Wednesday, May 15, 2013

From a tiny acorn

* NB.   I am on vacation so postings will be light for 2-3 weeks*


        The new meme is that the coming decline in oil production will not be a problem.  Why?  Because the market will anticipate it and already have different energy sources, and infrastructure in place.   In fact, some say the peak will occur, because of a lack of demand, not a lack of supply.
     So, how's that coming along?

Year to date, EV sales are up 208% 2012 to 2013. PHEVs are up 38%.

That's nice, but how many cars were sold?  Well, about 50,000.     And the non electric sales?   More like 14 million.   It'll take a lot more doubling before EV's start crowding out gas vehicles.

     50k, 100k, 200k, 400k, 800k.  1.6m.  At this doubling rate ( unlikely). We hit 10% by 2018.   Can tight oil push back the decline until then?   Who knows.

        Below, Heading Out of the oildrum, notes a similar lack of interest in natural gas vehicles.  There are now only 20,000 on the road.  

         Why? The same old issues.    Range problems.  Little infrastructure.


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