our coasts, our infrastructure, our houses and our food supplies. The dominant task will be to</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "droid serif" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 16px;">protect the gains of the past and manage the effects of climatic insecurity so that they do not </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "droid serif" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 16px;">spill into conflict.</span></div>
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Of course, these concerns pale, once one looks at the potential "tipping points" <span style="background-color: white; font-size: x-small;"> A<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2018/07/31/1810141115&source=gmail&ust=1534007051603000&usg=AFQjCNEcYraOXmq_UNcxqkb4yz_-7G_sIg" href="http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2018/07/31/1810141115" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank"> n</a><a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2018/07/31/1810141115&source=gmail&ust=1534007051603000&usg=AFQjCNEcYraOXmq_UNcxqkb4yz_-7G_sIg" href="http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2018/07/31/1810141115" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">ew study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences </a> addresses this issue in some detail, and comes to the chilling conclusion that we may loose control of the climate very soon. In which case earth will seek a new equilibrium state, what they call "Hothouse Earth" See also<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=https://phys.org/news/2018-08-earth-hothouse-state.html&source=gmail&ust=1534007051603000&usg=AFQjCNExpQdI_HlGI36h0AOxDaRV5__hVw" href="https://phys.org/news/2018-08-earth-hothouse-state.html" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank"> here</a> </span></div>
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Our analysis suggests that the Earth System may be approaching a planetary threshold that could lock in a continuing rapid pathway toward much hotter conditions—Hothouse Earth. This pathway would be propelled by strong, intrinsic, biogeophysical feedbacks difficult to influence by human actions, a pathway that could not be reversed, steered, or substantially slowed.</div>
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Where such a threshold might be is uncertain, but it could be only decades ahead at a temperature rise of ∼2.0 °C above preindustrial, and thus, it could be within the range of the Paris Accord temperature targets.</div>
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "open sans" , "helveticaneue" , "helvetica neue" , "helvetica" , "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 15px;">The present dominant socioeconomic system, however, is based on high-carbon economic growth and exploitative resource use (</span><a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2018/07/31/1810141115%23ref-9&source=gmail&ust=1534007051603000&usg=AFQjCNFq7_rLSL9gYdtQnPDvgzRDkjbljw" href="http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2018/07/31/1810141115#ref-9" rel="noreferrer noreferrer" style="background-color: white; color: #005a96; font-family: "open sans", helveticaneue, "helvetica neue", helvetica, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; font-weight: bold; outline: 0px !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">9</a><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "open sans" , "helveticaneue" , "helvetica neue" , "helvetica" , "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 15px;">). Attempts to modify this system have met with some success locally but little success globally in reducing greenhouse gas emissions or building more effective stewardship of the biosphere. Incremental linear changes to the present socioeconomic system are not enough to stabilize the Earth System. <b>Widespread, rapid, and fundamental transformations will likely be required to reduce the risk of crossing the threshold and locking in the Hothouse Earth pathway;</b> these include changes in behavior, technology and innovation, governance, and values (</span><a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2018/07/31/1810141115%23ref-48&source=gmail&ust=1534007051603000&usg=AFQjCNGmpvt1xpqZqz9qB7NW5POexZp_NQ" href="http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2018/07/31/1810141115#ref-48" rel="noreferrer noreferrer" style="background-color: white; color: #005a96; font-family: "open sans", helveticaneue, "helvetica neue", helvetica, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; font-weight: bold; outline: 0px !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">48</a><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "open sans" , "helveticaneue" , "helvetica neue" , "helvetica" , "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 15px;">, </span><a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2018/07/31/1810141115%23ref-62&source=gmail&ust=1534007051603000&usg=AFQjCNGoAU4m59Ex69ERFefyrb8GnWcx2A" href="http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2018/07/31/1810141115#ref-62" rel="noreferrer noreferrer" style="background-color: white; color: #005a96; font-family: "open sans", helveticaneue, "helvetica neue", helvetica, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; font-weight: bold; outline: 0px !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">62</a><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "open sans" , "helveticaneue" , "helvetica neue" , "helvetica" , "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 15px;">, </span><a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2018/07/31/1810141115%23ref-63&source=gmail&ust=1534007051603000&usg=AFQjCNHnAuetX4X9ynEJAG4I3TVLhPWT3g" href="http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2018/07/31/1810141115#ref-63" rel="noreferrer noreferrer" style="background-color: white; color: #005a96; font-family: "open sans", helveticaneue, "helvetica neue", helvetica, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; font-weight: bold; outline: 0px !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">63</a><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "open sans" , "helveticaneue" , "helvetica neue" , "helvetica" , "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 15px;">).</span></blockquote>
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Reflecting on this paper, <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=https://www.resilience.org/stories/2018-08-09/terrified-by-hothouse-earth-dont-despair-do-something/&source=gmail&ust=1534007051603000&usg=AFQjCNHzVqFhaix0R_GZwVD8EEvXyrL8Nw" href="https://www.resilience.org/stories/2018-08-09/terrified-by-hothouse-earth-dont-despair-do-something/" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">Eric Holthaus sees a call to action.</a></div>
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #141414; font-family: "montserrat" , sans-serif; font-size: 16px;">The next decade will almost surely decide our fate. That should empower us. It means every act has meaning; we have the chance to save the world as we know it every single day. In this scenario we now find ourselves in, radical, disruptive climate action is the only course of action that makes sense.</span></div>
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However the authors of the paper seem to rule out "saving the world as we know it". They say that even if action is taken, we are entering a new world. </div>
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Even if a Stabilized Earth pathway is achieved, humanity will face a turbulent road of rapid and profound changes and uncertainties on route to it—politically, socially, and environmentally—that challenge the resilience of human societies (<a class="m_1430600459299030655gmail-xref-bibr" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2018/07/31/1810141115%23ref-79&source=gmail&ust=1534007051603000&usg=AFQjCNEFIM9PJpmtBl5c3niN3Zcn7fTtzw" href="http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2018/07/31/1810141115#ref-79" id="m_1430600459299030655gmail-xref-ref-79-1" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #005a96; font-weight: bold; outline: 0px; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">79</a><a class="m_1430600459299030655gmail-xref-down-link" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2018/07/31/1810141115%23ref-80&source=gmail&ust=1534007051603000&usg=AFQjCNGfjH83-oY-4V2XGeGE0id-1gvDSQ" href="http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2018/07/31/1810141115#ref-80" id="m_1430600459299030655gmail-xref-ref-80-1" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #005a96; font-weight: bold; outline: 0px; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">⇓</a><a class="m_1430600459299030655gmail-xref-down-link" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2018/07/31/1810141115%23ref-81&source=gmail&ust=1534007051603000&usg=AFQjCNGcoOHJH3sdsY--8MDUUhPLsUVgpQ" href="http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2018/07/31/1810141115#ref-81" id="m_1430600459299030655gmail-xref-ref-81-1" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #005a96; font-weight: bold; outline: 0px; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">⇓</a>–<a class="m_1430600459299030655gmail-xref-bibr" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2018/07/31/1810141115%23ref-82&source=gmail&ust=1534007051603000&usg=AFQjCNFQwFzmGpIjOg_uM9nA6Wh5tI1Wfg" href="http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2018/07/31/1810141115#ref-82" id="m_1430600459299030655gmail-xref-ref-82-1" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #005a96; font-weight: bold; outline: 0px; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">82</a>). Stabilized Earth will likely be warmer than any other time over the last 800,000 years at least (<a class="m_1430600459299030655gmail-xref-bibr" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2018/07/31/1810141115%23ref-83&source=gmail&ust=1534007051603000&usg=AFQjCNHPrh0f1t55VQacj6pI8GmE5q-Jeg" href="http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2018/07/31/1810141115#ref-83" id="m_1430600459299030655gmail-xref-ref-83-1" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #005a96; font-weight: bold; outline: 0px; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">83</a>) (that is, warmer than at any other time in which fully modern humans have existed).</div>
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In addition, the Stabilized Earth trajectory will almost surely be characterized by the activation of some tipping elements (<a class="m_1430600459299030655gmail-xref-sec" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2018/07/31/1810141115%23sec-4&source=gmail&ust=1534007051603000&usg=AFQjCNGeyVKiZ5ZMBgIKVZuQV55cixhZ6Q" href="http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2018/07/31/1810141115#sec-4" id="m_1430600459299030655gmail-xref-sec-4-3" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #005a96; font-weight: bold; outline: 0px; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;">Tipping Cascades</em></a> and <a class="m_1430600459299030655gmail-xref-fig" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2018/07/31/1810141115%23F3&source=gmail&ust=1534007051603000&usg=AFQjCNEbw8VSqSkdMMAqKI4gMP6hayjJeg" href="http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2018/07/31/1810141115#F3" id="m_1430600459299030655gmail-xref-fig-3-3" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #005a96; font-weight: bold; outline: 0px; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">Fig. 3</a>) and by nonlinear dynamics and abrupt shifts at the level of critical biomes that support humanity (<a class="m_1430600459299030655gmail-in-nw" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=http://www.pnas.org/lookup/suppl/doi:10.1073/pnas.1810141115/-/DCSupplemental&source=gmail&ust=1534007051603000&usg=AFQjCNGHXIWGGTWj3-sTcWioS5qgsw_rfA" href="http://www.pnas.org/lookup/suppl/doi:10.1073/pnas.1810141115/-/DCSupplemental" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #005a96; outline: 0px; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;">SI Appendix</em>, Table S4</a>). Current rates of change of important features of the Earth System already match or exceed those of abrupt geophysical events in the past (<a class="m_1430600459299030655gmail-in-nw" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=http://www.pnas.org/lookup/suppl/doi:10.1073/pnas.1810141115/-/DCSupplemental&source=gmail&ust=1534007051603000&usg=AFQjCNGHXIWGGTWj3-sTcWioS5qgsw_rfA" href="http://www.pnas.org/lookup/suppl/doi:10.1073/pnas.1810141115/-/DCSupplemental" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #005a96; outline: 0px; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;">SI Appendix</em></a>).<b> With these trends likely to continue for the next several decades at least, the contemporary way of guiding development founded on theories, tools, and beliefs of gradual or incremental change, with a focus on economy efficiency, will likely not be adequate to cope with this trajectory.</b> Thus, in addition to adaptation, increasing resilience will become a key strategy for navigating the future.</div>
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "open sans" , "helveticaneue" , "helvetica neue" , "helvetica" , "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 15px;">We suggest that a deep transformation based on a fundamental reorientation of human values, equity, behavior, institutions, economies, and technologies is required. Even so, the pathway toward Stabilized Earth will involve considerable changes to the structure and functioning of the Earth System, suggesting that resilience-building strategies be given much higher priority than at present in decision making. Some signs are emerging that societies are initiating some of the necessary transformations. However, these transformations are still in initial stages, and the social/political tipping points that definitively move the current trajectory away from Hothouse Earth have not yet been crossed, while the door to the Stabilized Earth pathway may be rapidly closing.</span></div>
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Surprising, the worse its gets the less you hear about it.</div>
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Here's an interesting article by David Wallace Wells., called <a href="https://mail.google.com/mail/u/1/In%20other%20words,%20it%20has%20been%20a%20month%20of%20historic,%20even%20unprecedented,%20climate%20horrors.%20But%20you%20may%20not%20have%20noticed,%20if%20you%20are%20anything%20but%20the%20most%20discriminating%20consumer%20of%20news.%20The%20major%20networks%20aired%20127%20segments%20on%20the%20unprecedented%20July%20heat%20wave,%20Media%20Matters%20usefully%20tabulated,%20and%20only%20one%20so%20much%20as%20mentioned%20climate%20change.%20The%20New%20York%20Times%20has%20done%20admirable%20work%20on%20global%20warming%20over%20the%20last%20year,%20launching%20a%20new%20climate%20desk%20and%20devoting%20tremendous%20resources%20to%20high-production-value%20special%20climate%20%E2%80%9Cfeatures.%E2%80%9D%20But%20even%20their%20original%20story%20on%20the%20wildfires%20in%20Greece%20made%20no%20mention%20of%20climate%20change%20%E2%80%94%20after%20some%20criticism%20on%20Twitter,%20they%20added%20a%20reference.%20%20Over%20the%20last%20few%20days,%20there%20has%20been%20a%20flurry%20of%20chatter%20among%20climate%20writers%20and%20climate%20scientists,%20and%20the%20climate-curious%20who%20follow%20them,%20about%20this%20failure.%20In%20perhaps%20the%20most%20widely%20parsed%20and%20debated%20Twitter%20exchange,%20MSNBC%E2%80%99s%20Chris%20Hayes%20%E2%80%94%20whose%20show,%20All%20In,%20has%20distinguished%20itself%20with%20the%20seriousness%20of%20its%20climate%20coverage%20%E2%80%94%20described%20the%20dilemma%20facing%20every%20well-intentioned%20person%20in%20his%20spot:%20the%20transformation%20of%20the%20planet%20and%20the%20degradation%20may%20be%20the%20biggest%20and%20most%20important%20story%20of%20our%20time,%20indeed%20of%20all%20time,%20but%20on%20television,%20at%20least,%20it%20has%20nevertheless%20proven,%20so%20far,%20a%20%E2%80%9Cpalpable%20ratings%20killer.%E2%80%9D%20All%20of%20which%20raises%20a%20very%20dispiriting%20possibility,%20considering%20the%20scale%20of%20the%20climate%20crisis:%20Has%20the%20end%20of%20the%20world%20as%20we%20know%20it%20become,%20already,%20old%20news?" style="color: #1155cc;"> How Did The End of The World Become Old News?</a></div>
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He In other words, it has been a month of historic, even unprecedented, climate horrors. But you may not have noticed, if you are anything but the most discriminating consumer of news. The major networks aired 127 segments on the unprecedented July heat wave, Media Matters usefully <a href="https://www.mediamatters.org/blog/2018/07/12/Major-broadcast-TV-networks-mentioned-climate-change-just-once-during-two-weeks-of-heat-wa/220651" style="box-sizing: inherit; color: black; font-feature-settings: "lnum"; font-variant-numeric: lining-nums; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; text-rendering: optimizeLegibility;">tabulated</a>, and only one so much as mentioned climate change. The New York <em style="box-sizing: inherit; font-feature-settings: "lnum"; font-variant-numeric: lining-nums; text-rendering: optimizeLegibility;">Times</em> has done admirable work on global warming over the last year, launching a new climate desk and devoting tremendous resources to high-production-value special climate “features.” But even their original story on the wildfires in Greece made no mention of climate change — after some criticism on Twitter, they added a reference.</div>
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Over the last few days, there has been a flurry of chatter among climate writers and climate scientists, and the climate-curious who follow them, about this failure. In perhaps <a href="https://twitter.com/chrislhayes?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1021759145425489920&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fgrist.org%2Farticle%2Fis-climate-change-a-ratings-killer-or-is-something-wrong-with-for-profit-media%2F" style="box-sizing: inherit; color: black; font-feature-settings: "lnum"; font-variant-numeric: lining-nums; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; text-rendering: optimizeLegibility;">the most widely parsed and debated Twitter exchange</a>, MSNBC’s Chris Hayes — whose show, <em style="box-sizing: inherit; font-feature-settings: "lnum"; font-variant-numeric: lining-nums; text-rendering: optimizeLegibility;">All In</em>, has distinguished itself with the seriousness of its climate coverage — described the dilemma facing every well-intentioned person in his spot: the transformation of the planet and the degradation may be the biggest and most important story of our time, indeed of all time, but on television, at least, it has nevertheless proven, so far, a “palpable ratings killer.” All of which raises a very dispiriting possibility, considering the scale of the climate crisis: Has the end of the world as we know it become, already, old news?</div>
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And if we don't hear about, we don't think about it. Ugo Bardi did an interesting piece tracking google searches for climate change <a href="https://cassandralegacy.blogspot.com/2018/07/why-in-few-years-nobody-will-be-worried.html" style="color: #1155cc;">Why, In a Few Years,Nobody Will Be Talking About Climate Change Anymore</a>. He notes that one effective means of controlling the public dialogue, used by the Nazis, was "Deception By Omission". The government doesn't talk about it, the media doesn't report. People move on to the next interesting topic. Iran? Manafort? Immigration? Rambo V? He compares the interest in cliamte change witrh that of drone assassinations, an issue which has now gone out of vogue (although the strikes continue)</div>
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<span style="background-color: white; font-family: "roboto"; font-size: 15.4px;"> First of all, here are some results from Google Trends.</span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; font-family: "roboto"; font-size: 15.4px;">Here, we don't see the same evident decline in interest we saw for the case of "drone kills," but I think it is reasonable to say that there has been a detectable decline during the past year or so (note that the 2017 spike corresponds to Trump's announcement that the US would withdraw from the Paris Climate Treaty). This interpretation may be confirmed by the most recent Gallup poll. Again, the declining trend is still uncertain, but it seems to be there. In March 2018, Americans were less convinced that climate change is a threat than they were in 2017.</span></div>
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Some of you may be interested in a piece by<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=https://jembendell.wordpress.com&source=gmail&ust=1534007051603000&usg=AFQjCNFeBhxwfIaV4OjbnpfbUohAMlQW5w" href="https://jembendell.wordpress.com/" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank"> Jim Bendell, a professor at the Institute for Sustainability Leadership at the University of Cumbria</a>. Based on climate data noted above, he argues that we are likely to see a very different world in the not too distant future. He agrees that our current way of addressing problems will not be effective in dealing with this situation. He argues that what will be needed is what he calls "Deep Adaptation" You can read more about it<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=http://www.lifeworth.com/deepadaptation.pdf&source=gmail&ust=1534007051603000&usg=AFQjCNFmi4xqF0pNv4SpXxqcMgF0NbOQQg" href="http://www.lifeworth.com/deepadaptation.pdf" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank"> here.</a>.. Here is a piece of his conclusion.<br />
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It is a truism that we do not know what the future will be. But we can see trends. We do not know if the power of human ingenuity will help sufficiently to change the environmental trajectory we are on. Unfortunately, the recent years of innovation, investment and patenting indicate how human ingenuity has increasingly been channelled into consumerism and financial engineering. We might pray for time. But the evidence before us suggests that we are set for disruptive and uncontrollable levels of climate change, bringing starvation, destruction, migration, disease and war.</div>
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We do not know for certain how disruptive the impacts of climate change will be or where will be most affected, especially as economic and social systems will respond in complex ways. But the evidence is mounting that the impacts will be catastrophic to our livelihoods and the societies that we live within. Our norms of behaviour, that we call our “civilisation,” may also degrade. When we contemplate this possibility, it can seem abstract. The words I ended the previous paragraph with may seem, subconsciously at least, to be describing a situation to feel sorry about as we witness scenes on TV or online. But when I say starvation, destruction, migration, disease and war, I mean in your own life. With the power down, soon you wouldn’t have water coming out of your tap. You will depend on your neighbours for food and some warmth. You will become malnourished. You won’t know whether to stay or go. You will fear being violently killed before starving to death.</div>
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These descriptions may seem overly dramatic. Some readers might consider them an unacademic form of writing. Which would be an interesting comment on why we even write at all. I chose the words above as an attempt to cut through the sense that this topic is purely theoretical. As we are considering here a situation where the publishers of this journal would no longer exist, the electricity to read its outputs won’t exist, and a profession to educate won’t exist, I think it time we break some of the conventions of this format. However, some of us may take pride in upholding the norms of the current society, even amidst collapse. Even though some of us might believe in the importance of maintaining norms of behaviour, as indicators of shared values, others will consider that the probability of collapse means that effort at reforming our current system is no longer the pragmatic choice. My conclusion to this situation has been that we need to expand our work on “sustainability” to consider how communities, countries and humanity can adapt to the coming troubles. I have dubbed this the “Deep Adaptation Agenda,” to contrast it with the limited scope of current climate adaptation activities. My experience is that a lot of people are resistant to the conclusions I have just shared. So before explaining the implications, let us consider some of the emotional and psychological responses to the information I have just summarised.</div>
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This is something that is hard to get our minds around. In fact, we actively avoid trying to deal with this possibility. It's actually very similar to our attitude towards our own mortality. Which is fine, most of the time. Who wants to think about such things?</div>
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Perhaps this is a serious illness. The scientists are saying the Holocene is dying and it's not going to get better. We will need to adapt to that. The adaptation we are going to go beyond any politicsocial, to the psychological or perhaps spiritual</div>
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Walterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18048738723369282833noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1190362411119958387.post-23889701852845543752018-06-27T08:56:00.000-07:002018-06-27T08:56:06.316-07:00Didn't see that coming!<br />
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Blinded by the light</div>
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Revved up like a deuce</div>
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Another runner in the night</div>
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Manfred Mann</div>
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Running on empty </div>
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Running blind</div>
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Jackson Brown</div>
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Greetings</div>
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Happy Solstice. (late, as usual). </div>
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So, of course, these days we have learned to accept climate change. But we naturally hope it would be in some other place, or some other time. For instance, <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=https://thinkprogress.org/newtok-alaska-gets-relocation-funding-35b4434242a6/&source=gmail&ust=1530200744553000&usg=AFQjCNFDaK_Ln8a8Uq6MAypuUS783c5zaA" href="https://thinkprogress.org/newtok-alaska-gets-relocation-funding-35b4434242a6/" rel="noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank"> In Alaska they have to move entire towns</a>; south Florida is flooding without storms, see<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=https://grist.org/article/rising-seas-could-wipe-out-1-trillion-worth-of-u-s-homes-and-businesses/&source=gmail&ust=1530200744553000&usg=AFQjCNFy1hVbxL4NQPL6oqzQItOXpYv0bQ" href="https://grist.org/article/rising-seas-could-wipe-out-1-trillion-worth-of-u-s-homes-and-businesses/" rel="noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank"> here</a> (nice maps <a href="https://ucsusa.maps.arcgis.com/apps/MapSeries/index.html?appid=cf07ebe0a4c9439ab2e7e346656cb239" style="color: #1155cc;">here</a></div>
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; <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/india-water-crisis-shortage-niti-aayog-report-drought-mismanagement-a8403286.htm&source=gmail&ust=1530200744553000&usg=AFQjCNHGRAj9O9rg3tqhqFjpCiih7oRbXw" href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/india-water-crisis-shortage-niti-aayog-report-drought-mismanagement-a8403286.htm" rel="noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank"> water shortages in India</a> . But not in my city. Surely not in Salem. <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=https://www.statesmanjournal.com/story/news/2018/06/10/salem-drinking-water-advisory-remains-place-least-two-weeks/688944002/&source=gmail&ust=1530200744553000&usg=AFQjCNFAal41EB5hpsmKZZWtdkfwaPcxvA" href="https://www.statesmanjournal.com/story/news/2018/06/10/salem-drinking-water-advisory-remains-place-least-two-weeks/688944002/" rel="noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">Yes, in Salem</a>, you can't drink the water</div>
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And<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=https://www.statesmanjournal.com/story/news/2018/06/13/salem-water-update-41-systems-risk-toxic-algae-blooms-oregon-health-authority/696665002/&source=gmail&ust=1530200744553000&usg=AFQjCNHRJMpHEZAsj6Ao88CZ0XZ3jp_3-w" href="https://www.statesmanjournal.com/story/news/2018/06/13/salem-water-update-41-systems-risk-toxic-algae-blooms-oregon-health-authority/696665002/" rel="noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank"> maybe lots of other places.</a> Here's an explanation form<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=http://climate.org/algae-cyanobacteria-blooms-and-climate-change/&source=gmail&ust=1530200744553000&usg=AFQjCNHQ7ES_xEzIh61N0FcY0JYpB4SQ8A" href="http://climate.org/algae-cyanobacteria-blooms-and-climate-change/" rel="noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank"> The Climate Institute</a></div>
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Climate change contributes to excess cyanobacteria blooms by creating ideal conditions for cyanobacteria to grow. Cyanobacteria thrive in warm waters: as global temperatures rise, so too does global water temperatures. Cyanobacteria not only grow more rapidly in warm water from increased temperatures, but warmer waters also make it more difficult for water to mix, meaning the surface of the water remains much warmer than the rest of the body of water—and cyanobacteria grow more successfully on the surface.<span style="border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-size: 10px; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; height: 0px; line-height: 1; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">5</span> This is also disadvantageous because growing a thick cover on the surface of the water means that this photosynthetic organism can absorb sunlight easily, and grow even more rapidly.</div>
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Furthermore, increasing concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide are also favorable to the growth of cyanobacteria.<span style="border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-size: 10px; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; height: 0px; line-height: 1; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">6 </span>The combination of warmer water temperatures and carbon dioxide absorption further creates perfect conditions for cyanobacteria growth and blooms.</div>
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A change in climate also affects precipitation rates and patterns. According to NASA, “Rising temperatures will intensify the Earth’s water cycle, increasing evaporation. Increased evaporation will result in more storms, but also contribute to drying over some land areas.”<span style="border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-size: 10px; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; height: 0px; line-height: 1; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">7</span> This poses a problem when increased rainfall and storms causes more frequent nutrient pollution, “Thus, fertilization of arable land, sewage discharging, industrial effluents, use of detergents, extensive livestock farming are some of the activities that are responsible for the anthropogenic input of nutrients.”<span style="border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-size: 10px; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; height: 0px; line-height: 1; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">8</span></div>
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I guess the bottom line is, we need to expect the unexpected. <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=https://insideclimatenews.org/news/26122017/climate-change-science-2017-year-review-evidence-impact-faster-more-extreme&source=gmail&ust=1530200744553000&usg=AFQjCNHEhpNIer1GUXU_Uj6EaCXC9_VuVA" href="https://insideclimatenews.org/news/26122017/climate-change-science-2017-year-review-evidence-impact-faster-more-extreme" rel="noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank"> Here's Michael Mann</a></div>
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Uncertainty is not our friend here," said Penn State climate scientist Michael Mann. "We are seeing increases in extreme weather events that go well beyond what has been predicted or projected in the past. We're learning that there are factors we were not previously aware of that may be magnifying the impacts of human-caused climate change." Among those are "subtle mechanisms involving the behavior of the jet stream that may be involved in explaining the dramatic increase we've seen in floods, droughts, heat waves and wildfires," he said.</div>
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"Increasingly, the science suggests that many of the impacts are occurring earlier and with greater amplitude than was predicted," Mann said, after considering new research since the milestone of the IPCC's Fifth Assessment, which served as the scientific basis for the Paris Agreement.</div>
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"We have literally, in the space of a year, doubled our assessment of the potential sea level rise we could see by the end of this century. That is simply remarkable. And it is sobering," he said.</div>
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Who was expecting toxic algea blooms? How about <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/hurricane-harvey-when-rain-bombs-go-nuclear_us_59a595e6e4b03c5da162afcd&source=gmail&ust=1530200744554000&usg=AFQjCNEI-mBeoLhM_TctG6pryTjzaHKS7A" href="https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/hurricane-harvey-when-rain-bombs-go-nuclear_us_59a595e6e4b03c5da162afcd" rel="noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">"rain bombs"</a> like Houston had? Or the<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=https://robertscribbler.com/2018/06/21/how-arctic-sea-ice-loss-could-make-the-hot-pacific-blob-permanent/&source=gmail&ust=1530200744554000&usg=AFQjCNHvalqofdLpd6LvR9PYdUKOeKENpg" href="https://robertscribbler.com/2018/06/21/how-arctic-sea-ice-loss-could-make-the-hot-pacific-blob-permanent/" rel="noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank"> "hot blob</a>"?</div>
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: georgia, cambria, "palatino linotype", serif; font-size: 14.6667px;">'An ocean heating event called </span><a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Blob_%2528Pacific_Ocean%2529&source=gmail&ust=1530200744554000&usg=AFQjCNHQwGlYaxGQgSbAiN70PjA3L7pxBQ" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Blob_%28Pacific_Ocean%29" rel="noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer" style="background: 0px 0px rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #b91313; font-family: georgia, cambria, "palatino linotype", serif; font-size: 14.6667px; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">the Blob</a><span style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: georgia, cambria, "palatino linotype", serif; font-size: 14.6667px;"> resulted in mass loss of sea life during the period of 2013-2014. It was associated with a towering high pressure ridge in which the upper level winds ran far to the north and into the Arctic. Beneath the ridge, temperatures both at the land and ocean surface grew to be much warmer than normal.</span></div>
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Or how about " <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/jun/17/where-have-insects-gone-climate-change-population-decline&source=gmail&ust=1530200744554000&usg=AFQjCNF9L8c2FaqJfQy-kHvTIM2oI6X7uw" href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/jun/17/where-have-insects-gone-climate-change-population-decline" rel="noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">insect Armageddon</a>"?</div>
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #121212; font-family: "guardian text egyptian web", georgia, serif; font-size: 17px;">"An insect Armageddon is under way, say many entomologists, the result of a multiple whammy of environmental impacts: pollution, habitat changes, overuse of pesticides, and global warming. And it is a decline that could have crucial consequences. Our creepy crawlies may have unsettling looks but they lie at the foot of a wildlife food chain that makes them vitally important to the makeup and nature of the countryside. They are “the little things that run the world” according to the distinguished Harvard biologist Edward O Wilson, who once observed: “If all humankind were to disappear, the world would regenerate back to the rich state of equilibrium that existed 10,000 years ago. If insects were to vanish, the environment would collapse into chaos.”</span></blockquote>
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #121212; font-family: "guardian text egyptian web", georgia, serif; font-size: 17px;">So, the impacts are worse than we had expected at this temperature. And the temperature is rising faster than we had expected. How fast? <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2018-05/ioap-ect052318.php&source=gmail&ust=1530200744554000&usg=AFQjCNHiIxWYg4uLZbx_SyNogCLIWK0mQg" href="https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2018-05/ioap-ect052318.php" rel="noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">How about </a></span><a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2018-05/ioap-ect052318.php&source=gmail&ust=1530200744554000&usg=AFQjCNHiIxWYg4uLZbx_SyNogCLIWK0mQg" href="https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2018-05/ioap-ect052318.php" rel="noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank"> 4 degrees above pre industrial as early as 2064?</a></div>
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A great many record-breaking heat events, heavy floods, and extreme droughts would occur if global warming crosses the 4 °C level, with respect to the preindustrial period," said Dabang Jiang, a senior researcher at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics of the Chinese Academy of Sciences. "The temperature increase would cause severe threats to ecosystems, human systems, and associated societies and economies."</div>
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In the analysis, Jiang and his team used the parameters of scenario in which there was no mitigation of rising greenhouse gas emissions. They compared 39 coordinated climate model experiments from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=https://www.wcrp-climate.org/wgcm-cmip&source=gmail&ust=1530200744554000&usg=AFQjCNH1B7Uv3tSmOPAHHzQtjDz9ds_ayA" href="https://www.wcrp-climate.org/wgcm-cmip" rel="noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer" style="background: transparent; color: #0088cc; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">https://www.wcrp-climate.org/<wbr></wbr>wgcm-cmip</a>), which develops and reviews climate models to ensure the most accurate climate simulations possible.</div>
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They found that most of the models projected an increase of 4°C as early as 2064 and as late as 2095 in the 21st century, with 2084 appearing as the median year.</div>
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Study<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00376-018-7160-4&source=gmail&ust=1530200744554000&usg=AFQjCNEHLknPlKKH_jey0F3QWcAVIxXf_g" href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00376-018-7160-4" rel="noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank"> here</a></div>
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Of course that's the "worst case". Unfortunately, expecting the worst case seems to be the most prudent approach..</div>
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #505054; font-family: "open sans", "helvetica neue", helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 16px;">According to a recent</span><a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=http://www.commondreams.org/headline/2012/11/09&source=gmail&ust=1530200744554000&usg=AFQjCNFIzxtFbjn3Paiu0g0c67t_hOa9qQ" href="http://www.commondreams.org/headline/2012/11/09" rel="noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer" style="background-color: white; color: #44bad2; font-family: "open sans", "helvetica neue", helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">analysis from scientists at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR),</a><span style="background-color: white; color: #505054; font-family: "open sans", "helvetica neue", helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 16px;"> "[t]he worst case projections for global warming may be the most likely.”</span></div>
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Are we already in a "climate emergency"? I recently came across a book that suggests we are, and offer a somewhat different slant on our predicament. It's called, "Climate and Ecological Delusions and Contradictions That Will Rapidly End Humanity…Unless..."Free download <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=https://d3n8a8pro7vhmx.cloudfront.net/ccbiatl/pages/102/attachments/original/1526677327/Delusions-and-Contradictions-v1.0.pdf?1526677327&source=gmail&ust=1530200744554000&usg=AFQjCNEC21e3KHKcf-wZTTSvodHf5c697A" href="https://d3n8a8pro7vhmx.cloudfront.net/ccbiatl/pages/102/attachments/original/1526677327/Delusions-and-Contradictions-v1.0.pdf?1526677327" rel="noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">here</a>. </div>
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The author argues that our current "plan", designed by politicians, is a recipe for disaster. it consists of a rapid build-out of renewables (and a conversion of industrial and transportation to electricity). As that cannot achieve the necessary reductions in CO2, a carbon sucking technology is proposed to fill the gap. </div>
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Relying on the work of Kevin Anderson, the book argues that while the plan is politically feasible, in practice it will not, and perhaps can not succeed. The build-out would need to be much faster (perhaps 400 times as fast - see <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=https://www.technologyreview.com/s/610457/at-this-rate-its-going-to-take-nearly-400-years-to-transform-the-energy-system/&source=gmail&ust=1530200744554000&usg=AFQjCNGj8anAKbFp9fphHtb_unVf90yH0A" href="https://www.technologyreview.com/s/610457/at-this-rate-its-going-to-take-nearly-400-years-to-transform-the-energy-system/" rel="noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">here</a> ). The current Paris agreement proposals will lead to 2-3 degrees beyond pre-industrial. And the countries that agreed to them are not following through (see <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=https://wedocs.unep.org/bitstream/handle/20.500.11822/22070/EGR_2017.pdf&source=gmail&ust=1530200744554000&usg=AFQjCNGOCRwA1aVSt3FqVSc6-a6N9ZYM7g" href="https://wedocs.unep.org/bitstream/handle/20.500.11822/22070/EGR_2017.pdf" rel="noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">UN emissions gap report</a>). Furthermore, the carbon sucking technology has not been demonstrated . and the leading contender BECC, is potentially harmful.</div>
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But these facts are not well known. In fact, we are flooded with,"feel good " stories about high tech making great strides. Of course, strides are being made but they are dwarfed by the size of the problem.</div>
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And so the "problem,". (i.e. something that can be solved,) is rapidly turning into a "predicament ", (something that must be endured.) Some aspects are already out of our control - see e.g. melting glaciers in the Arctic. They argue that the only counterweight to the press and the politicians is the philanthropies . These organizations control billions of dollars, they could illuminate our actual situation, and what it would really take to adapt to our current predicament and to avoid even more dangerous climate change.</div>
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The authors recognized the difficulty in getting through to the general public in a way that is " visible and visceral", a gut punch of reality. They offer some examples of techniques but recognize the competing strength of our habitual world views.</div>
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The stories we tell ourselves, the cultural paradigms that represent the water we fish swim in, change slowly until they no longer work. It is easy then to ignore coming disasters, even though we may acknowledge their looming reality. Most people continue to use vast amounts of fossil fuels, and to consume far more than our happiness requires, even though we are aware our excesses will have dark consequences down the road. The future is “discounted”168 by all of us, not only by economists. There is no evidence-based, rational way that we can continue current operating systems–taking twice what Mother Earth can maintain, sustain, regenerate, supply to us without exhaustion. These are delusions, multi-faceted and interconnected. Yet facts alone will not move or change dominant human behavioral patterns or habituated cultural perspectives.</div>
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Here is<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/jun/19/james-hansen-nasa-scientist-climate-change-warning&source=gmail&ust=1530200744554000&usg=AFQjCNE7OalvBsfXlwIw_3CcUKrC1u535w" href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/jun/19/james-hansen-nasa-scientist-climate-change-warning" rel="noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank"> James Hansons assessment</a> of our actions to date.</div>
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All we’ve done is agree there’s a problem,” Hansen told the Guardian. “We agreed that in 1992 [at the Earth summit in Rio] and re-agreed it again in <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=https://www.theguardian.com/environment/paris-climate-agreement&source=gmail&ust=1530200744554000&usg=AFQjCNGdJSM2ueZFbf1ex_YDgs5M9THA5w" href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/paris-climate-agreement" rel="noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer" style="background: transparent; border-bottom: 0.0625rem solid rgb(220, 220, 220); color: #880105; text-decoration-line: none !important;" target="_blank">Paris</a> [at the 2015 climate accord]. We haven’t acknowledged what is required to solve it. Promises like Paris don’t mean much, it’s wishful thinking. It’s a hoax that governments have played on us since the 1990s.”</div>
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Hansen’s long list of culprits for this inertia are both familiar – the nefarious lobbying of the fossil fuel industry – and surprising. Jerry Brown, the progressive governor of California, and the German chancellor, Angela Merkel, are “both pretending to be solving the problem” while being unambitious and shunning low-carbon nuclear power, Hansen argues.</div>
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<span style="color: #121212; font-family: "guardian text egyptian web", georgia, serif; font-size: 17px;">There is particular scorn for Barack Obama. Hansen says in a scathing </span><a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=https://www.amazon.co.uk/Sophies-Planet-Search-Remarkable-Future/dp/1632868946&source=gmail&ust=1530200744554000&usg=AFQjCNGjUTpynHi1JbapFMDnh1_HRg272A" href="https://www.amazon.co.uk/Sophies-Planet-Search-Remarkable-Future/dp/1632868946" rel="noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border-bottom: 0.0625rem solid rgb(220, 220, 220); color: #880105; font-family: "guardian text egyptian web", georgia, serif; font-size: 17px; text-decoration-line: none !important;" target="_blank">upcoming book</a><span style="color: #121212; font-family: "guardian text egyptian web", georgia, serif; font-size: 17px;"> that the former president “failed miserably” on climate change and oversaw policies that were “late, ineffectual and partisan”.</span></blockquote>
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So, instead of dealing with the problem - our hyper consumption paradigm that is creating the overshoot in so many areas, we deal only with the symptoms. Some symptoms are anticipated like wildfires and drought . Some are not, like toxic algea. Are we ready for this Brave New Climate? </div>
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And what about the issue of the day, immigration? Here's an interesting analysis . from<a href="https://www.thedailybeast.com/climate-change-sparked-the-border-migration-crisis" style="color: #1155cc;"> here</a>. See also<a href="https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/welcome-to-the-age-of-climate-migration-w516974" style="color: #1155cc;"> Welcome to the age of climate migration</a></div>
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One factor causing migrants to risk everything—even potentially losing their children—to travel through the heat of summer in the dangerous desert and towards the barbed wire fences and tent cities springing up just south of the United States border: climate change.</div>
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Many of the migrants being detained here now hail from what's referred variously as the Dry Corridor or the Northern Triangle, which consists of the three countries immediately south of Mexico: Guatemala, El Salvador, and Honduras.</div>
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The agricultural crisis of the Northern Triangle area isn't something that cropped up overnight, but has been in the making for more than a decade. The Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations published a <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=http://www.fao.org/3/a-br092e.pdf&source=gmail&ust=1530200744554000&usg=AFQjCNEnsK6kXS9Lp3J9x6omIbxWE6Baxw" href="http://www.fao.org/3/a-br092e.pdf" rel="noreferrer" style="background-color: transparent; color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">report</a> in June 2016 that described the depth of the food insecurity crisis in the region, leaving 3.5 million people, or nearly 30 percent of the population, food insecure from crop losses estimated to be as high as 90 percent.</div>
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Why the high crop losses? It’s due to a cycle of severe drought followed by tumultuous rainfall in the region, a pair of extreme weather patterns attributed to <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=https://www.thedailybeast.com/were-worse-off-than-ever-for-el-nino&source=gmail&ust=1530200744554000&usg=AFQjCNHqaTedmSHtLz7Im1D050FkYyvCow" href="https://www.thedailybeast.com/were-worse-off-than-ever-for-el-nino" rel="noreferrer" style="background-color: transparent; color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">El Nino and La Nina</a>.</div>
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<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=http://www.fao.org/3/a-br092e.pdf&source=gmail&ust=1530200744554000&usg=AFQjCNEnsK6kXS9Lp3J9x6omIbxWE6Baxw" href="http://www.fao.org/3/a-br092e.pdf" rel="noreferrer" style="background-color: transparent; color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">Kicking off in 2015</a>, this latest cycle of El Nino has twisted normal weather patterns in the region. By the next year, 2016, many in the Dry Corridor region reported at least two failed harvests as local weather patterns turned to La Nina, which is characterized by above-normal summer rainfall. That rainfall is made doubly dangerous when the Atlantic hurricane season—<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=https://www.thedailybeast.com/hurricanes-are-now-so-violent-that-we-need-a-new-category&source=gmail&ust=1530200744554000&usg=AFQjCNF11Kn_U3VXRNb7PK6VaSI-YcLElQ" href="https://www.thedailybeast.com/hurricanes-are-now-so-violent-that-we-need-a-new-category" rel="noreferrer" style="background-color: transparent; color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">which has gotten more violent every year</a>—dumps plenty of its own rainfall, making farming difficult, if not absolutely impossible.</div>
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"What we're talking about here are changing precipitation patterns," <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=https://www.american.edu/profiles/faculty/albro.cfm&source=gmail&ust=1530200744554000&usg=AFQjCNHN1it8QGaDDVNpWGP7-j-uFiPUoQ" href="https://www.american.edu/profiles/faculty/albro.cfm" rel="noreferrer" style="background-color: transparent; color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">Robert Albro</a>, a research associate professor in the Center for Latin American and Latino Studies at American University, said. "Climate scientists have observed that climate change is exacerbating El Nino and La Nina, so we see radically changing seasonal patterns."</div>
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So, how are we going to deal with all these changes. Be resilient, I suppose. Be prepared, be flexible, have good community networks. One lesson from Salem's water problems is that average citizens are very unprepared for any emergency. They expect to be bailed out by somebody else - the government. see <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=https://www.statesmanjournal.com/story/opinion/editorithe%2520als/2018/06/08/salems-water-crisis-exposes-lack-personal-preparedness-diaster/685106002/&source=gmail&ust=1530200744554000&usg=AFQjCNEntjKP9yCPaQZ-uPDE4BbQLCo9OQ" href="https://www.statesmanjournal.com/story/opinion/editorithe%20als/2018/06/08/salems-water-crisis-exposes-lack-personal-preparedness-diaster/685106002/" rel="noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">Statesman editorial.</a></div>
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It's flawed reasoning for most residents to assume government will provide all necessary supplies in an emergency or that outside assistance will be instantly ready to offer aid.</div>
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The run early last week on water at area stores was worrisome but understandable because few were aware of the potential toxins threatening the water supply, so to them, it came without warning.</div>
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But residents with the means should have been able to crack open their emergency kit and take water from it.</div>
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It was an ideal opportunity to use water that might have been stored for a few months, and then replace it when the threat receded.</div>
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And yet, most raced to the store to buy water and other supplies causing many retailers to run out. Others took advantage of city and state water-distribution points.</div>
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With these recent water advisories, too many residents demonstrated they were unprepared to be without water and other supplies for a couple of days, let alone the couple of weeks.</div>
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Individuals who can, bear primary responsibility for preparing themselves. </div>
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It's easy to bellyache about the failures of government; it's much harder to take responsibility for our own. </div>
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So, expect the unexpected. And prepare.</div>
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Walterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18048738723369282833noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1190362411119958387.post-28938712428411263652018-05-09T10:02:00.002-07:002018-05-09T10:02:55.257-07:00I went down to the cross roads<div dir="auto">
Where do think you're going?<div>
I think you don't know</div>
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Mark Knoffler</div>
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And where will you go my blue eyed son</div>
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And where will you go, my darling young one?</div>
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Bob Dylan</div>
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Greetings</div>
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In case you missed the news -for the first time the monthly average CO2 concentration exceeded 410, in April. Just so you know</div>
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #1f1f1f; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 16px;">These CO2 levels, according to </span><a href="https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-atmospheric-carbon-dioxide" style="background-color: white; color: #529546; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 16px; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">NOAA's climate department</a><span style="background-color: white; color: #1f1f1f; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 16px;">, haven't been seen on Earth in 3 million years, when temperatures were 3.6° to 5.4°F warmer, and sea level was 50 to 80 feet higher than today</span></div>
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Of course, in order to deal with climate change we nee to start reducing the Co2 concentration, hopefully to 350. But before we can do that we need to stop it from growing. But before we do that we need to stop accelerating! That's right the growth rate of CO2 concentration, is itself growing. See <a href="https://www.co2.earth/co2-acceleration" style="color: #1155cc;">this chart </a></div>
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<span style="color: black;"><span style="color: grey;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: grey;">Decadal Average Annual Growth Rates</span></span><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: grey;">Mauna Loa Observatory (MLO)</span></span>1958 - 2014<br /></span></span></h4>
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<span style="color: white;">Atmospheric CO<span style="bottom: -0.25em; font-size: 18.375px; line-height: 0; vertical-align: baseline;">2</span></span></h3>
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<span style="color: blue;"> 2.11 ppm per year </span></h4>
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<span style="color: blue;"> 1.44 ppm per year</span></h4>
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<span style="color: blue;"> 1.06 ppm per year</span></h4>
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<span style="color: blue;">0.73 ppm per year<br /></span></h4>
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One way to see the climate situation is that we are at a crossroad, and there are three roads ahead to choose from. . The 2, the 3, and the 4 degree roads. As shown from<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2018/4/30/17300946/global-warming-degrees-replace-fossil-fuels&source=gmail&ust=1525910813254000&usg=AFQjCNH-UKtRBNGdSup3Jm9MU5_7iUWxoA" href="https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2018/4/30/17300946/global-warming-degrees-replace-fossil-fuels" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank"> this article by Dave Roberts</a></div>
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As for the 2 degree road, he find that it is possible, though extremely unlikely. In a nicely titled article "<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2018/5/7/17306008/global-warming-climate-change-scenarios-ambition&source=gmail&ust=1525910813254000&usg=AFQjCNHkvZQcDfCDs4hnwa9gJT_SwzMSuw" href="https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2018/5/7/17306008/global-warming-climate-change-scenarios-ambition" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">What genuine, no bullshit ambition on climate change would look like</a>." he reviews a number of proposals that do not incorporate "negative emissions" such as BECC, Why no BECC? Roberts explains</div>
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<span style="color: #4c4e4d; font-family: Balto, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 18px;">"There is currently no commercial BECCS industry. Neither the BE nor the CCS part has been demonstrated at any serious scale, much less at the scale necessary. (The land area needed to grow all that biomass for BECCS in these models is estimated to be around one to three times the size of India.)</span></div>
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Roberts concludes that although it is "possible", it would require adopting a number of changes, technical, political and behavioral. </div>
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"...a global carbon tax, maximized efficiency, an explosion of renewable energy, a wholesale revolution in agriculture, rapid reduction of non-CO2 GHGs, a rapid shift in global lifestyle choices, and successful measures to curb population growth — would be an enormous achievement.</div>
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To completely avoid BECCS while still hitting the 1.5 degree target, we would have to accomplish all of them.</div>
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That is highly unlikely. Still, the important point of the <em style="box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: inherit; vertical-align: inherit;">Nature</em><em style="box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: inherit; vertical-align: inherit;"> Climate Change</em> research remains: “alternative pathways exist allowing for more moderate use and postponement of BECCS.” Given the substantial and uncharted difficulties facing BECCS, policymakers owe those alternative pathways a look.</div>
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Obviously these strategies face all kinds of social and economic barriers. (I’m trying to envision what it would take to rapidly shift Americans from beef to cultured meat ... trying and failing.)</div>
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It's hard to imagine this without a dictatorial take over or a wartime situation.</div>
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The second road is the one that leads to 3 - 3.5 degrees by 2100. This is the road Roberts thinks we are on. To see what that would be like Roberts suggests <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=https://owlcation.com/stem/Mark-Lynass-Six-Degrees-A-Summary-Review&source=gmail&ust=1525910813254000&usg=AFQjCNE4iUJPXY78wWQdEGWb_wuZJREMIg" href="https://owlcation.com/stem/Mark-Lynass-Six-Degrees-A-Summary-Review" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank"> a summary of "6 degrees" by Mark Lynas</a> . It describes the effects </div>
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As Lynas puts it:</div>
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<em>With structural famine gripping much of the subtropics, hundreds of millions of people will have only one choice left other than death for themselves and their families: They will have to pack up their belongings and leave... Conflicts will inevitably erupt as these numerous climate refugees spill into already densely populated areas... Uprooted, stateless, and without hope, these will be the first generation of a new type of people: climate nomads, constantly moving in search of food, their varied cultures forgotten, ancestral ties to ancient lands cut forever... As social collapse accelerates, new political philosophies may emerge, philosophies that seek to lay blame where it truly belongs--on the rich countries that lit the fire that has now begun to consume the world.</em></div>
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but even more alarming it also suggests</div>
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With 3 degrees of warming, "Instead of absorbing CO2, vegetation and soils start releasing it in massive quantities, as soil bacteria work faster to break down organic matter in a hotter environment, and plant growth goes into reverse." The result, in the model, was the release of an additional 250 ppm of carbon dioxide by 2100, and an additional 1.5 degrees of warming. In other words, the 3 C world was not stable--hitting the 3-degree threshold meant hitting a 'tipping point' which led directly (though not immediately) to the 4 C world.</div>
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This effect was primarily due to a huge dieback of the Amazon rainforest. With warming and drying the rainforest collapsed almost completely. Later studies found globally similar effects, albeit in differing amounts. And a recent study suggests that the likelihood of an Amazonian collapse may be lower than first thought--welcome news, to be sure.</div>
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If that's true, the best you can say about the three degree road is that it doesn't get to 4 degrees quite as fast </div>
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The third road also goes to 4 degrees, but much faster - by 2100. We can get to this result by taking no action. </div>
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I'm not going to describe what that would look like - if you are interested take a look <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=https://owlcation.com/stem/Mark-Lynass-Six-Degrees-A-Summary-Review&source=gmail&ust=1525910813254000&usg=AFQjCNE4iUJPXY78wWQdEGWb_wuZJREMIg" href="https://owlcation.com/stem/Mark-Lynass-Six-Degrees-A-Summary-Review" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank"> here</a> Lets just say its not to be wished for. </div>
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It is worthwhile to note that each of these roads assumes the continued growth of the industrial consumer economy. In fact, it may argued that it is that growth that makes these scenarios likely.</div>
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(It is worth mentioning that global emissions declined in the 19900's was the period when the USSR broke up, causing what might be called an economic collapse in Russia and the surrounding nations. They also fell in 2008 -09. There also was a dip in 2015, but it was quickly at<a href="http://www.climatecentral.org/news/carbon-dioxide-record-rates-21242" style="color: #1155cc;"> by record breaking amounts</a> )</div>
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So, what about a slow down of the industrial / consumer enterprise ?</div>
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There are two alternatives. Voluntary or involuntary. On the voluntary side, you might find the transition offered by The Simpler Way. See eg <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=http://thesimplerway.info/TRANSITION.htm&source=gmail&ust=1525910813255000&usg=AFQjCNGBLZy0hr4N_6v-98Q44FHaTwHW6A" href="http://thesimplerway.info/TRANSITION.htm" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">here</a>. Here is a summary</div>
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Given the magnitude of the overshoot, the huge extent to which we have exceeded sustainable limits, there can be no solution unless there is enormous and radical transition to some kind of Simpler Way. Only this can enable per capita resource use to be cut to the region of 10% of present levels. Thus there must be:</div>
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<u>Much simpler lifestyles</u>, far lower per capita resource consumption.</div>
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<u>Mostly small, highly self-sufficient local economies</u>, putting local resources into meeting local needs. When petroleum becomes scarce there will be no choice about this.</div>
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M<u>uch more cooperative and participatory ways</u>, enabling people in small communities to take collective control of their own development, to include and provide for all. We must develop commons, co-ops and working bees.</div>
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<u>Participatory town self-government</u>, The important decisions about the development and running of the town must be made by town assemblies, local committees andreferenda involving everyone. The town must be have as much control over its own fate as possible.</div>
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A<u> new economy</u>, one that is not driven by profit or market forces, that has no growth at all, that involves far less production and work than the present one, and focuses on needs and rights and the quality of life of all. It might have many private firms anda market sector, but there must be (participatory, democratic, open and local) social control over what is developed, what is produced, and how it is distributed. All must be provided for, meaning no poverty or unemployment and everyone having a livelihood, the capacity to make a valued contribution.</div>
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<u>New values</u>. These communities cannot work well unless people shift from the present individualistic, competitive and acquisitive orientation to a world view focused on being content with frugal sufficiency and living within a supportive community in which all enjoy a high quality of life. There must be conscientious and socially responsible citizens who prioritise the public good.</div>
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This, also looks fairly challenging! Like Roberts's 2 degree no bullshit plans, this would require significant behavioral and political changes.</div>
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As for the involuntary, here is another perspective. Nate Hagens, who now spends his time attempting to prepare college students for what he calls "The Great Simplification", a period of declining available energy and goods He believes "The Great Simplification"will begin on the next decade. He hopes to prepare students by giving them some idea why it is happening. As part of this , he offers a grounding in some topics which they may not be exposed yo otherwise such as : the role of energy in the economy, system dynamics, ecological economics, , and evolutionary psychology.</div>
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See<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=http://peakoil.com/generalideas/where-are-we-going&source=gmail&ust=1525910813255000&usg=AFQjCNHOG4lytbFhqWwB2oFI71iAgm3VmQ" href="http://peakoil.com/generalideas/where-are-we-going" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank"> here </a>for some of ideas - </div>
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Here is his summary</div>
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<em>Around 11,000 years ago, as the last ice age ended, our ancestors – in no fewer than 5 locations around the world – took advantage of the new conditions and tried an agricultural way of life. Fast forward through two momentous phase shifts in human history (agricultural and industrial revolutions), and here we are: approaching 8 billion, </em><em>seeking freedom, experiences, and material wealth all derived from physical surplus. As many are aware, the procuring of this ‘surplus’ is also impacting the larger sphere outside our homes, (we call it “Earth”) in increasingly deleterious ways. Yet, at an annual global growth rate of 3%, which most governments and institutions expect, <u>we would close to double the size of energy and materials it took us 11,000 years to amass, <strong>in the next 25 years</strong></u></em><strong><em>.</em></strong></div>
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<em>Under current trends, a college student today would see over 2 such doublings in her lifetime. (yes, 2X</em><em>è</em><em> 4X in size by the time they’re 70). Is this possible? Is this desirable? What are the variables that will influence this trajectory? What would be the impacts if it happens? And if it doesn’t? There currently is no natural entity in our society charged with such questions. Or answers to the questions. But perhaps there should be. A systems synthesis which integrates aspects of energy, the environment, the economy and human behavior is a prerequisite to understanding what is unlikely, what is possible, what’s at stake, and ultimately what to strive for and work towards.</em></div>
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<em>My own conclusion is that The Next Doubling is now no longer possible. In the coming decade, we are going to have to collectively deal with what I refer to as the Great Simplification. This will mean less physical throughput and fewer economic benefits to the average citizen in the developed world than the past 2 decades. If managed, the Great Simplification could result in positive outcomes and a saner system and very high standards of living vs most periods in our history.</em></div>
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His view is that we are hitting "peak affordable oil", but that the price of the oil is artificially low, in part as a result of cheap credit for oil companies, allowing companies to sell oil below cost. see<a href="https://www.peakprosperity.com/page/transcript-nate-hagens-were-not-facing-shortage-energy-longage-expectations" style="color: #1155cc;"> here</a></div>
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<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">We need energy to create our physical realities and create our economic growth and trade for transport, everything. If the energy sector requires a greater and greater chunk of that energy, we have less available for the rest of discretionary society. And once that constraint exists and even accelerates, you need to respond to that. And the way we responded to that was increasing our debt, which, of course, as you know, is pretty much created by a pen stroke. So that can temporarily offset energy shortages at a cost of a steeper decline, because debt actually functions as a spacial and temporal reallocater of resources, away from the periphery towards the center and away from the future towards the present. So there’s a very subtle but important relationship between debt and energy. And the problem is, is that most of, as you term, economic priests and priestesses, don’t have training in the biophysical economic world, and they treat everything in monetary terms. And we just throw more money at the problem, and it’ll go away. Well, our energy, and especially our net energy story, is getting worse. So we’re increasing our money supply while our energy supply is declining, and, yeah, that’s not a good situation.</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;"> And eventually we get to a point where the oil companies need higher and higher oil price in order to make a profit, but society can afford less and less. And at some point those two prices of oil cross and we have a real problem. You know, right now, the marginal barrel of oil costs between $70 and $90, so there’s a little bit of a cushion in there now. But a lot of people say above a hundred dollar oil, it has significant economic headwinds. So at some point there, dollars don’t become an accurate measure of our real natural resource balance sheet. </span></div>
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<span style="color: black; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">It's pssoble that we have hit that point. Art Berman reports that<a href="https://twitter.com/aeberman12/status/932960986465820672" style="color: #1155cc;"> 2/3 of tight oil companies lost money in the first 3 quarters of 2017</a></span><br />
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<span style="color: black; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">and<a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/profits-jump-at-exxon-chevron-bp-total-shell-1509109079" style="color: #1155cc;"> the Wall Street Journal reported </a></span></div>
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See also Heinberg,<a href="http://richardheinberg.com/museletter-311-end-growth-seven-years-later" style="color: #1155cc;"> here</a></div>
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Is "the Great Simplification" inevitable? Will it be beneficial? Is it something to encourage? see <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=https://holmgren.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/Crash-on-demand.pdf&source=gmail&ust=1525910813255000&usg=AFQjCNEoHrAwSId0mSPWhJ8ELBi5n1oFkQ" href="https://holmgren.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/Crash-on-demand.pdf" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">Crash on Demand</a></div>
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For an interesting discussion of the possibility of, and the likely impacts of, an economic. "collapse", with George Monbiot, David Holmgren, Nicol Foss and others see <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=https://damnthematrix.wordpress.com/2018/05/06/to-collapse-or-not-to-collapse-2/&source=gmail&ust=1525910813255000&usg=AFQjCNEUo_StoZOwSbLucu5fKt9n37RnTw" href="https://damnthematrix.wordpress.com/2018/05/06/to-collapse-or-not-to-collapse-2/" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">here</a>. . Its quite entertaining.</div>
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Walterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18048738723369282833noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1190362411119958387.post-61053921360887364472018-04-09T18:32:00.000-07:002018-04-09T18:32:02.645-07:00Back to the Garden<div dir="auto">
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I've been spending the last few days shoveling dirt. Which is pretty elemental. This dirt has a lot of cow poop in it, so, there is no avoiding the basics of the basic biological realities of life on the planet. Which has got me thinking about sustainability My garden is far from it! </div>
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I suppose we all want "the good life" and the long-term sustainability of the ecosystem, (which is to say - the Holocene, but without the 6th extinction ).</div>
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We continue to argue about whether it is, in fact, an oxymoron - a contradiction, that lets us paper over the fact that we really want two contradictory things.</div>
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One data point emerged last month. <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/14/climate/sustainable-good-life.html&source=gmail&ust=1523410246100000&usg=AFQjCNFo6JBtsGn8hpftsxJ7S7_cLPrAZA" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/14/climate/sustainable-good-life.html" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank"> A study of the sustainability of various countries and their ability to provide the basis to their population. </a>. Study<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=https://www.nature.com/articles/s41893-018-0021-4.epdf?author_access_token%3Dk949BRalZ3W7nYuBcTmtlNRgN0jAjWel9jnR3ZoTv0NINAtj47DSpAGKNW0NM9Vb_zFNGjmxSFGJSQMCx84RL7YxfgXGFm3Q3uTZ7gpjE3hPBxSg24T_yK5Y20K9x3B3UIUT2BjJs7EL9iZ5Clalyw%253D%253D&source=gmail&ust=1523410246100000&usg=AFQjCNEwB9Gr14s1DRT5ttC2kqanTs0wCw" href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41893-018-0021-4.epdf?author_access_token=k949BRalZ3W7nYuBcTmtlNRgN0jAjWel9jnR3ZoTv0NINAtj47DSpAGKNW0NM9Vb_zFNGjmxSFGJSQMCx84RL7YxfgXGFm3Q3uTZ7gpjE3hPBxSg24T_yK5Y20K9x3B3UIUT2BjJs7EL9iZ5Clalyw%3D%3D" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank"> here</a></div>
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: nyt-imperial, georgia, "times new roman", times, serif; font-size: 18px;"><span style="font-size: 19px;">He did not say, however, that these findings doom humanity to poverty or environmental ruin. “It doesn’t tell us what’s theoretically possible,” he said, noting that the study only projects the results of continuing with business as usual. </span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: nyt-imperial, georgia, "times new roman", times, serif; font-size: 18px;"> So, it may possible, but we really have no existing model to point to.</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: nyt-imperial, georgia, "times new roman", times, serif; font-size: 18px;">So, what about theoretically? For instance what about CO2,? Is 100%</span><span style="color: #333333; font-family: nyt-imperial, georgia, "times new roman", times, serif; font-size: 18px;"> renewable power possible?.</span><span style="color: #333333; font-family: nyt-imperial, georgia, "times new roman", times, serif; font-size: 18px;"></span></div>
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There seems to be some disagreement on that question</div>
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Here's a good summary of the controversy comes from radio Ecoshock.</div>
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MIT Professor Mark Z. Jacobson published a paper in December 2015, outlining how the United States could power up with just wind, water, and solar. The title is “<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=http://www.pnas.org/content/112/49/15060&source=gmail&ust=1523410246100000&usg=AFQjCNHKEl9MKdaexTW8Qc46o_Y1uxx0KA" href="http://www.pnas.org/content/112/49/15060" rel="noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer" style="color: #003e04; outline: none;" target="_blank">Low-cost solution to the grid reliability problem with 100% penetration of intermittent wind, water, and solar for all purposes</a>“, PNAS.</div>
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Two years later, Caldeira along with others, including lead author Christopher Clack, issued a very negative rebuttal paper, also in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. That paper is “Evaluation of a proposal for reliable low-cost grid power with 100% wind, water, and solar”, PNAS, February 24, 2017. You can read the <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2017/06/16/1610381114.full.pdf&source=gmail&ust=1523410246100000&usg=AFQjCNF5F-LeGpcmH7M_Zm2E9CBArJwFGQ" href="http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2017/06/16/1610381114.full.pdf" rel="noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer" style="color: #003e04; outline: none;" target="_blank">full text here</a>.</div>
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Mark Jacobson pushed back with this article, published in the same issue of PNAS: “<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2017/06/16/1708069114&source=gmail&ust=1523410246100000&usg=AFQjCNFYuPRZBXXH9wGJcnyBalBWIJWibw" href="http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2017/06/16/1708069114" rel="noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer" style="color: #003e04; outline: none;" target="_blank">The United States can keep the grid stable at low cost with 100% clean, renewable energy in all sectors despite inaccurate claims</a>”</div>
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Jacobson appears to have taken criticism of his model as an insult to his science. In a move very unusual for debate in science, Jacobson sued C. Clack and the National AAcademy.<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2018/02/23/stanford-professor-withdraws-10-million-libel-suit-over-clean-energy-claims/&source=gmail&ust=1523410246100000&usg=AFQjCNHK120v8GLWu-9CI4qDwgQBHELuTA" href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2018/02/23/stanford-professor-withdraws-10-million-libel-suit-over-clean-energy-claims/" rel="noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer" style="color: #003e04; outline: none;" target="_blank">That suit was dropped this year.</a> You can read <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=https://twitter.com/mzjacobson/status/966800003439054848&source=gmail&ust=1523410246100000&usg=AFQjCNHj7BVLwiQdq4uj9juh9lp5-WSRwg" href="https://twitter.com/mzjacobson/status/966800003439054848" rel="noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer" style="color: #003e04; outline: none;" target="_blank">Mark’s Twee</a>t about the lawsuit ending here, and his full statement <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=http://web.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/Articles/I/CombiningRenew/18-02-FAQs.pdf&source=gmail&ust=1523410246100000&usg=AFQjCNHXFISY85n9a5A0bKOmmX6G_BevTQ" href="http://web.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/Articles/I/CombiningRenew/18-02-FAQs.pdf" rel="noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer" style="color: #003e04; outline: none;" target="_blank">here</a>. To dig into this further, Mark says “<em style="border: none;">a total of 30 peer-reviewed scientific papers located at [here at Stanford] support the contention that the grid can stay stable with 100% or near 100% renewable energy</em>.”</div>
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This Jacobson lawsuit sent a too some scientists wanting to add to this debate. You can read all about these “fisticuffs” <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=https://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/20/business/energy-environment/renewable-energy-national-academy-matt-jacobson.html&source=gmail&ust=1523410246100000&usg=AFQjCNF_Svlr6wyZJdT3DTRPGFx7nOPpBw" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/20/business/energy-environment/renewable-energy-national-academy-matt-jacobson.html" rel="noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer" style="color: #003e04; outline: none;" target="_blank">here in the New York Times</a>. It came to the point where one article rebutting Jacobson was passed on to Ken Caldi because the author worried about being sued. Caldeira published that articles blog.</div>
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In November of 2014, Mark Jacobson described his plan for all-green power here on Radio Ecoshock. But he did not talk about his heavy reliance on a projected renaissance of hydroelectric power. The problem is that Jacobson’s plan assumed nearly ten-fold increase in hydropower much of it by adding more generators to existing dams. You can find Ken Caldeira’s criticism of that hydro reliance <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=https://kencaldeira.wordpress.com/2018/02/28/mzj-hydro-explainer/&source=gmail&ust=1523410246100000&usg=AFQjCNENV5fA_OETpVOUzkXRO1_g35mG0g" href="https://kencaldeira.wordpress.com/2018/02/28/mzj-hydro-explainer/" rel="noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer" style="color: #003e04; outline: none;" target="_blank">here</a>.</div>
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<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=https://www.ecoshock.org/2018/03/hail-mary-to-save-the-climate.html&source=gmail&ust=1523410246100000&usg=AFQjCNFCvDvZnOY-G9rJ7ZVoTzwktwHWNw" href="https://www.ecoshock.org/2018/03/hail-mary-to-save-the-climate.html" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">Here is an interview with Ken Caldera</a>, where he explains his view. Basically, he finds that there are certain times when the wind doesn't blow and the sun doesn't shine. Jacobson assumed that more hydro could be developed to provide backup during those times. Caldera and his co authors concluded that most of the good hydro sites had already been developed and further expansion would be minimal. They conclude that 100% renewable power is not achievable, and that only 80% could be supplied reliably. Calderra notes in the interview that the batteries currently used by TESLA, and used in Australia and Puerto Rico are useful to make up for short term power losses, including overnight , but that they are not able to handle other longer term events (several weeks). Arguably these could be handles by massively overbuilding the wind and solar facilities, but in Caldera's view, it would be cost prohibitive.</div>
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Here is the paper, <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=http://pubs.rsc.org/en/Content/ArticleLanding/2018/EE/C7EE03029K%23!divAbstract&source=gmail&ust=1523410246100000&usg=AFQjCNH1PmPRoXML05aMAskaJ27P4JBFeQ" href="http://pubs.rsc.org/en/Content/ArticleLanding/2018/EE/C7EE03029K#!divAbstract" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">Geophysical constraints on the reliability of solar and wind power in the United States</a></div>
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: nyt-imperial, georgia, "times new roman", times, serif; font-size: 18px;"><span style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.79); font-family: museo_sans300, museo-sans; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: -0.32px;">'We analyze 36 years of global, hourly weather data (1980–2015) to quantify the covariability of solar and wind resources as a function of time and location, over multi-decadal time scales and up to continental length scales. Assuming minimal excess generation, lossless transmission, and no other generation sources, the analysis indicates that wind-heavy or solar-heavy U.S.-scale power generation portfolios could in principle provide ∼80% of recent total annual U.S. electricity demand.</span><span style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.79); font-family: museo_sans300, museo-sans; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: -0.32px;"><b> However, to reliably meet 100% of total annual electricity demand, seasonal cycles and unpredictable weather events require several weeks’ worth of energy storage and/or the installation of much more capacity of solar and wind power than is routinely necessary to meet peak demand. </b></span><span style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.79); font-family: museo_sans300, museo-sans; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: -0.32px;">To obtain ∼80% reliability, solar-heavy wind/solar generation mixes require sufficient energy storage to overcome the daily solar cycle, whereas wind-heavy wind/solar generation mixes require continental-scale transmission to exploit the geographic diversity of wind. Policy and planning aimed at providing a reliable electricity supply must therefore rigorously consider constraints associated with the geophysical variability of the solar and wind resource—even over continental scales.</span></span></div>
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Of course, there are many ways to be unsustainable. At least seven according to the study mentioned above One way, is to emit carbon dioxide. Any carbon dioxide</div>
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: nyt-imperial, georgia, "times new roman", times, serif; font-size: 18px;"> Basically, we have already emitted all the CO2 that we can afford. The nations of the world agreed in Paris that 1.5 degrees was too dangerous . And there is no budget left for that . in fact it is likely that we have used up the budget for 2 degrees. As discussed <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=https://testing-tred.postcarbon.org/stories/2018-02-02/quantifying-faustian-bargain-fossil-fuels/&source=gmail&ust=1523410246100000&usg=AFQjCNGhgXPgqvykwJIUCW9pGrOTi5xRuw" href="https://testing-tred.postcarbon.org/stories/2018-02-02/quantifying-faustian-bargain-fossil-fuels/" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">here</a>, <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2017GL076079&source=gmail&ust=1523410246101000&usg=AFQjCNHVp9Z1dYYyMNE-KLO5-5q6Q8s7Ug" href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2017GL076079" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank"> recent studies</a> indicate that , thanks to <span style="color: #141414; font-family: Montserrat, sans-serif; font-size: 16px;"> reflective sulphate pollutants (aerosols) produced from the dirty burning of coal, </span> 2 degrees is basically "baked in" , even if we stopped all CO2 tomorrow</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: nyt-imperial, georgia, "times new roman", times, serif; font-size: 18px;"><span style="color: #141414; font-family: Montserrat, sans-serif; font-size: 16px;">In other words, going to zero emissions with CO2 at ~420ppm would result in a warming of around 2°C at equilibrium, if the level of short-lived gases was constant. Not going to zero emissions would be worse in the short term: other recent work </span><a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=http://www.pnas.org/content/114/39/10315.full&source=gmail&ust=1523410246101000&usg=AFQjCNF6bNKKEopNjdSSuIVatvojCiwgtQ" href="http://www.pnas.org/content/114/39/10315.full" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #009bc5; font-family: Montserrat, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">shows</a><span style="color: #141414; font-family: Montserrat, sans-serif; font-size: 16px;"> warming would be 2.2-2.4°C by 2050 if we continue on the current high-emissions path.</span></span></div>
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<span style="color: #141414; font-family: Montserrat, sans-serif; font-size: 16px;">And there is a consensus that 2 degrees is no longer a global warming guard rail. see <a href="https://www.blogger.com/null">here</a></span><br />
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“Limiting global warming to two degrees Celsius will not prevent destructive and deadly climate impacts, as once hoped, dozens of experts concluded in a score of scientific studies released Monday…With only one degree of warming so far, Earth has seen a crescendo of droughts, heatwaves, and storms ramped up by rising seas. Voluntary national pledges made under the Paris pact to cut CO2 emissions, if fulfilled, would yield a 3C world at best.</div>
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It's hard to grasp how quickly things a re changing<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=https://grist.org/article/climate-sciences-official-text-is-outdated-heres-what-its-missing/&source=gmail&ust=1523410246101000&usg=AFQjCNEzaBhzxvtyyMSg2Kg4hCgp6V6Ojw" href="https://grist.org/article/climate-sciences-official-text-is-outdated-heres-what-its-missing/" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">. An interesting article from. Eric Holthaus, </a>notes that the last official report of the IPCC came out in 2013, and its already out of date.</div>
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The climate models used in these reports grow old in a hurry. Since the 1970s, they’ve <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-how-well-have-climate-models-projected-global-warming&source=gmail&ust=1523410246101000&usg=AFQjCNFLRiPbGAOs4ktohzzVDf0P2cPG2A" href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-how-well-have-climate-models-projected-global-warming" rel="noreferrer" style="background-color: transparent; border-bottom: 0.0625rem solid rgb(148, 168, 183); color: #054a61; line-height: inherit; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">routinely underestimated the rate of global warming</a>. Some of the most recent comprehensive assessments of climate science, including<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=https://grist.org/article/an-attempt-to-avert-trumps-interference-in-climate-science-might-actually-invite-it/&source=gmail&ust=1523410246101000&usg=AFQjCNELLKZqcXQ89XYzWuD3QiIj8fbA3w" href="https://grist.org/article/an-attempt-to-avert-trumps-interference-in-climate-science-might-actually-invite-it/" rel="noreferrer" style="background-color: transparent; border-bottom: 0.0625rem solid rgb(148, 168, 183); color: #054a61; line-height: inherit; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank"> last year’s congressionally-mandated, White House-approved, Climate Science Special Report</a>, include scary new sections on “<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/11/12/120202&source=gmail&ust=1523410246101000&usg=AFQjCNEqHSoXrx-eLlfE5mvD_E-o8gZE-w" href="http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/11/12/120202" rel="noreferrer" style="background-color: transparent; border-bottom: 0.0625rem solid rgb(148, 168, 183); color: #054a61; line-height: inherit; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">climate surprises</a>” like simultaneous droughts and hurricanes, that have wide-reaching consequences. .....</div>
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“Positive feedbacks (self-reinforcing cycles) within the climate system have the potential to accelerate human-induced climate change,” says<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=https://science2017.globalchange.gov/chapter/15/&source=gmail&ust=1523410246101000&usg=AFQjCNE5J2viNKFdgEsg2PvxP4AlqY7ZpA" href="https://science2017.globalchange.gov/chapter/15/" rel="noreferrer" style="background-color: transparent; border-bottom: 0.0625rem solid rgb(148, 168, 183); color: #054a61; line-height: inherit; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank"> a section from that Climate Science Special report</a>, “and even shift the Earth’s climate system, in part or in whole, into new states that are very different from those experienced in the recent past.” None of this was included in the last IPCC report."</div>
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"Actually, a helluva <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=https://royalsociety.org/~/media/policy/Publications/2017/27-11-2017-Climate-change-updates-report.pdf&source=gmail&ust=1523410246101000&usg=AFQjCNHCvaCttNLKvc0RcAsUkbuR8gYLrw" href="https://royalsociety.org/~/media/policy/Publications/2017/27-11-2017-Climate-change-updates-report.pdf" rel="noreferrer" style="background-color: transparent; border-bottom: 0.0625rem solid rgb(148, 168, 183); color: #054a61; line-height: inherit; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">lot has changed</a> in our understanding of the Earth’s climate system since the 2013 IPCC report. Here are some of the highlights:</div>
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<li style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-weight: 700; line-height: inherit;">Sea-level rise is going to be much worse than we thought. </span>Like, potentially a lot worse. In the last IPCC assessment, the worst case scenario for sea-level rise this century <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Projections-of-global-mean-sea-level-rise-over-the-21st-century-relative-to-1986-2005_fig2_318134739&source=gmail&ust=1523410246101000&usg=AFQjCNEcIWL-q9mrcBPm4WjIP9BtRMOoXA" href="https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Projections-of-global-mean-sea-level-rise-over-the-21st-century-relative-to-1986-2005_fig2_318134739" rel="noreferrer" style="background-color: transparent; border-bottom: 0.0625rem solid rgb(148, 168, 183); color: #054a61; line-height: inherit; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">was about three feet</a>. That’s now about the midpoint of what’s expected; the worst-case <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=https://grist.org/briefly/coastal-cities-are-in-serious-jeopardy-new-sea-level-rise-study-shows/&source=gmail&ust=1523410246101000&usg=AFQjCNEIby70wVMU9aMaOqb3GDpERJrjcw" href="https://grist.org/briefly/coastal-cities-are-in-serious-jeopardy-new-sea-level-rise-study-shows/" rel="noreferrer" style="background-color: transparent; border-bottom: 0.0625rem solid rgb(148, 168, 183); color: #054a61; line-height: inherit; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">has ballooned to about eight feet</a>. That’s largely because …</li>
<li style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">Antarctica’s massive ice sheets could collapse much more quickly than we thought. Newly discovered mechanisms of collapse in some of the planet’s largest and most vulnerable glaciers in the West Antarctic Ice Sheet are beginning to capture the attention of the scientific community. Should these mechanisms kick in over the next few decades, <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=https://grist.org/article/antarctica-doomsday-glaciers-could-flood-coastal-cities/&source=gmail&ust=1523410246101000&usg=AFQjCNHJQAvA6cK9ajqYWbUKhi2tJDi1zQ" href="https://grist.org/article/antarctica-doomsday-glaciers-could-flood-coastal-cities/" rel="noreferrer" style="background-color: transparent; border-bottom: 0.0625rem solid rgb(148, 168, 183); color: #054a61; line-height: inherit; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">they’d unleash enough meltwater to flood every coastal city on Earth</a>.</li>
<li style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">Extreme weather is here and can now be linked to climate change in real time.From the Arctic to the tropics, wildfires, intense storms and other extreme weather events have been increasingly fierce in recent years, and climate change has played a measurable role. A <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=https://www.nap.edu/read/21852/chapter/1&source=gmail&ust=1523410246101000&usg=AFQjCNFlRXu8tiANEHuO9WnQt9ztM6_dtg" href="https://www.nap.edu/read/21852/chapter/1" rel="noreferrer" style="background-color: transparent; border-bottom: 0.0625rem solid rgb(148, 168, 183); color: #054a61; line-height: inherit; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">2016 report</a> from the National Academies of Sciences opened the floodgates, so to speak, of the burgeoning field of <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=https://grist.org/article/climate-change-made-hurricane-harvey-wetter-heres-how-we-know/&source=gmail&ust=1523410246101000&usg=AFQjCNEzXFejkgHzUVov3h6C75vUcAFwUA" href="https://grist.org/article/climate-change-made-hurricane-harvey-wetter-heres-how-we-know/" rel="noreferrer" style="background-color: transparent; border-bottom: 0.0625rem solid rgb(148, 168, 183); color: #054a61; line-height: inherit; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">extreme weather attribution</a>. From <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/13/climate/hurricane-harvey-climate-change.html&source=gmail&ust=1523410246101000&usg=AFQjCNEUlV6kyT0_Fk-HeFdGfNLoVcNfmQ" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/13/climate/hurricane-harvey-climate-change.html" rel="noreferrer" style="background-color: transparent; border-bottom: 0.0625rem solid rgb(148, 168, 183); color: #054a61; line-height: inherit; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">last year’s Hurricane Harvey</a> to <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=https://grist.org/article/boston-noreaster-hurricane-like-winter-bomb-cyclone/&source=gmail&ust=1523410246101000&usg=AFQjCNEEa7UrQYqqCIzPrV-TrOEJgUlwEg" href="https://grist.org/article/boston-noreaster-hurricane-like-winter-bomb-cyclone/" rel="noreferrer" style="background-color: transparent; border-bottom: 0.0625rem solid rgb(148, 168, 183); color: #054a61; line-height: inherit; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">last month’s nor’easter-linked floods</a> in Massachusetts, nearly every weather event now bears a traceable connection to human-caused climate change.</li>
<li style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">Global warming of 1.5 degrees Celsius is pretty much locked in. A forthcoming special report of the IPCC will say that meeting the 1.5-degree target — one of the most ambitious commitments of the Paris Agreement — <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=http://www.dw.com/en/15c-degree-goal-extremely-unlikely-ipcc/a-42154601&source=gmail&ust=1523410246101000&usg=AFQjCNF2uv907pPPDPFwkmiaIfL0i5aw2A" href="http://www.dw.com/en/15c-degree-goal-extremely-unlikely-ipcc/a-42154601" rel="noreferrer" style="background-color: transparent; border-bottom: 0.0625rem solid rgb(148, 168, 183); color: #054a61; line-height: inherit; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">looks “extremely unlikely.”</a> Humanity’s shift to zero-carbon energy sources is moving <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=https://www.technologyreview.com/s/610457/at-this-rate-its-going-to-take-nearly-400-years-to-transform-the-energy-system/&source=gmail&ust=1523410246101000&usg=AFQjCNGUKSzXrKZKQWyoEaYKVfSMdG1z4g" href="https://www.technologyreview.com/s/610457/at-this-rate-its-going-to-take-nearly-400-years-to-transform-the-energy-system/" rel="noreferrer" style="background-color: transparent; border-bottom: 0.0625rem solid rgb(148, 168, 183); color: #054a61; line-height: inherit; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">about 10 times too slowly</a>. At this point, it would <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=https://grist.org/article/geoengineering-climate-change-air-pollution-save-planet/&source=gmail&ust=1523410246101000&usg=AFQjCNHwGvBjo09uSe6k5P-v29CoxkwCkQ" href="https://grist.org/article/geoengineering-climate-change-air-pollution-save-planet/" rel="noreferrer" style="background-color: transparent; border-bottom: 0.0625rem solid rgb(148, 168, 183); color: #054a61; line-height: inherit; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">probably take geoengineering to prevent it</a>. Researchers <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=https://www.technologyreview.com/s/604081/the-growing-case-for-geoengineering/&source=gmail&ust=1523410246101000&usg=AFQjCNF-p2FMOlDbl-Co7lJK_l18zstTqw" href="https://www.technologyreview.com/s/604081/the-growing-case-for-geoengineering/" rel="noreferrer" style="background-color: transparent; border-bottom: 0.0625rem solid rgb(148, 168, 183); color: #054a61; line-height: inherit; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">have started testing ways</a> to do that.</li>
<li style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">We’ve already lost entire ecosystems, most notably coral reefs. During a record-breaking El Niño event in 2015, the world lost massive swaths of coral in a global bleaching event “<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=http://time.com/coral/&source=gmail&ust=1523410246101000&usg=AFQjCNHTT9e5muhF09_54uHYJkx4GP15ZQ" href="http://time.com/coral/" rel="noreferrer" style="background-color: transparent; border-bottom: 0.0625rem solid rgb(148, 168, 183); color: #054a61; line-height: inherit; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">unlike anything we’ve ever seen before</a>.” More than <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=https://www.independent.co.uk/environment/environment-90-percent-coral-reefs-die-2050-climate-change-bleaching-pollution-a7626911.html&source=gmail&ust=1523410246101000&usg=AFQjCNG89_leUUo45y0fYWO_krAkeAwzfw" href="https://www.independent.co.uk/environment/environment-90-percent-coral-reefs-die-2050-climate-change-bleaching-pollution-a7626911.html" rel="noreferrer" style="background-color: transparent; border-bottom: 0.0625rem solid rgb(148, 168, 183); color: #054a61; line-height: inherit; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">90 percent of the world’s coral will surely die by 2050</a> without rapid emissions reductions. That means one of the richest stores of biodiversity on the planet is already in jeopardy.</li>
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So, where does that leave us?</div>
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<span style="font-family: open sans, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 17px;"><a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=https://jembendell.wordpress.com/2016/11/&source=gmail&ust=1523410246101000&usg=AFQjCNFE1lw3f_eSu608NAUe-IMkB1tlCQ" href="https://jembendell.wordpress.com/2016/11/" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">Professor Jem Bendell suggests</a> that we have moved into a new world. In the old world, one could hope that if we were to just live "sustainably" we could hope to stop dangerous climate change. Now, that appraoch is no longer an option. Sustainability, whatever its beefits, will not stop dangerous climate change. Bendell pulls no punchs in describing what the future looks like "</span></span><span style="background-color: #fafcff; color: #2a2a2a; font-family: Verdana, Tahoma, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10.944px;"> </span><span style="background-color: #fafcff; color: #2a2a2a; font-family: Verdana, Tahoma, Arial, sans-serif;">we are set for disruptive and uncontrollable levels of climate change, bringing starvation, destruction, migration, disease and war."</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: #fafcff; color: #2a2a2a; font-family: Verdana, Tahoma, Arial, sans-serif;"> He suggest a new approach is needed, one he calls "deep adaptation"</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: #fafcff; color: #2a2a2a; font-family: Verdana, Tahoma, Arial, sans-serif;">A deep adaption agenda will involve increasing resilience, relinquishment and restoration</span><span style="color: #2a2a2a; font-family: Verdana, Tahoma, Arial, sans-serif;"> </span><strong style="color: #2a2a2a; font-family: Verdana, Tahoma, Arial, sans-serif;">Resilience</strong><span style="color: #2a2a2a; font-family: Verdana, Tahoma, Arial, sans-serif;"> </span><span style="background-color: #fafcff; color: #2a2a2a; font-family: Verdana, Tahoma, Arial, sans-serif;">involve<wbr></wbr>s people and communities better coping with disruptions. Examples include how river catchments can better cope with rains, or how buildings can better cope with floods. What I’m calling</span><span style="color: #2a2a2a; font-family: Verdana, Tahoma, Arial, sans-serif;"> </span><strong style="color: #2a2a2a; font-family: Verdana, Tahoma, Arial, sans-serif;">relinquishment,</strong><span style="color: #2a2a2a; font-family: Verdana, Tahoma, Arial, sans-serif;"> </span><span style="background-color: #fafcff; color: #2a2a2a; font-family: Verdana, Tahoma, Arial, sans-serif;">involv<wbr></wbr>es people and communities letting go of certain assets, behaviours and beliefs where retaining them could make matters worse. Examples include withdrawing from coastlines or giving up expectations for certain types of consumption.</span><span style="color: #2a2a2a; font-family: Verdana, Tahoma, Arial, sans-serif;"> </span><strong style="color: #2a2a2a; font-family: Verdana, Tahoma, Arial, sans-serif;">Restoration</strong><span style="color: #2a2a2a; font-family: Verdana, Tahoma, Arial, sans-serif;"> </span><span style="background-color: #fafcff; color: #2a2a2a; font-family: Verdana, Tahoma, Arial, sans-serif;">invol<wbr></wbr>ves people and communities rediscovering attitudes and approaches to life and organisation that the hydrocarbon-fuelled civilisation eroded. Examples include re-wilding landscapes so they provide more ecological benefits and require less management, or increased community-level productivity and support.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: open sans, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 17px;">See also <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=https://muse.jhu.edu/book/56945&source=gmail&ust=1523410246101000&usg=AFQjCNFh31vZbP3XQRx_BmNpIAGobIqLQw" href="https://muse.jhu.edu/book/56945" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">The End of Sustainability</a></span></span></div>
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The difference between a sustainability approach and one based on resilience can be seen this way.</div>
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Sustainability starts with a functioning system, and then looks at how long that system can operate without wearing down. It also takes into consideration how a system’s component functions can be improved so that the system can run continuously on its own.</div>
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Resilience starts with a disaster, and then looks at how to clean up afterward. It then considers how to prevent or minimize a future disaster, or at least minimize the negative effects of the disaster. The end result may or may not be sustainable, although a sustainable outcome is ideal.</div>
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Generally, many of us take the implicit view that we can "have it all" - material progress for billions, as well as an intact ecosystem, perhaps through "sustainable development", perhaps through some other mechanism (degrowth?) But is it a hope, a dogma, or merely an assumption? An illusion? What happens if we come to the conclusion that it isn't so? </div>
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Here is some interesting food for thought.</div>
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<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=https://www.greenhousethinktank.org/uploads/4/8/3/2/48324387/paris_-_final2.pdf&source=gmail&ust=1523410246101000&usg=AFQjCNHJFS4dUPQ4PUDIOX818Oncjtr31w" href="https://www.greenhousethinktank.org/uploads/4/8/3/2/48324387/paris_-_final2.pdf" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">Paris: Optimism, Pessimism, and Realism</a></div>
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<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=https://www.greenhousethinktank.org/facing-up-to-climate-reality.html&source=gmail&ust=1523410246101000&usg=AFQjCNF0ZogCZzXsUQDoI-O_8T7fyqozwQ" href="https://www.greenhousethinktank.org/facing-up-to-climate-reality.html" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">Towards Deep Hope</a></div>
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As for me, I find I do my best thinking with my hands dirty. Back to the garden!</div>
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Walterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18048738723369282833noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1190362411119958387.post-80963105611239947442018-03-05T14:49:00.001-08:002018-03-05T14:49:02.534-08:00Teach your children well<div dir="auto">
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Sweet child of mine.</div>
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- Guns and Roses</div>
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Greetings</div>
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I just watched N<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=http://www.themonkeytrap.us/wep2018-tv-energy-money-and-technology-from-the-lens-of-the-superorganism&source=gmail&ust=1520376437268000&usg=AFQjCNE1poLsptIb__HFhiUl7d-flQd7Uw" href="http://www.themonkeytrap.us/wep2018-tv-energy-money-and-technology-from-the-lens-of-the-superorganism" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">ate Hagens's latest video</a>, which is a mini version of his " Reality 101" course that he teaches at the University of Minnesota.</div>
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It's a pretty ambitious program. Here is a short description:</div>
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #1f1f1f; font-family: verdana, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14.4px;">"An intensive series of reading, lectures and discussion will cover primary/summary literature in: systems ecology, energy and natural resources, thermodynamics, history, anthropology, human behavior, neuroscience, evolutionary psychology, environmental science, sociology, economics, globalization/trade, finance/debt with an overarching goal to give students an understanding of how the modern human ecosystem really functions, and what are the opportunities and constraints facing us in the 21</span><span style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #1f1f1f; font-family: verdana, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 10.8px; height: 0px; line-height: 1; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">st</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #1f1f1f; font-family: verdana, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14.4px;"> century. </span></div>
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You can find the syllabus<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=http://energyskeptic.com/2014/university-of-minnesota-syllabus-for-hsem-2624h-sustainability-or-collapse-an-interdisciplinary-overview-of-the-human-predicament/&source=gmail&ust=1520376437268000&usg=AFQjCNE6TTiKzEzdLM9sUHhe0ytDrC5MOA" href="http://energyskeptic.com/2014/university-of-minnesota-syllabus-for-hsem-2624h-sustainability-or-collapse-an-interdisciplinary-overview-of-the-human-predicament/" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank"> here </a>(2014 version)</div>
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It seems like it might be a useful course, given how fast things are changing! </div>
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Here's a graph from<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=https://www.nature.com/articles/nature25464?WT.feed_name%3Dsubjects_climate-sciences&source=gmail&ust=1520376437268000&usg=AFQjCNF8A3gQZsPoa805bCWI6_mFUKxEkw" href="https://www.nature.com/articles/nature25464?WT.feed_name=subjects_climate-sciences" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank"> a recent pape</a>r, showing the temperature variation during the last 10,000 years. Notice the far right, the divergence in the last few years. What should we expect?</div>
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<span style="font-size: 15.4px;">Hagens assumes that we will continue on this path. which seems reasonable see<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=http://www.climatecodered.org/2018/02/quantifying-our-faustian-bargain-with.html&source=gmail&ust=1520376437268000&usg=AFQjCNEHGjfA7Y_JyFZjSjRMsUqNnrUXWA" href="http://www.climatecodered.org/2018/02/quantifying-our-faustian-bargain-with.html" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank"> this from Climate Code Red</a><a href="https://www.blogger.com/null"> </a></span></div>
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 13.2px;">It’s not that 1.5°C isn’t dangerous: in fact, at just 1–1.1°C of warming to date, climate change is already dangerous. A safe climate would be well below the present level of warming, unless you think it is OK to </span><a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=https://arxiv.org/abs/1204.5445&source=gmail&ust=1520376437268000&usg=AFQjCNHPRcWBqn9pj1p2fIdMHYwM1hSbbg" href="https://arxiv.org/abs/1204.5445" style="color: #007cbb; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 13.2px; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">destroy the Arctic ecosystem</a><span style="color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 13.2px;">, </span><a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=https://docs.wixstatic.com/ugd/148cb0_0592372f2605428a9692ded05af64e61.pdf&source=gmail&ust=1520376437268000&usg=AFQjCNEesGqDQPYwz66UBDGynJwG1YnE4Q" href="https://docs.wixstatic.com/ugd/148cb0_0592372f2605428a9692ded05af64e61.pdf" style="color: #007cbb; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 13.2px; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">tip West West </a></div>
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And <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=https://earther.com/has-the-arctic-finally-reached-a-tipping-point-1823276247&source=gmail&ust=1520376437268000&usg=AFQjCNFAqWSYuFRLF7vyxt5S1Em4qy1A-g" href="https://earther.com/has-the-arctic-finally-reached-a-tipping-point-1823276247" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">this</a> <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=https://earther.com/has-the-arctic-finally-reached-a-tipping-point-1823276247&source=gmail&ust=1520376437268000&usg=AFQjCNFAqWSYuFRLF7vyxt5S1Em4qy1A-g" href="https://earther.com/has-the-arctic-finally-reached-a-tipping-point-1823276247" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">"<span style="background-color: #f3f3f3; color: #444444; font-family: georgia, cambria, "palatino linotype", serif; font-size: 14.6667px;">Has the Arctic Finally Reached a Tipping Point?”</span></a></div>
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<span style="font-size: 14.6667px;">“‘The Holocene climate system is unraveling,’ Jason Box, an ice researcher at the Danish Meteorological Institute, told Earther in an email. ‘We should not be surprised if/when ongoing de-glaciation of the Arctic combined with global (and Arctic) atmospheric heating and humidification causes climate shifts that appear to be step changes.'</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: #f3f3f3; color: #444444; font-family: georgia, cambria, "palatino linotype", serif; font-size: 14.6667px;">"People have the misapprehension that we can recover from this [ice free] state just by reducing carbon emissions" , Anderson said in an appearance at the University of Chicago. " Recovery is all but impossible, he argued, without a World War II-style transformation of industry—an acceleration of the effort to halt carbon pollution and remove it from the atmosphere, and a new effort to reflect sunlight away from the earth’s poles.”….”This has do be done…. within the next five years.”</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 14.6667px;">“Given that all the scientific models are failing to predict the pace that climate impact’s actually having, how do you do good public policy?” he said on the sidelines of the C40’s Women4Climate conference.</span></div>
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Nearly half of the 92 cities in the C40 network saw extreme flooding last year, according to Watts, who said an “optimism bias” was built into scientific forecasts.</div>
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See also Dave Roberts on flood risk. <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2018/3/2/17070222/us-flood-risk&source=gmail&ust=1520376437268000&usg=AFQjCNHryQnHXzKqnByshFRZMCSgzKmlXQ" href="https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2018/3/2/17070222/us-flood-risk" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank"> <span style="font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">We’ve radically underestimated how vulnerable Americans are to flooding</span></a></div>
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and this :<span style="font-size: 15.4px;"> </span><a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=http://energyskeptic.com/2018/what-can-california-do-about-sea-level-rise/&source=gmail&ust=1520376437268000&usg=AFQjCNHr5sGvLUEAFQDFaOjeorlnV-yxig" href="http://energyskeptic.com/2018/what-can-california-do-about-sea-level-rise/" style="color: #1155cc; font-size: 15.4px;" target="_blank">What Can California do about sea level rise?</a></div>
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We are approaching the era of "Climate Departure", w<span style="font-size: 15.4px;">hen the climate is so different from our historical experience, as to represent something completely new. See <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=http://e360.yale.edu/features/interview_camilo_mora_where_will_earth_head_after_its_climate_departure&source=gmail&ust=1520376437268000&usg=AFQjCNEWoX2lb4gusQkkd_7LRsuHRNHNAg" href="http://e360.yale.edu/features/interview_camilo_mora_where_will_earth_head_after_its_climate_departure" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">this </a></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: #fcfaf6; font-family: ashbury, georgia, serif; font-weight: 700; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">Camilo Mora:</span><span style="background-color: #fcfaf6; font-family: ashbury, georgia, serif; font-size: 18px;"> The timing of climate departure is an index that calculated the year after which the climate will become like something that we’ve never seen. We calculated the minimum and maximum values for the historic variability in the last 150 years. And we analyzed when climate change is going to move the climate beyond those thresholds. At the broadest scale, we calculate that year, under a business as usual scenario, is going to be 2047. Basically, by the year 2047 the climate is going to move beyond something we’ve never seen in the last 150 years. </span></div>
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<span style="background-color: #fcfaf6; font-family: ashbury, georgia, serif; font-weight: 700; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">e360:</span><span style="background-color: #fcfaf6; font-family: ashbury, georgia, serif; font-size: 18px;"> The results of your analysis were startling, I think, even to you and your team. Under the scenario that assumes current emissions trends, part of Jamaica and Indonesia are just a few years away from climate departure; you predict Mexico City will experience this in 2031. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: ashbury, georgia, serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px;">See e.g.</span></span><span style="background-color: #f3f3f3; color: #444444; font-family: georgia, cambria, "palatino linotype", serif; font-size: 14.6667px;"><a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2018/02/26/north-pole-surges-above-freezing-in-the-dead-of-winter-stunning-scientists/?utm_term%3D.2ea771b73c4d&source=gmail&ust=1520376437268000&usg=AFQjCNEJDZ_0Bf_W2gaxUMmHhCezzwP5Dg" href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2018/02/26/north-pole-surges-above-freezing-in-the-dead-of-winter-stunning-scientists/?utm_term=.2ea771b73c4d" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">North Pole surges above freezing in the dead of winter”</a></span><div>
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"The sun won’t rise at the North Pole until March 20, and it’s normally close to the coldest time of year, but an extraordinary and possibly historic thaw swelled over the tip of the planet this weekend. Analyses show that the temperature warmed to the melting point as an enormous storm pumped an intense pulse of heat through the Greenland Sea.</div>
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And Carbon Capture ideas don't appear too likely, as<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/feb/01/silver-bullet-to-suck-co2-from-air-and-halt-climate-change-ruled-out&source=gmail&ust=1520376437268000&usg=AFQjCNEWKZrLHt0GXt5-2DuzLFDVy8f8og" href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/feb/01/silver-bullet-to-suck-co2-from-air-and-halt-climate-change-ruled-out" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank"> this report</a> discusses</div>
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Ways of sucking carbon dioxide from the air will not work on the vast scales needed to beat climate change, Europe’s science academies warned on Thursday.</div>
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From simply planting trees to filtering CO2 out of the air, the technologies that some hope could be a “silver bullet” in halting global warming either risk huge damage to the environment themselves or are likely to be very costly.</div>
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Virtually all the pathways laid out by the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to reach the targets in the Paris agreement require huge deployment of so-called negative emissions technologies (NETs) in the second half of the century.</div>
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This is because cuts in CO2 are expected to be too slow to hit zero emissions quickly enough, so the overshoot has to be recaptured later by NETs. The IPCC calculates that about 12bn tonnes a year will need to be captured and stored after 2050 – the equivalent of about a third of all global emissions today.</div>
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“You can rule out a silver bullet,” said Prof John Shepherd, at the University of Southampton, UK, and an author of the report. “Negative emissions technologies are very interesting but they are not an alternative to deep and rapid emissions reductions. These remain the safest and most reliable option that we have.”</div>
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The new report is from the <a class="m_4511823060279032243m_6816287762771565572gmail-u-underline" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=https://www.easac.eu/&source=gmail&ust=1520376437268000&usg=AFQjCNEx3lkS3x5EMobJ00AxJB25kdOAYw" href="https://www.easac.eu/" style="background: transparent; border-bottom: 0.0625rem solid rgb(220, 220, 220); color: #880105; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">European Academies Science Advisory Council</a>(EASAC), which advises the European Union and is comprised of the national science academies of the 28 member states. It warns that relying on NETs instead of emissions cuts could fail and result in severe global warming and “serious implications for future generations”.</div>
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In conclusion, here's a<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/mar/03/california-climate-change-fires-flood-landslide&source=gmail&ust=1520376437268000&usg=AFQjCNETR4EO6FCrIvYkEx5WAS_dkz0bhg" href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/mar/03/california-climate-change-fires-flood-landslide" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank"> postcard from tomorrow</a></div>
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"And we know now what the dread was we felt in December. Call it climate change or climate collapse, that was the Big Dread behind the smaller ones. Climate believers, climate deniers, deep in our hearts we think it will happen somewhere else. Or, in some other time, in 2025 or 2040 or next year. But we are here to tell you, in this postcard from the former paradise, that it won’t happen next year, or somewhere else. It will happen right where you live and it could happen today. No one will be spared.”</div>
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<span style="background-color: #fef9f5; color: #121212; font-family: "guardian text egyptian web", georgia, serif; font-size: small;">So, if you are driving around and flying on airplanes and ordering things to be shipped by truck and making money off oil stock the way so many of us are – like there’s no tomorrow? We are here to tell you there is a tomorrow and we are living in it.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: droid-serif, serif; font-size: small;">Hagens believes that oil production will peak in the next ten years. This view is consistent with trends over the last decade of both higher costs of production, a</span><span style="font-family: droid-serif, serif; font-size: small;">s well as a lower rate of investment in new fields see <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=https://www.wsj.com/articles/iea-says-global-oil-discoveries-at-record-low-in-2016-1493244000&source=gmail&ust=1520376437268000&usg=AFQjCNHc5Q05GYotIwhBYOLiSQ3i3SNHvw" href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/iea-says-global-oil-discoveries-at-record-low-in-2016-1493244000" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">here</a> .(</span><span style="background-color: #f6f6f6; color: #373737; font-family: "libre baskerville", serif; font-size: 15px;">Note that, this lack of investment has nothing to do with the recent decline in the oil price, which started in 2014. This has been an on-going problem for the past 30 years. Now, the IEA is predicting oil shortages by ~2020 due to declining exploration. )</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: #f6f6f6; color: #373737; font-family: "libre baskerville", serif; font-size: 15px;">For an interesting model of oil production out to 2050 see</span><a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=https://arxiv.org/abs/1601.07716&source=gmail&ust=1520376437268000&usg=AFQjCNG3NhF_72lAzbV_g9UYEfaLi4zL3Q" href="https://arxiv.org/abs/1601.07716" style="background-color: #f6f6f6; color: #1155cc; font-family: "libre baskerville", serif; font-size: 15px;" target="_blank"> here</a>. It<span style="background-color: #f6f6f6; color: #373737; font-family: "libre baskerville", serif; font-size: 15px;"> predicts a world peak at 2020</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: droid-serif, serif; font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">There is a lot of talk about "peak demand" and the associated theory that, peak supply will not be a problem, because the transportation system will have already moved on the </span>electric<span style="font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: x-small;"> vehicles. This is of course dependent on the taste at which electric vehicles are adopted. There are a number of predictions about when EV sales would have an impact on oil use. You can take your pick from 2020 (Grantham Foundation) , 2025 (Bloomberg); 2030 (World Energy Council); or 2040 (BP), see</span><a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2017/2/2/14467748/electric-vehicles-oil-market&source=gmail&ust=1520376437268000&usg=AFQjCNEBAnOpYf2GGz1e-uzU_qRj0dZO_Q" href="https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2017/2/2/14467748/electric-vehicles-oil-market" style="color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: small;" target="_blank"> here</a><span style="font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: x-small;"> </span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: droid-serif, serif; font-size: small;">As for the impact of EV's there </span>remains<span style="font-family: droid-serif, serif; font-size: small;"> some skepticism.</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: droid-serif, serif; font-size: small;"><a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/The-World-Is-Millions-Of-Barrels-Away-From-Peak-Oil.html&source=gmail&ust=1520376437269000&usg=AFQjCNH2t7XOxgI0Kn3GXFSnPJ_LM9vVgA" href="https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/The-World-Is-Millions-Of-Barrels-Away-From-Peak-Oil.html" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">Robert Rapier points out </a>that oil use continues to grow, even </span></span><span style="font-family: droid-serif, serif; font-size: small;">accelerate</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Open Sans", sans-serif; font-size: 16px;">The bottom line is that even in a best case scenario for EV growth rates, demand for oil rose by 1.6 million BPD last year, and it’s projected to increase by 1.4 million BPD this year.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: droid-serif, serif; font-size: small;"> And see <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=http://peakoil.com/consumption/the-end-of-the-oil-age-may-be-closer-but-more-uncertain&source=gmail&ust=1520376437269000&usg=AFQjCNGIBExqCGiPttc0kOdlvz4TD6JprQ" href="http://peakoil.com/consumption/the-end-of-the-oil-age-may-be-closer-but-more-uncertain" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">this </a>from IEA director, Fatih Birol</span></span></div>
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“Oil demand growth today is not driven by cars, it’s driven by trucks, planes, ships and the petrochemical industry,” the IEA’s executive</div>
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director Fatih Birol said in January. “Even if there was a big electrification of cars in the years to come, oil demand will still grow.”</div>
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Birol also points to the world’s poor track record since the 1980s on weaning itself off fossil fuels to decarbonize energy supplies.</div>
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Over the last 30 years, he said, the share of fossil fuels has not fallen from 81%.</div>
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Thus, there is no guarantee that peak demand will precede peak supply. If peak supply comes first, then the price of oil is likely to rise likely affecting economic activity. See<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=https://digitalcommons.mtu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article%3D1744%26context%3Detds&source=gmail&ust=1520376437269000&usg=AFQjCNHRQcRw4GuYd363SWOyaE9gt36puA" href="https://digitalcommons.mtu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1744&context=etds" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank"> this study</a></div>
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<span style="font-family: verdana, geneva, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 15.4px;"><span style="color: #222222; font-size: 15.4px;">When you don't know what is coming, Hagens suggest </span><span style="color: #222222; font-size: 15.4px;">resilience and flexibility.</span> And learning to live with less.</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: verdana, geneva, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 15.4px;">The "elite" apparently plan to seal themselves in their "enclaves" and tough it out. Or<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=https://www.telegraph.co.uk/science/2017/06/20/human-race-doomed-do-not-colonise-moon-mars-says-stephen-hawking/&source=gmail&ust=1520376437269000&usg=AFQjCNHKgSQAyogo-kflW1Q1thhIlQ5Gpw" href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/science/2017/06/20/human-race-doomed-do-not-colonise-moon-mars-says-stephen-hawking/" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank"> maybe Mars?</a></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: verdana, geneva, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 15.4px;">But whats about the rest of us? What about those students?</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: verdana, geneva, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 15.4px;">Its unlikely that these students can expect to live the same lifestyle as their parents. See <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=http://www.equality-of-opportunity.org/&source=gmail&ust=1520376437269000&usg=AFQjCNH0EijnhnxZmFcsEy4JU4OiSPJtRg" href="http://www.equality-of-opportunity.org/" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">here</a></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: verdana, geneva, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 15.4px;">What sort of models are available for achieving the "good life" in a sustainable manner? Are there any counties where that happens? <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=https://www.see.leeds.ac.uk/research/research-news/news-story/a-good-life-for-all-within-the-planets-means/&source=gmail&ust=1520376437269000&usg=AFQjCNFy6rZaxftPSwqE90CeN6XOk4bDzA" href="https://www.see.leeds.ac.uk/research/research-news/news-story/a-good-life-for-all-within-the-planets-means/" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank"> Not really, according to this study</a></span></span></div>
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"We examined international relationships between the sustainability of resource use and the achievement of social goals, and found that basic needs, such as nutrition, sanitation, and the elimination of extreme poverty, could most likely be achieved in all countries without exceeding global environmental limits."</div>
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"Unfortunately, the same is not true for other social goals that go beyond basic subsistence such as secondary education and high life satisfaction. Meeting these goals could require a level of resource use that is two to six times the sustainable level."</div>
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"Although wealthy nations like the US and UK satisfy the basic needs of their citizens, they do so at a level of resource use that is far beyond what is globally sustainable.</div>
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"In contrast, countries that are using resources at a sustainable level, such as Sri Lanka, fail to meet the basic needs of their people."</div>
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Among the countries doing the best job are Vietnam, with 6 social thresholds achieved and only 1 biophysical boundary transgressed, and Germany, which hits all 11 social thresholds but has exceeded 5 of the 7 biophysical boundaries.</div>
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However there is some hope: the researchers say we can make adjustments to both ensure a good quality of life for the population and avoid destroying the planet at the same time.</div>
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In other words, these feedback loops – which show better lives costing more resources – are not fixed, and we can work towards finding ways to support our population without taking too much out of what the planet can give us.</div>
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"<b>Radical changes are needed if all people are to live well within the limits of the planet</b>," <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=http://www.leeds.ac.uk/news/article/4178/a_good_life_for_all_within_the_planets_means&source=gmail&ust=1520376437269000&usg=AFQjCNGcRhN7a_HS8AbWAsBJlGy0Ccdw0g" href="http://www.leeds.ac.uk/news/article/4178/a_good_life_for_all_within_the_planets_means" style="border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(220, 220, 220); color: #005689; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">says one of the team</a>, Julia Steinberger from the University of Leeds.</div>
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"These include moving beyond the pursuit of economic growth in wealthy nations, shifting rapidly from fossil fuels to renewable energy, and significantly reducing inequality.</div>
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"Our physical infrastructure and the way we distribute resources are both part of what we call provisioning systems. If all people are to lead a good life within the planet's limits then these provisioning systems need to be fundamentally restructured to allow for basic needs to be met at a much lower level of resource use."</div>
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<span style="font-family: verdana, geneva, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">Such a "radical change " may require giving up on "time saving" devices and "conveniences", which provide more "free time" . But for what?</span><br /><blockquote style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0px 40px; padding: 0px;">
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<span style="font-family: verdana, geneva, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 15.4px;">see<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=http://www.resilience.org/stories/2018-03-01/sourdough-bread-cult-convenience/&source=gmail&ust=1520376437269000&usg=AFQjCNGXGGRAJuHxNU7oJONmtpp9HKECaA" href="http://www.resilience.org/stories/2018-03-01/sourdough-bread-cult-convenience/" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank"> The Cult of Convenience</a></span></span></div>
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Open Sans, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">So, if Hagens is right, we are likely to see more climate chaos, and we will have less resources to deal with it. </span></div>
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Open Sans, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px;">But he is not despairing. He knows this means a lower "standard of living" with less conveniences, probably with a lot more work. Less flying, less driving, less buying. But perhaps more community, more time , more neighborliness. </span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: verdana, geneva, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 15.4px;">Is there no hope? Perhaps that isn't the right question? <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=https://onbeing.org/blog/kate-marvel-we-need-courage-not-hope-to-face-climate-change&source=gmail&ust=1520376437269000&usg=AFQjCNHdyWFYHxZF_oZtFsaE2eKoQPDR3g" href="https://onbeing.org/blog/kate-marvel-we-need-courage-not-hope-to-face-climate-change" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">This climate scientist suggest that what we need now is not hope, but courage.</a></span></span></div>
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I have no hope that these changes can be reversed. We are inevitably <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=https://onbeing.org/blog/kate-marvel-we-should-never-have-called-it-earth&source=gmail&ust=1520376437269000&usg=AFQjCNENtyrgxnFDP111_R4qCjH1-ifrFw" href="https://onbeing.org/blog/kate-marvel-we-should-never-have-called-it-earth" style="border-bottom-color: rgb(0, 172, 214); border-bottom-style: solid; border-width: 0px 0px 1px; color: #00acd6; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">sending our children</a> to live on an unfamiliar planet. But the opposite of hope is not despair. It is grief. Even while resolving to limit the damage, we can mourn. And here, the sheer scale of the problem provides a perverse comfort: we are in this together. The swiftness of the change, its scale and inevitability, binds us into one, broken hearts trapped together under a warming atmosphere.</div>
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We are all fated to live lives shot through with sadness, and are not worth less for it. Courage is the resolve to do well without the assurance of a happy ending. Little molecules, random in their movement, add together to a coherent whole. Little lives do not. But <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=https://onbeing.org/blog/beyond-rio-and-halki-climate-change-may-rest-in-engaging-hearts-and-organizing-hands&source=gmail&ust=1520376437269000&usg=AFQjCNGSdFSnI9taqdZS1WtuGvsUkCD1_Q" href="https://onbeing.org/blog/beyond-rio-and-halki-climate-change-may-rest-in-engaging-hearts-and-organizing-hands" style="border-bottom-color: rgb(0, 172, 214); border-bottom-style: solid; border-width: 0px 0px 1px; color: #00acd6; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">here we are</a>, together on a planet radiating ever more into space where there is no darkness, only light we cannot see.</div>
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We need courage, not hope. Grief, after all, is the cost of being alive. We are all fated to live lives shot through with sadness, and are not worth less for it. Courage is the resolve to do well without the assurance of a happy ending. Little molecules, random in their movement, add together to a coherent whole. Little lives do not. But <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=https://onbeing.org/blog/beyond-rio-and-halki-climate-change-may-rest-in-engaging-hearts-and-organizing-hands&source=gmail&ust=1520376437269000&usg=AFQjCNGSdFSnI9taqdZS1WtuGvsUkCD1_Q" href="https://onbeing.org/blog/beyond-rio-and-halki-climate-change-may-rest-in-engaging-hearts-and-organizing-hands" style="border-bottom-color: rgb(0, 172, 214); border-bottom-style: solid; border-width: 0px 0px 1px; color: #00acd6; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">here we are</a>, together on a planet radiating ever more into space where there is no darkness, only light we cannot see.</div>
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<span style="font-family: verdana, geneva, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 15.4px;">The Post Carbon Institute (now located in Corvallis) offers a number of resources to help people deal with our future. Besides books such as the <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=http://www.resilience.org/resources/community-resilience-reader/&source=gmail&ust=1520376437269000&usg=AFQjCNFY6fWuofLbAB9CJLIfLTwv9X53WA" href="http://www.resilience.org/resources/community-resilience-reader/" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">Community Resilience Reader</a>,</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: verdana, geneva, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 15.4px;"><span style="color: #141414; font-family: Montserrat, sans-serif; font-size: 16px;">National and global efforts have failed to stop climate change, transition from fossil fuels, and reduce inequality. We must now confront these and other increasingly complex problems by building resilience at the community level. The Community Resilience Reader combines a fresh look at the challenges humanity faces in the 21st century, the essential tools of resilience science, and the wisdom of activists, scholars, and analysts working with community issues on the ground. It shows that resilience is a process, not a goal; that resilience requires learning to adapt but also preparing to transform; and that resilience starts and ends with the people living in a community.</span></span></span></div>
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<span style="color: #141414; font-family: Montserrat, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">PCI also offers on line courses such as<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=http://www.resilience.org/think-resilience/&source=gmail&ust=1520376437269000&usg=AFQjCNGQUbUGHg34XYKgw0e8mUmMCRCpcQ" href="http://www.resilience.org/think-resilience/" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank"> Think Resilience:Preparing Communities for the Rest of the 21st Century</a></span></span><br />
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Post Carbon Institute Senior Fellow Richard Heinberg sat down to deliver a 22-chapter lecture series entitled “<span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: initial; font-weight: 700;">Think Resilience: Preparing Communities for the Rest of the 21st Century</span>,” which explores how communities can build resilience in the face of our intertwined sustainability crises. The series is intended for students and concerned individuals of all ages.</div>
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New chapters will be rolled out on a regular basis over the coming weeks, but you can also sign up to view all the videos right away or watch them as part of an online, interactive course taught by Richard Heinberg himself.</div>
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Walterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18048738723369282833noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1190362411119958387.post-15228124247886329562018-02-05T14:25:00.000-08:002018-02-05T14:25:37.003-08:00Climate Hawks<br />
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Did you ever have to make up your mind?</div>
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-Loving Spoonful</div>
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Forty thousand head men </div>
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couldn't make me change my mind.</div>
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-Traffic</div>
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Greetings</div>
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I'm going to start off with public service announcement</div>
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<b>The Clean Energy Jobs Bill is back before the legislature.</b></div>
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The bill will lower Oregon’s greenhouse gas emissions by adopting a cap, trade, and invest plan — we will cap greenhouse gas emissions from major sources, trade emission permits to allow maximum market efficiency in reducing carbon pollution, and invest proceeds to help Oregon transition to a greener, cleaner future. You can learn about the bill and join the fight to protect our future in two ways:</div>
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For those who want to <b>learn more</b> about the CEJ Bill<b>before Lobby Day:</b></div>
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On<b> Monday,</b> <b>Feb 5</b> at 3 PM the <b>Joint Environmental and Energy and Natural Resources </b>Committees will roll out the CEJ Bill<b>with an Informational Meeting</b> in Room F at the Capitol.</div>
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and on <b>Wed</b>, <b>Feb 7</b> at 3 PM the same Joint Committee will hold<b> a Public Hearing</b> regarding the bill in Room F.</div>
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and you can j<b style="font-size: 12.8px;">oin your friends from the Oregon League of Conservation Voters and Renew Oregon at the Clean Energy Jobs LOBBY DAY at the State Capitol on </b><span style="font-size: 12.8px; text-decoration-line: underline;"><b><span class="aBn" data-term="goog_1169448359" style="border-bottom: 1px dashed rgb(204, 204, 204); position: relative; top: -2px; z-index: 0;" tabindex="0"><span class="aQJ" style="position: relative; top: 2px; z-index: -1;">Monday, Feb. 12</span></span>.</b></span><span style="font-size: 12.8px;"> </span><span style="font-size: 12px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></div>
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It may be a good idea to put this bill in perspective. What can we hope to achieve? What would we have to give up to get there? Dave Roberts, a clear eyed "climate hawk" displays what he sees as the best case scenario, as part of an article chiding environmentalists for getting in the way of implementing climate policy. see <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2018/1/27/16935382/climate-change-ugly-tradeoffs&source=gmail&ust=1517955634934000&usg=AFQjCNHJJDU2SusKnSp43HD_CLQNl_o_uw" href="https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2018/1/27/16935382/climate-change-ugly-tradeoffs" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank"> Reckoning with Climate Change will demand ugly trade offs from environmentalists and everyone else</a> . He says we can't meet our 2 degree target using solar and wind alone. We also will need nuclear power, more dams, and loads of transmission lines running across sensitive habitats.</div>
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Mostly its because we waited so long, so we missed the gradual ramp down see e.g.</div>
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Implications for limiting warming to 2C</div>
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Here's what Roberts says it would take. </div>
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It would mean an <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=https://www.vox.com/2016/8/18/12507810/climate-change-world-war&source=gmail&ust=1517955634934000&usg=AFQjCNEqbIsaAEl9fw0N9DlO1spWzRAT-w" href="https://www.vox.com/2016/8/18/12507810/climate-change-world-war" style="color: #4f7177; font-weight: 700; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">immediate, sustained global mobilization</a> of a sort that has no precedent in human history.</div>
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If something like that mobilization were to happen, it would not be gentle or pretty. It would not unfold according to the best-laid plans of wonks. Some people, landscapes, and legitimately worthwhile priorities would suffer in the short- to mid-term.</div>
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One example: environmentalists often cite studies showing that high penetrations of renewables are possible in the US. But those studies all show that achieving high penetrations requires a country-spanning network of new transmission lines. If there’s a study showing how to fully decarbonize without tons of new transmission, I haven’t seen it. So yes, transmission lines connecting zero-carbon power sources and loads might disrupt some people and ecosystems, but systematically opposing them simply isn’t commensurate with being a climate hawk.</div>
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Another example: full decarbonization would require, among other things, an <em>enormous</em> industrial shift. Tens, maybe hundreds of thousands of jobs in polluting industries would be wiped out and workers displaced. There would be new jobs in clean energy, but the US has not typically handled such workforce transitions well. Being a climate hawk means accepting serious social and economic disruption.</div>
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Decarbonization will also involve a mind-boggling amount of manufacturing, building, and retrofitting. Multiple solar and wind gigafactories would be built every year. Renewables would cover every open surface. Every city would be as dense and transit-served as possible. Being a climate hawk means accepting that some natural areas will be turned over to energy production and that “the character of the neighborhood” is going to be disrupted by infill and multi-modal transportation systems.</div>
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Conservative climate hawks may have to tolerate climate solutions that involve heavy government intervention. Farmer climate hawks may have to tolerate swaths of their land being claimed for transmission lines or wind turbines. Wealthy climate hawks may have to tolerate restrictions on their consumer purchases or airline travel. Environmentalist climate hawks may have to tolerate large-scale carbon sequestration or new rivers given over to dams. And so on.</div>
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This is the future Roberts suggests that we need. I am reminded of the "Chinese miracle". New factories, new industries. Forward !</div>
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So, lets put this activity in context. How are we doing with respect to overshoot?<span style="color: #222222; font-family: sans-serif;"> It just so happens that 15,000 scientists in 184 countries recently issued a report :</span><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "open sans", "helvetica neue", helvetica, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px;"><a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2017-11/osu-1si110617.php&source=gmail&ust=1517955634934000&usg=AFQjCNHx5uCWnJ3ckKjzHFbYy2cDq_zSEA" href="https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2017-11/osu-1si110617.php" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">World Scientists' Warning to Humanity: A Second Notice" </a> </span><span style="color: #222222; font-family: sans-serif;">which noted the a number of deteriorating trends</span></div>
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "open sans", "helvetica neue", helvetica, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px;">Among the negative 25-year global trends noted in the article are:</span></div>
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<li style="margin-left: 15px;">A collective 29 percent reduction in the numbers of mammals, reptiles, amphibians, birds and fish</li>
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So, Robert's prescription would make some of those things worse. But perhaps the additional impacts would be offset by the reduced impacts of climate change on the biosphere?</div>
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Well......no. It turns out that climate change has had very little impact on species extinction. This great extinction is bring caused by the ordinary things that humans do. <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=http://www.nature.com/news/biodiversity-the-ravages-of-guns-nets-and-bulldozers-1.20381?WT.mc_id%3DTWT_NatureNews&source=gmail&ust=1517955634934000&usg=AFQjCNEwB6raeGOcQ_droAoKJxy608rvCg" href="http://www.nature.com/news/biodiversity-the-ravages-of-guns-nets-and-bulldozers-1.20381?WT.mc_id=TWT_NatureNews" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank"> A rece</a><span style="font-family: sans-serif;"><a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=http://www.nature.com/news/biodiversity-the-ravages-of-guns-nets-and-bulldozers-1.20381?WT.mc_id%3DTWT_NatureNews&source=gmail&ust=1517955634934000&usg=AFQjCNEwB6raeGOcQ_droAoKJxy608rvCg" href="http://www.nature.com/news/biodiversity-the-ravages-of-guns-nets-and-bulldozers-1.20381?WT.mc_id=TWT_NatureNews" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">nt article in Nature</a> points out that main cause of species extinction is over consumption - logging, fishing, agriculture, urban expansion, and pollution are the real culprits. In fact climate change ranks very low. see <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=https://www.zmescience.com/ecology/resources-climate-59447/&source=gmail&ust=1517955634935000&usg=AFQjCNEm3LpgX9Uln56omh4cceQKZWhzbg" href="https://www.zmescience.com/ecology/resources-climate-59447/" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">here</a></span></div>
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But even though climate change is going to have a very powerful impact on <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=https://www.zmescience.com/ecology/douglas-fir-heat-059292/&source=gmail&ust=1517955634935000&usg=AFQjCNGJEixeOvxx9qBGl5lWE5qxjmE0_g" href="https://www.zmescience.com/ecology/douglas-fir-heat-059292/" style="background-color: transparent; color: #9b59b6;" target="_blank">plants </a>and <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=https://www.zmescience.com/ecology/climate/bacteria-oceans-global-warming/&source=gmail&ust=1517955634935000&usg=AFQjCNFoMsKVXgjxMawT4v4fMH7xjqLzzw" href="https://www.zmescience.com/ecology/climate/bacteria-oceans-global-warming/" style="background-color: transparent; color: #9b59b6;" target="_blank">wildlife </a>world-w<wbr></wbr>ide, climate change has also become a sort of scape-goat, with a “growing tendency for media reports about threats to biodiversity to focus on climate change,” write the authors of a new study analyzing the impact each sector of our society has on life on Earth. According to their findings, the real culprits are staple human activities such as <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=https://www.zmescience.com/ecology/animals-ecology/artificial-intelligence-poaching-logging/&source=gmail&ust=1517955634935000&usg=AFQjCNGLILll2Wzb-QcaO3zvMuorstH5EQ" href="https://www.zmescience.com/ecology/animals-ecology/artificial-intelligence-poaching-logging/" style="background-color: transparent; color: #9b59b6;" target="_blank">logging</a>, hunting, or farming, which pose a far greater — and much more immediate — danger to Earth’s <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=https://www.zmescience.com/science/diversity-is-down-58154/&source=gmail&ust=1517955634935000&usg=AFQjCNEsOF02M2kuhvIyh7wHKF4TcsF-aw" href="https://www.zmescience.com/science/diversity-is-down-58154/" style="background-color: transparent; color: #9b59b6;" target="_blank">biodiversity</a>.</div>
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“[Agriculture and rampant resource over-exploitation are] by far the biggest drivers of biodiversity decline,” the authors write in a comment published <span class="aBn" data-term="goog_1169448360" style="border-bottom: 1px dashed rgb(204, 204, 204); position: relative; top: -2px; z-index: 0;" tabindex="0"><span class="aQJ" style="position: relative; top: 2px; z-index: -1;">Wednesday</span></span> in the journal Nature.</div>
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A team of scientists led by University of Queensland doctoral student Sean Maxwell analyzed thousands of species on the International Union for Conservation of Nature’s Red List of Threatened Species to determine exactly what we’re doing to put them on that list.</div>
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They found that <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=https://www.zmescience.com/science/august-overshoot-59042/&source=gmail&ust=1517955634935000&usg=AFQjCNGpP6hYNb0NK2dpByCvq-Wmm_RUwA" href="https://www.zmescience.com/science/august-overshoot-59042/" style="background-color: transparent; color: #9b59b6;" target="_blank">over-exploitation</a>, including logging, hunting, fishing and the gathering of plants is the biggest single killer of biodiversity, directly impacting 72 percent of the 8,688 species listed as threatened or near-threatened by the IUCN. Agricultural activity comes second, affecting 62 percent of those species, followed by urban development and pollution which threaten 35 and 22 percent respectively. Species such as the African cheetah and Asia’s hairy-noes otter are among the 5,407 species that find themselves threatened by agricultural practices, while illegal hunting impacts several populations such as the Sumatran rhino and African elephant.</div>
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Climate change on the other hand comes in on a surprising, if somewhat unimpressive, 7th place in the 11 threats identified by the team. Even when you combine all its effects, it currently threatens just 19 percent of the species on the list, the team reports. </div>
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So add to that Robert's prescription of a " .....<span style="color: #4c4e4d; font-family: balto, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: x-small;"> mind-boggling amount of manufacturing, building, and retrofitting. Multiple solar and wind gigafactories would be built every year. Renewables would cover every open surface" </span></div>
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<span style="color: #4c4e4d; font-family: balto, helvetica, sans-serif;">Of course, the alternative of doing nothing is much worse. </span><span style="font-family: sans-serif;"><a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=http://www.resilience.org/stories/2018-02-02/quantifying-faustian-bargain-fossil-fuels/&source=gmail&ust=1517955634935000&usg=AFQjCNF7pt536x6Uz-96IOKWjUaVrflUvw" href="http://www.resilience.org/stories/2018-02-02/quantifying-faustian-bargain-fossil-fuels/" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">A recent article by David Spratt,</a> author of Climate Code Red, puts the possible futures in perspective</span></div>
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<span style="color: #141414; font-family: montserrat, sans-serif; font-size: 16px;">Not going to zero emissions would be worse in the short term: other recent work </span><a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=http://www.pnas.org/content/114/39/10315.full&source=gmail&ust=1517955634935000&usg=AFQjCNEo3eFrhWQioZpfwILv-L8h3mr2ng" href="http://www.pnas.org/content/114/39/10315.full" style="color: #009bc5; font-family: montserrat, sans-serif; font-size: 16px;" target="_blank">shows</a><span style="color: #141414; font-family: montserrat, sans-serif; font-size: 16px;"> warming would be 2.2-2.4°C by 2050 if we continue on the current high-emissions path. And it would be disastrously worse not to go to zero emission very fast, due to the longer-term impacts: continuing on the current high-emissions trajectory would bring warming of 4.1–5°C by 2100.</span></div>
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<br />Nevertheless, Spratt, points out that even if we went to zero emissions <span class="aBn" data-term="goog_1169448361" style="border-bottom: 1px dashed rgb(204, 204, 204); position: relative; top: -2px; z-index: 0;" tabindex="0"><span class="aQJ" style="position: relative; top: 2px; z-index: -1;">tomorrow</span></span>, we would be unlikely to avoid two degrees,<br /></div>
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<span style="color: #141414; font-family: montserrat, sans-serif; font-size: 16px;">Thus, without solar radiation management (replacing anthropogenic aerosols from fossil fuel use with anthropogenic aerosols spread from planes or fired into the atmosphere) it will be difficult to avoid 2°C no matter what CO2 emissions path we take, and all but impossible not to overshoot 1.5°C by at least a third. It is not yet clear that there is demonstrable clear net environmental benefit from solar radiation management, and we should only do it if that is the case. But in not doing it, we need to be honest about what will be lost and what further tipping points may be crossed.</span></div>
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<span style="color: #141414; font-family: montserrat, sans-serif;">(Speaking of tipping points, I suppose its worth pointing out here that a recent study suggests tha<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=https://news.mongabay.com/2013/02/rise-in-1-5-degrees-celsius-likely-to-spark-massive-greenhouse-gas-release-from-permafrost/&source=gmail&ust=1517955634935000&usg=AFQjCNG_xTETeV2VzoGVwKzdtblpGJ4lmQ" href="https://news.mongabay.com/2013/02/rise-in-1-5-degrees-celsius-likely-to-spark-massive-greenhouse-gas-release-from-permafrost/" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">t 1.5 is likely to be the trigger to the beginning of the permafrost melt.</a>. </span></div>
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<span style="color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif;"> Roberts makes a good argument, but it contains a hidden premise. It may be true that all of the things he mentions, nuclear plants, more dams, transmission lines crisscrossing the country will be needed, if we are to stop CO2 emissions, </span><span style="color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif;"><b><u>and we are to continue to live a high consumption, high energy lifestyle. </u></b></span><span style="color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif;"> But maybe its that lifestyle itself that is the problem. Not just. for the climate.</span></div>
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We want a functioning ecosystem. We want to keep temperatures down. And we want to continue our high consumption high energy lifestyle. </div>
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We want all three.</div>
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But , perhaps Roberts is right. We can't have all three. </div>
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So, how about that lifestyle?</div>
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But how much energy do we really need? <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=http://www.resilience.org/stories/2018-01-29/how-much-energy-do-we-need/&source=gmail&ust=1517955634935000&usg=AFQjCNECmQNvUsfG-HXJ4tqnzza3mi5VFg" href="http://www.resilience.org/stories/2018-01-29/how-much-energy-do-we-need/" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank"> Here</a> is an interesting exploration of energy poverty and <b>energy decadence</b></div>
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Walterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18048738723369282833noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1190362411119958387.post-46631088208381177282018-01-15T12:01:00.000-08:002018-01-15T12:01:40.167-08:00After the horse has left the barn<br />
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I went to the desert on a horse with no name</div>
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It felt good to get out of the rain</div>
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Well be riding Wildfire</div>
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Greetings. And Happy New Year</div>
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Personally, I'm not too sad to see 2017 go. 2017 was when we <a href="https://e360.yale.edu/features/how-the-world-passed-a-carbon-threshold-400ppm-and-why-it-matters" style="color: #1155cc;">hit the carbon threshold of 400 ppm 400</a></div>
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<i>Last year marked the first time in several million years that atmospheric concentrations of CO2 passed 400 parts per million. By looking at what Earth’s climate was like in previous eras of high CO2 levels, scientists are getting a sobering picture of where we are headed.</i></div>
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Last year will go down in history as the year when the planet’s atmosphere broke a startling record: 400 parts per million of carbon dioxide. The last time the planet’s air was so rich in CO2 was millions of years ago, back before early predecessors to humans were likely wielding stone tools; <strong>the world was a few degrees hotter back then, and melted ice put sea levels tens of meters higher.</strong></div>
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“We’re in a new era,” says Ralph Keeling, director of the Scripps Institution of Oceanography’s CO2 Program in San Diego. “And it’s going fast. We’re going to touch up against 410 pretty soon.”</div>
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<i>There’s nothing particularly magic about the number 400. But for environmental scientists and advocates grappling with the invisible, intangible threat of rising carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere, this symbolic target has served as a clear red line into a danger zone of climate change.</i></div>
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(For an interesting discussion of some of the scientific papers from 2017 see "<a href="http://www.resilience.org/stories/2018-01-15/learned-climate-system-2017-send-shivers-spines-policy-makers/" style="color: #1155cc;">What we Lerned about the Climate System in 2017 That should send shivers down the spines of policy makers.</a>")<i style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, garamond, baskerville, "times new roman", times, serif; font-size: 16px;"></i></div>
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And a few other disturbing things happened in 2017. Are they canaries in a coal mine? Some ecosystems are, or have, moved into new states. Permanently. </div>
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For instance,<a href="http://grist.org/article/heartbroken-scientists-lament-the-likely-loss-of-most-of-the-worlds-coral-reefs/" style="color: #1155cc;"> coral reefs</a> (I don't like it much when people start talking about " last rites for an ecosystem ")</div>
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A study published Thursday in Science by some of the world’s top coral experts amounts to last rites for the ecosystems often referred to as “the tropical rainforests of the sea.” Scientists surveyed 100 reefs around the world and found that <strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">extreme bleaching events that once occurred every 25-30 years now happen about every five or six years</strong>.</div>
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“These impacts are stacking up at a pace and at a severity that I had never anticipated, even as an expert,” says Kim Cobb, a climate scientist and coral researcher at the Georgia Institute of Technology. “<strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">It’s really the rapidity of it that is so sobering and shocking</strong> — and for me personally, life-altering.”</div>
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“Before the 1980s, mass bleaching of corals was unheard of,” Terry Hughes, a coral scientist at Australia’s James Cook University and lead author of the new study, said in a statement.</div>
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The new study finds that 94 percent of surveyed coral reefs have experienced a severe bleaching event since the 1980s. Only six sites surveyed were unaffected. They are scattered around the world, meaning no ocean basin on Earth has been entirely spared.</div>
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Interview with one of the authors<a href="https://www.ecoshock.org/2018/01/3-radical-interviews.html" style="color: #1155cc;"> here</a></div>
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The region is now definitively trending toward an ice-free state, the scientists said, with wide-ranging ramifications for ecosystems, national security, and the stability of the global climate system. It was a fitting venue for an eye-opening reminder that, on its current path, civilization is engaged in an existential gamble with the planet’s life-support system.</div>
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In an accompanying <a href="https://www.blogger.com/null" style="background-color: transparent; border-bottom: 0.0625rem solid rgb(148, 168, 183); color: #054a61; line-height: inherit;">annual report</a> on the Arctic’s health — titled “the Arctic shows no sign of returning to reliably frozen region of recent past decades” — the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which oversees all official U.S. research in the region, coined a term: “<a href="http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/Report-Card/Report-Card-2017/ArtMID/7798/ArticleID/691/Collecting-Environmental-Intelligence-in-the-New-Arctic" style="background-color: transparent; border-bottom: 0.0625rem solid rgb(148, 168, 183); color: #054a61; line-height: inherit; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">New Arctic.</a>”</div>
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This, of course, has devastating effects on the humans and other animals who relied on the " old arctic". </div>
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The loss of sea ice is already having profound changes all the way down at the base of the Arctic food web. As more sunlight hits darkly-colored open water, more heat energy is retained, and temperatures are rising further. That’s kicking off what Mathis, of NOAA’s Arctic Program characterizes as “an almost runaway effect,” involving a lengthening of the growing season, a greening of the tundra, a surge in wildfires, and a boom in plankton growth. All that adds up to a wide-ranging disruption to <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/11/25/climate/arctic-climate-change.html" style="border-bottom: 0.0625rem solid rgb(148, 168, 183); color: #054a61; line-height: inherit; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">patterns that Arctic natives have relied on for millennia</a>.</div>
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But it also has other knock effects, like melting permafrost </div>
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In the NOAA report, Arctic scientists lay out their best ideas of what this shift could mean for the world. Their depictions are sobering.</div>
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Take, for instance, the hypothesis of University of Alaska-Fairbanks permafrost scientist Vladimir Romanovsky: So far, 2017 has seen the highest permafrost temperatures in Alaska on record. If that warming continues at the current rate, widespread thawing could begin in as few as 10 years. The impact of such defrosting “will be very very severe,” Romanovsky says, and could include the destruction of local infrastructure — like roads and buildings — throughout the Northern Hemisphere and the release of additional greenhouse gases that have been locked for generations in the ice.</div>
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<span style="color: #666666; font-family: open sans, arial, sans-serif;">Unfortunately what happens in the Arctic doesn't stay in the arctic. Here an<a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-arctic-is-getting-crazy/" style="color: #1155cc;"> interview </a></span><span style="color: #666666; font-family: "open sans", arial, sans-serif;"><a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-arctic-is-getting-crazy/" style="color: #1155cc;">with Dr. Jennifer Francis linking the jet stream to events in the lower 48, like the California drought.</a></span></div>
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Or how about<a href="https://grist.org/briefly/roughly-a-quarter-of-the-planet-is-slowly-turning-into-a-perpetual-desert/" style="color: #1155cc;"> turning one-quarter of the planet into a desert, by the time we hit 2 degrees (</a>2060?) More <a href="https://futurism.com/stick-our-climate-goals-paris-agreement-deliver-drier-world/" style="color: #1155cc;">here</a></div>
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Roughly a quarter of the planet is slowly turning into a perpetual desert.</h1>
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A <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-017-0034-4" style="background-color: transparent; background-position: 0px -1px; background-repeat: no-repeat; color: #758fa3; line-height: inherit; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">study</a> published Monday inpre-industrialNature Climate Change contains a stark warning for humankind: If global temperatures rise 1.5 degrees C above pre-industrial levels by 2050, between <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/science/2018/jan/02/keep-global-warming-under-15c-or-quarter-of-planet-could-become-arid" style="background-color: transparent; background-position: 0px -1px; background-repeat: no-repeat; color: #758fa3; line-height: inherit; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">20 and 30 percent</a> of the world’s land surface could face desertlike conditions.</div>
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Swaths of Asia, Europe, Africa, Central America, and southern Australia would be hit particularly hard by drought and aridification, the long-term reduction of moisture in soil. More than <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/science/2018/jan/02/keep-global-warming-under-15c-or-quarter-of-planet-could-become-arid" style="background-color: transparent; background-position: 0px -1px; background-repeat: no-repeat; color: #758fa3; line-height: inherit; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">1.5 billion people</a> currently live in these regions</div>
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Things would go much better, the researchers find, if we managed to stay within 1.5 degrees Celsius of pre-industrial levels. Manoj Joshi, one of the study authors from the University of East Anglia, said in a statement: “Our research predicts that aridification would emerge over about 20-30 percent of the world’s land surface by the time the global mean temperature change reaches 2 degrees Celsius.</div>
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But two thirds of the affected regions could avoid significant aridification if warming is limited to 1.5 degrees Celsius.”</div>
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<span style="color: #444444; font-family: georgia, cambria, palatino linotype, serif;"><span style="background-color: #f3f3f3; font-size: 14.6667px;">K</span></span><span style="background-color: white; color: #666666; font-family: "open sans", arial, sans-serif;">ind of spooky - read that last sentence again . One third of the desertification happens before we hot 1.5 (2040?). </span></div>
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<span style="color: #666666; font-family: open sans, arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px;">How about this: <a href="https://news.nationalgeographic.com/2018/01/climate-change-suffocating-low-oxygen-zones-ocean/" style="color: #1155cc;">C</a></span></span><span style="background-color: aliceblue; color: #333333; font-family: georgia, garamond, baskerville, "times new roman", times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><a href="https://news.nationalgeographic.com/2018/01/climate-change-suffocating-low-oxygen-zones-ocean/" style="color: #1155cc;">LIMATE CHANGE IS SUFFOCATING LARGE PARTS OF THE OCEAN</a></span></div>
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“Loss of oxygen in many ways is the destruction of an ecosystem,” Breitburg says. “If we were creating vast areas on land that were uninhabitable by most animals, we’d notice. But we don’t always see things like this when they are happening in the water… These low-oxygen zones occur naturally, but have grown by more than 4.5 million square kilometers — an area roughly as large as the entire European Union—just since the mid-20th century. In part that’s because of rising temperatures.</div>
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So, welcome to a new era</div>
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So, what are we doing about it ? We have two responses One is widely advertised. Another is a bit more hidden</div>
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The one that's obvious is called "decoupling ". It is hoped that that by installing renewables, and making machinery more efficient, fossil fueled plants will become unnecessary. The economy would grow, and fossil fuel use would shrink. So far that hasn't really paid off. </div>
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<span style="color: black; font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">"... it is just not happening, at least at the global scale. Just take a look at this image:</span></div>
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<span style="color: black; font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">Note how closely related the GDP an the world's energy consumption are. It is impressive because the GDP is measured in terms of money flows.</span></div>
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For an interesting review of how little has been accomplished through efficiency efforts see<a href="http://www.resilience.org/stories/2018-01-10/bedazzled-by-energy-efficiency/" style="color: #1155cc;"> here </a> (hat tip Sarah D). <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate1451" style="color: #1155cc;">This study</a> shows how little fossil fuel has been displaced by renewable power to date . (2012) But still one hopes. We need a substantial change. <a href="http://cassandralegacy.blogspot.com/2017/12/are-we-decoupling-not-really-but-happy.html" style="color: #1155cc;">Here</a> is an illustration of what it would take. From <a href="http://www.theshiftproject.org/this-article/questionning-the-scenarios-of-the-international-energy-agency" style="color: #1155cc;">here</a></div>
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"...true "decoupling" would mean inverting the trend, as shown below (again from <a href="http://www.theshiftproject.org/this-article/questionning-the-scenarios-of-the-international-energy-agency" style="color: #888888; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">Le Petit's paper</a>), where we see what we expect from the IEA scenarios</div>
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As you see, true decoupling is quite a challenge. </div>
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<span style="font-family: sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 12.8px;">Everyone seems to admit that "decoupling" will not get us to 1.5 or 2 degrees above pre industrial So, the backstop is "Negative Emissions Technologies" , which essentially means sucking the carbon out of the air. As more fully explained in</span></span><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Chsas3u8k-k" style="color: #222222; font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 12.8px;"> this November 2017 video, by Kevin Anderson</a>. Anderson points out that not only is our reliance on this technology hidden in the fine print, technology not yet exist, the policy makers are </div>
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It also assumes that we can run things in reverse. That we can put CO2 in the atmosphere now, and take it out later, and everything will go back to where it was. This is apparently<a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/sucking-co2-from-the-air-would-not-halt-effects-of-global-warming/" style="color: #1155cc;"> not the case for the ocean</a></div>
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<span style="color: #323232; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 18px;">"The researchers based their simulation on real-world carbon dioxide emissions from 1800 to 2005, and then projected those emissions into the year 2250. Then they simulated what would happen if technology could remove 18 billion tons of carbon dioxide per year—about half of present-day emission rates—from 2250 until 2700. The researchers found this did decrease atmospheric CO2 levels but could not restore the ocean’s preindustrial dissolved oxygen content or temperature. Even after 450 years of geoengineering, the model ocean was still almost as acidic as it would have been without any intervention at all.</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #323232; font-family: georgia, serif; font-size: 18px;"> “It is clear that rather than trying to clean up a mess, it would be wiser to simply not create the mess in the first place.”</span></div>
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What can we expect in 2018? Here's a hint. Sacrifice areas. </div>
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The IPCC is due to release a report on the likelihood and effects of achieving 1.5 degrees. <a href="https://futurism.com/climate-goal-leaked-ipcc-report/amp/" style="color: #1155cc;"> Reuters has obtained a draft </a>. It confirms that there is a <span style="color: #444444; font-family: merriweather, georgia, "times new roman", times, serif; font-size: 15px;"> low probability of success: “There is very high risk that […] global warming will exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels [should emissions continue at the current pace].”</span><span style="color: #444444; font-family: merriweather, georgia, "times new roman", times, serif; font-size: 15px;">The draft also states that meeting the climate goal would require an “unprecedented” leap from fossil fuels to renewable sources of energy and extensive reforms everywhere from industry to agriculture." </span></div>
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"Additionally, while curbing global temperatures would help reduce <a href="https://futurism.com/2040-hundreds-millions-affected-river-floods-across-world/" style="color: #31a1ff; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">some of the worst impacts</a> of climate change, including sea level rise and droughts,<b> it would not be enough to protect the <a href="https://futurism.com/marine-food-webs-brink-collapse-because-climate-change/" style="color: #31a1ff; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">planet’s most fragile ecosystems</a>, including polar ice caps and coral reefs.</b></div>
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<span style="color: #444444; font-family: merriweather, georgia, times new roman, times, serif; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-size: 15px;">One wonders what else will be </span><span style="font-size: 15px;">sacrificed</span><span style="font-size: 15px;"> on the alter of the growth of the industrial economy. The Amazon? Low lying areas in South east Asa? </span></span><br />
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<span style="color: #666666; font-family: open sans, arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px;">And as for the Negative Emissions Technology ?</span></span></div>
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"Gabriel Marty, a climate change analyst and former U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) delegate for France, told Futurism that it’s too soon to speculate on the content of the final report.However, once it is released, he said readers should note the treatment of the uncertainties and risks of the so-called “bio-energy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS)” technologies designed to suck carbon emissions out of the atmosphere. The risks associated [with heavily relying on these technologies] must be clearly outlined,” said Marty. “<b>They do not exist yet, the scale that would be needed would be enormous, and the adverse impacts on land and water resources would likely be huge.”</b>According to sources familiar with the IPCC’s proceedings, the panel has been criticized in the past for being too coy about the limitations of BECCS and for understating their risks in order to present the 2 degrees Celsius target as “still viable.”</div>
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Walterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18048738723369282833noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1190362411119958387.post-40399228972943830752017-12-17T11:49:00.000-08:002017-12-17T11:49:39.480-08:00Blowing Smoke<br />
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I just saw a book review of a book I'd like to read , it's called Bunk, The Rise of Humbug, Plagerists, Phonies, post Facts, and Fake News. Review <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/14/books/review/bunk-kevin-young.html?_r=0" style="color: #1155cc;">here</a>.. Its kind of a history of hocum, and an inquiry into the human mind which continues to let itself be fooled.</div>
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Of course the energy area is littered with hocum . Best of all was, "<a href="https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=5&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwjIg-2n3pHYAhUC5mMKHc2jDFkQFghBMAQ&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.thisdayinquotes.com%2F2009%2F09%2Ftoo-cheap-to-meter-nuclear-quote-debate.html&usg=AOvVaw36vE8loVG4sRVereEVhoCh" style="color: #1155cc;">too cheap to meter</a> " . How about "cold fusion" ?, or " abiotic oil" . Mostly hog wash. Ethanol from Algea? <a href="http://peakoil.com/alternative-energy/its-final-corn-ethanol-is-of-no-use" style="color: #1155cc;"> From corn</a>? Balerrdash. How about the hydrogen highway? And of course, <a href="https://eos.org/research-spotlights/methane-leaks-may-make-natural-gas-worse-than-coal-for-climate" style="color: #1155cc;">natural gas, the "bridge fuel</a> " (probably worse than coal) . </div>
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So, I suppose we shouldn't be too surprised to see <a href="https://www.wired.com/story/the-dirty-secret-of-the-worlds-plan-to-avert-climate-disaster/amp" style="color: #1155cc;">this article </a>which explores the reality behind the "imaginary technology" of BECCS. By putting our faith in this specter, policy makers can embrace carbon budget busting programs with a straight face. As one Obama era expect says,</div>
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"The most important of the IPCC’s projections is that we’re screwed unless we can figure out how to take CO2 out of the atmosphere, because we haven’t acted fast enough,”<br /><br /></blockquote>
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: x-small;"> Next up -" green consumption", or "Why cotton shopping bags may do more harm than good" . All of us wealthy (and it's mostly the wealthy), concerned citizens, that engage in earth friendly purchasing , which, although it makes us feel better, is basically a waste of time. So says </span><a href="https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2017/12/1/16718844/green-consumers-climate-change" style="color: #1155cc; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: small;">Dave Roberts </a><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">anyway, and he has a few studies to back him up.</span><br />
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Ecological footprint is mostly determined by wealth</h3>
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The study was published in the June 2017 edition of the journal <em style="font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: inherit; vertical-align: inherit;">Environment and Behavior</em><em style="font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: inherit; vertical-align: inherit;"></em>with a title that gives you some idea of what to expect: <a href="http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0013916517710685" style="background-color: transparent; border-bottom-color: transparent; border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-width: 1px; color: #4f7177; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-weight: 600; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: inherit; vertical-align: inherit;" target="_blank">“Good Intents, but Low Impacts.”</a></div>
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Basically, research shows that the cynical view is roughly correct: Environmental identity will lead to some relatively low-impact (high-signaling) pro-environmental behaviors, but it rarely drives serious reductions in the biggest sources of lifestyle emissions. Environmental self-identification rises with income, but so do emissions.</div>
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(A <a href="http://www.erscp2012.eu/upload/doc/ERSCP_Full_Papers/CsutoraM_The_ecological_footprint_of_green_and_brown_consumers.pdf" style="background-color: transparent; border-bottom-color: transparent; border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-width: 1px; color: #4f7177; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-weight: 600; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: inherit; vertical-align: inherit;" target="_blank">2012 study</a> and a <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421513008537" style="background-color: transparent; border-bottom-color: transparent; border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-width: 1px; color: #4f7177; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-weight: 600; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: inherit; vertical-align: inherit;" target="_blank">2013 study</a>, both based on a survey in Hungary, found roughly the same thing.)</div>
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The bottom line is pretty straight forward. To really deal with our overshoot would require real lifestyle change.</div>
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"<span style="background-color: white; color: #4c4e4d; font-family: balto, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 18px;">Consider what the average upper-middle-class American would actually have to do to make a substantial dent in her carbon footprint. Above all, she would have to drastically cut back on travel — virtually never fly and heavily favor walking and biking. She would have to give up meat and live in a small apartment in a dense, transit-served urban area. (On the issue of what it would truly mean to consume only the “fair” per-capita amount of energy, watch </span><a href="http://longnow.org/seminars/02009/jan/16/climate-change-recalculated/" style="background-color: white; border-bottom-color: transparent; border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-width: 1px; color: #4f7177; font-family: balto, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; font-weight: 600; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: inherit; vertical-align: inherit;" target="_blank">this hour-long talk</a><span style="background-color: white; color: #4c4e4d; font-family: balto, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 18px;"> by Saul Griffith. It will change your life</span></div>
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But, we keep on falling for this stuff. Why? We want to beleive. Can we rid ourselves of these psychological tendencies ? Surely once we recognize our biases and limitations . Perhaps. But perhaps not. See <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/jun/08/climate-change-deniers-g7-goal-fossil-fuel" style="color: #1155cc;">here</a></div>
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: 'guardian text egyptian web', georgia, serif; font-size: small;">".... in his recent </span><a href="http://www.bloomsbury.com/uk/dont-even-think-about-it-9781620401330/" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: white; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border-bottom-color: rgb(220, 220, 220); border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-width: 0.0625rem; color: #005689; font-family: 'guardian text egyptian web', georgia, serif; font-size: medium;" target="_blank">book Don’t Even Think About It</a><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: 'guardian text egyptian web', georgia, serif; font-size: small;">, climate change activist George Marshall interviews the Nobel prizewinning </span><a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/video/2011/nov/21/daniel-kahneman-psychology-video" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: white; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border-bottom-color: rgb(220, 220, 220); border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-width: 0.0625rem; color: #005689; font-family: 'guardian text egyptian web', georgia, serif; font-size: medium;" target="_blank">psychologist Daniel Kahneman, the leading scholar of cognitive biases</a><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: 'guardian text egyptian web', georgia, serif; font-size: small;">, and tries to nudge him into saying that understanding our brains’ limitations will, at the very least, make it easier to overcome them. “I’m not very optimistic about that,” Kahneman replies, despondently sipping tomato soup. <b>“No amount of psychological awareness will overcome people’s reluctance to lower their standard of living. </b>So that’s my bottom line: there is not much hope. I’m thoroughly pessimistic. I’m sorry.” </span></div>
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Here's <a href="http://www.monbiot.com/2017/11/24/everything-must-go/" style="color: #1155cc;">what Geoge Monbiot says</a></div>
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<i style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, garamond, baskerville, 'times new roman', times, serif; font-size: 16px;">Green consumerism, material decoupling, sustainable growth: all are illusions, designed to justify an economic model that is driving us to catastrophe. The current system, based on private luxury and public squalor, will immiserate us all: under this model, luxury and deprivation are one beast with two heads.</i></div>
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">There is some good news though. In California they have implimented a cap and trade law. See</span><a href="https://skepticalscience.com/explainer-ca-cap-and-trade.html" style="background-color: white; color: #1155cc; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: small;"> here</a>. Which just got an update see <a href="https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2017/5/3/15512258/california-revolutionize-cap-and-trade" style="color: #1155cc;">here</a> <span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">The next session of the Oregon legislature is set to take it up. .</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">Here's a summary. from <a href="https://climatetrust.org/a-carbon-copy-of-californias-cap-and-trade-for-oregon/" style="color: #1155cc;">here</a></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #202020; font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 21px;">Oregon’s proposed program would cover approximately 100 businesses and have an emissions cap of 50 million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalents. By linking with California, Ontario, and Quebec, Oregon would have access to a market with several hundred more compliance entities and an emissions cap ten times as large. Therefore, Oregon companies participating in a linked market would have significant flexibility in finding the lowest cost options to reduce their emissions. In addition to reducing compliance costs, linking a new Oregon market to one that has been in existence for several years will also reduce any volatility that Oregon businesses might experience. The twin benefits of least-cost compliance and minimal market volatility are clear benefits for Oregon in linking to a large market.</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: x-small;"> Unlike some of the other ideas, mentioned above, this seems to be an idea that might actually make things better. So that's good news. </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: x-small;"> Of course " better" is a pretty low bar. At this point we are speeding towards a cliff at 80 miles an hour. We need to put our foot on the brake. But we are unwilling to do that. It might affect our high energy lifestyle </span></div>
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Maybe cap and trade will lighten up on the accelerator . We just passed the sign that says "Last stop for 1.5 degrees". We missed the turnoff. Next comes the 2 degree cliff. </div>
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What does the future hold? Well, of course renewable energy will be built out. It is getting cheaper and cheaper. The question is how fast. Fast enough to avoid 2 degrees ? Probably not. Fast enough to substitute for a depleting amount of fossil fuel? Perhaps not .</div>
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Ugo Bardi has dome some interesting modelling on the issue of energy transition. See <a href="https://cassandralegacy.blogspot.com/2017/12/the-energy-transition-too-little-too.html" style="color: #1155cc;">here</a>. He suggests that our build out is too slow.</div>
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #141414; font-family: montserrat, sans-serif; font-size: 16px;">According to these estimates, </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #141414; font-family: montserrat, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-weight: 700;">the current level of energy investments in new renewable energy is not sufficient to attain the transition </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #141414; font-family: montserrat, sans-serif; font-size: 16px;">within the assumed climatic and energetic constraints. <..></span></blockquote>
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #141414; font-family: montserrat, sans-serif; font-size: 16px;">In short, a transition that could maintain the “BAU” (business as usual) is technically feasible and physically possible if we were willing to increase of a factor of 5 (at the very least) our investments in it. Unfortunately, the trend is going in the opposite direction. The global </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #141414; font-family: montserrat, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-weight: 700;">investments in renewable energy seem to have levelled off and </span><a href="https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/global-clean-energy-investment-dropped-18-in-2016-with-slowdown-from-china" style="background-color: white; color: #009bc5; font-family: montserrat, sans-serif; font-size: 16px;" target="_blank">In 2016</a><span style="background-color: white; color: #141414; font-family: montserrat, sans-serif; font-size: 16px;"> were approximately at the same level as they were in 2010. </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #141414; font-family: montserrat, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-weight: 700;">Too little, too late</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #141414; font-family: montserrat, sans-serif; font-size: 16px;">.</span></blockquote>
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #141414; font-family: montserrat, sans-serif; font-size: 16px;">So, basically, </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #141414; font-family: montserrat, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-weight: 700;">we are not making it. We are consciously choosing to go down<a href="http://thesenecatrap.blogspot.it/" style="background-color: transparent; color: #009bc5;" target="_blank"> the Seneca Cliff</a>, </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #141414; font-family: montserrat, sans-serif; font-size: 16px;">even though we wouldn’t need to. It is maddening to think that we are failing at the challenge not because the transition is technologically unfeasible or unaffordable, but because </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #141414; font-family: montserrat, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-weight: 700;">the transition is politically inconceivable</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #141414; font-family: montserrat, sans-serif; font-size: 16px;">. Increasing investments in renewable energy requires sacrifices and this is a no-no in our world.</span></blockquote>
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Walterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18048738723369282833noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1190362411119958387.post-7469832484011108652017-11-29T08:46:00.000-08:002017-11-29T08:46:34.576-08:00A Vision of a Christmas yet to be<br />
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to change your mind</div>
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You could have a change of heart</div>
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-Steely Dan</div>
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Greetings</div>
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I just saw "The man who invented Christmas", which was quite cute. I particularly liked Charles Dickens's writing room. I want one like that!</div>
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In the movie , Dickens has a hard time imagining that Scrooge will have a change of heart, but in the end is persuaded to write the story wit a hopeful ending . So, I thought it might be interesting to look at our predicament in the light of that story.</div>
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In the role of Scrooge, we have the global elite, (that's you and me), who are unable, or unwilling to make enough of a change to our high energy life styles. Although we assert that we are concerned with climate change, <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/04/06/new_climate_change_poll_shows_americans_believe_in_global_warming.html&source=gmail&ust=1511994088864000&usg=AFQjCNF7QXnJ1kt-qSENuahYeeSzvN2lTA" href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/04/06/new_climate_change_poll_shows_americans_believe_in_global_warming.html" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">we don't think it will affect us, but only future generations</a> (See <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=http://www.paulchefurka.ca/Hyperbolic%2520Discount%2520Functions.html&source=gmail&ust=1511994088864000&usg=AFQjCNFeG6VgqijKxPrnvCfSx-OX5f8wOA" href="http://www.paulchefurka.ca/Hyperbolic%20Discount%20Functions.html" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">this article</a> on our hard wired future discounting function)</div>
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So, we vote based on other higher priority issues, like immigration, and economic opportunity. We believe that climate change is important, but it <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=http://www.people-press.org/2017/01/24/after-seismic-political-shift-modest-changes-in-publics-policy-agenda/1-17/&source=gmail&ust=1511994088864000&usg=AFQjCNFwuwHOLVk4p7x7MMMZzSMjez9eXQ" href="http://www.people-press.org/2017/01/24/after-seismic-political-shift-modest-changes-in-publics-policy-agenda/1-17/" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">still only ranks 18th out of our top 20 issues.</a> </div>
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We sent our representatives to Bonn, to try to devise a way around these inconsistencies. <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=http://www.resilience.org/stories/2017-11-22/personal-reflections-on-the-23rd-cop-in-bonn-fiji-nov-2017/&source=gmail&ust=1511994088864000&usg=AFQjCNGpA_m4w16TXGM79SQ9X7hI4-1w9w" href="http://www.resilience.org/stories/2017-11-22/personal-reflections-on-the-23rd-cop-in-bonn-fiji-nov-2017/" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">Here are Kevin Anderson's reflections on those negotiations </a></div>
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Last Monday (November 13th) the <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=http://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget/index.htm&source=gmail&ust=1511994088864000&usg=AFQjCNE_IXLWiCc0MNuDRqVbJoSlRn7fMg" href="http://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget/index.htm" style="background-color: transparent; color: #009bc5;" target="_blank">Global Carbon Project</a> announced the results of its annual assessment of emissions data. In 2017 carbon dioxide from fossil fuels and cement is anticipated to be 2% higher than in 2016. Is this really such a surprise?</div>
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Witness the US and the EU’s fervour for locking-in high-carbon gas[4] behind a veil of closing down old coal. Academic enthusiasm for evermore quixotic ‘negative emission technologies'(NETs)[5] and geo-engineering to support ‘big oil’ and infinite growth. A growing cadre of climate glitterati ratcheting up its rhetoric to align with its rocketing emissions. The UNFCCC’s promotion of expedient offsetting to ‘neutralise’ emissions from air-travel to Bonn and its other global meetings. Meanwhile journalists remain unwilling or ill equipped to call time on this catalogue of subterfuge. It’s twenty-seven years since the IPCC’s first report and a quarter of a century since the Rio Earth Summit, but still our carbon emissions are rising.</div>
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #141414; font-family: montserrat, sans-serif; font-size: 16px;">Disturbingly, and with the exception of utopian technophiles, few of those deeply engaged in climate change are convinced we “can have our cake and eat it”. Sadly, senior policy, scientific, academic and NGO figures are seldom prepared to voice publically what they admit privately. </span></blockquote>
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Nevertheless, Anderson, like Dickens comes through with a (slightly) hopeful ending</div>
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"Imagine a space where climate academics and others could be truly honest about their analysis and judgements and where disagreements were discussed openly and constructively. Add to this, informed dialogue on the ‘confluence of circumstances’ outlined above. And finally reframe climate change not as a threat to some arbitrary economic indicator, but as a secure, local and high-quality jobs agenda. Under such conditions, and with vociferous engagement by the ‘next’ generation, I can envisage an alternative progressive paradigm being ushered in – and soon.</div>
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Do I think this is likely – far from it? But I certainly judge such a decarbonised and prosperous future to be both plausible and desirable.</div>
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<span style="color: #141414; font-family: montserrat, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.875;">See more in this interview with Anderson" <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=https://www.democracynow.org/2017/11/15/scientist_kevin_anderson_our_socio_economic&source=gmail&ust=1511994088864000&usg=AFQjCNEdeHPXZuWvqzSR6Eod3APW4XF-Qg" href="https://www.democracynow.org/2017/11/15/scientist_kevin_anderson_our_socio_economic" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">Our Socioeconomic Paradigm is </a></span><a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=https://www.democracynow.org/2017/11/15/scientist_kevin_anderson_our_socio_economic&source=gmail&ust=1511994088864000&usg=AFQjCNEdeHPXZuWvqzSR6Eod3APW4XF-Qg" href="https://www.democracynow.org/2017/11/15/scientist_kevin_anderson_our_socio_economic" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank"><span style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 30px;">Incompatible</span><span style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.875;"> with Climate Change Objectives</span></a></span></div>
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: 'helvetica neue', helvetica, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16.66px; line-height: 1.6;">Here's the bigger picture, with <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2017/1/9/14186328/risks-climate-change-graph&source=gmail&ust=1511994088864000&usg=AFQjCNG8wUIT2btP2zWJRPG6d1cod_VyNw" href="https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2017/1/9/14186328/risks-climate-change-graph" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">this </a>from Dave Roberts, to see what exactly the risks are, and where we we with respect to them. </span><span style="color: #4c4e4d; font-family: balto, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; line-height: inherit;">Here’s the graph </span></div>
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Robert's conclusion is similar .</div>
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"In short, panic</h3>
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There’s a lot to glean from this graph, but here’s the takeaway: We’ve already crossed over into moderate risk on the first three RFCS. Pushing temperatures up 2 degrees Celsius over preindustrial levels — <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=http://www.vox.com/2014/4/22/5551004/two-degrees&source=gmail&ust=1511994088864000&usg=AFQjCNGGV3C6aaKVLLSvnt0tCcWBAfQTIw" href="http://www.vox.com/2014/4/22/5551004/two-degrees" style="background-color: transparent !important; border-bottom-color: transparent; border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-width: 1px; color: #4f7177; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit !important; font-style: inherit; font-weight: 600; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: inherit; vertical-align: inherit;" target="_blank">the target at which the world claims to want to stop warming</a> — puts us at high risk on the first three and moderate risk on the last two. That is the best-case scenario.</div>
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Three degrees over preindustrial levels, where we are <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=http://www.vox.com/2016/10/4/13118594/2-degrees-no-more-fossil-fuels&source=gmail&ust=1511994088864000&usg=AFQjCNHmZ92I4KEn1MwZqvRM8HEoyu8dbw" href="http://www.vox.com/2016/10/4/13118594/2-degrees-no-more-fossil-fuels" style="background-color: transparent !important; border-bottom-color: transparent; border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-width: 1px; color: #4f7177; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit !important; font-style: inherit; font-weight: 600; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: inherit; vertical-align: inherit;" target="_blank">very likely headed</a> this century, puts us at high risk across the board, very high for those uniquely threatened systems. Five degrees, which is <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=http://grist.org/climate-policy/2011-12-08-the-brutal-logic-of-climate-change-mitigation/&source=gmail&ust=1511994088864000&usg=AFQjCNGONjojcwdE4Gg4DGBa40Lt1nmfew" href="http://grist.org/climate-policy/2011-12-08-the-brutal-logic-of-climate-change-mitigation/" style="background-color: transparent !important; border-bottom-color: transparent; border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-width: 1px; color: #4f7177; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit !important; font-style: inherit; font-weight: 600; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: inherit; vertical-align: inherit;" target="_blank">entirely possible</a>, puts basically every human and ecological system at high to very high risk.</div>
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And his degree of hope ?</div>
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"We are already in danger, there’s more danger to come, and the best we can hope for is to slow and stop the process before the dangers are catastrophic. That’s the shape of things.</div>
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One of the more significant risks is of course the risk of a sea rise. For many years this has been predicted to be a long way off. (Hundreds or thousands of years). Recent research indicates that glaciers may collapse much sooner, and over a very short period of time,, . <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=https://grist.org/article/antarctica-doomsday-glaciers-could-flood-coastal-cities/&source=gmail&ust=1511994088864000&usg=AFQjCNHc1mjQDNYI4u1WGOO1YPbIIX4vCg" href="https://grist.org/article/antarctica-doomsday-glaciers-could-flood-coastal-cities/" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">Here is a good explanation</a> by meteorologist Eric Holthaus from Grist. </div>
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<span style="color: #09222b; font-family: merriweather, georgia, 'droid serif', cambria, 'times new roman', times, serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.6;">All this could play out in a mere 20 to 50 years — much too quickly for humanity to adapt.</span></blockquote>
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“With marine ice cliff instability, sea-level rise for the next century is potentially much larger than we thought it might be five or 10 years ago,” Poinar says.</div>
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A lot of this newfound concern is driven by the research of two climatologists: Rob DeConto at the University of Massachusetts-Amherst and David Pollard at Penn State University. A study <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=https://www.nature.com/articles/nature17145&source=gmail&ust=1511994088864000&usg=AFQjCNG4XD4eqMbkd1BXha3z0AaHBAe9OQ" href="https://www.nature.com/articles/nature17145" style="background-color: transparent; color: #054a61; line-height: inherit;" target="_blank">they published last year</a> was the first to incorporate the latest understanding of marine ice-cliff instability into a continent-scale model of Antarctica.</div>
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Their results drove estimates for how high the seas could rise this century sharply higher. “Antarctic model raises prospect of unstoppable ice collapse,” read <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=http://www.nature.com/news/antarctic-model-raises-prospect-of-unstoppable-ice-collapse-1.19638&source=gmail&ust=1511994088864000&usg=AFQjCNEFho9ZyaMCCemU0ZUcFg-d74k_0A" href="http://www.nature.com/news/antarctic-model-raises-prospect-of-unstoppable-ice-collapse-1.19638" style="background-color: transparent; color: #054a61; line-height: inherit;" target="_blank">the headline in the scientific journal Nature</a>, a publication not known for hyperbole.</div>
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Instead of a three-foot increase in ocean levels by the end of the century, six feet was more likely, according to DeConto and Pollard’s findings. But if carbon emissions continue to track on something resembling a worst-case scenario, the full 11 feet of ice locked in West Antarctica might be freed up, their study showed.</div>
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Three feet of sea-level rise would be bad, leading to more frequent flooding of U.S. cities such as New Orleans, Houston, New York, and Miami. Pacific Island nations, like the Marshall Islands, would lose most of their territory. Unfortunately, it now seems like three feet is possible <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=http://www.cnn.com/2015/08/27/us/nasa-rising-sea-levels/index.html&source=gmail&ust=1511994088864000&usg=AFQjCNFla3tFmYmn1x4RSZ45QZVcol4Mbw" href="http://www.cnn.com/2015/08/27/us/nasa-rising-sea-levels/index.html" style="background-color: transparent; color: #054a61; line-height: inherit;" target="_blank">only under the rosiest of scenarios</a>.</div>
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At six feet, though, around 12 million people in the United States would be displaced, and the world’s most vulnerable megacities, like Shanghai, Mumbai, and Ho Chi Minh City, could be wiped off the map.</div>
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At 11 feet, land currently inhabited by <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=http://sealevel.climatecentral.org/news/global-mapping-choices&source=gmail&ust=1511994088864000&usg=AFQjCNHV-sqYFN0VXiNfCEs6n_m1VVmVxw" href="http://sealevel.climatecentral.org/news/global-mapping-choices" style="background-color: transparent; color: #054a61; line-height: inherit;" target="_blank">hundreds of millions of people </a>worldwide would wind up underwater. South Florida would be largely uninhabitable; floods on the scale of Hurricane Sandy would strike twice a month in New York and New Jersey, as the tug of the moon alone would be enough to send tidewaters into homes and buildings.</div>
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<span style="line-height: 1.6;">It is also explained in </span><a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=https://m.youtube.com/watch?v%3DPp5kK0Td-Vc&source=gmail&ust=1511994088864000&usg=AFQjCNEv2OPsp2arm69ckAmOO3PAvzjRTg" href="https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Pp5kK0Td-Vc" style="color: #1155cc; line-height: 1.6;" target="_blank">this video</a><span style="line-height: 1.6;">. (a</span><span style="background-color: #f3f3f3; color: #444444; font-family: georgia, cambria, 'palatino linotype', serif; font-size: 14.6667px; line-height: 1.6;">t about 6:30 Eric Rignot discusses the melting glaciers in West Antarctica.)</span></div>
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But really? Are these early melt scenarios really plausible ?</div>
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<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=http://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/15/magazine/the-secrets-in-greenlands-ice-sheets.html?_r%3D0&source=gmail&ust=1511994088865000&usg=AFQjCNFsPhaUU8slyXwiSljpmq0n0T336w" href="http://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/15/magazine/the-secrets-in-greenlands-ice-sheets.html?_r=0" style="color: #1155cc; font-family: georgia, cambria, 'palatino linotype', serif; font-size: 14.6667px; line-height: normal;" target="_blank">From the NY Times </a><span style="background-color: #f3f3f3; color: #444444; font-family: georgia, cambria, 'palatino linotype', serif; font-size: 14.6667px; line-height: normal;">: </span></div>
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<span style="background-color: #f3f3f3; color: #444444; font-family: georgia, cambria, 'palatino linotype', serif; font-size: 14.6667px; line-height: normal;">“When I asked Richard Alley, almost certainly the most respected glaciologist in the United States, whether he would be surprised to see Thwaites collapse in his lifetime, he drew a breath. Alley is 58 [now 60]. ‘‘Up until very recently, I would have said, ‘Yes, I’d be surprised,’ ’’ he told me. ‘‘Right now, I’m not sure…”</span></div>
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"<span style="color: black; font-family: calluna, serif; font-size: 18px;">Next to a meteor strike, rapid sea-level rise from collapsing ice cliffs is one of the quickest ways our world can remake itself. This is about as fast as climate change get</span></div>
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<span style="color: #09222b; font-family: merriweather, georgia, 'droid serif', cambria, 'times new roman', times, serif; font-size: 19.04px; line-height: 1.6;">But, it seems, up to now, our knowledge of glacier behavior has been rather limited.</span><br />
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<span style="color: black; font-family: calluna, serif; font-size: 18px;">"Bassis, the ice sheet scientist at the University of Michigan, first described the theoretical process of marine ice-cliff instability in research published only a few years ago.</span></div>
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<span style="color: black; font-family: calluna, serif; font-size: 18px;">"Every revision to our understanding has said that ice sheets can change faster than we thought,” he says. “We didn’t predict that Pine Island was going to retreat, we didn’t predict that Larsen B was going to disintegrate. We tend to look at these things after they’ve happened.”</span></div>
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Robert (Fanney) <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=https://robertscribbler.com/2017/11/22/from-ice-apocalypse-to-mega-thunderstorms-continuing-to-burn-fossil-fuels-makes-the-world-scary-as-all-hell/&source=gmail&ust=1511994088865000&usg=AFQjCNENytOdkVSRa-fGVjjj3OTZhQK6kg" href="https://robertscribbler.com/2017/11/22/from-ice-apocalypse-to-mega-thunderstorms-continuing-to-burn-fossil-fuels-makes-the-world-scary-as-all-hell/" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">Scribbler offers his reflections on this risk</a>, as well as the risk of more frequent high intensity thunderstorms, like the one that flooded Houston. Scribbler, normally, a relentless optimist offers these thoughts</div>
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<span style="color: #444444; font-family: georgia, cambria, 'palatino linotype', serif; font-size: 14.6667px; line-height: 1.6;">These increases are on top of already elevated rates of rainfall intensity we presently see today in destructive events that our infrastructure and disaster planning is clearly not prepared for (as seen during Harvey). So as we take the time to give thanks for the great bounty that many of us still have, perhaps we should also take the time to think of the things we can do to keep safe what we have worked so hard for and care so much about and to do our best to help those who are less fortunate. Who have already fallen casualty to a time of troubles.</span></div>
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At this point, climate change, like real estate values, is all about location. If you don't live where the fires, droughts and storms are, its not so bad. But if you do.... Right now the people of Puerto Rico, US citizens (!), are still struggling with the impact of Hurricane Maria. Half the population has been without power 63 days after the event.</div>
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<span style="line-height: 1.6;"> See. Richard Heinberg. <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=http://richardheinberg.com/museletter-305-puerto-rico-future&source=gmail&ust=1511994088865000&usg=AFQjCNEJYfNizFjryEmVEChrq1qSFXtmzw" href="http://richardheinberg.com/museletter-305-puerto-rico-future" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">Puerto Rico is our future</a>. </span></div>
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So, I may not be too hopeful about a change of heart in the Scrooges of our world, but perhaps we can still send a Christmas gift to the Tiny Tims .</div>
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Here's one way</div>
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<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=https://www.directrelief.org&source=gmail&ust=1511994088865000&usg=AFQjCNHUomq_tjA3WKcjsVHKGUqEgusYMg" href="https://www.directrelief.org/" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">https://www.directrelief.org</a>. (Ranked #1 by Charity Navigator )</div>
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Walterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18048738723369282833noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1190362411119958387.post-4461483142058494032017-10-22T15:30:00.001-07:002017-10-22T15:30:28.729-07:00<div dir="auto" style="color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: small;">
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I always enjoy reading Eric Lindberg. He is what i would call a thoughtful, hopefull, realist. He's been doing a series of pieces about the Transition Movement, trying to come up with a model that has real staying power, rather than some effort to deal with this or that crisis . His latest is to use a sort of Earth Religion model, noting that churches, like political parties (and corporations) have long lives. And if the associated humans are inspired by the philosophies, they will be willing to work for long term goals , which may never be achieved during their lifetimes . See. <a href="http://www.resilience.org/stories/2017-10-16/transition-sacred/" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">Here</a></div>
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One part of that struck me was his description of the the appropriate long term goal. Is it "green growth", or "sustainable growth"? It is not. In fact, Lindberg says, only radical simplicity can deal with the damage that has been done and continues to be done. Green growth provides only "improved means towards an unimproved end"</div>
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #141414; font-family: montserrat, sans-serif; font-size: 16px;">"To put it a bit too glibly, Transition says that </span><em style="background-color: white; color: #141414; font-family: montserrat, sans-serif; font-size: 16px;">since</em><span style="background-color: white; color: #141414; font-family: montserrat, sans-serif; font-size: 16px;"> the only way to keep your Netflix up-and-running is, in fact, to blow the tops of mountains, create underground earthquakes and poison our groundwater, or cover every acre of the Earth’s surface with wind turbines and solar panels, then we’d better re-evaluate our values and choose a way of life that allows us to live safely within the Earth’s biological and ecological limits, even if that means we end up living a lot more like Ecuadorian peasants or the Amish than middle-class Americans who manage global complexity from our glimmering offices. If we have to relinquish our Netflix and smart phones, our European vacations and air-conditioned homes, so be it. Humanity has managed just fine without any of these throughout most of its history, a history we are taught to view with dismay and pity according to an educational perspective that is aimed at maintaining the beliefs and practices necessary for industrial progress and expansion.</span></div>
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He goes to explain in more detail.</div>
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"The goal of environmentalism is of course to “save the Earth” or “save Humanity.” These are not bad goals, per se, but in the hands of liberal environmentalists they are misguided in a number of ways. The most critical error is the almost-never-questioned belief that saving humanity or the Earth actually means preserving our high-energy way of life, hopefully without destroying our common home’s current ecological balance in the process. This will be done, we are told, by trading in our coal-powered electrical generation for wind and solar, while swapping-out our internal combustion engines for the electric ones we might plug into our new carbon-free energy system. Add in some Silicon Valley wizardry, and (so the story goes) we can make this all operate at a level of efficiency that will presumably also help us manage forests, stop soil erosion, preserve biodiversity and habitat, while we continue to grow the economy so that free-market democracy (one without any rationing or reinstitution of virtues such as temperance or moderation) can continue on its merry way, offering us a future that looks like the present, only in real-time higher resolution.</div>
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'I can’t help but wonder whether I should laugh or cry when I hear or read about the so-called people’s climate march or about <em>most<a href="http://www.resilience.org/stories/2017-10-16/transition-sacred/#_edn2" name="m_-1302159025158070021_m_736838436140534687_m_267854595232916896__ednref2" style="background-color: transparent; color: #009bc5;" target="_blank"><span style="font-weight: 700;">[ii]</span></a></em> environmental protesters in general — the sort who might follow the increasingly misguided (and misleading) false prophecy of the likes of Bill McKibben, Al Gore, or Leonardo Di Caprio. For at root, they are in effect protesting one form of energy collection and delivery in favor of a different one. It is presented as a great struggle over values and vision, though it is not. If there is faith at stake in the prevailing struggle (and I believe there is) it is a fully shared faith in progress struggling only over esoteric theological details, practical differences between fossil fuels and renewable energy notwithstanding. True each side draws upon differing versions of capitalism and Liberal democracy and some (not entirely unimportant) symbolic and aesthetic differences. And it is also true that many environmentalists love and cherish nature in some way or another and would like to see it preserved. But unquestioned in mainstream environmental movements are the more fundamental values surrounding the quest for mastery and domination over the Earth’s natural systems; the pursuit of comfort, entertainment, and novelty; the securing of safety and convenience in the face of all the ravages of time and, ultimately, death. All we see are slightly differing versions of salvation through conquest and mastery.</div>
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This view is supported by <a href="http://www.resilience.org/stories/2017-10-20/theres-only-one-way-to-avoid-climate-catastrophe-de-growing-our-economy/" style="color: #1155cc;">this piece by Jason Hickel,</a> which I think lays out the problem with the green growth argument in the context of climate change Those who support green growth argue that the trick is to reduce "carbon intensity ", that is the a mount of carbon per unit of GDP. And carbon intensity has and will go down as we use more efficient devices, such as EVS , and more low carbon energy sources. Carbon intensity is falling, at a rate 1.9%. When you compare this rate with the over all growth rate of 3%, you can see that it is swimming against the tide (although estimated carbon emission numbers are flat ). More importantly though, even if even if carbon intensity were equal to GDP growth, there is no actual reduction in carbon. Compare it to the reductions needed of 8-10%, it barely moves the needle . Se also <a href="https://www.vox.com/2014/9/11/6136605/chart-which-countries-are-decarbonizing-the-fastest" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">Carbon intensity needs to fall at 6% each yr </a>(Vox). Although Hickel doesn't speak in terms of returning to a peasant lifestyle, he admits that the no growth option is a "hard pill to swallow" He argues that maybe we won't have to actually get rid of stuff, just stop buying more.</div>
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Of course it is important to remember that climate change isn't the only concern . It is merely one symptom. <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/oct/20/insectageddon-farming-catastrophe-climate-breakdown-insect-populations" style="color: #1155cc;"> Here's an interesting column from Geoge Monbiot, </a>who argues that climate change is not the worlds most most pressing environmental problem. Its only number 3. He ranks first , the "systematic ecological collapse" caused by industrial fishing. Second , he puts the erasure of non-human life on land due to industrial farming. For instance the drop in insect populations.. see <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/oct/18/warning-of-ecological-armageddon-after-dramatic-plunge-in-insect-numbers" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">Here</a> (H/t Sara D).</div>
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: 'guardian text egyptian web', georgia, serif; font-size: small;">"The abundance of flying insects has plunged by three-quarters over the past 25 years, according to a new study that has shocked scientists.</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: 'guardian text egyptian web', georgia, serif; font-size: small;">"Insects make up about two-thirds of all life on Earth [but] there has been some kind of horrific decline,” said Prof Dave Goulson of Sussex University, UK, and part of the team behind the new study. “We appear to be making vast tracts of land inhospitable to most forms of life, and are currently on course for ecological Armageddon. If we lose the insects then everything is going to collapse.”</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white;"> see also<a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/science/species-of-bees-and-other-pollinators-are-shrinking-un-report-warns" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank"> this recent UN report on pollinators.</a></span></div>
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For the bigger picture, its useful to turn to Elizabeth Kolbert who wrote the book,<span style="font-family: trebuchet ms, trebuchet, verdana, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 15.708px;"> <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Sixth-Extinction-Unnatural-History/dp/0805092994" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">The sixth Extinction</a> which won the 2015 Pulizer Prize. <a href="https://livestream.com/thenewschool/fate-of-the-earth-elizabeth-kolbert" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">Here</a> is her presentation at the Johnathon Schell memorial lecture. (described by Dave Roberts as "</span></span><span style="color: #4c4e4d; font-family: balto, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; line-height: 27px;">bracing and free of false-hope homilies".</span><span style="font-family: 'trebuchet ms', trebuchet, verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 15.708px;"> </span><span style="font-family: 'trebuchet ms', trebuchet, verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 18.6925px;"> Here is </span><a href="https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2017/10/11/16457432/elizabeth-kolbert-biodiversity" style="color: #1155cc; font-family: 'trebuchet ms', trebuchet, verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 18.6925px;" target="_blank">an interesting interview she did with </a><span style="font-family: 'trebuchet ms', trebuchet, verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 18.6925px;">Dave Roberts. Its a free ranging discussion going from science to ethics.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 'trebuchet ms', trebuchet, verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 18.6925px;"> Will humans also, go extinct? She's not sure.</span></div>
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"But while we’ve increased our numbers, it has been at the expense of other things. We are simply consuming other species. We are consuming a tremendous amount of the primary productivity of the oceans, for example, just emptying them out.</div>
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And so there’s two questions really, it seems to me. One is will humanity make it through this basically unrestrained growth, both in terms of numbers and in how much we as individuals consume? And meanwhile, what happens to everything else?</div>
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The answer is not necessarily the same. I mean, humanity has found that it can reproduce and consume at a very rapid rate and, depending on how you look at it, the world continues apace — though obviously many people are not doing well, many people are.</div>
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But most other species are not doing too well.</div>
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One thing I always appreciated about your writing is your tragic imagination. I feel like lots of folks in the climate discussion lack that. [When author David Wallace-Wells wrote a <a href="http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2017/07/climate-change-earth-too-hot-for-humans.html" style="background-color: transparent; border-bottom-color: transparent; border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-width: 1px; color: #4f7177; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-weight: 600; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: inherit; vertical-align: inherit;" target="_blank">story on the tragic potential of climate change</a>, he was roundly <a href="https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2017/7/11/15950966/climate-change-doom-journalism" style="background-color: transparent; border-bottom-color: transparent; border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-width: 1px; color: #4f7177; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-weight: 600; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: inherit; vertical-align: inherit;" target="_blank">scolded by the climate positivity police</a>.]</div>
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I really appreciate that. Thank you.</div>
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American culture, in particular, lacks a tragic imagination — an ability to imagine that things can go horribly wrong.</div>
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I completely agree with you. That’s the only way we can explain what’s going on right now.</div>
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A couple years ago, we lived in Rome for a year. In Rome, you are surrounded by the ruins of a civilization. You don’t have the same our-best-days-are-ahead-of-us nonsense.</div>
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So, we can only hope that some sort of Earth religion, or new philosophy will become dominant, before things get too bad. Others argue that such a philosophy may occur, but only after some sort of economic crash. For an interesting "post crash" approach,, em-phasizing a sort of "gift economy", I would recommend a look at <a href="http://www.chelseagreen.com/lean-logic" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">Lean Logic -A Dictionary of the Future and How to survive it.</a> Or the shorter and more readable Surviving the Future.</div>
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In the shorter term, it appears that simplicity is the only way out, as <a href="https://medium.com/insurge-intelligence/the-transition-process-the-simpler-way-perspective-f2a64a0a1d6a" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">this piece</a> by Ted trainer explains</div>
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Walterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18048738723369282833noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1190362411119958387.post-70514167613428831172017-09-20T09:44:00.002-07:002017-09-20T09:44:57.523-07:00People get ready<div dir="auto" style="color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: small;">
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Freddy get ready</div>
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I like to think that things are getting better. After all <a href="https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=2&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwjDr-Pl96zWAhUOwGMKHSs5DNYQFggwMAE&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.greentechmedia.com%2Farticles%2Fread%2Fus-solar-market-grows-95-in-2016-smashes-records&usg=AFQjCNGE9FegUFW9CcmHddw98e9AJ_CPxw" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">solar installations are increasing past expectations</a>. <a href="https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=3&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwjDr-Pl96zWAhUOwGMKHSs5DNYQFgg2MAI&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.vox.com%2Fenergy-and-environment%2F2017%2F8%2F30%2F16224582%2Fwind-solar-exceed-expectations-again&usg=AFQjCNGUhCnigc29fSAPVIlNib3SAKow-Q" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank"> Wind costs are dropping</a>. <a href="https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2017/9/13/16293258/ev-revolution" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">The Chinese have announced they are working on timetable to end the sale of IC vehicles</a>. Co2 emissions have stopped growing and have been <a href="https://www.iea.org/newsroom/news/2017/march/iea-finds-co2-emissions-flat-for-third-straight-year-even-as-global-economy-grew.html" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">flat for the last 3 years</a></div>
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So, we are winning, right? Yes, but slowly.</div>
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But, as Bill McKibben says. "<span style="color: #333333; font-family: 'guardian text egyptian web', georgia, serif; font-size: small;"><a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/sep/11/threat-climate-change-hurricane-harvey-irma-droughts" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank"> Winning slowly is just a different way of losing</a>."</span></div>
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Its a useful idea. To deal with climate change it isn't enough to take a "step in the right direction ". At some point its "game over". It's <a href="http://www.climatecodered.org/2010/09/what-would-3-degrees-mean.html" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">probably 3 degrees - then the feed backs take over and humans loose control. </a> The climate campaign is different than, say, the civil rights struggle, which has been going on (slowly) for at least 150 years. We don't have 150 years. Its not clear how many years we have.</div>
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Why not? Human emissions aren't the only factor at play . We have already triggered other systems. And those other systems have the potential to warm the planet more than we do. For instance even at 1 degree we are replacing ice with "blue water" which is already warming the planet . </div>
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Consider<a href="http://e360.yale.edu/features/as_arctic_ocean_ice_disappears_global_climate_impacts_intensify_wadhams" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank"> this article from Yale 360. </a></div>
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<span style="background-color: #fcfaf6; font-family: ashbury, georgia, serif; font-size: 20.04px;">"When covered almost entirely by ice in summer — which the Arctic was for tens of thousands of years — water temperatures there didn’t generally rise above freezing. Now, as the open Arctic Ocean absorbs huge amounts of solar radiation in summer, water temperatures </span><a href="http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2014/20141217_arctic_report_card_2014.html" style="background-color: #fcfaf6; border-bottom-color: rgb(235, 228, 228); border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-width: 1px; color: #ec5240; font-family: ashbury, georgia, serif; font-size: 20.04px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;" target="_blank">are climbing by several degrees Fahrenheit</a><span style="background-color: #fcfaf6; font-family: ashbury, georgia, serif; font-size: 20.04px;">, with some areas showing increases of 7 degrees F above the long-term average. </span></blockquote>
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<span style="background-color: #fcfaf6; font-family: ashbury, georgia, serif; font-size: 20.04px;">Such changes mean that a system that was once a vast air conditioner has started to turn into a heater. Just how much extra heat are the dark waters of Arctic Ocean in summer adding to the planet? One </span><a href="https://scripps.ucsd.edu/biblio/observational-determination-albedo-decrease-caused-vanishing-arctic-sea-ice" style="background-color: #fcfaf6; border-bottom-color: rgb(235, 228, 228); border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-width: 1px; color: #ec5240; font-family: ashbury, georgia, serif; font-size: 20.04px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;" target="_blank">recent study</a><span style="background-color: #fcfaf6; font-family: ashbury, georgia, serif; font-size: 20.04px;"> estimates that it’s equivalent to adding another 25 percent to global greenhouse emissions. "</span></blockquote>
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<span style="background-color: #fcfaf6; font-family: ashbury, georgia, serif; font-size: 20.04px;"> </span> McKibben suggests that the situation is analogous to a person with with an unhealthy diet, and heart trouble, who is already experiencing symptoms. We are already sick, but we won't change our ways. Why not?<br /><br /> It goes against the way we would like to see ourselves - rational actors, who respond to information by taking appropriate action. Perhaps that isn't really who we are?<br /><br /> There are lots of theories . Perhaps most of us really are rational, but the capitalists, or capitalism, is distorting things. Thus <a href="https://theintercept.com/2017/09/11/irma-donald-trump-tax-cuts-climate-change-republican-ideology-capitalism/" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">Naomi Klein,says</a> </div>
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"In short, climate change detonates the ideological scaffolding on which contemporary conservatism rests. To admit that the climate crisis is real is to admit the end of their political and economic project. That’s why the right is in rebellion against the physical world (which is what prompted hundreds of thousands of scientists around the world to participate in the March for Science in April 2017, collectively defending a principle that really shouldn’t need defending: that knowing as much as possible about our world is a good thing). Yet there is a logical reason why science has become such a battle zone: because it is revealing again and again that pro-corporate business as usual leads to a species-threatening catastrophe.<br /><br />And this isn’t only about the right — it’s also about the center. What mainstream liberals have been saying about climate change for decades is that we simply need to tweak the existing system here and there and everything will be fine. You can have Goldman Sachs capitalism plus solar panels. But at this stage, the challenge we are up against is much deeper than that.</div>
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<span style="color: #444444; font-family: swiftneueltw01, georgia, serif; font-size: 23.8px; letter-spacing: 0.238px; line-height: 1.5;"> </span>In one sense, i tend to agree, that the "denial" is not limited to the right wing. There is more than one type of denial. The hard denial of the right denies the evidence, but there is also the <a href="http://www.humanitystest.com/the-soft-climate-change-denial-process/" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">"soft denial" which denies that the solution would require significant lifestyle changes</a>.. Unfortuneately its not clear to me that a socialist system would be willing to forgo growth, and that's what it would take</div>
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<span style="line-height: normal;">Another theory is </span><a href="http://cassandralegacy.blogspot.com/2017/09/a-depressed-man-with-smiling-face.html" style="color: #1155cc; line-height: normal;" target="_blank">suggested by Jorgen Randers</a><span style="line-height: normal;">, one of the authors of the Limits to Growth study. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 'trebuchet ms', trebuchet, verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 13.2px; line-height: normal;">"Jorgen Randers' speech at the Summer School at the Club of Rome has been dramatically different from the standard speech dealing with sustainability. Randers defined himself as a "depressed man with a smiling face" and he summarized his 47 years of work to promote sustainability as an utter failure. "We are worse off now," he said, "than we were 50 years ago. </span></div>
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What went wrong? Randers asked to the audience to propose reasons. He got more than a dozen, from the financial system to greed. But he said that none of these is the real reason. It is not a fault of the government, it is not a fault of corporations, it is not a fault of banks. It is, simply, the fault of people. <b>According to Randers, people are simply unable to postpone their immediate satisfaction for a better future. And that's the problem today as it was 50 years ago.</b></div>
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<span style="color: #222222; font-family: trebuchet ms, trebuchet, verdana, sans-serif; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-size: 13.2px;">Who is he talking about? Perhaps the<a href="http://bright-green.org/2017/07/22/as-the-climate-clock-is-strikes-midnight-its-time-to-look-to-the-morning/#sdfootnote7sym" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank"> 10 percenters</a> who are just doing what seems "normal"</span></span><br />
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<span style="color: #555555; font-family: 'open sans', sans-serif; font-size: 14.28px; text-align: justify;">"A</span><span style="color: #555555; font-family: 'open sans', sans-serif; font-size: 15px; text-align: justify;"> couple of long-haul flights a year, daily car usage, regular shopping sprees and a meaty diet—lifestyle habits that can appear so commonplace in the western world—and even you, well-meaning reader of this article, can realise that you are part of the exclusive club of those responsible for the lion’s share of ecological destruction.</span></div>
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<span style="color: #555555; font-family: 'open sans', sans-serif; font-size: 15px; text-align: justify;">Although individuals belonging to the top 10 percent class can be found on all continents—often well isolated from the life experienced by most of their fellow citizens—they tend to be so widespread in North America and Europe that the characteristics of their lifestyle have come to define local cultures and are very rarely recognised as the idiosyncrasies they in fact are. Indeed, while only 7 percent of Latin Americans, 4 percent of Chinese and 1 percent of Indians and Africans belong to the top 10 percent of global emitters, as many as 60 percent of North Americans and 30 percent of Europeans are reported to emit more than 15 tons of CO2 a year—the threshold at which one begins to earn top-10-percent status.</span><a href="http://bright-green.org/2017/07/22/as-the-climate-clock-is-strikes-midnight-its-time-to-look-to-the-morning/#sdfootnote7sym" name="m_7794421423164492012_m_-8446776523906794207_m_8443516804915812906_m_2501412745310196581_sdfootnote7anc" style="border-image-outset: initial; border-image-repeat: initial; border-image-slice: initial; border-image-source: initial; border-image-width: initial; border: 0px; color: #048000; font-family: 'open sans', sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank"><span style="border-image-outset: initial; border-image-repeat: initial; border-image-slice: initial; border-image-source: initial; border-image-width: initial; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-size: 12px; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; height: 0px; line-height: 1; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">7</span></a><span style="color: #555555; font-family: 'open sans', sans-serif; font-size: 15px; text-align: justify;"> A couple of long-haul flights a year, daily car usage, regular shopping sprees and a meaty diet—lifestyle habits that can appear so commonplace in the western world—and even you, well-meaning reader of this article, can realise that you are part of the exclusive club of those responsible for the lion’s share of ecological destruction.</span></blockquote>
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<span style="color: #555555; font-family: 'open sans', sans-serif; font-size: 15px; text-align: justify;"><b>Meeting the incredibly strict deadline imposed by climate change will require nothing short of a dramatic shift in how we think the human experience, our measures of success and our idea of a life well lived. Holidays to far-away locations, luxurious possessions and ever so frequent splurges—the defining elements of ‘the good life’ as experienced by the 10 percent— are indefensible with a moral compass tuned in to the logic of climate change. </b>On the other hand, earth-regenerative acts, conscious sobriety, community rekindling and active opposition to destructive forces can provide us with what the old world and its promises constantly failed to provide: a life mission, a sense of belonging, and a great source of fulfilment. If we are to collectively survive this century, we will have to embrace our identity as agents of change; as protectors and stewards; as champions of a humanity tuned in to its better nature</span></blockquote>
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So what can we expect? It depends on a number of factors If we continue on the current path, even if the Paris commitments are kept, we will achieve<a href="https://www.climateinteractive.org/programs/scoreboard/" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank"> 3 degrees by 2100.</a> . But there are many other possibilities. Researchers at the Scripps Institute recently ran 1500 simulations, to try to put some perspective on the risks and the probability.. Particularly concerning was a high risk, but lower probability result - <b>an increase of 3 degrees C by 2050. </b> see<a href="http://www.kpbs.org/news/2017/sep/15/scripps-study-theres-chance-climate-change-can-wip/" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank"> here</a>. Full study <a href="http://m.pnas.org/content/early/2017/09/14/1618481114.full" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">here</a><br /><br /></div>
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: georgia, serif; font-size: 15.64px;">The paper, published Thursday says, </span><a href="https://scripps.ucsd.edu/news/new-climate-risk-classification-created-account-potential-existential-threats" style="background-color: white; color: #0079c1; font-family: georgia, serif; font-size: 15.64px; outline: none;" target="_blank">there is a one in 20 chance of catastrophic change by 2050</a><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: georgia, serif; font-size: 15.64px;">, which would mean most people would have problems adapting to the change in climate. There is a smaller chance of an existential change, meaning it would wipe out humanity.</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: georgia, serif; font-size: 15.64px;">When we say 5 percent-probability high-impact event, people may dismiss it as small but it is equivalent to a one-in-20 chance the plane you are about to board will crash,” Veerabhadran Ramanathan, lead study author and a distinguished professor of climate and atmospheric sciences at Scripps said in a press release. “We would never get on that plane with a one-in-20 chance of it coming down but we are willing to send our children and grandchildren on that plane.”</span></div>
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So, are our leaders making plans for such high risk futures? Not really. In fact they are treating the current manifestations - fire, droughts and floods, as temporary problems that can be safely ignored. As Dave Roberts notes <a href="https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2017/9/8/16272538/what-is-worth-saving" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">here</a> , the US has no system for dealing with the escalating climate damages. </div>
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<a href="https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2017/09/17/us/neil-degrasse-tyson-on-climate-change-cnntv/index.html" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">Here's</a> Neil De Grasse Tyson who suggests that the climate is changing too fast for us to address it. That </div>
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"I worry that we might not be able to recover from this because all our greatest cities are on the oceans and water's edges, historically for commerce and transportation," he said.</div>
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"And as storms kick in, as water levels rise, they are the first to go," he said. "And we don't have a system -- we don't have a civilization with the capacity to pick up a city and move it inland 20 miles. That's -- this is happening faster than our ability to respond. That could have huge economic consequences."</div>
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Fast forward a few years. Lets say its 2020. The weather is a little more extreme. FEMA is running from one end of the country to the other. Some city is being evacuated thanks to flood or fire. Now lets add a liquid fuel squeeze to spice it up. There will be<a href="https://electrek.co/2016/10/17/electric-vehicle-sales-have-now-surpassed-500000-total-cars-in-the-us/" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank"> 1 million EV's on the road</a>. But everybody else will still be driving IC vehicles. <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/12/how-america-gets-to-work-in-1-very-long-graph/282349/" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank"> Every morning more than 100 million Americans drive to work</a>. So, any problems with the price or availability of oil, will be a problem.</div>
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Why should there be a problem? Its widely recognized that "conventional" oil peaked in 2005, And "unconventional" may not be far behind.</div>
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<a href="http://www.postcarbon.org/coal-is-a-dinosaur-and-so-is-the-growth-economy/" style="color: #1155cc; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Here'</a><span style="line-height: 1.5;">s Richard Heinberg</span></div>
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"...<span style="color: #3b3b3d; font-family: Arimo, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 22.5px;">oil will start to decline first (due to depletion), probably before 2020, and coal as well (due to policy), with </span><a href="http://peakoilbarrel.com/world-natural-gas-shock-model/" style="border-image-outset: initial; border-image-repeat: initial; border-image-slice: initial; border-image-source: initial; border-image-width: initial; border: 0px; color: #149dc7; font-family: Arimo, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 22.5px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">natural gas growing until roughly 2020-2050</a><span style="color: #3b3b3d; font-family: Arimo, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 22.5px;">, when it peaks globally from depletion. Without strong climate policy, </span><a href="http://energywatchgroup.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/EWG-update2013_long_18_03_2013up1.pdf" style="border-image-outset: initial; border-image-repeat: initial; border-image-slice: initial; border-image-source: initial; border-image-width: initial; border: 0px; color: #149dc7; font-family: Arimo, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 22.5px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">coal peaks anyway</a><span style="color: #3b3b3d; font-family: Arimo, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 22.5px;"> (due to depletion) around 2025. More detail <a href="http://www.postcarbon.org/the-peak-oil-president/" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">here</a> </span></div>
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<span style="line-height: 1.5;">Are we ready for that?</span><span style="color: #444444; font-family: swiftneueltw01, georgia, serif; line-height: 1.5;"><span style="font-size: 23.8px; letter-spacing: 0.238px;"> </span></span>Whats an appropriate response?</div>
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<br /> Dennis Meadows suggest we should focus on "resilience". see <a href="http://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/is-it-too-late-for-sustainable-development-" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">here</a></div>
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<strong style="box-sizing: border-box; color: black; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5em;">You stress the need for resilience. What do you mean by this?</strong></div>
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"Theoretically, resilience is the capacity of a system to absorb shocks and to continue functioning. Now, in practice, what does it mean? There is a fairly well-developed literature around the issue of psychological resilience. The medical community has tried to understand what can let somebody experience, for example, the loss of a loved one, a serious illness or the loss of a job and continue functioning. There is starting to be, particularly since Katrina, a field that looks at community resilience, or the capacity of a town or social community to absorb shocks and continue functioning to fulfill the needs of its members. I am talking about longer-term resilience.<b> I am talking about coping with the permanent loss of cheap energy or the permanent change in our climate and what we can do at the individual, the household, the community and the national level to ensure that—although we don’t know exactly what is going to happen—we will be able to pass through that period still taking care of our basic needs.</b></div>
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<span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: black; font-family: 'Open Sans', sans-serif; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: normal;">Heinberg (<a href="http://www.postcarbon.org/are-we-doomed-lets-have-a-conversation/" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">here</a>) offers a similar prognosis, suggesting a "crash" is inevitable. (</span><a href="https://www.kboo.org/media/59894-are-we-doomed-lets-have-talk-more-climate-disaster-richard-heinberg" style="color: #1155cc; font-family: Arimo, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 22.5px;" target="_blank">Here</a><span style="color: #3b3b3d; font-family: Arimo, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 22.5px;"> is a recent interview of Heinberg on KBOO)</span></div>
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<span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: black; font-family: 'Open Sans', sans-serif; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: normal;"><em style="border-image-outset: initial; border-image-repeat: initial; border-image-slice: initial; border-image-source: initial; border-image-width: initial; border: 0px; color: #3b3b3d; font-family: Arimo, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 22.5px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Are we doing enough?</em><span style="color: #3b3b3d; font-family: Arimo, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 22.5px;"> <b>If “Enough” means “enough to avert a system crash,” then the answer is no: it’s unlikely that anyone can deliver that outcome now.</b> The question should be, What </span><em style="border-image-outset: initial; border-image-repeat: initial; border-image-slice: initial; border-image-source: initial; border-image-width: initial; border: 0px; color: #3b3b3d; font-family: Arimo, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 22.5px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">can</em><span style="color: #3b3b3d; font-family: Arimo, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 22.5px;"> we do—not to save a way of life that is unsalvageable, but to make a difference to the people and other species in harm’s way?</span></span></div>
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<span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: black; font-family: 'Open Sans', sans-serif; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: normal;"> He outlines </span><span style="color: black; font-family: 'Open Sans', sans-serif; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: normal;"> a similar program, </span><a href="http://www.postcarbon.org/are-we-doomed-lets-have-a-conversation/" style="color: #1155cc; font-family: 'Open Sans', sans-serif; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: normal;" target="_blank">here</a></div>
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The first strategy envisions convincing the managers and power holders of the world to invest in a no-regrets insurance plan. Some systems thinkers who understand our linked global crises are offering to come up with a back-pocket checklist for policy makers, for moments when financial or environmental crisis hits: how, under such circumstances, might the managerial elite be able to prevent, say, a stock market crash from triggering food, energy, and social crises as well? A set of back-up plans wouldn’t require detailed knowledge of when or how crisis will erupt. It wouldn’t even require much of a systemic understanding of global overshoot. It would simply require willingness on the part of societal power holders to agree that there are real or potential threats to global order, and to accept the offer of help. At the moment, those pursuing this strategy are working mostly covertly, for reasons that are not hard to discern.</div>
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The second strategy consists of working within communities to build more societal resilience from the ground up. It is easier to get traction with friends and neighbors than with global power holders, and it’s within communities that political decisions are made closest to where the impact is felt. My own organization, Post Carbon Institute, has chosen to pursue this strategy via a series of books, the <a href="http://www.resilience.org/guides/" style="border-image-outset: initial; border-image-repeat: initial; border-image-slice: initial; border-image-source: initial; border-image-width: initial; border: 0px; color: #149dc7; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">Community Resilience Guides</a>; the <a href="http://www.resilience.org/think-resilience/" style="border-image-outset: initial; border-image-repeat: initial; border-image-slice: initial; border-image-source: initial; border-image-width: initial; border: 0px; color: #149dc7; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">“Think Resilience”</a> video series; and our forthcoming compendium, <a href="https://islandpress.org/book/the-community-resilience-reader" style="border-image-outset: initial; border-image-repeat: initial; border-image-slice: initial; border-image-source: initial; border-image-width: initial; border: 0px; color: #149dc7; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank"><em style="border-image-outset: initial; border-image-repeat: initial; border-image-slice: initial; border-image-source: initial; border-image-width: initial; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The Community Resilience Reader</em></a>. Rob Hopkins, who originated the <a href="https://transitionnetwork.org/" style="border-image-outset: initial; border-image-repeat: initial; border-image-slice: initial; border-image-source: initial; border-image-width: initial; border: 0px; color: #149dc7; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">Transition Towns</a> movement, has been perhaps the most public, eloquent, and upbeat proponent of the local resilience strategy, but there are countless others scattered across the globe.</div>
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<span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: black; font-family: 'Open Sans', sans-serif; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: normal;">So, are we ready? not quite</span></div>
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Walterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18048738723369282833noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1190362411119958387.post-51796420870864941682017-08-27T19:20:00.000-07:002017-08-27T19:20:31.931-07:00This is the story of The Hurricane<br />
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It's flooding down in Texas</div>
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-Stevie Ray Vaughn</div>
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They're trying to wash us away </div>
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- Randy Newman</div>
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Greetings</div>
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Once again, the chickens are coming home to roost . What to do? Maybe the force? "Help me Obi Wan Kenobi, you're my only hope". I wonder what our only hope is now?</div>
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I just ran across two articles that illustrate that we have a bit of a blind spit when it comes our "only hope " .</div>
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First Robert Scribbler had <a href="https://robertscribbler.com/2017/08/18/the-present-threat-to-coastal-cities-from-antarctic-and-greenland-melt/" style="color: #1155cc;">a long response in comment section of his blog</a>. He argues against the necessity for "degrowth", ( It was somewhat of a straw man argument argument as it is phrased arguments gains "degrowth alone".) He argues that wind and solar are making great strides in the field of electric generation, and that great leaps can be expected in transportation and industrial use a well. But hidden away in the technical argument is the political reality. -that a world without growth is inconceivable . In other words a technological solution <b>must</b> exist, because degrowth is not politically acceptable . Here is what he says:</div>
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<span style="background-color: #f8f3e4; color: #444444; font-family: georgia, cambria, 'palatino linotype', serif; font-size: 14.6667px;">"But degrowth in energy consumption without renewable alternatives that are capable of filling in the economic activity gap more efficiently would crush the very economic engines that are now capable of performing a complete transformation of the energy system in ever-shrinking time horizons. To be clear, radical de-growth philosophy is little more than an argument for enforced economic austerity at a scale that we have never before seen in the 20th or 21st centuries. And politically, this philosophy would fail as soon as it got out of the gate. A fact that even proponents, if they think for just one second, would realize.</span></div>
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Overall, increases in societal efficiency (as a pure metric) are certainly desirable and attainable — but only on longer time scales unless your ultimate aim is to destroy economies wholesale rather than to transform them. And from the perspective of climate change, there is no way to deal with the problem effectively without a massive renewable energy build out now. For degrowth alone does not remove the very sources of carbon emission — fossil fuels — that are causing the problem.</div>
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Similarly, Dave Roberts argues for a different technological solution, <a href="https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2017/8/18/16166014/negative-emission" style="color: #1155cc;"> suggests that it's time to start talking about negative emissions</a></div>
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<span style="font-family: sans-serif;">Roberts seems to recognize that no amount of solar panel and electric cars can get us to two degrees, and that it would also take a additional significant "degrowth " to actually reduce emissions by the amounts needed. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: sans-serif;">In fact the needed decline rate is so steep Roberts</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #4c4e4d; font-family: balto, helvetica, sans-serif;"> calls that path "ludicrous". </span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #4c4e4d; font-family: balto, helvetica, sans-serif;">"</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #4c4e4d; font-family: balto, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 18px;">If we do </span><em style="color: #4c4e4d; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: inherit; vertical-align: inherit;">not</em><span style="background-color: white; color: #4c4e4d; font-family: balto, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 18px;"> allow negative emissions into the models, they show that to hit our target, emissions have to decline at an absolutely ludicrous rate:</span></div>
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<figure style="background-color: white; color: #4c4e4d; font-family: balto, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; line-height: inherit; margin: 2.2rem 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: inherit;"><span style="display: block; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-style: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: inherit; vertical-align: inherit;"><span style="display: block; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-style: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: inherit; vertical-align: inherit; width: 719.922px;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-style: inherit; line-height: inherit; text-decoration: inherit;">"Absent a meteor wiping out advanced civilization, that’s not going to happen. So, negative emissions it is!"</span></span></span></figure></div>
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So, he favors a slightly more leisurely approach, which admittedly busts the carbon budget. But then, technology steps in and saves the day . We have to have "negative emissions", which means pulling carbon out of the air. . The favorite idea is called. Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Sequestrstion. Or BECCS</div>
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" <span style="background-color: white; color: #4c4e4d; font-family: balto, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 18px;">The idea is that as plants grow, they absorb carbon from the air. When biomass is burned for energy, that carbon is released. If you can capture that released carbon and bury it, you have a net carbon negative process — carbon is removed from the atmosphere.</span></div>
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To bury enough carbon to put the 2C target in reach, BECCS will have to be <em style="font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: inherit; vertical-align: inherit;">massively</em> scaled up, requiring biomass planted and harvested over an area as large as India, or larger. (One reason many scientists, including <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=http://kevinanderson.info/blog/the-hidden-agenda-how-veiled-techno-utopias-shore-up-the-paris-agreement/&source=gmail&ust=1503942711862000&usg=AFQjCNG3KUTm1JIQtJsvBWcRYUxtOSJ2sA" href="http://kevinanderson.info/blog/the-hidden-agenda-how-veiled-techno-utopias-shore-up-the-paris-agreement/" style="background-color: transparent !important; border-bottom-color: transparent; border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-width: 1px; color: #4f7177; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit !important; font-style: inherit; font-weight: 600; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: inherit; vertical-align: inherit;" target="_blank">Kevin Anderson</a>, think it will never happen.) It is a truly gargantuan undertaking."</div>
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He points to <a href="https://www.vox.com/2015/3/11/8190243/carbon-negative-power-plants" style="color: #1155cc;">a nice article by Brad Plummer,</a> which describes how it might work in theory, but notes. </div>
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The sober news is that this technology is still in its infancy, far from commercialization, and expected to be quite expensive.</div>
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<span style="color: #4c4e4d; font-family: balto, helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: inherit;"> Another view, taken by Richard Heinberg, is that we are not going to voluntarily degrow, and that </span>technology<span style="line-height: inherit;"> is not going to save the day.</span></span><span style="color: #4c4e4d; font-family: balto, helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: inherit;"> His most recent article is called " </span><a href="http://www.postcarbon.org/why-climate-change-isnt-our-biggest-environmental-problem-and-why-technology-wont-save-us/" style="color: #1155cc; font-family: balto, helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: inherit;">Why Climate Change is not our biggest environmental problem, and why technology isn't going to save u</a><span style="color: #4c4e4d; font-family: balto, helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: inherit;">s"</span></div>
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<span style="color: #4c4e4d; font-family: balto, helvetica, sans-serif;">"</span><span style="color: #141414; font-family: montserrat, sans-serif; font-size: 16px;">Our core ecological problem is not climate change. It is overshoot, of which global warming is a symptom. Overshoot is a systemic issue. Over the past century-and-a-half, enormous amounts of cheap energy from fossil fuels enabled the rapid growth of resource extraction, manufacturing, and consumption; and these in turn led to population increase, pollution, and loss of natural habitat and hence biodiversity. The human system expanded dramatically, overshooting Earth’s long-term carrying capacity for humans while upsetting the ecological systems we depend on for our survival. Until we understand and address this systemic imbalance, symptomatic treatment (doing what we can to reverse pollution dilemmas like climate change, trying to save threatened species, and hoping to feed a burgeoning population with genetically modified crops) will constitute an endlessly frustrating round of stopgap measures that are ultimately destined to fail."</span></div>
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<span style="color: #4c4e4d; font-family: balto, helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: inherit;"> I've been reading <a href="http://www.simonandschuster.com/books/Why-Buddhism-is-True/Robert-Wright/9781439195451" style="color: #1155cc;">a new book on evolutionary psychology and meditation</a>, which argues that our perceptions are often skewed, due to the way our brains were formed during our evolution. And that we therefore have many fixed ideas that may have been useful for the survival of the species, in an environment totally different than this one. For instance, our love of junk food and drugs, our inclination toward tribalism, and "justified rage", and our delusions about our own abilities, (we all think we are "above average") and actions (we act </span>rationally<span style="line-height: inherit;">) .</span></span></div>
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<span style="color: #4c4e4d; font-family: balto, helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: inherit;"> This got me thinking about how we look at all the coming "hurricanes" , and our faith in our technological salvation. We all seem to share the illusion of agency - i.e.that we are in control. Which reminded me of <a href="http://www.resilience.org/stories/2014-01-21/agency-on-demand-holmgren-hopkins-and-the-historical-problem-of-agency/" style="color: #1155cc;">a </a></span><a href="http://www.resilience.org/stories/2014-01-21/agency-on-demand-holmgren-hopkins-and-the-historical-problem-of-agency/" style="color: #1155cc;">piece<span style="line-height: inherit;"> by Eric Lindberg from a few years ago</span></a>. He was discussing The difference between the peak oil and climate change "narrative" </span></div>
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<span style="color: #141414; font-family: montserrat, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: inherit;">"The limits of agency in peak oil narratives becomes more visible when compared to mainstream liberal environmentalism, for instance. The latter is likely to believe that human ingenuity and innovation, along with our technical prowess provide limitless choices and opportunities to maintain our pre-peak trajectory of growing material prosperity. American ingenuity and our spirit of freedom, they will suggest, allow us to make history as we please, especially when confronted with great challenges. </span></div>
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<span style="color: #141414; font-family: montserrat, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: inherit;"> Peak oilers see this view as hopelessly naïve, an expression of ideological false consciousness: it fails to understand that all the technical prowess that most people believe are a result of our ingeniousness or a free society actually have more to do with our plentiful and growing supply of oil and other natural resources. These techno-optimists don’t, to borrow David Holmgren’s metaphor, understand that wealth comes from holes in the ground—and worse that these same holes in the ground have made possible our freedoms, our privileges, and everything else that they value. They fail to understand that energy is the true mover of history.</span></div>
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<span style="color: #141414; font-family: montserrat, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: inherit;">Peak oil narratives are brutally aware of the limits on human agency. What little agency humans might have can only be achieved by understanding the underlying logic of history and by accepting the limits that logic imposes. When we realize this, we won’t try to grow the economy, develop the “developing world,” depend on genetically modified seeds and chemical fertilizers, look for a new source of fuel on Mars, and so on. Instead we will accept the coming contractions and adapt to them as best we can.</span></div>
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<span style="color: inherit; font-family: montserrat, sans-serif; font-size: inherit;"> Luckily, we don't have very many hurricanes in Oregon. my heart goes out to the folks who are going through Hurricane Harvey. <a href="https://www.charitynavigator.org/index.cfm?bay=content.view&cpid=5239" style="color: #1155cc;">Here</a> is a list of charities highly rated by Charity Navigator for your consideration. Here in Oregon, our " hurricane" is more likely to be a wildfire. the Chetko fire is about 5 miles from Brookings.</span></div>
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Walterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18048738723369282833noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1190362411119958387.post-34227249078023893522017-08-06T15:52:00.000-07:002017-08-06T15:52:20.232-07:00Free riders, death spirals, cabbages and kings<br />
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From all these mistakes</div>
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I don't need no sports car</div>
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Greetings</div>
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Is it <a href="https://www.commondreams.org/news/2017/08/02/earth-exhausted-humans-have-already-consumed-planets-annual-resources" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">overshoot day already</a>? How time flies. Happy Overshoot Day</div>
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"This means that in seven months, we emitted more carbon than the oceans and forests can absorb in a year, we caught more fish, felled more trees, harvested more, and consumed more water than the Earth was able to produce in the same period," World Wildlife Fund and Global Footprint Network <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/earth-overshoot-day-2-august-2017-year-planet-natural-resources-clean-water-soil-air-pollution-wwf-a7872086.html" style="background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #336699;" target="_blank">said</a> in a statement.</div>
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"The costs of this global ecological overspending are becoming increasingly evident around the world," the groups <a href="http://www.footprintnetwork.org/2017/06/27/earth-overshoot-day-2017-2/" style="background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #336699;" target="_blank">added</a>, "in the form of deforestation, drought, fresh-water scarcity, soil erosion, biodiversity loss, and the buildup of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere."</div>
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<a href="https://www.commondreams.org/news/2016/08/08/humanity-just-ate-through-planets-annual-resource-budget-faster-ever" style="background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #336699;" target="_blank">Last year</a>, Earth Overshoot Day fell on August 8, an indication that the world's population is accelerating the pace with which it blows through the planet's annual resource budget from year to year. </div>
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Just another reminder of the need to turn the "SS Industrial Economy" away from the iceberg, and quickly. But just how quickly can we turn, and who's going to pay the bill?</div>
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Let's take a look at utilities. For years their mandate was to provide power reliably, and a low cost. For their troubles, they we entitled to a reasonable profit, as determined by the PUC. Large centralized coal and gas plants worked pretty well . They lasted a long time, so construction costs were spread out, and a big chunk of the costs were fuel, which didn't have to be paid upfront. </div>
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But, times change . Now people want clean energy. Some people want to generate their own energy and use the utility as aback up. Some people want to have their own back up. Some want to walk away. Now , with the advent of cheap rooftop solar, and cheaper batteries , it is much more feasible for customers to walk away, especially in sunny states . For some customers, that is. Customers who can afford the up front costs . But once they have left, who will be left to pay for grid, and all the sunk costs that the utility has in large centralized plants? The remaining ratepayers ? The government ?</div>
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Sound familiar? Kind of like the medical insurance mess we are in. Are we going to have a "hookup mandate", like the "medical insurance mandate"?</div>
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In <a href="https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2017/7/7/15927250/utilities-rooftop-solar-batteries" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">this post</a> Dave Roberts explains the utilities (and our) conundrum. And <a href="https://www.vox.com/2015/9/11/9306247/utilities-21st-century" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">here </a>he suggest ways to reorganize our relationship with electricity and the grid. .</div>
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There's a similar problem with transportation. Robert Scribbler has an enthusiastic piece about the Tesla, calling it a <a href="https://robertscribbler.com/2017/08/02/a-beautiful-machine-to-change-the-world-model-3-to-transform-global-automobile-markets-open-pathway-for-rapid-energy-transition/" style="color: #1155cc;">Beautiful Machine to Change the World</a> It is p[retty. And it will go pretty fast ( 140 mph, 0-60 in 5.5 secs) He points to a study that says electric vehicles could reduce our CO2 emissions to <span style="background-color: #f8f3e4; color: #444444; font-family: "georgia" , "cambria" , "palatino linotype" , serif; font-size: 14.6667px;"> <a href="https://www.nrdc.org/experts/luke-tonachel/study-electric-vehicles-can-dramatically-reduce-carbon-pollution" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">between 1/2 and 1/10th that of a fossil fuel vehicle including manufacturing</a>. </span> But, we have a huge investment in the current transportation system. In order to move to an electricity based system we will need to scrap a lot of infrastructure - like fueling stations , fuel trucks, tankers, tank farms, refineries, and of course cars.</div>
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Let's look at cars. The current fleet is overwhelmingly fossil based - <a href="https://arstechnica.com/cars/2017/06/there-are-more-than-2-million-electric-vehicles-on-the-road-around-the-world/" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">although there are 2 million EVS they only amount to .02% of the fleet.</a>. Sales of EVS are growing rapidly, but they have been unable to catch up to sales of regular IC vehicles. In fact it may take more than a decade for the EV sales to stop the continuing growth in the total number of fossil fueled vehicles. Here is <a href="http://www.energytrendsinsider.com/2016/07/29/why-i-am-skeptical-of-electric-vehicles/" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">an interesting article from Robert Rapier,</a> where he points out that EVS are not substituting for IC sales, but are merely supplementing them. </div>
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Its a pretty straightforward arithmetic problem. Every year a huge number of cars are sold. Some are replacing cars that are junked. Some are to meet the demand of new drivers. Last year <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/2016-was-a-record-breaking-year-for-global-car-sales-and-it-was-almost-entirely-driven-by-china-2017-1" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">88 million cars were sold, up 4.8% from the previous year. Less than 1 million were EVS . </a> That 4.8% growth represents the new demand. So let's say car sales grow 3% next year. So that's (88*.03) =2.64 million new cars added! Let's say the <a href="https://ngtnews.com/report-global-ev-market-continue-remarkable-growth" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">EV growth rate is 25%</a>, so 950,000 units would be sold. Still more IC than EV! The next year its around 3 million and 1 million. The tortoise and the hare. At some point, the EV sales catch up, and then, hopefully, oil use begins to drop. But, as noted, that may be ten years from now.</div>
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(I am going to ignore, for the time being that cars consume only 50% of the oil used , and that , so far, there is no mass producued electricity based, tractor trailer, , agricultural machinery, airplane, container ship etc) , </div>
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And there is still a question of how much, and how soon, the EV sales would reduce fossil fuel consumption. See <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/quora/2014/05/02/electric_vehicles_how_much_energy_would_we_need_to_fuel_them.html" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">this study</a> which suggests that if 75% of the fleet were electric tomorrow, CO2 emissions would drop <b>by less than 20%</b>. Why is that? Well, the electrical system just isn't that clean yet.. </div>
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Is the electric system likely to become clean quickly? Not as quickly as we'd like to imagine. The size of the investment is mind boggling. See <a href="https://theconversation.com/phasing-out-fossil-fuels-for-renewables-may-not-be-a-straightforward-swap-54108" style="color: #1155cc;">here</a></div>
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"...phasing out fossil fuels over 50 years – wind and solar plants need to be installed at eight to ten times current rates by 2035.</div>
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Financially, this corresponds with capital investment in wind and solar PV plants plus batteries of around US$3 trillion per year (in 2015 dollars) and average lifetime capital cost in the order of US$5 trillion to US$6 trillion per year.</div>
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For comparison, in 2014 <a href="https://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/WEIO2014.pdf" style="color: #557585; outline: none; white-space: pre-wrap; word-wrap: break-word;">the International Energy Agency forecast global investment for all energy supply in 2035 at US$2 trillion per year</a>.</div>
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This implies that total expenditure on energy supply will increase its share of world spending, reducing scope for other expenditure. "</div>
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Here's an odd note- even though renewables have been growing steadily, <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/energy-production-and-changing-energy-sources/" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">the percent of electric generation by fossil fuels has not changed in the last 10 years.</a></div>
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<span style="font-family: "helvetica neue" , "helvetica" , "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 17px;">"...over the last decade (2005-2015) the share of renewables in our electricity mix has increased by approximately 5-6 percent. This is good news. However, over this same period, the share from nuclear production has decreased by almost exactly the same amount (5-6 percent)."</span></div>
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So, are EV's the solution? They might help, but not as much as we'd like to believe. We actually need to get out of our cars altogether.. Here is <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/aug/01/car-chokehold-britain-polluted-inefficient-transport-system-motor-industry" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">a nice piece by George Monbiot </a> on our transportation system. His conclusion?</div>
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"Electric cars solve only part of the problem. They occupy less air, but just as much road and parking space. The resources required to manufacture them – and the volume of mines and ports and processing plants that wreck rare habitats around the world – might even intensify. While the total carbon emissions and air pollution caused by electric cars will be lower than those the fossil system produces, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/jul/13/electric-car-boom-power-demand-national-grid-hinkley-point-c" style="background-clip: initial; background-color: transparent; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border-bottom-color: rgb(220, 220, 220); border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-width: 0.0625rem; color: #005689;" target="_blank">electricity use will have to rise</a>. If you are among those who support electric cars but oppose nuclear power, you may have to reconsider one of your positions.</div>
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So let’s explore some pollution solutions that change this ridiculous system, rather than extending it indefinitely. Why not – through shifting road space from cars to bicycles in the form of safe cycle lanes – aim to make cycling the main form of urban transport? Why not launch a scrappage scheme that trades cars for public transport tokens</div>
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See also <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/aug/04/fewer-cars-not-electric-cars-beat-air-pollution-says-top-uk-adviser-prof-frank-kelly" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">this</a> suggesting that we don't need "different" cars as much as we need "fewer cars"</div>
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"Oliver Hayes, Friends of the Earth air pollution campaigner, said: “Electric cars are critical in the fight against climate change and deadly air pollution, but they’re not a panacea. We must now build the infrastructure that reassures ordinary people that cycling and walking is safe, and invest in public transport that is consistently clean, cheap and reliable.”</div>
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<span style="font-family: "lucida grande" , "lucida sans unicode" , "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 11.664px; text-align: justify;"> It seems the road between here and <a href="http://ourrenewablefuture.org/" style="color: #1155cc;">Our Renewable Future </a>is filled with potholes. We'd like to ride in style, and not have to give up any of our perks. But if we don't change our ways, by the time we get to that golden future, what do you suppose the world will look like?</span></div>
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Walterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18048738723369282833noreply@blogger.com0