Wednesday, January 19, 2011

I'm waiting for my man

He's never early, he's always late
First thing you learn is you've always got to wait
      - Velvet Underground

Greetings Peaksters

             We certainly live in interesting times.  Now that the peak has been recognized ,
 see e.g.     all we can hope for is a smooth transition to the next thing.  Unfortunately, we aren't ready for that transition  yet (see below  Hybrids sales predicted to be 10% of car sales by 2015 , but in 2010 hybrid sales fall for the third straight year, while sales of 'regular" cars increased ).   We have no idea how much longer we will be on the plateau,  but we know that once the the decline starts, its going to tale a whole lot of Volts to keep the ship upright.     

           In the meantime, all we can do is beg OPEC  for one more fix

The head of the International Energy Agency (IEA) has warned that current oil price levels are “alarming” and could have a negative impact if allowed to spiral upwards.With oil prices surging towards $100 a barrel, market eyes are on Opec to see whether the producers group will boost crude supplies to dampen prices.
IEA executive director Tanaka told reporters on the sidelines of an industry conference that Opec "needs to show more flexibility" in increasing oil production according to Reuters. "If the current price continues, it will have a negative impact," he said.
Oil hit a record $147 a barrel in 2008 and there are fears that prices could rise significantly above $100 if Opec does not signal its intent to lift supplies.

A recent J.D. Power study is suggesting that by 2015, three million vehicles that use some sort of battery power will be on the road, and 1.4 million of those will be hybrids.
If that number turns out to be correct, that would be darn close to 10 percent of the market for hybrids. However, there's no guarantee that hybrid sales will reach that mark, since just over 300,000 hybridswere sold in 2009.
The most obvious challenge is the simple fact that all sorts of unpredictable events could occur in the next five years. A different alternative technology, changing economic conditions, and other factors could put a dent in hybrid sales--or could boost them even further.
A prediction is just that. And jumping from 300,000 sales to 1.4 million in six years is quite the challenge. Bookmark this page and check back in 2015 to see just how right or wrong J.D. Power turns out to be.

Hybrid car sales fell for the third consecutive year, dropping nearly 6 percent in a year when overall vehicle sales jumped by 11 percent. That harsh reality could give ammunition to hybrid critics who argue that gas-electric vehicles were never viable, or that they only serve as a bridge to more robust vehicle electrification such as electric cars. But a deeper analysis reveals why hybrid car losses probably leveled off in 2010, and sales are poised for growth in the coming years.  


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